Vesper’s Post

Butter prices have eased across global markets, with producer indices and dairy auctions alike pointing to softer conditions. Oversupply in key regions and moderating demand are driving this trend, giving procurement teams some short-term relief after months of volatility and high prices. Here’s how procurement teams may feel the impact: ▪️Stronger supply pressure – Elevated milk and cream output across the US and EU is boosting butter availability, easing input costs for buyers ▪️Soft bulk demand – Weaker foodservice and industrial demand means suppliers are more open to negotiation on volumes and pricing ▪️Global competitiveness – Lower wholesale prices could encourage exports, creating regional availability shifts depending on trade flows ▪️Short-term relief, long-term volatility – High feed and energy costs still threaten to tighten supply, so buyers should balance immediate savings with longer-term risk planning Even though there is some breathing room now, it remains important to stay alert on upstream costs and demand changes. Anvil’s Market Insights and Inflation module helps procurement teams track these macroeconomic changes and their category-level impacts, ensuring decisions are grounded in real-time data.

🔍 A Grain of Truth in Rice – The Bullwhip Effect in Supply Chains A simple customer request for 1 extra bag of rice can trigger a ripple effect across the supply chain: • Retailer over-orders “just in case” • Distributor scales up significantly • Manufacturer ramps up production • Supplier ends up pushing thousands of additional units ➡️ This phenomenon, known as the Bullwhip Effect, leads to: • Excess inventory buildup • Inefficiency and waste • Stockouts in other parts of the chain In today’s volatile market, the challenge isn’t just meeting demand — it’s ensuring demand signals remain accurate and transparent across the chain. Key Takeaway: Collaboration, real-time data, and visibility are essential to smooth out demand fluctuations and avoid costly distortions. 💡 As procurement and supply chain professionals, we must ask: How can we strengthen demand forecasting and improve upstream-downstream communication to minimize these distortions? #SupplyChain #Procurement #InventoryManagement #BullwhipEffect #Efficiency

Last week a procurement manager told me half-joking: “We don’t make budgets anymore… we forecast the weather.” 🌦️ And honestly, he’s not wrong. In pet nutrition sourcing, prices move up and down every week — freight, currency, even seasonal demand. It’s exhausting. From what I’ve seen, a few things help keep costs steady: 1️⃣ Don’t just chase multiple suppliers. It often creates more chaos than security. 2️⃣ Consolidating ingredients under one roof gives stronger bargaining power (and fewer emails at 2am). 3️⃣ Long-term partnerships matter more than spot buys. Price lock-ins + compliance docs ready upfront make QA and finance teams breathe easier. 4️⃣ Flexible MOQs are underrated — especially for pilot runs that can’t carry huge inventory. Price swings will never disappear. But cost overruns don’t have to be the rule. 👉 Curious — what’s been the biggest pressure on your procurement costs this year? Freight, currency, or raw material prices? #GlobalProcurement #PetNutrition #SupplyChain #B2BTrade

How does a big box retailer keep shelves stocked when supply chains collapse? They plan ahead... A well known big box retailer partnered with Expana to gain clarity in highly volatile markets. Here’s what stood out from what they shared with us: Natural disasters or shipping delays? They don’t guess the impact. They rely on proprietary benchmarks and insights produced by our talented team of analysts, providing an objective view on the market. Disruptions in one region? They pivot sourcing across the globe thanks to comprehensive coverage. Fragmented data vendors? They consolidated into one source for price forecasts, cost models and benchmarks. What that means: Shelves stay stocked in volatile markets. Everyday low prices are protected because negotiations start from audited, transparent data. Teams gain back time and focus because workflows are simplified. If you’ve ever felt blindsided by price spikes or supply shocks, then this story is a masterclass on the value of independent commodity intelligence, and the impact it can drive. In increasingly volatile markets, this sets a new benchmark for any agri food supply chain that wants to be resilient. Read the full case study here: https://lnkd.in/eEjhcRhW

📌 Day 18 of 100 Days Challenge ➡️ How do FMCG companies tackle inflation and raw material costs? ▪️ For tackling inflation and raw material costs, companies adopt some smart strategies ▪️ Price Optimization: The First step is to slightly increase the price, so that companies cover their input costs. But price optimization is a careful process because it affects consumer sentiment. ▪️ Shrinkflation and Pack Size Management: companies generally reduce the product size of the pack, so that consumer demand is sustained and companies launch new small-sized packs for target and budget-conscious customers. ▪️ Supply Chain Efficiency: To control the cost of raw material, companies efficiently manage the supply chain. Companies use commodity hedging and introduce new sourcing strategies so that the cost fluctuation impact would be low. ▪️ Market segmentation and consumer focus: companies customized their products and prices for different groups of customers, like the rural and urban markets, offering different packages. ➡️ For Instance: Aditya is the owner of a chocolate company. The cocoa price has increased; he has two options: either he would increase the price of the chocolate or reduce the size of the chocolate pack. So that his profit would not be affected as well, and he can launch a new premium chocolate to make a good profit. #Finance #Equity #FMCGSector

Your business is impacted by market movements, right? If you know where, when and how big the impact will be - feel free to leave because there is little value we can add. Bold statement - but sometimes being direct also helps to be really clear what value you can offer and where not, especially on stage at DPW with 1500 procurement experts in front of you. Thanks for all the great companies in consumer goods, food and beverage and specialty chemicals joining my presentation. Here are the three main takeaways: 1. All businesses are impacted by commodities—but where, how much, and when?Understanding your true exposure is the first step to managing it. 2. Margins are being squeezed. If you’re not actively tracking and managing your main cost drivers, you’re flying blind. 3. Talking to Finance, Commercial, and Strategy about procurement impact? Easier said than done—until you have the right data to tell the story. Connecting the dots between market indexes, materials you buy and the impact on your cost per finished good SKU is not easy. Especially in volatile, complex environments. That’s where we bring some clarity. No crystal ball, but radical transparency, focus on foresights/the future and credibility towards stakeholders. That’s what you can expect! Thanks for joining my presentation!

Make smarter buys in specialty oils. Learn how a more transparent supply chain can cut detentions, prove compliance, and keep product moving. Link to article in the comments below.

In food auctions, the 'lowest price wins' approach often proves costly. While price-only deals may seem appealing on paper, they can lead to issues like substitutions, missed deliveries, and compromised product quality. Research consistently shows that evaluating factors beyond price—such as reliability, specification fit, and cold chain management—can significantly reduce failures. With the FAO estimating that around 14% of food is lost between harvest and retail, the importance of thorough supplier evaluation becomes clear. A reliable supplier with a proven track record of quality and timely delivery can protect profit margins, brand reputation, and product shelf life. Investing a bit more can prevent costly losses and customer dissatisfaction. How do you strike a balance between price and reliability when awarding contracts?

Procurement Outlook – Week Ahead 🥦 Menu volatility: Brassica supply remains tight; keep alternates ready and avoid rigid size specs. ⚡ Energy watch: Europe’s gas storage is on track for strong October fill, reducing risk of last year’s price spikes and keeping energy-linked surcharges in check. 🌾 Grains & bakery inputs: Global wheat output revisions support stable flour pricing. No immediate cuts expected, monitor monthly trackers and press for surcharge transparency. 🛒 Consumer demand lens: August retail uplift looks positive, but the broader 3-month trend is flat. Plan promotions/value ranges carefully for schools and care as households manage budgets into month-end.

Procurement Outlook – Week Ahead 🥦 Menu volatility: Brassica supply remains tight; keep alternates ready and avoid rigid size specs. ⚡ Energy watch: Europe’s gas storage is on track for strong October fill, reducing risk of last year’s price spikes and keeping energy-linked surcharges in check. 🌾 Grains & bakery inputs: Global wheat output revisions support stable flour pricing. No immediate cuts expected, monitor monthly trackers and press for surcharge transparency. 🛒 Consumer demand lens: August retail uplift looks positive, but the broader 3-month trend is flat. Plan promotions/value ranges carefully for schools and care as households manage budgets into month-end.