Tips for Risk Identification Strategies

If my boss asked me to "assess our risk surface area and fraud priorities", this is how I would get it done by 5PM tomorrow. Step by step process. 1 - Pull our last 90 days of fraud data. Not just the obvious stuff like chargeback rates, but the full spread: login attempts, account creation patterns, payment declines... everything. Why 90 days? Because fraudsters love to exploit seasonal patterns, and we need that context. 2 - Map out every single entry point where money moves. I'm talking checkout flows, refund processes, loyalty point redemptions... even those "small" marketing promotion codes everyone forgets about. (Fun fact: I once found a six-figure exposure in a forgotten legacy gift card system) 3 - Time for some real talk with our front-line teams. Customer service reps, payment ops folks, even the engineering team that handles our API integrations. These people see the weird edge cases before they show up in our dashboards. 4 - Create a heat map scoring each entry point on three factors: → Financial exposure (how much could we lose?) → Attack complexity (how hard is it to exploit?) → Detection capability (can we even see it happening?) 5 - Cross-reference our current fraud rules and models against this heat map. Brutal honesty required here – where are our blind spots? Which high-risk areas are we treating like low-risk ones? 6 - Pull transaction data for our top 10 riskiest areas and run scenario analysis. If fraud rates doubled tomorrow, what would break first? (It's usually not what leadership thinks) 7 - Document our current resource allocation vs. risk levels. Are we spending 80% of our time on 20% of our risk? Been there, fixed that. 8 - Draft a prioritized roadmap based on: → Quick wins (high impact, low effort) → Critical gaps (high risk, low coverage) → Strategic investments (future-proofing our defenses) 9 - Prepare three scenarios for leadership: → Minimum viable protection → Balanced approach → Fort Knox mode Because let's be real, budget conversations need options. 10 - Package it all up with clear metrics and KPIs for each priority area. Nothing gets funded without numbers to back it up. ps... Make it visual. Leadership loves a good heat map, and it makes complex risk assessments digestible. Trust me on this one

Here's my cheat sheet for a first-pass quantitative risk assessment. Use this as your “day-one” playbook when leadership says: “Just give us a first pass. How bad could this get?” 1. Frame the business decision - Write one sentence that links the decision to money or mission. Example: “Should we spend $X to prevent a ransomware-driven hospital shutdown?” 2. Break the decision into a risk statement - Identify the chain: Threat → Asset → Effect → Consequence. Capture each link in a short phrase. Example: “Cyber criminal group → business email → data locked → widespread outage” 3. Harvest outside evidence for frequency and magnitude - Where has this, or something close, already happened? Examples: Industry base rates, previous incidents and near misses from your incident response team, analogous incidents in other sectors 4. Fill the gaps with calibrated experts - Run a quick elicitation for frequency and magnitude (5th, 50th, and 95th percentiles). - Weight experts by calibration scores if you have them; use a simple average if you don’t. 5. Assemble priors and simulate - Feed frequencies and losses into a Monte Carlo simulation. Use Excel, Python, R, whatever’s handy. 6. Stress-test the story - Host a 30-minute premortem: “It’s a year from now. The worst happened. What did we miss?” - Adjust inputs or add/modify scenarios, then re-run the analysis. 7. Deliver the first-cut answer - Provide leadership with executive-ready extracts. Examples: Range: “10% chance annual losses exceed $50M.” Sensitivity drivers: Highlight the inputs that most affect tail loss Value of information: Which dataset would shrink uncertainty fastest. Done. You now have a defensible, numbers-based initial assessment. Good enough for a go/no-go decision and a clear roadmap for deeper analysis. This fits on a sticky note. #riskassessment #RiskManagement #cyberrisk

There ya have it folks... It makes it difficult to bounce back from a mindset that fails to acknowledge the hazards that lead to incident and or injury are just a stones throw away! So what can you do to help? Your first step in protecting workers involves accurately identifying potential hazards in your workplace. You're looking for all the things and situations that could possibly harm your workers. Identifying hazards starts with a workplace inspection. This includes walking around your site: *Observing how work tasks are being performed *Assessing the equipment workers are using, and considering how that equipment is being used *Analyzing the design and layout of the work areas This is a proactive process. Ask yourself, what is it about the activities, processes, or substances used that could injure your workers? Hazards generally arise from the following aspects of work: *The physical work environment *Equipment, materials, and substances used at the workplace *Work tasks and how they are performed *Work design When you work in a place every day, it's easy to overlook some hazards. Here are some tips to help you identify risks in your workplace: *For equipment, check manufacturer instructions or safety data sheets. *Think about long-term health hazards such as high levels of noise. *Consider non-routine operations, such as maintenance, cleaning operations, or changes in production cycles. *For chemicals, check manufacturer instructions or safety data sheets. Remember to think about long-term health hazards such as exposure to harmful substances. *Do an overall review of your incident and worker health records, as well as records of near misses or worker complaints. These can help identify less obvious hazards. People tend to deal with incidents as they occur, but viewing all that has occurred over time can alert you to a pattern and help you identify a hazard that may be systemic. If you're a large employer, our Employer Health and Safety Planning Tool Kit may help. *Consult with your workers about any health and safety issues they've encountered in their work. It is important to keep lines of communication open with your workers, as they can likely identify risks to both workers and production. Survey them anonymously, asking open-ended questions. You may even choose to recognize workers who identify hazards in advance, since this helps business in the long run. *Keep up with the information about hazards and risks relevant to your specific industry or type of work. Consult with industry associations, manufacturers, and suppliers — all of which can provide you with valuable information. Also check out our Industry health and safety data, which shows detailed data for any industry. *Review our resources and information on common risks in specific industries, including common hazards and exposures and tools, equipment, and machinery. Once you have a documented list of hazards, you're ready to begin assessing and controlling the risks

Risk Management Made Simple: A Straightforward Approach for Every Project Manager Risk management is crucial to project success, yet it's often seen as complex and intimidating. Here’s a simple approach to managing risks in your projects: 1/ Identify Risks Early: → Start with a risk brainstorm: technical, operational, financial, and external risks. → Collaborate with your team to identify potential threats and opportunities. → Involve diverse team members to gain different perspectives on possible risks. → Use historical data and past project experiences to spot risks that may arise again. 2/ Assess and Prioritize: → Use a risk matrix to assess impact and likelihood. → Prioritize high-impact risks that could derail your project’s success. → Make sure you reassess risks periodically to capture any changes in impact or probability. → Don’t forget to consider opportunities as well—these should be prioritized, too! 3/ Develop Mitigation Plans: → For each priority risk, develop a strategy to minimize or avoid it. → Plan for contingencies to stay prepared for the unexpected. → Ensure the mitigation plans are realistic and actionable. → Set up early-warning systems so you can act quickly if needed. 4/ Assign Ownership: → Assign a team member to own each risk, ensuring accountability. → Ensure they track progress and adjust strategies as necessary. → Empower the risk owner with resources and authority to implement mitigation plans. → Ensure a straightforward escalation process if the risk owner needs help. 5/ Monitor and Update Regularly: → Schedule regular risk reviews and status updates. → Keep an eye on emerging risks and adjust plans as your project evolves. → Maintain an open feedback loop with stakeholders on the evolving risk landscape. → Use project management tools to automate risk tracking and reminders. 6/ Communicate Effectively: → Keep stakeholders informed about risk status and changes. → Be transparent about potential impacts and solutions. → Ensure communication is clear and consistent across all levels of the team. → Adjust your communication style based on your stakeholders' needs and preferences. Managing risk doesn’t have to be complicated. Focus on 𝗶𝗱𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗳𝘆𝗶𝗻𝗴, 𝗽𝗿𝗶𝗼𝗿𝗶𝘁𝗶𝘇𝗶𝗻𝗴, and 𝗮𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗹𝘆; you'll set your project up for success. What’s one risk management tip you live by? Let’s share some wisdom!