Tesla Earnings Update Q1 2025

Disclaimer: For Educational Purposes Only - Do Your Own Research -

My comments: My outlook hasn't changed and remains as bullish as ever. It was a very poor earnings report and missed analyst expectations by a mile. However their balance sheet has never been stronger, their current product offering and future product pipeline is the best in the world and as they continue to scale current and future products/revenue streams Tesla's earnings will explode as multiple s curves converge in a way we have never witnessed before.

When pairing this to a potentially improving macro environment, i.e trade deals get done and lower interest rates, this will create a micro & macro positive correlation further accelerating growth for 2H 2025 and into 2026.

Highlights: • EPS (non-GAAP): $0.27 vs. $0.39 est 

• EPS (GAAP): $0.12 

• Revenue: $19.33 vs. $21.1B est 

• Net income (GAAP): $409M 

• No way to sugar coat this earnings report. It was bad and they missed Analysts' forecast by 30%+. Not only did estimates come way down, to account for the lower earnings, Tesla reported 30%+ below Analysts' reduced consensus and at the bottom end of the range of estimates. Not good. 

• The only good thing I take away from the earnings is that Tesla was still profitable in the quarter. Added $400M to their balance sheet and now have a record $37 Billion in cash. This is often overlooked as investors focus on earnings growth however before you can focus on earnings growth solvency and independence of needing outside capital is critical especially in uncertain times like we've had the past few years and now have with tariffs. 

Product Highlights:

Robotaxi - Tesla remains on track for pilot launch of Robotaxi in Austin by June. Starting with the Model Y and plan to start with 10 to 20 car fleet. When asked if they would have someone remote into the cars they said not for safety or day to day rides however will have someone available in the off chance additional remote help is needed. They plan to scale to other cities in the US later this year and rapidly scale from there. 

• Elon Musk says autonomy will start to move the financial needle for Tesla starting in the middle to second half of 2026.

• EM: "I predict there will be millions of Tesla's operating autonomously by the second half of 2026."

• Elon Musk says FSD Unsupervised will be available on personally owned Teslas in several U.S. cities by the end of 2025.

FSD: Tesla drivers have now cumulatively driven over 3.6 billion miles on FSD (Supervised) as of the end of March, up from 2.9 billion at the end of December. That's an average of 8.88 million miles per day.

Optimus: Builds of Optimus on their Fremont pilot production line in 2025, as seen below, with wider deployment of a few thousand bots doing useful work across our factories later this year. 

• Elon Musk: "We expect to have thousands of Optimus robots working in Tesla factories this year; We expect to scale Optimus up faster than any product in history."

Energy Business: Tesla says Megafactory Shanghai produced >100 Megapacks in Q1 (mass production started in February). 

Tesla had a record quarter for Powerwall in Q1. "We achieved a fourth sequential record for Powerwall deployments, crossing 1 GWh for the first time, and continue to be supply constrained. Gross margin for the Energy Business improved sequentially." 

LCV (Lower Cost Vehicle) - 

• "Tesla has announced that its more affordable models remain on track to be introduced in the first half of 2025." 

• "During the (new Model Y) switchover, we also prepared our factories for the launch of new models later this year."

• They are working out last minute issues and that the ramp will be a little slower than they had hoped initially due to current trade/global issues.

• Tesla says the more affordable models that will be built in the coming months will resemble the form and shape of the cars that Tesla currently makes. "The key is that they will be affordable and that you'll be able to buy one." The Model Y is 70% similar to the Model 3 and I suspect a stripped down Model Y or 3, or possibly a hatchback / crossover vehicle will be introduced in the coming months. This will help drive volume and earnings growth. Although, again, the margin on auto is less than energy, software and services. This is similar to Apple. For a company to have the opportunity to sell high margin software and service you need to get more users to own your hardware. These lower cost models will help achieve that. 

• Producing the LCV on the same lines as the 3 and Y will boost utilization of existing factory investments, increasing fixed cost absorption and increasing gross margins.

Model Y: Tesla says its new Model Y ramp is outpacing all past production ramps.

Tesla Semi & CyberCab: 

• Tesla says that "We continued progress on the installation of lines for Tesla Semi in Nevada and the Cybercab in Texas. Both remain on track for volume production next year." 

• Tesla currently makes a Model Y every 33 seconds at their Shanghai facility. They're aiming to make Cyber Cabs every 5 seconds next year. 

Lithium Refining:  "Our lithium refining and cathode production plants are on track to start production in 2025, on-shoring production of critical battery materials to the U.S."

Global Trade / Tariffs : Tesla says the global trade situation "could have a meaningful impact on demand for our products in the near-term." "Uncertainty in the automotive and energy markets continues to increase as rapidly evolving trade policy adversely impacts the global supply chain and cost structure of Tesla and our peers. This dynamic, along with changing political sentiment, could have a meaningful impact on demand for our products in the near-term."

• However, given that Tesla has more localized production than any of their competitors the impact will be less than others but still meaningful. 

Tesla's Diner / drive in movie theater - almost done

Brand Damage?: Tesla says they had a record number of test drive globally in Q1 2025. Elon Musk says that Tesla is not seeing any demand issues that aren't macro related. "Absent from macro issues, we don't see any reduction in demand."

I continue to be amazed and how fast technology is advancing. It's at a pace very few can even comprehend. Strap in, the future is going to be exciting.

Thanks for reading and let me know your thoughts in the comments.

SJ