Fourteen Moonshots in Search of a Billionaire

A recent financial blog I read listed fourteen emerging technologies which it labeled moonshots. I thought it might be interesting to present each one with a quick comment and then see what others have to say about them. Here goes:

• 6G: “The next generation of telecom networks will be needed in less than a decade as data continues to grow exponentially and 5G reaches its upper limit capacity.”

No brainer. In our digitally transforming world, bandwidth will be a constraint for a long time to come.

• Brain Computer Interfaces: “As we reach a point where humans are unable to keep up with computers and AI, brain computer interfaces could help ‘level up’ humans with computers. Shorter term, brain computer interfaces hold solutions for paralyzed individuals and promise a new wave of innovation in gaming.”

This is a “no brainer” in the opposite direction. Yes, if we are connecting to the motor system or one of the autonomic systems (pacemakers being an early example), but absolutely no way if we are talking about interfacing to consciousness. Our understanding of how the brain interfaces to the mind, and vice versa, is virtually non-existent, so the idea of automating it is ludicrous.

• Emotional Artificial Intelligence: Also “known as 'Affective Computing' and 'Cognitive Computing' (it) is designed to capture, analyze and respond to human emotions and simulate human thoughts. EAI can potentially collect, analyze and respond to completely new varieties of data and situations and predict or simulate human thought, leading people to take action.”

OK, this is simply terrifying. We have already seen what insensitive algorithms can do to divide our society (while increasing clicks and encouraging ad spend). Imagine the carnage when we put real power behind these motives! That said, sentiment analysis is a valuable tool for a wide variety of valuable purposes. We just need to keep a human in the loop, and then hold that human accountable (which, I admit, is easier said than done).

• Synthetic Biology: “At its core, 'synbio', as the field is commonly referred to, takes advantage of the vast diversity of nature to make biomolecules that traditional chemistry cannot.”

This is a biggie. It turns out bacteria make amazing factories and are completely programmable. That said, as we found out with nanotechnology, the gating item will be applications, not enabling technology, so be sure to work back from the unsolvable problem, not forward from the unmatchable capability.

• Immortality: “Traditionally, aging has not been viewed as a disease that can be treated but this is changing. Actors in this space are increasingly looking to tackle the hallmark of aging via pathways such as genomic instability, telomere attrition, mitochondrial dysfunction, and cellular senescence among others.”

OK, we’ll grant poetic license here, because I cannot think of anything more frightening than personal immortality. But I do appreciate the value of extending quality of life over time, and I admit I am the in the target demographic. That said, I think there are a lot of other problems and opportunities that are more important to pursue than this one, and I am particularly concerned that this would exacerbate the wealth division problems we are currently experiencing.

• Bionic humans: “This could be invasive (e.g. implants) or non-invasive (e.g. exoskeleton). Biohacking is also an associated field which is essentially applying DIY biology to boost oneself e.g. RFID chip in hand for contactless payments.”

Implants are of real benefit, but I don’t think that sector is being disrupted at present. The other stuff comes from watching too many Avengers sequels. 

• eVTOL: “Electrical vertical take-off and landing vehicles that could provide an alternative mobility transportation solution to outdated infrastructure and overly stressed roads in urban settings.”

This is fanciful. I think the real transportation breakthrough will come from autonomous vehicles, which will certainly be EVs. Smart cars combined with smart roads, in a world that has converted to a hybrid work model, will alleviate the pressure.

• Wireless Electricity: “As the IoT takes off, automating and creating near continuous charging solutions could provide convenience for consumers, while solving charging problems for the rollout of EVs and secure electricity supplies for remote communities.”

Another no-brainer, although I am not sure I know how this actually works. But digital transformation and mobile communications make as much demands on electric power as they do on network bandwidth, so anything that alleviates the bottlenecks will be taken up as quickly as possible.

• Holograms: “A technology capable of creating a simulated environment through light imagery projections that will allow everyone to come together in one virtual room, without having to leave their physical location.”

Meh. I am so pandemically starved for physical presence, I cannot get behind anything that is pushing in the opposite direction.

• Metaverse: “A future iteration of the Internet, made up of persistent, shared, 3D-shared spaces linked into a virtual universe. It could comprise countless persistent virtual worlds that interoperate with one another, as well as the physical world and transforming markets such as gaming, retail, entertainment etc.”

OK, now I really am the wrong demographic. If this were a Pixar movie, Ed Asner would be playing my role, and most of my lines would echo Ebenezer Scrooge. Bah! Humbug!

• Nextgen Batteries: “Whilst lithium batteries are the major EV technology, this does not necessarily need to stay true with alternatives such as solid state, vanadium flow, sodium ion etc provide promising additional attributes.”

Another no-brainer. Lithium will be the new oil, and other technologies will compete for electrons as lithium supplies become more scarce. That said, material science is not a strong suit among the current tech giants or the current tech magnet centers, so look for this to emerge in new locales with new heroes.

• OceanTech: “It seeks to answer: ‘How do we increase sustainability of the ocean economy while harnessing its benefits?’ Solutions could include ocean energy, land-based aquaculture, and precision fishing using AI.”

Another untapped frontier, and one that holds amazing promise. That said, how to incentivize venture investment while guarding against rampant exploitation represents a challenge we have yet to master.

• Green Mining: “Transitioning away from a carbon-intensive economy will mean moving to a metal-intensive one. Green mining solutions like deep-sea mining, agromining, mining of wastewater and asteroid mining could provide less polluting and destructive solutions as the green economy’s thirst for metals grows.”

This one follows logically from the near-term market opportunity for next-gen batteries. Same rules apply.

• Carbon Capture and Storage: “All current zero-carbon pathways require some form of CO2 removal. CCS, alongside other geoengineering solutions, could act as part of the solution with long-term permanent removal of CO2 vs afforestation.”

This challenge operates at such a scale I cannot fathom how to address it. Fortunately, there are better minds than mine that are aggressively taking up the challenge. The economic model that funds it will almost certainly be a public-private partnership. That in turn entails a relationship of trust between the two sectors, something we need to repair if we are going to take on anything this large.

If ever a post called for my tagline, this is the one:

That’s what I think. What do you think?

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