Alpha Traders Digest

Why are corporations stacking sats while national BTC reserve planning stalls? As the FOMC meeting draws near, we dive into these issues and more in this edition of ATD.

TL;DR

• Wen Bitcoin Reserve? Executive Order on Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR) deadline passes with no official statement.

• ~$3 billion in ETF inflows - does smart money know something we don't?

• Art of the deal? A slew of new trade deals are being proposed by key U.S. trading partners.

• Sell in May and go away? Diving into May's 'bearish' seasonality trend.

• ~5% of bitcoin (BTC) remain. Corporate America competes to stack-sats.

• Fed cutting rates? It might be later rather than sooner.

Market pulse

BTC trend status: BTC has recently tested the upper boundary of a previously-defined supply zone (~$94-$98,000) following a breakout above the descending trendline (Jan 2025 highs). Price is now above the 50-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), confirming the sustained move out of the prior multi-week consolidation range.

Notable resistance (R) levels:

• R1: ~$98,000 (upper edge of the supply zone and late Feb highs)

• R2: ~$100,000 (psychological price level)

Key support (S) levels:

• S1: ~$94,000 (lower edge of supply zone)

• S2: ~$90,500 (200-day SMA)

• S3: ~$87,100 (50-day SMA)

Upcoming catalysts: Market focus remains on trade negotiation and rate cut headlines, which could provide the momentum needed for BTC to break and hold above the current supply zone.

BTC has decisively closed above the long-term descending channel from January and is now consolidating within the highlighted supply zone, below the $98,000 resistance. Since late April, BTC price action has been confined to a narrow range between roughly $93,000 and $97,900, repeatedly testing the upper boundary of the supply zone but failing to sustain a daily close above $95,600. This consolidation phase reflects a market at an inflexion point: profit-taking has increased as BTC approaches $98,000, signaling the presence of significant sell-side pressure.

Despite this, BTC has held above key levels like the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, maintaining its structure above the critical $94,000 region. This technical setup points to an imminent breakout or breakdown. A decisive daily close above $95,600 could open the path toward $98,000 and the psychological $100,000 level, while failure to hold $93,000 would expose BTC to downside targets at $90,000 and $88,000, where previous breakouts offer support.

Market dynamics and developments

• SBR deadline comes and goes: According to a previously signed executive order, Treasury Secretary Bessent was due to deliver an evaluation for establishing the U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve on May 5. With the U.S. government already holding nearly 200,000 BTC, this plan would've signaled a potential paradigm shift in how sovereigns treat digital assets. Unfortunately, the deadline passed without any official statement. BTC's reaction to the missed deadline appears muted, likely overshadowed by the intense focus on the Federal Reserve's policy decision and other pressing macroeconomic factors like trade tensions. While states like New Hampshire have signed the crypto reserve bill into law, it remains to be seen if others will follow suit.

• Institutional inflows drive resilience: BTC’s ability to hold above $94,000 is underpinned by robust institutional participation. In late April, U.S.-listed BTC ETFs attracted almost $3 billion in new inflows, reflecting renewed confidence from hedge funds and asset managers. This institutional demand has helped BTC shake off April’s volatility and maintain its position near the top of the supply zone, even as retail flows remain more cautious.

• Trade negotiations make headway: Amid the 90-day tariff pause, there've been talks about negotiation renewals as deals are proposed by trade partners like India and Vietnam. Despite this optimism, prediction markets have assigned ~50% probability of a deal by July, keeping macro uncertainty elevated. These tensions have contributed to short-term volatility as traders are undecided on whether to be bullish for risk-on assets like crypto.

• The facts with May seasonality: Historically, May is perceived to be a bearish month for risk-on assets, with BTC closing red in several recent years. This includes a ~35% drop in 2021, a ~16% decline in 2022, and a ~7% decrease in 2023. However, the complete historical picture is more nuanced, with the average May return across BTC's history being positive at ~17%, making it the fifth strongest month historically. This mixed performance suggests considering broader market conditions rather than relying solely on the "Sell in May" adage that originates from TradFi.

• Corporations are stacking sats: A high-stakes BTC arms race is intensifying across corporate America as Strategy and Semler Scientific aggressively expand their BTC treasuries. Strategy recently acquired 1,895 BTC at an average price of $95,167 per coin, bringing its holdings to 555,450 BTC. Meanwhile, Semler Scientific has emerged as a lesser-known contender, purchasing 167 additional BTC for $16.2 million, cementing its position as the fourth-largest bitcoin treasury company in America. This corporate accumulation race is creating significant buy pressure in a market where exchange balances are already dwindling, potentially supporting Bitcoin's consolidation near all-time highs despite broader macro uncertainties.

Worth watching: Will the Fed cut rates?

All eyes are on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting scheduled for May 7. Despite mounting political pressure for lower rates from President Trump, the Fed is widely expected to hold rates steady this month. As inflation keeps above the Fed's 2% target and unemployment numbers stays resilient at 4.2% unemployment, Fed Chair Jerome Powell will likely cite these data points on why interest rates don't urgently need to be cut. The main complication stems from ongoing tariff uncertainty, which could both stoke inflation and dampen growth. Powell has signaled a “wait-and-see” stance, stressing the need for more data to gauge the full impact of tariffs through the rest of 2025.

While markets have largely priced in unchanged rates for this meeting, traders will scrutinize the FOMC statement and Powell’s press conference for any clues on future moves. Rate cut expectations have shifted, with markets now eyeing a greater likelihood of easing by July rather than June. Any dovish signals tied to growth concerns could lift risk-on assets, while a hawkish tone focused on inflation may keep markets cautious.

More: Fed meetings and crypto prices

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