Death of the Deterministic Identifier

There is more and more speculation in the press on how the industry will navigate the death of the cookie. However, we see a much larger and more nuanced fundamental change coming which could use more press coverage: the rapid deceleration of 3rd party deterministic ID marketplaces.

If you’re well-versed in digital marketing measurement you know that the disappearing cookie isn’t wholly the problem. There are other ways to assign and sort personal data such as mobile device IDs, phone numbers, hashed emails, TV device IDs, etc. these are referred to as deterministic identifiers, since they can determine exactly who a consumer is. An entire 3rd party industry profited for decades from appending data to unique, persistent consumer identifiers—then selling that data over and over.

However, the real spirit behind GDPR & CCPA regulations is that all exchangeable identifiers are going to go away too. At that point, a move to DSPs with log files and mobile device_ids, or connected TV or independent data co-ops will be a game of whack-a-mole for marketers to continuously chase ever harder-to-find addressability.

Some advertisers can work around with walled gardens and data agreements that function well enough for some purposes. Some tech platforms are attempting to cobble together a consented framework which can support cooperative data exchanges. These solutions are going to take a lot of effort, coordination and participation to be successful. We applaud The Trade Desk’s work on Unified ID 2.0, but we understand a lot more needs to be done.

So, how are brands going to understand and reach consumers when the deterministic identifiers all go away?

We see the future of measurement & activation being driven by consented zero- and first-party data, harnessed within a new set of frameworks governing privacy, value exchange, and data collection, then activated through direct relationships with walled gardens and publishers with consumer relationships. We will also see contextual targeting take center stage where audiences are not directly addressable. Likewise, advanced Media Mix Modeling and econometric analysis will help marketers measure performance where deterministic data is missing.

Third-party deterministic IDs may be going away, but marketers will see solutions take their place that are simultaneously more powerful, decoupled from the aging browser cookie, and most importantly respectful of consumer choice and the customer experience.

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Christopher Martin is a lifelong entrepreneur and currently the Co-founder and Chief Operating Officer of MightyHive, a global leader in advanced marketing and technology services that deploys and supports enterprise software for real-time, data-driven marketing. He also sits on the executive board of directors for S4 Capital, one of the largest and most successful digital advertising consultancies worldwide.