The Israel-Iran War and What Lies Ahead

Like many, I’ve been following developments between Israel and Iran closely over the past week—trying to understand where all of this might lead. I'd hoped for a diplomatic off-ramp of some kind, but tonight’s confirmation of U.S. involvement in airstrikes inside Iran is an indicator of a sharp turn toward escalation. Below are my brief thoughts on where things stand, where they may go next, and what this could mean for us at home. No matter how you view it, it's an extraordinarily complex situation--far more so than most media outlets will ever account for.

Six months into a new administration, the Middle East is once again engulfed in armed conflict. Israel has launched targeted strikes against key sites in Iran’s nuclear program. Iran has responded with missile and drone attacks across Israeli cities. These aren't isolated attacks. Both sides are making deliberate moves designed to shift the balance of power.

Meanwhile, diplomatic efforts are collapsing. Civilian populations are caught in the middle. The risk of a broader regional war in the Middle East is no longer theoretical, it's quite possible.

WHAT'S HAPPENED

To quickly review the bidding... Israel has struck Iran’s nuclear sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan. The intention is clear: disrupt Iran’s ability to enrich uranium and delay its nuclear timeline. The strikes also targeted senior leaders within the Revolutionary Guard and Quds Force.

Iran responded with drone and missile attacks on Israeli cities. Damage was reported in multiple locations. Casualties have been confirmed. Some strikes were intercepted. Others landed in civilian areas, including hospitals and critical infrastructure.

The United States carried out coordinated strikes in support of Israel. These included hits on underground facilities and military command centers. The administration later confirmed U.S. involvement, though official statements were delayed.

In Geneva, diplomatic talks collapsed, after Iranian representatives left the table. They've said they will not return unless the strikes stop. Iran has also threatened to withdraw entirely from the Non-Proliferation Treaty.

THE HUMAN DIMENSION

Refugees are crossing borders in search of safety. Electricity and internet access have been cut in parts of Iran. Western governments have evacuated diplomatic staff. Embassies in Tehran and Tel Aviv are closing. Only security staff remains. Energy markets are reacting. Crude oil prices are rising. Economic uncertainty is spreading worldwide.

4 POSSIBLE OUTCOMES

Full Regional War

Iran has warned that any further involvement by the United States or the United Kingdom will lead to attacks on foreign military and civilian targets. Armed groups across Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen are preparing for military action. If American forces in Iraq or Bahrain are targeted, escalation against Iran will certainly follow.

Prolonged Exchange of Strikes

Israel and Iran may continue striking each other over the course of months. It's clear that neither side is currently willing to back down. So, military operations will continue for the foreseeable future. Cyberattacks will likely expand. Diplomats will attempt to contain the crisis but they'll find few points of leverage.

The Nuclear Threshold

Damage to nuclear facilities may trigger contamination or accidents. Iran may accelerate enrichment. If the international community loses visibility into the nuclear program, speculation will replace verification, and regional powers will respond accordingly.

Temporary Halt in Hostilities

With skilled mediation and diplomacy there's still a possibility of a pause. Iran has stated it may return to talks if the military campaign stops. Some European countries, like France, are working to open a backchannel through Turkey or Oman. Any pause will require a coordinated effort by outside powers.

THE US ROLE

The United States has now entered the conflict directly. Airstrikes have been confirmed. Cyber capabilities have been used against Iranian systems. Intelligence-sharing with Israel is active and will continue.

There is division inside our own government. Some leaders are urging caution. Others are pressing for stronger action. While the public watches, our Allies are seeking clarity.

GLOBAL IMPLICATIONS

Radiological risk, especially regionally, is growing. A strike on the wrong site could lead to disaster. Oil shipments from the Gulf are in jeopardy. Attacks on shipping lanes will certainly drive gas and oil prices higher. Supply chains are being rerouted. Airlines and shipping firms are adjusting their routes as we speak.

Financial markets are reacting to every new development. Investors are looking for stability but they're finding none. Central banks are preparing for volatility. Multinational firms are assessing risk exposure in the region.

Cyberwarfare is no longer theoretical. Attacks on water systems, energy grids, and transit networks have already occurred. Governments are working to harden infrastructure, but damage has already been done. Here in the United States, it's quite possible we could experience the same kind of attacks against our own infrastructure.

Extremist groups see an opening. Hezbollah and Houthi forces have issued statements in support of Iran. Coordinated actions may begin soon. Western embassies and senior personnel are potential high value targets.

WHAT'S NEXT

Expect this war to last for months, not weeks. The likelihood of a broader regional war in the Middle East is increasing—not decreasing. Every actor in this conflict is balancing deterrence with escalation. The margin for miscalculation is razor-thin.

The war will not be short. It will not be clean. And its impact will be global. There is no evidence of a clear resolution.Those watching from a distance should not assume this is confined to the Middle East. Diplomats, investors, planners—and ordinary citizens—should prepare for a prolonged period of instability with global consequences.

If you're a strategist, it's time to dust off Sun Tzu and Clausewitz. Each action creates new reactions, and the risk of miscalculation increases with every hour.

Governments at all levels should begin planning for extended instability. Emergency plans should be reviewed. Diplomatic channels should remain open, even if they appear fruitless. Civilian populations will bear the brunt of this conflict. Relief and humanitarian organizations must be prepared.

This is VUCA in plain view—Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, and Ambiguity. And it's the kind of environment where leaders earn their keep, and often where leadership is at a real premium. While it rewards calm thinking, steady hands, and the discipline to act without all the answers, the converse is also true: it punishes hesitation, overreaction, and the inability to understand the dynamics of critical decision making.

Amidst all of the uncertainty, several things seem certain for us at home. The events unfolding abroad won't remain distant for long. Rising fuel prices will tighten household budgets as oil shipments are disrupted. Cyberattacks will likely test our infrastructure—power grids, financial systems, and public services. Those of us who have family members in uniform could face new deployments, and the presence of heightened security at airports and public spaces is a sure thing. Sooner than later, Americans will also be drawn into a deeper conversation about our nation's role in the world. This time, it won’t be theoretical. It'll be a conversation that will shape policy, readiness, and our national purpose for years...decades to come.