Kalshi changes mind on X

Kalshi U-turns on X

Bloomberg reported a sudden turnaround at Kalshi this week, as the prediction markets platform quickly withdrew announcements of a collaboration with Elon Musk-led artificial intelligence firm xAI.

Kalshi quietly withdrew the deal just hours after a top Kalshi exec announced that the companies would collaborate to deliver tailored information to guide bets made by the site’s users.

A spokesperson for Kalshi later revealed that “details of the announcement had not been mutually confirmed” as the company retracted its statement.

Following this confusion, X posted on its platform that it had not confirmed any formal partnerships in the prediction market sector, but revealed that it is engaged in several discussions.

According to Bloomberg, Kalshi head honcho Tarek Mansour had posted about the collaboration on X, saying it would “further take prediction markets mainstream” in a statement which has since been deleted.

The article also points out that “both Kalshi and xAI have ties to President Donald Trump’s world. His son, Donald Trump Jr., is a strategic adviser to Kalshi. 

“The President also nominated Kalshi board member Brian Quintenz to lead the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which regulates the prediction markets along with other derivatives exchanges.”

Elsewhere, Musk has acted as a key advisor to Trump since his presidency began, deepening the links between the presidency, prediction markets and X.

While both organisations clearly have friends in high places, it seems this potential deal is still some way from being confirmed.

Got to be in it to win it

Speaking of US politics, Hillary Clinton made a perhaps unexpected statement this week, as BBC News reported that she has waded into discussions around changes in the law around charity lotteries in Northern Ireland.

A supportive video message from former secretary of state Clinton, who is now chancellor of Queen’s University Belfast, was reportedly played to a “People’s Postcode Lottery reception in Stormont on Tuesday.”

Her support for charity lotteries follows Alliance assembly member Sian Mulholland launching a consultation seeking views on her bill which aims to expand charity lottery fundraising in Northern Ireland.

National Lottery operator Allwyn, meanwhile, “has warned against ‘industrial-scale society lotteries’” in response.

In her supporting message, Clinton speaks of her and her husband Bill’s views of the charity sector across the world and in Northern Ireland specifically.

“Through our visits to Northern Ireland over the years, we know how vital the charity sector and civil society are,” she said.

“When we heard that People’s Postcode Lottery might come to Northern Ireland, we wanted to lend our voices in support.”

The People’s Postcode Lottery is a subscription-based lottery service where players pay £12.25 per month to be put into draws for cash prizes.

Its director of public affairs Malcolm Flemming suggested there was “huge untapped potential” for fundraising in Northern Ireland.

There, existing laws prevent large society lotteries from operating, the BBC reports.

While the introduction of this new vertical to the country will likely be backed by many, some will have been surprised to hear former presidential candidate Clinton making her thoughts on the topic known.

Can’t afford this

Elsewhere on the topic of lotteries, the Financial Times brought us the latest in media tycoon Richard Desmond’s attempt to sue the Gambling Commission over the bidding process for the fourth National Lottery licence.

According to the article, the Gambling Commission and Allwyn asked a judge this week “to make an order forcing Desmond’s Northern & Shell to set aside funds to ensure it can cover legal costs should he lose the high-profile case.”

The lottery giant said in written arguments that “There is good reason to doubt the claimants’ ability to meet an adverse costs order.”

If it loses the case, Desmond’s company Northern & Shell could be liable for at least £55m in legal costs, according to Allwyn’s filing, although if victorious it aims to scoop a much more significant £1.3bn in damages.

Allwyn sounded unfazed by this in its arguments, however, as it suggested that Desmond’s companies “do not have liquid assets of their own to pay their own costs, let alone those of the defendant or the Allwyn parties.”

The FT reports: “It argued this meant the claimants could walk away without paying should they lose the October case, as the court only has jurisdiction over those two companies in Desmond’s empire.”

It’s therefore demanding a ‘security for costs order’, which would require Desmond to provide financial security to cover legal expenses in the event of a loss.

In response, Northern & Shell’s lawyer insisted the company did have sufficient funds.

“He claimed it would be ‘fanciful to suggest’ that a company of its stature ‘would seek to tarnish its commercial reputation to avoid any adverse cost, which would in any event be such an insignificant proportion’,” according to the article.

With no end yet in sight, this is just the latest twist in the increasingly acrimonious legal challenge.

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