Understanding the Global Battery Supply Chain

Confronting China’s grip on graphite for batteries China controls more than 95% of the global supply of battery-grade graphite, which is the largest component by weight in lithium-ion batteries. This creates a significant vulnerability for U.S. economic and national security, as graphite is essential for electric vehicle batteries, consumer electronics, defense applications like drones, grid-scale energy storage systems, and steel-making. Stanford Energy's STEER initiative has been working with over 150 industry experts to develop potential solutions through two major convening in Washington DC (September 2024 and May 2025), in work led by Karan Bhuwalka, Adrian Yao, Sally Benson and colleagues. Key insight from Stanford's quantitative techno-economic analysis: ✅ High estimated U.S. costs, more than twice that of China, stem from elevated capital expenditures and lack of secondary markets for manufacturing byproducts that help Chinese producers offset expenses Potential answers: ✅ Execute offtake contracts with price floors to reduce investor risk ✅ Leverage abundant carbon feedstocks in the United States (such as natural gas and biomass) to produce high-quality graphite ✅ Shorten the timeline necessary to qualify graphite produced in new factories ✅ Develop coherent testing standards and performance characteristics that can confidently map graphite's physical properties to long-term battery performance See article in Comments

U.S. and Ukraine Sign Critical Minerals Deal: Why Critical Minerals Are the Next Global Battleground The U.S. and Ukraine announced a minerals agreement after months of tense negotiations, signaling how urgently world powers are moving to secure supplies of the metals that power our modern lives. While most headlines focus on tariff spikes and shifting trade corridors, there’s another power struggle unfolding—one that could reshape every smartphone, EV, and fighter jet on the planet. 🔑 Why Critical Minerals Matter • 🔋 Clean-energy pivot: Lithium, nickel & cobalt power EV batteries; rare earths drive wind turbines. • 🚀 Tech & defense edge: Gallium, titanium, tungsten and tantalum are crucial for semiconductors, aerospace, and precision munitions. • 📈 Soaring demand: Battery metal demand could grow 10× by 2030—far outpacing current mining capacity. 🌍 Who Holds the Keys • 🇨🇳 China: Dominates rare-earth processing (~70%). • 🇷🇺 Russia: Rich in titanium, palladium, and rare-earths—crucial for aerospace and electronics. • 🇨🇩 DRC: Supplies ~60% of cobalt, much refined by Chinese firms. • 🇧🇷 Brazil & 🇮🇩 Indonesia: Major players in nickel and niobium. • 🇿🇦 South Africa: Key source of platinum group metals and manganese. • 🇺🇦 Ukraine: Partnered with the U.S. after months of tense talks to develop rare-earth and lithium capacity. • 🇦🇺🇺🇸 Australia & U.S.: Leading lithium producers investing in processing independence. • 🇪🇺 EU & 🇨🇦 Canada: Fast-tracking exploration & streamlining permitting via the EU’s Critical Raw Materials Act. 🌐 A Web of Interdependence No single country can source, refine, and secure all it needs. Global supply chains are deeply entangled—and increasingly strategic. 📊 Governments Are Racing to Lock In Supply • 🇺🇸 U.S.: New MOU with Ukraine, talks with DRC, Inflation Reduction Act incentives. • 🇨🇦 Canada: Extended 15% tax credit and streamlined mining approvals. • 🇪🇺 EU: €9M joint procurement platform and 47 flagship projects. • 🌏 Elsewhere: Japan–GCC partnerships; Australia expanding into Africa and SE Asia. ⚠️ Risks & Opportunities • Geopolitical chokepoints and export curbs • ESG pressure on mining operations • First-mover gains in processing and recycling 🧭 What You Can Do Now 1. Map your mineral dependencies to uncover single-source vulnerabilities 2. Engage policymakers early on offtake deals and ESG standards 3. Use scenario planning and risk assessments to prepare for disruptions 4. Invest in crisis management and resilience strategies before they’re needed In today’s interdependent world, no company—or country—can afford to go it alone. Helping organizations plan for disruption and global complexity is what we do. If you’re looking to strengthen your approach, we’d be happy to help.

🔋 The Battery Material Crunch: A $400B Market Facing Critical Supply Challenges Just analyzed McKinsey's latest battery outlook and the numbers are staggering. By 2030, we're looking at a market worth over $400 billion, but here's the catch - we're heading for some serious material bottlenecks. Key findings that should wake us up: 📊 Lithium faces a massive 55% supply deficit by 2030 Demand: 3,000 kt Projected Supply: Only 1,500 kt 95% will go to batteries (up from 60% today) ⚡ Nickel's quality challenge is real Need: 4,200 kt by 2030 Projected shortfall: 340 kt (8%) The real story? It's not just about volume - we need high-grade Class 1 nickel, and that's a whole different game 🌍 Geographic concentration is a major risk: Lithium: 4 countries control high-grade deposits Cobalt: 78% from DRC Nickel: Indonesia dominates with 52% 💰 The investment needed is enormous: 120-150 new battery factories required Capacity must jump from 700 GWh to 4,700 GWh $121B for cell manufacturing alone 🔄 The recycling opportunity: Material available for recycling will explode: 2020: 200 kt 2030: 1,400 kt 2040: 7,300 kt This isn't just about EVs - it's about energy independence, sustainability, and a complete industrial transformation. The winners will be those who secure their supply chains now. The kicker? This transition could create 18 million jobs and cut 70 GtCO2e from transport emissions by 2050. Thoughts? How are you seeing these supply challenges play out in your industry? Video: The Metals Company harvesting deep sea nodules rich in Cobalt, Nickel, Copper and Manganese #Batteries #EVs #CleanTech #SupplyChain #Sustainability #GreenTransition #EnergyTransition #Energy

I am often asked what needs to happen to build a global battery value chain. My first reaction, seeing all parts of the value chain, is what each needs to succeed, and lets look at lithium, the area I have spent the most time on recently: 1) Lithium miners need access to refining technology and capital to bring low-cost products to market. 2) There are close to 100 DLE/DLP companies, all vying to bring cutting-edge technology to help reduce lithium production costs. However, to see commercialization occur, someone must invest in the "winners." These are those that drop the cost curve and do not see it increase. 3) There are large investment groups, be it in the Middle East, large PE Firms, or oil and gas players, that are very interested in investing but do not have the expertise. 4) Finally, there are the OEMs, who very much want to support a low-cost industry that can supply localized material from a trustworthy source. They are willing to use offtake agreements to entice supply, but it needs to be low-cost and actually come to market. Someone will put all of these parts together, and you can see how this can all work together for everyone's benefit. Let's work together to ensure that this industry grows to supply the highest quality, lowest cost, and most ESG-friendly material possible.