The five hidden costs of guesswork
“So many founders are making million-dollar calls just looking in the rear-view mirror. You can see where you’ve been, but not what’s ahead, and that’s where the hidden costs creep in.” – Ben Cooper, MBA , Amplify .
When the pressure’s on, it can feel easier to “go with your gut.” But instinct only takes you so far. Without a clear financial forecasting rhythm, the ripple effects of today’s decisions stay invisible until they’ve already hit.
In this article, based on our recent webinar with Ben Cooper, we explore the five hidden costs of guessing and how shifting from instinct to structured forecasting creates clarity, alignment, and confidence in every decision.
1. Missed opportunities
“Without a forecast, it’s like driving by the rear-view mirror. You end up playing it safe, but playing safe means you miss chances to grow.”
This shows up most clearly in hiring and pricing.
A founder delays bringing on a new salesperson because “we’re not sure we can afford it.” Six months later, they are behind on revenue. A pricing change stalls because the debate is just “my opinion versus yours.”
Forecasting does not just reduce risk, it helps you see upside. With simple scenarios, those same calls become clear: “If we increase prices 10%, here’s the headroom we will have by Q4.”
That is opportunity captured, not missed.
2. Vision drift
“As the fires pile up, you go reactive. The long-term vision gets pushed further and further out, until the short-term and long-term no longer line up.”
Ben calls this vision drift. Without a forecast to anchor decisions, day-to-day firefighting slowly pulls leaders off course. Over time, the gap between vision and reality grows until drastic moves feel like the only option.
A forecast gives you a compass. It allows you to check: Are we still on track for where we want to be in five, ten, twenty years?
The power of forecasting is not just in the numbers. It is in keeping today’s choices aligned with tomorrow’s goals.
3. Team misalignment
“When leadership is guessing, the team feels it. Sales are aiming at one target, marketing at another, and delivery at a third. Everyone’s pulling in different directions.”
The fallout is frustration, wasted effort, and disengagement. Ben has seen sales teams demoralised when asked to chase numbers that do not line up with what the business can actually deliver.
A forecast creates a shared story. Instead of each team operating on assumptions, everyone is working from the same map: Here’s the plan, here’s what’s possible, here’s how we fit together.
Forecasting builds more than financial discipline. It builds alignment.
4. Constant financial stress
“Otherwise you’re just looking at the bank account and hoping it’s enough. That’s not a strategy.”
Guessing leaves leaders stuck in firefighting mode. Every decision such as can we hire, can we invest, can we expand becomes a source of anxiety.
With forecasting, those same decisions are calmer and more considered. If cash lands here, we move forward. If it does not, we pause.
The stress is not eliminated, but it is replaced with options. Leaders stop reacting to the unknown and start choosing with confidence.
5. Eroded trust
“When your numbers don’t stack up, people stop believing the story. And that’s not just investors; it’s your board, your bank, even your team.”
Once trust is lost, it is hard to win back. A forecast backed by credible numbers is more than just a spreadsheet. It is evidence that your story holds up.
For investors, it is proof of a growth path. For boards, it is confidence in governance. For teams, it is reassurance that the targets they are chasing are realistic.
Trust is a currency. Forecasting helps you protect it.
What’s the fix?
“Forecasting isn’t a project, it’s a rhythm. Like your monthly leadership meeting or quarterly off-site. It’s a habit where you check: what’s changed, what does that mean, and what if we try this?” – Ben Cooper
That rhythm is where the guesswork stops and the growth starts.
Fathom helps leaders build that rhythm into everyday decision-making. It becomes simple to model “what if” scenarios, connect financial and operational data, and present reports that everyone can trust. But the real shift is cultural: treating forecasting as a habit, not a one-off project.
Until next time,
Team Fathom