Can Ramaphosa and Trump reset relations?

Of the three Gulf states that U.S. President Donald Trump visited last week, the United Arab Emirates struck some of the most spectacular deals.

Pledges between the two countries amounted to more than $200 billion, and—following restrictions under former President Joe Biden—the UAE will enjoy expanded access to advanced U.S. artificial intelligence chips. Lifting these controls is a dangerous error, Alasdair Phillips-Robins and Sam Winter-Levy warn: Without them, the United States is “placing the most important technology of the 21st century at the whims of autocratic regimes with sophisticated surveillance systems [and] expanding ties to China.”

The nexus between China and the UAE is especially apparent in Africa, where Emirati businesses are making green energy investments using Chinese technology and minerals. The United States, meanwhile, looks set to retreat from the continent, with cuts to the U.S. Agency for International Development and Trump’s tariffs pushing African nations to form new alliances.

Through the transactional lens that Trump is fond of, “Africa is not likely to be judged by its long-term potential or the future strategic risks of disengagement,” Curtis Bell and Christopher Faulkner, of the U.S. Naval War College, write. But the authors argue that U.S.-Africa policy can still prioritize tangible returns through investments that build enduring partnerships, not through quick exits or one-sided gains.

Trump will have the chance to follow that advice as he meets with South African President Cyril Ramaphosa in Washington on May 21. South Africa is the United States’ largest trading partner in a region that is an important strategic gateway into Africa, yet Ramaphosa and Trump have not gotten off to a good start.

In fact, the diplomatic relationship between the United States and South Africa has reached its lowest point since the latter’s transition to democracy in 1994, Imraan Buccus, a senior research associate at South Africa’s Auwal Socio-Economic Research Institute, writes. Much of the blame can be attributed to a Feb. 7 executive order awarding refugee status to Afrikaners that South Africa’s foreign ministry described as based on a “campaign of misinformation and propaganda.”

Ramaphosa has said that his country would not be “bullied” by Trump, but as he looks to reset relations and strike a much-needed trade deal, the stakes for his meeting at the White House this week are high.—Amelia Lester, deputy editor

On Our Radar

• Ukraine pivot. Trump is expected to speak with Russian President Vladimir Putin today. The call comes shortly after one of Russia’s largest drone bombardments in Ukraine, and Trump must spell out the costs that Moscow will incur if it continues down its current path. That’s according to Philip Gordon and Rebecca Lissner, former White House officials writing for FP’s Shadow Government, which showcases the view from the Democratic opposition.
• Romania upset. Centrist Nicusor Dan was the surprise victor of May 18’s presidential election in Romania, defeating a far-right candidate aligned with Trump. At the Munich Security Conference in February, U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance criticized Romania over perceived electoral interference by elites—but the courts and other civic institutions have ensured the ongoing strength of that country’s democracy, as Dan Perry and Mihai Razvan Ungureanu wrote before the election.
• Ethics problem. The royal family of Qatar gifting the Trump administration a $400 million luxury superjet would be a major ethics scandal in most U.S. presidencies, FP columnist Julian Zelizer writes. The Princeton University professor recounts another moment of crisis when Congress took concrete steps to restore public trust.

FP Live

Why the Gulf States Are So Important

May 22 | 11 a.m. ET

Last week, U.S. President Donald Trump made his first state visit abroad to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates. Why are the Gulf states growing in influence? What does it mean for the United States and the world? Middle East expert F. Gregory Gause will join FP’s Ravi Agrawal to examine the rising clout of the Gulf, including the implications for global business, energy, artificial intelligence, and regional flashpoints such as Gaza and Iran. Register now, and submit your questions ahead of the conversation.

How Far Can Trump Go on Mass Deportations?

On Demand

U.S. President Donald Trump came to office promising to end illegal immigration through mass deportations. So far, border crossings have plummeted, and arrests by Immigration and Customs Enforcement have doubled. But for all the news of detained student activists, deported American children, and Salvadoran prisons, the administration is actually deporting fewer immigrants on average than the Biden administration did last year. What’s holding back their plan, and what might happen next? FP’s Ravi Agrawal sat down with Janet Napolitano, a former U.S. secretary of homeland security who ramped up deportations during the Obama administration. Watch on demand or read the edited transcript.

Exercise Your Mind

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese met with which foreign leader on May 15 in his first trip abroad since being reelected earlier this month?

(A) Singaporean Prime Minister Lawrence Wong

(B) Philippines President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.

(C) New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon

(D) Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto

You can find the answer to this question at the end of this email. Test your knowledge with more quiz questions. 

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Answer: D. Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto. Albanese’s election win was fueled by voters’ increasing discontent with the United States, FP’s Amelia Lester wrote in April.