On Causal AI and Networking Correctly

The main focus of this newsletter is ..... Causal AI.

What is causal AI? Causal AI is the latest trend in the world of Artificial Intelligence. I was invited to a conference to look at AI from a game-theoretical lens. I can't make it to the conference, but I did stumble upon an idea about AI that could make it much better.

For all of the great things that ChatGPT and your large language models can do for you right now, they are, at the end of the day, quite unintelligent. I tried uploading some simple game theoretical logics, payoff matrices etc. and asked Chatgpt to solve for the Nash equilibrium. It was consistently bad and inaccurate.

That made me think about what goes behind it. Basically, Chatgpt, more than anything, is a tool that predicts what word would most logically come after the next word based on millions and billions of such occurrences that it has seen in its database. It works on a correlational logic. If 999/1000 times the word "an" precedes the word "apple", your LLM would word based on that. Fed with billions of such instances, its occurrence will become solidified.

But what is new in that? You already kind of knew this. But what you probably didn't catch on to is this whole new movement in AI called "causal AI". There are conferences, events, and high-stakes research grants on building AI models based on causal logic - i.e. the AI will be able to tell you why something happened the way it happened. It can test hypotheses, and it can do a lot of wonderful things. To learn more about Causal AI, watch our video, linked below.

And one more thing about the video - we go further than causal AI. I discuss my concept of "Axiomatic AI". Axiomatic AI, instead of learning only from data, starts from foundational principles — axioms — that are universally accepted as true. Axioms serve as the core building blocks of knowledge, enabling systems to reason, imagine, and create beyond observed patterns. This video explores why building AI on axioms, not just correlations, could unlock a future where machines truly understand and innovate.

Now, time to take a look at the video to find out more.

Career Stuff

There is something seriously wrong in the way policy folks, especially recent graduates are looking for jobs.

3 former interns from the UK, graduates of LSE, UCL, etc. and 2 from the US (again graduates of top universities) spoke with me over the last month about their woes of job applications.

Their strategy? Apply to as many companies as possible. But when it did not work, they begin to network. But how? They meet people in their industry, they tell them about their work interests, skills etc., they also find out more about the organization and ... then they simply ask for a job.

This is, unfortunately, not how networking works. "From cold applications to networking is a good jump, but don't dump networking because you are not doing it right" was my advice to them when they spoke to me about chucking networking and going back to old ways.

I have some experience in this regard. So here is the long and short of it. In the current market, assume no one is willing to give a job to ANYONE. Unless, of course, you can prove to be of some direct benefit. Recent graduates are not of any direct benefit to anyone. It is a cost to hire, train, deal with their mistakes etc. Also, there is a ton of retired talent, former bureaucrats and other folks who really know what is going on and how things work, out there in the market available to be hired. So just meeting and asking for a job is not going to work.

I once, soon after graduation, had an interview with a Big 4 company, with a partner heading the urban resilience/smart cities team. He asked me point blank in the first 2- 3 minutes of the interview - "so what do you bring to the table". I gave him the usual recent graduate spiel. Needless to say, I did not get in. Then, I spoke to someone else, (at the Indian School of Public Policy), just because I wanted to set up a policy school in India and learnt that his thinktank - Centre for Civil Society was setting up one. I was teaching at the San Francisco State University (SFSU) back then, and after Cornell and SFSU, had a fair understanding of how policy schools work. I wasn't even looking for a job there. long story short, I came to India, met him, just to see if I could teach a course there as well, and he said, I should join them full time. I told them I have a student loan ,so not sure if they will be able to afford me. Next week, I get an email with an offer that was lucrative, to say the least, for the time. Why did I get it? because I had already seen the ins and outs of 2 policy institutes. They were looking for someone who could help them set up, and I had, in great detail, discussed how they should host guest lecturers, what my schedule was like there, how are capstone projects organized etc. etc.

Now, in other instances, the way to learn this is through apprenticeships and internships. But the way to do that is through interning in places and doing the very specific work that is the same as the work you would want to do in the organization you wish to join. So, if you are just picking up files in an internship and are mostly observing from the sidelines, in today's market, that is not a winning strategy.

I think of it from my own perspective. I would hire someone in Insights International, if I have a clear value proposition of how they would help in implementing a high end research project (most recent graduates are terrible at research, so I eventually end up doing it myself or giving it to a GPODS alum) or how can they help me in getting more clients etc. Without these two, I would barely feel compelled to hire.

Quick tips:

1. Don't do bad internships.
2. Intern a lot, but not in 10,000 different things.
3. Intern in a manner where you can get real work so that you can actually speak in detail and show legitimately as to how you understand the nitty-gritty of a job in a job interview.
4. Intern in a manner so that you can either impact an organization's bottom line or can really, demonstrably, improve the quality and efficiency of their work.
5. Don't network mindlessly. Network a lot, but don't immediately ask for a job. Prove your value first.

What am I Reading

Society and Economy: Framework and Principles

by Mark Granovetter

Why read it?

Mark Granovetter, one of the founders of economic sociology and author of the classic "The Strength of Weak Ties," offers a bold new framework in Society and Economy: Framework and Principles.

• Bridges Economics and Sociology: Granovetter shows how economic actions are deeply embedded in social relations, challenging the traditional view of markets as isolated from society.
• Explains How Trust and Networks Shape Markets: The book details how personal relationships, trust, and informal networks critically influence economic outcomes — from job searches to business success.
• Lays Groundwork for Understanding Institutions: Granovetter outlines how institutions emerge, evolve, and stabilize, offering a foundation to analyze both economic and political systems.
• Accessible Yet Deep: Written with clarity, the book is valuable both for newcomers seeking a big-picture view and for scholars looking to rethink economic sociology’s core assumptions.

Learn More

Alum Highlight

Incredibly proud to share that Ishwarya Kandasamy, a GPODS alum, spoke at the UN High-Level Political Forum, delivering her intervention during the review of SDG 14: Life Below Water. To see our fellows take the global stage and shape conversations on sustainability and development is exactly why GPODS exists. These aren’t just moments of recognition, they’re moments of influence. Congratulations, Ishwarya, on using your voice where it matters most.

This Month's Highlight!

This month Upasana and I also celebrated 4th of July, the United State’s Independence Day with the Bernhardts at their home in Apalachin, a small town near Binghamton in upstate New York! Beyond bonfires and barbeque’s the US Independence Day is a time when families get together and reflect on their legacy, and the America’s great values of “Life, Liberty, and the Pursuit of Happiness”. Upasana and I had a great time learning about various stories of the Independence movement in the United States from the Bernhardts and shared parallels of India’s Independence movement!

That is all for now.

Until next time,

Arpit Chaturvedi