Here's how many San Antonio jobs could be disrupted by AI

The rise of artificial intelligence is expected to disrupt about 35% of workers in San Antonio.

That's according to a new study by the Brookings Institution, which found that AI will significantly affect 31.24% of workers nationally. That percentage represents the share of workers for whom AI will change at least half of their work tasks in the near future.

The analysis was based on exposure ratings from OpenAI and data from Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics and Lightcast.

Brookings’ research confirmed that while automation efforts forever changed the manufacturing economy, generative AI — the next wave of workplace modernization —is coming for the knowledge sector this time, with potentially far-reaching consequences for workers, industries and urban footprints.

“AI is especially adept at substituting or altering not physical tasks, but the more cognitive [ones] — especially those mid-level office activities so prevalent in (human resources) and back-office services, middle-level management and planning,” said Mark Muro, senior fellow at Brookings Metro and one of several authors of the report.

A prior report from Brookings found 30% of all workers could see at least 50% of their occupational tasks affected by ChatGPT-4, while 85% of workers could see at least 10% of their tasks impacted.

“While we (as researchers) try hard to be agnostic about this technology, this is a big deal and it’s moving rapidly, so we need to wake up and consider the productivity gains for certain workers,” Muro said. “In some cases, it will break down careers, and individuals will need to completely reinvent themselves. The same communities that may benefit and pull away from other places may also deal with significant labor-market problems.”

Brookings’ findings reveal that the greater an occupation’s required education and average pay, the deeper the exposure—either positive or negative—to generative AI.

But while metros can be touched by industry changes in different ways, late 20th-century automation efforts disproportionately impacted small towns and less-educated communities. This time around, the inverse is true.

Urban areas with the highest average annual pay are now most exposed to AI changes. In fact, among the four major metros where the average yearly income was above $100,000 last year, the risk was 35% or higher.

Outside of major metropolitan areas, college towns have some of the highest degrees of risk. Boulder, Colorado — home to the University of Colorado — has the highest exposure, at 41%, on par with areas near Silicon Valley.

Muro’s co-author, Shriya Methkupally, said Ann Arbor, Michigan, (home to University of Michigan) and Bloomington, Illinois, (which contains Illinois Wesleyan and Illinois State universities) both have 38% exposure, followed by Ithaca, New York, (home of Cornell University and Ithaca College) and Madison, Wisconsin, (where the University of Wisconsin Madison is located), at 37%.

However, Methkupally also sees potential wins for these smaller college communities.

“They have the most to benefit if they’re able to create local employment for graduates,” she said. “There’s a big workforce that comes out of these universities, and if adoption picks up even in small and medium businesses, you have tons of opportunity for local employment.”

Digital and tech hubs should expect effects

AI’s effect on certain industries and occupations — not to mention the job search itself — could ultimately drive local labor trends.

Many of the HR and customer-service roles most at risk provide solid middle-class incomes, and women disproportionately perform these same jobs.

Such shifts could also have tremendous implications for urban communities and long-term city planning. As noted, metro areas with the highest-educated, best-paid workers will be most at risk, which could put local office economies in jeopardy, too.

In San Jose, California, 43% of workers could see generative AI shift at least half of their work tasks. But in Las Vegas, where hospitality and tourism are big economic engines, only 31% of workers are anticipated to see major disruption.

“Companies are grappling with getting people back in the office but are probably also rethinking things, given this technology,” Muro said. “It’s hard to map out the actual real estate impact, but you can certainly consider this as a side effect. On the other hand, it could lead to dynamism in new places.”

Risk varies dramatically even within the same state.

In California, exposure in Santa Clara County (home to Google, Apple and Nvidia) is 42.8%. Of additional concern, Silicon Valley has seen an exodus of tech firms in recent years.

Urban versus rural variations flatten out somewhat when counties are aggregated nationally, with a 35% average among highly urban counties as opposed to 30% in non-metro areas.

Communities may want to mitigate

While policymakers can track emergence and exposure patterns, especially in large, high-tech cities, upskilling may not be enough.

Strong efforts may be needed to address economic and social disparities that could arise as certain areas surge ahead, while others are left behind, as witnessed in the last automation revolution.

In 2020, a joint study conducted by researchers from the University of Pennsylvania, Yale, Harvard Medical School and Massachusetts General Hospital found that American counties that experienced an automotive assembly plant closure between 1999 and 2016 were associated with a statistically significant increase in county-level opioid overdose deaths among adults.

In the latter 20th century, Rust Belt cities such as Buffalo, New York, Cleveland, Detroit and Pittsburgh lost more than 40% of their population. While many of those same communities have reemerged with vibrant startup ecosystems in the past 10 to 20 years, the rise of AI could mean they'll face new challenges — and new opportunities.

“It’s a two-bore dimension of impact. On one hand, it could be extremely beneficial as we move into more open-source AI, as demonstrated by DeepSeek,” Muro said. “This [technology] could be tremendously powerful and energizing for new firms and startups but also in transforming existing legacy industries for new national and global proximity.”