Build Commercial Optionality for Times of Economic Volatility

“Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.” 

This oft-quoted Mike Tyson sentiment, has never been more relevant for CMOs and Modern Marketers. The global economy appears increasingly shaky, with forces seemingly determined to inject uncertainty into markets. From sticky inflation, restrictive interest rates and supply chain fragility to geopolitical tensions and trade policy-induced instability, companies are facing an environment where the wrong marketing strategies and commercial moves by CMOs and Marketers can be greatly amplified and become especially costly.

Key Takeaway: It’s relatively "easy" to conclude that a commercial strategy is strong and effective when markets are frothy, demand signals are clear, and leads flow smoothly through the funnel. But the true test of the mettle of any commercial model isn’t how well it performs in ideal conditions—it’s how it holds up when uncertainty strikes. 

Of particular note, periods of volatility can expose the cracks in go-to-market (GTM), go-to-customer (GTC) and other commercial strategies. When customer demand softens, it can set off a dreaded race to the bottom, where customer acquisition costs spike and pricing power dissipates as the basis of competition and differentiation shifts to pricing. As traditional growth levers become less effective, companies relying too heavily on customer acquisition can find themselves scrambling with a limited set of options—ultimately leading to cuts to the very marketing and sales budgets needed to reverse downward trends.

Volatility Is Inevitable—Stagnation Doesn’t Have to Be

The reality is that many commercial models are built for “perfection”, a rational and symmetrical economic world that candidly doesn’t really exist. Markets are never static, economic conditions are rarely “ideal”, and competitors are never sitting idle. Companies must craft and deploy commercial models that can flex and adapt to volatility, not buckle under it. Super-optimized for customer acquisition, the conversion ubiquitous funnel (or marketing funnel or sales funnel, depending on what you call it), the darling of many commercial teams, is particularly vulnerable in times of economic uncertainty, where customer behaviors, preferences and demand can fluctuate unpredictably.

However, economic volatility does not have to stall growth or constrain revenue performance. Instead, it presents an opportunity for the most ambitious of companies, the outliers called Customer Excellence Enterprises (CXEs) and those aspiring to be like them, to shift toward what could be the most capital-efficient and strategically sound growth commercial strategy around—customer centricity, powered by the commercial flywheel. The ultimate outcome of an essential, customer-driven truth that customer behaviors, needs, expectations and triggers are different at different stages of the customer lifecycle, this more holistic approach ensures that companies not only survive periods of economic instability but power through them, emerging stronger, with momentum when market conditions rebound.

Building Commercial Optionality Through the Flywheel

The fundamental premise behind the evolution of commercial operating models—from the traditional funnel to the bow tie to the holistic commercial flywheel—is defined by a simple but powerful formula: 3 > 1. Instead of relying solely on acquisition (the one-dimensional focus of the funnel), the flywheel integrates three critical commercial dimensions—acquisition, retention, and expansion—to create a more capital-efficient and resilient approach to growth. This provides companies with the agility and optionality needed to navigate disruption, protect revenue, and accelerate growth when the market rebounds.

• The commercial flywheel isn’t just a structural shift—it’s a fundamental redefinition of how companies go-to-market (GTM) and go-to-customer (GTC) to create and sustain growth.
• Unlike the funnel, which is heavily dependent on marketing and sales spend, the flywheel is powered by customer experience and experiential factors—driven by the choices companies make about how they view, value, and treat customers.
• Effectively, the flywheel converts customer experience into a highly differentiated commercial asset, where trust, simplicity, personalization, advocacy, and engagement become the fuel for revenue momentum and organic growth.

What Can CMOs and Marketers Do?

The activation of this commercial model by CMOs and Marketers is not theoretical; it’s a necessary adaptation in periods of economic volatility that create unpredictable commercial environments, where optionality is the key to immediate term revenue performance, medium-term momentum, and long-term viability. Specifically, the flywheel expands growth options beyond the funnel, creating a dynamic, self-reinforcing, experience-led commercial operating system that allows companies to:

• Rather than being locked into high-cost/high-risk customer acquisition, companies can shift focus and resources toward retention and expansion strategies, which are often significantly less risky and more capital efficient.
• Deepening existing customer relationships, enable companies to minimize churn and associated customer reacquisition costs, reduce customer value-at-risk CVaR), and create a more secure and predictable revenue base during more volatile periods. 
• When demand and new customer acquisition slows, maximizing the value of customers already won provides a viable path to stabilize and reset for growth.
• Instead of scrambling to replace lost customers, companies with a strong flywheel already have momentum—allowing them to adjust quickly as market conditions improve.
• Creating this level of flexibility is critical in times of stagnation or decline, enabling companies, CXEs in particular, to work their way out—one smart, calculated move at a time.

The commercial flywheel is like playing on a 3D chessboard, giving CMOs and marketers more expansive terrain to fluidly deploy resources where they create the most financial impact.

Instead of being locked into a narrow acquisition-heavy strategy, the flywheel provides CMOs and marketers with strategic optionality, allowing companies to shift to what works dynamically—whether capturing new or unexpected demand, reinforcing retention, deepening customer relationships, or driving expansion programming.

Key Takeaways

• Uncertainty is the only certainty and 3 > 1 is more than a formula—it’s a commercial imperative in good times and especially in times of economic volatility.
• The three-dimensional flywheel provides a playbook to ensure that companies don’t just survive economic volatility but power through it, coming out the other side stronger and structurally advantaged.
• Rather than being locked into the unpredictability of a funnel-heavy acquisition strategy, companies with a customer-centric commercial flywheel gain the strategic flexibility to fluidly adapt to market conditions without being forced into reactive, high-cost commercial moves.

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About the author

Wayne Simmons is a global customer excellence lead and customer experience thought leader. Within the Chief Marketing Office (CMO) of Pfizer, he is responsible for crafting and executing the company’s first global customer experience strategy, leading commercial benchmarking and the adoption of customer-centric ways of working, and serving as the company’s principal technical advisor on Customer Excellence. He has prior marketing, commercial, and customer experience leadership roles with Bayer Pharmaceuticals, The Ritz-Carlton Leadership Center, and Mercer and has provided customer-centric transformation and CXM turnaround consulting to leading global brands in the financial services, consumer goods, hospitality, and retail sectors. Wayne is also a professor of practice on the faculty of the Master of Science in Customer Experience Management (MS-CXM) degree program within the Department of Marketing, Broad College of Business at Michigan State University. Wayne is an Inc. 500 awarded former founder and CEO, a Certified Customer Experience Professional (CCXP), a prior board member of the Customer Experience Professionals Association (CXPA), and a US Army Intelligence veteran.