The Myth of "I’ll Get to It Later": Why We Overestimate Our Follow-Through and How to Fix It

Have you ever signed up for a gym membership, convinced that this time, you’d go regularly—only to find yourself making excuses weeks later? Or maybe you’ve grabbed a rebate form, positive that you’d mail it in for that sweet discount, yet it’s still sitting in a drawer, expired.

You’re not alone. Most of us believe we’ll follow through on our intentions. The problem? We’re terrible at predicting our own behavior.

A fascinating study by behavioral economists Robert Letzler and Joshua Tasoff tested just how bad we are at estimating our follow-through. Their findings are eye-opening—and might just change how you set goals forever.

The Cost of Overoptimism

Every day, companies, policymakers, and individuals make decisions based on what people say they’ll do. But what if our confidence is misplaced?

Consider this: In Letzler and Tasoff’s study, participants estimated they would mail in a rebate 79% of the time. The actual redemption rate? A measly 30%. That’s a 49-percentage-point gap between intention and action.

This isn’t just about lost rebates—it’s about understanding the hidden forces that shape our decisions. If we consistently overestimate our ability to complete tasks, what else are we getting wrong?

The Experiment: A Simple Task That Revealed a Complex Problem

To test overoptimism in task completion, the researchers designed a study that mimicked a mail-in rebate scenario:

• Participants filled out an online survey, predicting how likely they were to complete and return a form for a cash reward.
• They received the form in the mail and had to physically send it back to claim their money.
• The study tracked whether they actually followed through.

Participants were also split into four groups, each receiving a different behavioral nudge:

1. No nudge (Control Group) – Standard rebate process.
2. Information Nudge – Given past redemption statistics.
3. Reminder Nudge – Received email reminders before the deadline.
4. Simplification Nudge – A key obstacle was removed (they no longer had to save and submit a printout).

The question was simple: Could any of these nudges bridge the gap between what we think we’ll do and what we actually do?

The Big Reveal: The Smallest Change Had the Biggest Impact

When the results came in, the researchers found something shocking:

• The simplification nudge—removing a single friction point (the printout requirement)—had the biggest impact. It increased follow-through by 24 percentage points.
• The reminder and information nudges? Barely made a dent, reducing overoptimism by just 7–8 percentage points (and not significantly).

In short: It wasn’t about motivation or awareness—it was about making the task easier.

Think about that. We often blame laziness when we fail to follow through, but this study suggests the real culprit is the small hassles that stand in our way.

This research isn’t just about rebate forms—it’s about how we structure our lives. If we want to actually complete the tasks we set out to do, we need to make them as easy as possible. Here’s how:

1. Recognize the “Hassle Factor” in Your Plans

If a task involves multiple steps—no matter how small—your brain will find excuses. If you plan to work out, have your gym bag packed and ready. If you want to save money, automate your transfers instead of manually moving funds.

2. Simplify the Process

Want to make a habit stick? Reduce the friction involved. The study showed that even minor barriers—like printing a form—can derail us. Remove the extra steps wherever possible.

3. Assume You’re More Likely to Procrastinate Than You Think

Set up systems that don’t rely on willpower. If you know you tend to put things off, set deadlines, schedule reminders, or use accountability partners to keep yourself on track.

Next time you convince yourself that you’ll “get to it later,” pause. Ask yourself: What tiny obstacle might stop me? Then, remove it.

Because as this study proves, when it comes to follow-through, good intentions aren’t enough—small actions make the difference.

📖 Further Reading: Everyone Believes in Redemption