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Massachusetts Institute of Technology

1. The document discusses three probability problems: 2. It asks if two events A and B can be independent if A is a subset of B. 3. It describes an electrical system with three identical subsystems and asks the probability that each subsystem and the overall system are operational. 4. It describes a chess tournament procedure and asks for the probabilities of different outcomes at various stages.

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27 views2 pages

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

1. The document discusses three probability problems: 2. It asks if two events A and B can be independent if A is a subset of B. 3. It describes an electrical system with three identical subsystems and asks the probability that each subsystem and the overall system are operational. 4. It describes a chess tournament procedure and asks for the probabilities of different outcomes at various stages.

Uploaded by

Spiritual89
Copyright
© Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Department of Electrical Engineering & Computer Science 6.041/6.431: Probabilistic Systems Analysis (Fall 2010)
Tutorial 1 September 16/17, 2010 1. Let A and B be events such that A B . Can A and B be independent? 2. An electrical system consists of identical components that are operational with probability p independently of other components. The components are connected in three subsystems, as shown in the gure. The system is operational if there is a path that starts at point A, ends at point B, and consists of operational components. This is the same as requiring that all three subsystems are operational. What are the probabilities that the three subsystems, as well as the entire system, are operational?
1 A 2 3 B

Figure 1: A system of identical components that consists of the three subsystems 1, 2, and 3. The system is operational if there is a path that starts at point A, ends at point B, and consists of operational components. 3. The Chess Problem. This years Belmont chess champion is to be selected by the following procedure. Bo and Ci, the leading challengers, rst play a two-game match. If one of them wins both games, he gets to play a two-game second round with Al, the current champion. Al retains his championship unless a second round is required and the challenger beats Al in both games. If Al wins the initial game of the second round, no more games are played. Furthermore, we know the following: The probability that Bo will beat Ci in any particular game is 0.6. The probability that Al will beat Bo in any particular game is 0.5. The probability that Al will beat Ci in any particular game is 0.7. Assume no tie games are possible and all games are independent. (a) Determine the apriori probabilities that i. the second round will be required. ii. Bo will win the rst round. iii. Al will retain his championship this year. (b) Given that the second round is required, determine the conditional probabilities that Page 1 of 2

Massachusetts Institute of Technology


Department of Electrical Engineering & Computer Science 6.041/6.431: Probabilistic Systems Analysis (Fall 2010)
i. Bo is the surviving challenger. ii. Al retains his championship. (c) Given that the second round was required and that it comprised only one game, what is the conditional probability that it was Bo who won the rst round?

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