Climate Risk Monthly — March 2025

Welcome back to Climate Risk Monthly! In this edition, we're bringing you a deep-dive into the evolving international landscape in the fight against climate change — particularly focusing on the roles of the U.S. and China. In the wake of recent U.S. policy changes, international coalitions face a significant challenge in defining a path forward, and many are hoping China will step up to provide support. Read on to learn more!

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Recent GARP Content

Climate Risk Podcast | Mar 27

Climate Risk Webcast | Mar 20

Contributed Article | Mar 13

Climate Risk Podcast | Mar 6

Special Feature: Global Leadership in the Fight Against Climate Change

Recent policy shifts in the U.S. have broadly served to deemphasize the gravity of the climate crisis and to abandon prior commitments to mitigate its impacts both at home and abroad. These shifts in U.S. policy contrast with China’s strong recent domestic record on climate change and raise questions about global green leadership going forward.

Changes in the U.S.

Within the U.S., the Environmental Protection Agency under the Trump Administration has stated it will be rolling back 31 environmental rules that it claims hinder domestic energy production — including limits on emissions from fossil-fuel powerplants and car tailpipes [1]. The agency has also signaled it will be reexamining a 2009 determination that greenhouse gas emissions endanger public health and welfare, which could undermine the legal basis for future regulations. At the same time, President Trump has voiced his intent to fast-track fossil fuel projects while scaling back funding for renewable energy [2].

In the international arena, the U.S. has pulled out of multiple international agreements and reneged on prior commitments of funds for climate change-related projects. In addition to once again leaving the Paris Agreement, the U.S. has pulled out of Just Energy Transition Partnerships (JETPs) with South Africa and Indonesia, withdrawn its pledge of USD 17.5 million to the new UN Loss & Damage fund, and pulled USD 4 billion from the UN’s Green Climate Fund [3][4][5]. The clear implication is that the U.S. will be unwilling to meaningfully contribute to international climate efforts under the current regime.

International Reactions

In reaction to the U.S.’s pullback from climate change initiatives, other countries, while expressing disappointment, have put on a brave face. As Ana Toni, the CEO of COP30, which will take place in Brazil later this year, put it, “We have 198 parties under the Paris agreement. […] 197 are still committed” [6]. Others have pointed out that the U.S. has historically been at best inconsistent in its climate commitments, despite being the world’s largest economy. Nonetheless, the U.S.’s definitive exit from international climate efforts leaves a void of both money and leadership — and many are looking to China to fill the gap.

Climate Efforts in China

In 2021, President Xi Jinping pledged that China — currently the world’s largest producer of greenhouse gases — would achieve carbon neutrality before 2060 and reach peak emissions before 2030.

Substantial progress has already been made towards these goals. Although China continues to build up its coal capacity, it currently leads the world in both solar and wind energy manufacturing and capacity, with twice as much capacity under construction as the rest of the world combined [7] [8]; it has the world’s largest national carbon market, covering roughly 5 billion tons of carbon dioxide equivalent emissions annually or roughly 40% of the nation’s total emissions [9]; and many experts believe that China’s emissions have either peaked or will peak this year, half-a-decade ahead of schedule [10].

On February 24, at the 62nd Plenary Session of the IPCC, which China hosted in Hangzhou, the head of the China Meteorological Administration emphasized both the need for global cooperation to address climate change and China’s willingness to work with all parties [11]. Over the next fortnight, Chinese officials announced a slew of environmental pledges and initiatives, including:

• Eliminating severe air pollution by the end of 2025 (>50 µg PM2.5 per m³) [12];
• Accelerating the development of new solar and wind farms both offshore and in the Gobi Desert [13];
• Investing in grid infrastructure to absorb a +14.5% surge in power generation due to new solar production [14]; and
• Unveiling new guidelines to accelerate the development of green technology market [15].

Will China Step Up Internationally?

While their domestic record is impressive, it is unclear whether China will step in to fill the void in foreign aid and climate finance left by the U.S., thereby solidifying its position as a global green leader [16].

Historically, Chinese foreign aid has revolved around infrastructure development under the Belt and Road initiative, a crucial element of President Jinping’s foreign policy that aims to build new trade routes between China and western Eurasia and Africa. There are no signs of any incoming deviation from this ‘self-interested’ aid policy, but international pressure is growing for China to increase its contributions to multilateral organizations, such as the UN, to help address climate and humanitarian issues [17].

The need for vast amounts of climate finance will only continue to grow, and whichever nations step forward to meet that need will have significant influence in setting the global green agenda going forward.

Other Noteworthy Articles

A lawsuit being brought by a Peruvian farmer against German energy company RWE could have massive international implications (Associated Press).

Some of the world's most populous cities are increasingly experiencing "whiplash" from alternating drought and flood conditions (Reuters).

Climate change is having large impacts on the Mongolian steppe, with big implications for traditional herding practices (France 24).

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