U.S. CRE Outlook 2026 Shows Resilient Optimism Amid Global Volatility
Executive Summary
Deloitte’s 2026 Commercial Real Estate Outlook paints a cautiously optimistic picture for the year ahead. Despite persistent macroeconomic volatility, trade disruptions, and regulatory uncertainty, global real estate executives remain resilient, viewing the current slowdown as a pause—not a downturn.
Surveying over 850 commercial real estate leaders across North America, Europe, and Asia-Pacific, Deloitte’s findings reveal that 75% of respondents plan to increase investments within the next 12–18 months, while 83% expect revenue growth by year-end. The sentiment index stands at 65, down slightly from 68 in 2025 but still well above the 2023 low of 44.
Growth drivers include renewed U.S. investment activity, the expanding digital infrastructure sector, and the increasing role of private credit and alternative lenders. At the same time, executives cite challenges such as limited capital availability, elevated interest rates, and currency volatility. Despite these headwinds, Deloitte concludes that opportunity lies in adaptability—investors that remain agile are best positioned to capitalize on an evolving CRE landscape.
Global CRE Sentiment: Confidence Amid Caution
Although confidence has softened from last year’s highs, most executives remain optimistic. Sally Ann Flood, Deloitte’s U.S. Real Estate Sector Leader, noted that sentiment “remains net positive even while uncertainty exists.”
Much of this caution stems from policy instability, shifting trade dynamics, and capital cost pressures. Yet, CRE professionals recognize that realignment brings opportunity. As global economies adjust to slower growth, investors are focusing on repositioning portfolios, refinancing at improved valuations, and pursuing assets aligned with new economic drivers like AI and digital infrastructure.
Top Concerns for 2026
Respondents ranked their five most pressing risks:
Cybersecurity, once a top-two concern, has dropped to sixth as financial and regulatory risks take priority. More than half of surveyed companies are managing property loan maturities in 2026—many resulting from “extend-and-pretend” deals during the past two years.
Flood described the situation as a “tale of two debt markets”—one where legacy loans remain challenged by refinancing pressures, and another where new originations show renewed vitality.
Lending and Capital Flows: New Money Returns
Despite refinancing hurdles, the lending environment is improving. Deloitte reports that new loan origination volumes rose 13% from late 2024 to early 2025 and surged 90% year-over-year, signaling rising lender confidence.
As property values reset, liquidity is increasing. Alternative capital sources—private credit funds and high-net-worth investors—now account for 24% of all CRE lending, well above the 10-year average of 14%. Deloitte estimates $585 billion in CRE “dry powder” ready for deployment, underscoring significant capital on the sidelines awaiting entry.
CMBS and bank lending are also recovering. CMBS issuance for single-borrower transactions grew 110% year-over-year through early 2025, while banks are reemerging with more competitive pricing structures.
Flood emphasized, “New loans often carry better terms and valuations, but success depends on how effectively firms manage existing portfolio risk while capturing new lending opportunities.”
Sector Outlook: Where Growth Is Concentrated
Executives identified the digital economy—encompassing data centers and telecommunications infrastructure—as the leading opportunity over the next 12–18 months. Deloitte found that in nine major markets, 100% of new data center projects were preleased, driven by surging AI adoption and cloud demand.
Other top-performing sectors include:
Flood noted that demand for high-quality office assets—paired with a lack of new construction—has created competition among tenants in select submarkets. “There is a renewed interest in office reentry programs and flight-to-quality trends, especially for modernized spaces,” she said.
Technology and AI Integration Challenges
While enthusiasm for AI adoption is growing, 46% of respondents said their firms are still early in implementation or facing hurdles such as lack of expertise, integration issues, or resistance to change.
Flood emphasized that AI’s transformative potential lies in targeted, measurable applications. “When deployed strategically, AI can enhance tenant relations, accelerate lease drafting, and improve portfolio management,” she noted. Deloitte expects wider adoption to yield operational efficiency and data-driven decision-making across CRE enterprises.
Conclusion
Deloitte’s 2026 outlook reflects a market recalibrating but not retreating. While elevated borrowing costs, policy uncertainty, and currency volatility remain key risks, capital markets are gradually unlocking. Investors and lenders are showing renewed confidence, supported by alternative financing and technology-driven opportunities.
With record levels of undeployed capital and rising demand for digital and logistics infrastructure, 2026 may mark a turning point toward sustainable, tech-enabled growth. The message from Deloitte’s findings is clear: adaptability and proactive portfolio management will define the next phase of CRE resilience.
At Gallagher & Mohan, we help real estate investors, developers, and lenders translate market insights into actionable strategies. From financial modeling and underwriting to asset management and debt optimization, our expert teams deliver the clarity and execution needed to stay ahead in a changing CRE environment.
Partner with us to uncover growth opportunities amid uncertainty and strengthen your investment performance for 2026 and beyond. Book your free consultation today.