How Climate Change Affects Development Initiatives

Understanding how the water sector is integrated into country climate and development reports(CCDRs) is essential for identifying emerging strategies that address both climate risks and development priorities.   This report by The World Bank Water examines how water-related climate risks and actions are captured in CCDRs published between 2022 and 2024. By analyzing over 3,900 pages of text using advanced text-mining techniques, the study uncovers the central role of water in climate and development strategies. Data visualizations reveal that water challenges are among the most frequently highlighted issues in CCDRs, with many countries recognizing water as a critical element for economic development, human well-being, and environmental sustainability. With thirty-nine countries conducting in-depth analyses of the water-climate-development nexus, the report underscores the importance of water-sector reforms in driving adaptation and mitigation efforts worldwide.   Key messages: Most critical climate change impact channels discussed in the CCDRs are directly or indirectly related to water, including water shocks affecting agricultural and energy production, water-related diseases impacting health and labor productivity, and water-related natural disasters and resulting infrastructure damages. While estimates of the impact differ across countries, the poor and vulnerable are often disproportionately affected. Water sector actions can contribute to both climate mitigation and adaptation. Approximately 10 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions are linked to water-related activities. The water sector offers significant untapped potential for climate mitigation and plays a crucial role in providing innovative solutions necessary for the transition to green energy. Investments in water adaptation deliver substantial social and economic benefits. The investment requirements in the water sector are substantial, and the financing gap is equally significant. The private sector needs to play a crucial role in bridging this investment gap. To encourage private participation, it is essential to establish clear and transparent governance and policies, implement blended financing mechanisms, and adopt pricing incentives that reward sustainable water investment and management. Demand-side management often proves to be more cost-effective in addressing water supply shortages than investing in supply-side solutions. Effective water demand management involves adjusting water tariffs to reflect the true value of water in water allocation and use, increasing consumer awareness, and strengthening regulations and technologies to improve water use efficiency. You can read the full report here. https://lnkd.in/gE7xBi_8 Also read blog that the UN Special Envoy for Water Retno Marsudi and I have co-authored. https://lnkd.in/g7uAe8u5

I am thrilled to share the launch of the World Bank Group’s Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) for Tanzania. This report outlines a roadmap for integrating climate considerations into Tanzania’s development agenda, aligned with Vision 2050. 🌍 Key Insights: - Climate change could reduce Tanzania’s economic growth by up to 4% by 2050. - 2.6 million people could fall into poverty, with 13 million more facing internal migration. - The CCDR provides pathways for resilient, low-carbon, and inclusive growth by 2050. 📈 Five Actionable Pathways: 1. Equip People to Cope with Climate Risks: Strengthen social protection and improve access to essential services. 2. Optimize Land and Water Use: Invest in climate-smart technologies and improve management of resources. 3. Prioritize Resilient Infrastructure: Develop climate-resilient and low-carbon transport, digital, and energy infrastructure. 4. Strengthen Institutional Support: Establish solid governance frameworks and integrate climate considerations into policy and planning. 5. Mobilize Climate Financing: Leverage diverse financial instruments and attract private investments. This report calls all stakeholders to unite and forge a sustainable future for Tanzania. IFC - International Finance Corporation The World Bank #ClimateAction #SustainableDevelopment #Tanzania #Vision2050 #ClimateChange #EconomicGrowth #Resilience https://lnkd.in/dSb7hBfk

How do we estimate climate change macroeconomic risks in The World Bank's Country Climate and Development Reports? We just published a methodological paper that present a methodology used in many of them, with our partners at Industrial Economics (IEc). The methodology captures a set of impact channels through which climate change affects the economy by (1) connecting a set of biophysical models to the macroeconomic model and (2) exploring a set of development and climate scenarios. The paper summarizes the results for five countries, highlighting the sources and magnitudes of their vulnerability - with estimated gross domestic product losses in 2050 exceeding 10 percent of gross domestic product in some countries and scenarios, although only a small set of impact channels is included. The paper also presents estimates of the macroeconomic gains from sector-level adaptation interventions, considering their upfront costs and avoided climate impacts and finding significant net gross domestic product gains from adaptation opportunities identified in the Country Climate and Development Reports. Finally, the paper discusses the limits of current modeling approaches, and their complementarity with empirical approaches based on historical data series. I think there are strong complementarity between empirical approaches (which measure historical aggregated impacts and are key for calibration and validation) and process-based modeling (which can consider possible thresholds in the future and run policy counterfactuals). The paper is here: https://lnkd.in/gpAURDV5. Comments welcome! Kodzovi ABALO, Ph.D, Brent Boehlert, Thanh Bui (Tania), Andrew Burns, Unnada Chewpreecha, Charl Jooste, Florent McIsaac, Kim Smet, Kenneth Strzepek, and Diego Castillo and Heather Ruberl.

Most of you have heard me talking about the social dimensions of climate change over the years—how climate impacts don't affect everyone equally, and how climate solutions can inadvertently leave the most vulnerable behind. I'm excited to share that our new World Bank report finally brings these insights together in a comprehensive framework for more effective climate action. "Understanding Social Vulnerability for More Effective Climate Strategies" draws on extensive analysis across eight countries in Southern and Eastern Africa to show how social vulnerability shapes who gets hurt by climate change and who can access protection. Our key finding: without understanding how poverty, social exclusion, and limited agency interact with climate risks, even well-intentioned climate investments can fail to reach those who need them most—or worse, make their situations more precarious. The report demonstrates how mapping social vulnerability can transform climate planning. Instead of generic approaches, we can design climate strategies that are genuinely inclusive, prioritize the right investments, and build resilience from the ground up. This research emerged from our work on Country Climate and Development Reports (CCDRs), where we saw repeatedly how climate and development goals align when we center social inclusion. For those working on climate policy, adaptation planning, or development programming, this report provides practical tools for ensuring your work strengthens rather than bypasses vulnerable communities. Because ultimately, climate resilience isn't just about infrastructure and technology—it's about people. Read the full report: https://lnkd.in/dX9Ex7fU #ClimateChange #SocialVulnerability #ClimateJustice #Development #ClimateResilience

Great read from ODI for those of us thinking about #climatetech and innovation in emerging markets. Big question - how to wed sustainable and socio-economic growth? The challenge is even more acute in lower-income communities and countries, but even for oil-rich/wealthier nations. "A green industrial revolution is increasingly being heralded as a way to reduce emissions and create jobs following the examples of the US Inflation Reduction Act. While green manufacturing opportunities may be attracting the attention of politicians and journalists, all that is green is not necessarily gold. Climate change will have impacts on the prospects for structural transformation that run beyond the ‘green economy’." Some key forces at play here, taken from the article: 1. The role of agriculture: Agriculture is a critical pillar to many low income countries' economic transformations (both currently and in the future). However, current emission pledges set us on a path approaching 3°C of global warming, implying a three-fold increased risk to agricultural yields compared even with 2°C warming. In short, farms will be less productive – especially in countries where agriculture currently contributes more to GDP and employment. 2. The cascading effects of disasters: Boad consensus that disasters suppress growth and poverty reduction at least in the short term. Those costs fall hardest on poorer, more vulnerable countries, many of which face an increasing climate-debt trap. 3. The changing value of natural resource endowments: Over the medium-term, climate change is likely to change the relative value of countries’ natural resource endowments. At some point, this will be bad news for countries with large oil and gas reserves who will face diminishing public revenues and a deteriorating balance of trade as international demand declines. Countries that have historically imported fossil fuels to meet their energy needs would stand to benefit. 4. The ‘green squeeze’ on access to markets and finance: The size of domestic markets and demand is a major constraint to development in relatively poor and/or small countries. High-income countries are now introducing a suite of climate policies that could reduce access to their markets, choking off a critical path for sustained poverty reduction. ODI has promoted the idea of the ‘green squeeze’ to describe these new constraints on countries’ economic prospects. 5. Leapfrogging to cleaner technologies: Countries are now scrambling to access, and preferably originate and produce, the green technologies of the future. However, most countries are technological followers and likely to remain so. Even if they create an enabling policy environment at home, technology costs and intellectual property regimes will be heavily determined by the raft of rich countries attempting to fire their own green economic engines – including the US, EU and Australia

Some interesting The World Bank World Bank Development Economics Policy Research Working Papers released this past month: [Part 2/2, Part 1: https://lnkd.in/gKQ-C7cy] 📊 Diana Garcia, Nishant Yonzan, and Christoph Lakner take the long view of global inequality. Global income inequality increased from 1820 to 1990 as richer countries' incomes grew faster than those of poorer countries. However, from 1990 to 2020, inequality decreased as populous, poorer countries like China narrowed the income gap with richer nations, driven by growth in average incomes. The Covid-19 pandemic reversed this trend, causing the largest increase in global income inequality in three decades, and future trends will depend on income growth patterns and climate challenges. https://lnkd.in/g4B345Md 🏝️ Combining remote sensing, geospatial data, and household surveys Chitra Balasubramanian, Sandra Baquié, and Alan Fuchs develop a high-resolution assessments of the exposure and vulnerability of the Middle East and North Africa region's population and poor people to different climate shocks. They estimate that almost the entirety of the extreme poor population is exposed to at least one climate shock https://lnkd.in/geAKDDjq 🪴 Analyzing data from nearly 160,000 firms in 134 countries over 15 years Claudia N. Berg, Luca Bettarelli, Davide Furceri, Dr Michael Ganslmeier, Arti Grover, Megan Lang, and Marc Schiffbauer look at how firms are adapting to climate change. They find that market imperfections in low- and middle-income countries hinder firms' ability to adapt, with small and medium-sized firms being the most vulnerable, experiencing a 12 percent revenue decline in years with temperatures 0.5°C above historical averages. Policy constraints such as limited financing, burdensome regulations, and unsafe conditions further increase adaptation costs, reducing economic resilience to climate change. https://lnkd.in/gHCcEPbv

🌐🇹🇯 In #Tajikistan, climate change-related damages to infrastructure, livestock productivity, and agriculture could reduce real GDP by 5-6% by 2050, according to the Country Climate and Development Report for #Tajikistan (#CCDR) recently presented by The World Bank in #Dushanbe. 📊 Climate impacts in the strategic Vakhsh River Basin, where 90% of the country’s electricity is generated, highlight the pressing climate and development challenges. 💵 The annual cost of land degradation in Tajikistan is estimated at nearly $325 million, a figure expected to rise. 😷 Additionally, air pollution is a major concern in the country, causing 84 deaths per 100,000 people—the 2nd highest rate in #CentralAsia. 🧭 What can Tajikistan do to rejuvenate its economy and create jobs while protecting its people from the growing risks of extreme weather events driven by #climatechange? 💡Learn more in our new flagship report with detailed findings and recommendations: https://lnkd.in/eJv4X5zf Ozan Sevimli Bakhrom Ziyaev David Knight Strukova, Elena Sarah Cooper #WorldBankforTajikistan #WBforTJ