The four global megatrends every Scottish business should prepare for

Every day, headlines relating to the rise of AI, global biodiversity loss and the latest trade meltdown make for challenging reading. Disruptions such as these can derail business plans in a heartbeat, and yet these market-busting issues can also bring opportunity for Scottish companies willing to lead in the face of change. 

We know that businesses who respond innovatively to these forces are better placed to stay ahead. That’s because our futures work helps us to anticipate these risks and opportunities and help businesses lead from the front. 

One key aspect of this is our research into ‘megatrends’ – major movements shaping Scotland’s current and future economy.  

Brand new analysis into these megatrends has just been published by our Strategy & Performance Team - Megatrends 2025 analysis - and it identifies four disruptive trends which are likely to drive transformational change to Scottish businesses over the next decade.

Whether identifying risks or opportunities, one of the key takeaways of this report is the need for urgency, and moving quickly is a much more viable prospect if a business is aware of the changes that lie on the horizon.

So, what might those changes be? These are the four disruptive trends that we have identified, and how businesses in Scotland can take action to become more resilient:

1. The race for security 

What’s happening: Competition for resources is driving economic nationalism, which in turn creates more uncertainty and raises global tensions. Protectionism and the recent implementation of US import tariffs are reshaping global trade and supply chains, leading to further insecurity for businesses. 

Why it matters: The number of harmful trade barriers (including tariffs, quotas and subsidies) rose from 673 in 2017 to 3,388 in 2023 in response to competition over issues including critical technologies and critical raw materials. For example, China has world-leading research capabilities in 57 of the 64 critical technologies. 

How to respond: “One thing we are seeing from all this uncertainty is the need for businesses to be agile and to diversify their strategies to mitigate any risks,” says our Head of Global Trade for Consumer Industries, Ewen Cameron . “If you are a company that exports, now is a good time to research opportunities also open to you in other growth markets. Can you grow demand elsewhere in the world? And whether you export or not, act quickly to become fully familiar with the nature of your supply chains and the origin of any inputs used. How secure is that access to the resources that you need?” 

2. The skills squeeze 

What’s happening: Skills shortages in the UK and globally are driving a talent crisis. The skills landscape is in a challenging position, with a mix of factors involved including fewer people of working age, changing expectations about work and life, and technological advances reconfiguring the working relationship between humans and machines. 

Why it matters: Korn Ferry forecast that by 2030, globally more than 85 million jobs could go unfilled because of skill shortages (a number greater than the population of Germany), costing businesses $8.5 trillion USD in lost annual revenues. 

How to respond: Helen Noble , our Team Leader for Workplace Innovation, discusses the concept of ‘hidden talent’, and attracting under-employed groups to help reduce skill shortages. “There are many people out there who may not be actively targeted in terms of your recruitment but have the skills you need. Those with latent skills, or who are disadvantaged or are young and have not yet entered the labour market. Are you targeting those hidden talent pools and do they understand how they would benefit from working with you?” 

3. Environmental tipping points

What’s happening: Global warming is already having a profound impact on our climate and nature, and scientists have forecast we could pass several pivotal tipping points by the mid-2030s. However, transformational change can still be driven by strategic investment in nature-based and technological solutions that both reduce emissions as well as support adaptation to climate change. 

Why it matters: Analysis from the London Stock Exchange found that the green economy was the second-fastest growing global industry in terms of market capitalisation of the past decade (after the technology sector), worth $7.2 trillion USD in the first half of 2024. 

How to respond: “There are a few key areas that businesses must focus on to ensure they thrive through changing environmental conditions and reduce climate exposure,” says Ian Carstairs , our Sustainability and Net Zero Team Leader for Business Support Services. “From emerging environmental legislation to renewable energy technologies to vulnerabilities within global supply chains, once the risks are identified you should plan to protect against climate-related disruption. The key thing is to act now before you get left behind.” 

4. Breakthrough tech 

What’s happening: A range of emerging technologies are on the cusp of providing real innovation to Scottish businesses. Artificial Intelligence, quantum computing, robotics, blockchain, genetic engineering and grid-scale energy storage all have the potential to drive business transformation. But in order to create higher value employment, these advances must be adopted with understanding of their impacts on skills, ethics, privacy and regulations. 

Why it matters: After surveying over 1,000 leading global employers for their 2025 Future of Jobs Report, the World Economic Forum found that by 2030 half of them plan to re-orient their business in response to AI, two-thirds plan to hire talent with specific AI skills, while 40% anticipate reducing their workforce where AI can automate tasks. 

How to respond: “Involve employees in the technology selection and design process,” says our Head of Manufacturing and Digital Economies, Jerome Finlayson . “This will ensure tools you then introduce will genuinely support their work and enhance productivity. Any tech solutions adopted should be flexible and scalable so that they can evolve alongside your business needs and the changing capabilities of your workforce, who should be trained and upskilled at every stage.” 

Support and resources

Over the next few weeks, we will be exploring these themes in more detail, in a series of articles on the game-changing trends identified by our Strategy & Performance Team, setting out the steps Scottish businesses can take, right now, to help them navigate fast-paced change. 

In the meantime, read the full Megatrends 2025 report. 

For a tailored plan to improve the efficiency of your premises, investigate renewable energy sources or to help reduce energy costs, please get in touch with our specialist Business Sustainability Team, who can help you build resilience and manage the impacts of climate change. 

Our experienced Digital Transformation Support Team offers free, impartial advice on improving technology use within your business. From cybersecurity to implementing new systems, contact the team today for specialist support and advice.