2.9 Problems 29 PE) P(E) (6) P(E, 1E,)=1- P(E, | Ey). (7) IfE, and E are mutually exclusive, then P(E, | E>) = P(E). (8) P(E, |B, UV Bs) =1- P(E, IE UV Es). (9) EVE=S. (10) PCE, | Ey)PCE,) = PCE | E,)PCE}). (5) P(E, 1B) = 4 ™ 44aasa aon 2.8 CONCLUDING REMARKS The concept of set theory, the fundamental mathematical formulation required to cal- culate the probability of failure or reliability, is introduced in this chapter. Every prob- Jem with uncertain quantities/events must have a sample space, which is either discrete or continuous. Each possible outcome represents a sample point within the sample space, and each event must contain at least one sample point. Graphical representations of a sample space and the sample points or events are made using Venn diagrams. In many practical problems, several events need to be combined to obtain the nec- essary information, requiring combination rules in terms of union and intersection of events. In this context, mutually exclusive, statistically independent, and collectively exhaustive events have also been defined, An event only contains information on the sample points in it; the mathematics of probability described in three axioms are nec- essary to utilize this information. These axioms lead to the computation of the proba- bility of unions and intersections of events, the multiplication rule, the theorem of total probability, and Bayes’ theorem. It is extremely important that the reader understand these concepts, since they are the basis of all discussions in the following chapters. 2.9 PROBLEMS 2.1 There ate two cars in the garage. The operating condition of each car can be described as excellent (E), good (G), or bad (B). Identify all the possible combinations of operating con. ditions of these two cars (.e., identify all the sample points). Suppose there are five cars and, each car can have the three operating conditions just described. Calculate the total number Of sample points. It is not necessary to identify each sample point. 2.2. A200 x 200 sq ft land lot is available for a subdivision. Each plot within the subdivision can have a size of 100 x 100 sq ft (Type A) or 50 x 50 sq ft (Type B). How many different ways can the lot be subdivided? Do not consider the ordering of lots A and B. 2.3 Asite selected for a major construction project has the following wind speed data available, ‘When the wind blows between east (0°) and north (90°), the maximum recorded wind speed is 120 mph; when it blows north (90°) and west (180°), the maximum recorded wind speed is 70 mph; when it blows between west (180°) and south (270°), the maximum wind speed is 110 mph; and when it blows between south (270°) and east (0 or 360"), the maximum ‘wind speed is 80 mph, (@) Draw a Venn diagram for the sample space. (b) Ifan event & is defined as wind speed greater than 100 mph blowing from the north and northeast, show the event on the Venn diagram.30 Chapter 2 Mathematics of Probability 2.4 Suppose the foundation, superstructure, and interior of a residential building have been eval- uated by a building inspector. The foundation and the superstructure can be rated as being in good (G) or bad (B) condition. The interior can be rated as excellent (E), good (G), or bad (B). The sample point GGG indicates that the foundation, superstructure, and interior are all in good condition. (a) Identify all the sample points in the sample space. (b) For marketing the property, all three items must be in good condition or better. Identify the sample points that make the property marketable. 2.5 A structure is supported on four foundations, namely A, B, C, and D. Suppose Foundation A cannot settle, However, Foundations B, C, and D can have the following amount of settlement: Foundation B: 0 cm or 1 om Foundation C: 0 cm or 2 em Foundation D: 0 em or 3 em Sample point (0, 0, 0, 0) indicates that all the four supports did not settle. (a) Tdentify all the sample points in the sample space. (b) Differential settlement between adjacent supports of 2 cm or more will cause excessive cracks in the structure, Identify these sample points. 2.6 The construction of a residential building consists of foundation (F), superstructure (S), plumbing (P), electrical work (E), and painting (N), as shown in Figure P2.6. The possible durations in weeks for each of these activities are shown in the figure. The foundation and the superstructure must be constructed in sequence; however, the plumbing, electrical work, and painting proceed simultaneously. (a) Identify all the possible completion times of this construction project. (Hint: Calculate completion time for events like FSP, FSE, FSN, and so on). Foundation Superstructure FI3.4) ‘S(10,12) Duration in months Figure P2.6 Construction Activities 2.7 Two small rivers A and B meet and become a larger river C. For a new housing project, the flood level, defined as the water level above the mean level of river C, is under considera- tion. Past records indicate that a I-ft change in the water level of river A causes a 0.5-ft change in the water level of river C, and a I-ft change in the water level of river B causes a 0.25-ft change in the water level of river C. The flood levels of rivers A and B can be esti- mated precisely. However, they are equally likely to be 0, 1, 2, and 3 ft for both rivers. Assuming statistical independence of flood levels between rivers A and B, what is the prob- ability that the flood level of river C will exceed 2 ft? 28 To study the relationship between the relative density D, of a sand deposit and the corre- sponding standard penetration test value or NV value, 50 tests were conducted as shown in Figure P2.8, For ease of calculation, the total numbers of test results in each grid are given in the figure, Calculate the following:2.9 Problems 31 Relative density, Oy 0.0 L ’ 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 FigureP28 Relative Density SPT of N-value Versus N-value (a) PO4ED,) (b) PD, > 0.81N> 15) (©) PO4 04 and N's 15) (©) PD, $0.8 and N > 25) 2.9 Ata particular site, the probabilities of occurrence of high wind and moderate earthquake in ‘single minute are assumed to be 10-5 and 10-8, respectively. The occurrence of high wind and moderate earthquake can be asstimed to be statistically independent. (a) According to the building code, the combined effect of these two loads need not be considered. Is this reasonable? (b) If the events in succeeding minutes are statistically independent, what is the probabil- ity that there will be no moderate earthquake in a day? In a year? During the 50-year life of the structure? Hint: Use de Morgan’s rule. 2.10 The power supply to a hospital operating room may come from electricity (E) or a diesel generator (D). The diesel generator starts operating only if there is no electricity. The prob- ability that there will be no electricity at any given time is 0.001. Ifthe diesel generator has to supply the power, the probability that it will fail is 0.01. (a) What is the probability that there will be no power in the operating room? (b) If there is power in the operating room, what is the probability that both sources of power are in good operating condition? 2.11 A car accident can occur during the winter season due to icy road conditions (J) or lack of visibility (V). The corresponding probabilities of an accident are estimated to be 0.1 and 0.05, respectively. Also, if road conditions are iey, the probability that visibility will also bbe poor is 0.3, (a) What is the probability of an accident during the winter? (b) If and V are statistically independent, what is the probability of an accident during the winter? 2.12 A reinforced concrete beam can fail due to either excessive bending movement or exces- sive shear force. The first kind of failure is generally preceded by large deflection (ductile32 Chapter 2 Mathematics of Probability behavior), whereas the second kind generally occurs suddenly without warning (brittle behavior). Past observations indicate that 5% of the beams that fail are due to shear, whereas 95% are due to bending. Laboratory results indicate that 80% of the beams that fail in shear produce small diagonal cracks just before failure, whereas only 10% of the beams that fail in bending show similar cracks. Suppose that replacement of the beam is justified when shear failure is more likely than bending failure. If some diagonal cracks are observed during an inspection, should the beam be replaced” 2.13 A concentrated load on a cantilever beam may be placed in either location A or B, with. probabilities P(4) = 0.3 and P(B) = 0.7. Ifthe load is placed at A, the probability of bend- ing failure of the beam is 0.01, and the probability of shear failure is 0.001. If the load is placed at B, the probability of bending failure of the beam is 0.02, and the probability of shear failure remains the same. If the beam has shear failure, then the probability of bend- ing failure is 0.9, What is the overall probability of failure of the beam? 2.14 A bolted joint may fail by shearing of the bolt (E,), bearing between the bolts and plates at the holes (£2), or tearing at the edges of the plates (£3). For the joint, the three failure prob- abilities are estimated to be 0.002, 0.001, and 0.001, respectively. It is unlikely that the bolts will fal in shear if there is a failure due to bearing, tearing, or both. It is certain that the joint will have bearing failure if there is tearing failure. Calculate the probability of failure of the joint. 2.18 Two major cities are connected by a three-lane highway in each direction. Let Ey, E, and E, denote the right-hand, center, and left-hand lane, respectively. Upon inspection, the maintenance engineer concludes that the probability that each of these three lanes will require major repair work in the next year are 0.10, 0.05, and 0.01, respectively. From past experience, the following information is available: P(E,1E)) =0.8, P(E;| E:)=0.9, P(E31E,)=0.5, and P(Ey| Ey £3) =09 (a) What is the probability thatthe highway in each direction will need major repairs next year? (b) If the need for repair in each direction is statistically independent, what is the probabil- ity that the highway will need major repair next year? 2.16 Piles are needed to support columns in a high-rise building at a particular site. The proba- bility of failure of a pile due to excessive axial load is estimated to be 10-4. Suppose that four such piles are requited under each column, and there are 20 identical columns in the building. Assume that the failure of piles are statistically independent of each other. (a) What is the probability that none of the piles under a column foundation will fail? (b) What is the probability that none of the columns in the building will suffer damage due to pile failure? 2.17 The annual probability of a damaging fire and a strong earthquake in a subdivision are esti- ‘mated to be 0.03 and 0.001, respectively. If there isa strong earthquake, the probability that it will cause fire is 0.3. The occurrences of natural fires and earthquakes are statistically independent. (a) What is the probability that the sudivision will have a fire due to a strong earthquake ima year? (b) What is the probability that the subdivision will have a fire in a year? (©) What is the probability that the subdivision will have no fire in the next 10 years? 2.18 The survival of a building during an earthquake depends on the intensity of the earthquake. For simplicity, earthquake intensity is described as low (L), medium (M), or high (#). The2.9 Problems 33 relative frequency of occurrence of earthquakes of these intensities is 0.5, 0.05, and 0,001 per year. The earthquakes are statistically independent. The likelihoods of failure of the building associated with earthquakes of intensities, L, M, and 11, are 0.01, 0.2, and 0.70, respectively (a) What is the probability that an earthquake is of low intensity? Moderate intensity? High intensity’ {(b) What is the probability of failure of the building during an earthquake? (© What is the probability that the building will survive 2 earthquakes? What about 100 ‘earthquakes? 2.19 Good performance (obtaining a grade of A+) in this probability class depends on your atten- dance (A) and completion of assignments (C). The probabilities that you will receive a grade of At ate 100%, 70%, 50%, and 0%, if you regularly attend and complete the assignments, if you regularly attend but do not complete the assignments, if you do not regularly attend but complete the assignments regularly, and if you neither attend nor complete assignments, respectively. Further assume that if you attend the class regularly, there is a 90% probabil ity that you will complete the assignments. The probability that you will attend the class reg- ularly is 0.95, and the probability that you will complete the assignments is 0.90. (@ What is the probability that you will receive an A+ in this class? (b) If you received an A*, what is the probability that you regularly attended the class and completed the assignments? 2.20 Water supply to a city on a given day comes from one of three reservoirs, with a relative. likelihood of 1:1:3 for Reservoirs A, B, and C, respectively. The supplied water may con- tain excessive bacteria 5%, 10%, and 2% of the time, respectively, if it came from Reservoir A, B, or C. (2) What is the probability that the water supplied to the city will contain excessive bacte- ria on a given day?” (b) If the water is found to contain no excessive bacteria on a given day, what is the prob- ability that it came from Reservoir A? 2.21 From past records, it is observed that in a typical year (365 days), air pollution in acity was caused by excessive dust alone on 30 days, by car exhaust alone on 60 days, and on 10 days the pollution was caused by both excessive dust and car exhaust. Assume that they are the only two sources of air pollution and are statistically independent. The probabilities of excessive dust and car exhaust are estimated to be 0.01 and 0.05 per day, respectively. (a) What is the probability that the city will have an air pollution problem on a given day’? (b) What isthe probability thatthe city will have an air pollution problem on a given day due to dust? Due to car exhaust? Due to both dust and car exhaust? (©) Suppose that on a particular day the air is polluted. What is the probability that it is caused by car exhaust? 2.22 The probability of a tomado occurring in a subdivision in Tomado Alley in the United States has been estimated to be 0.2 for one occurrence, 0.03 For two occurrences, and 0.001 for three occurrences during the next 50 years. Assume that the chance of four or more occurrences is negligible during the next 50 years. If a tornado hits a structure, the proba- bility that it will suffer damage is 70%. Assume that the damage from multiple tomadoes is statistically independent. What is the probability that a structure will not suffer any dam- age from tomadoes in the next 50 years? 2.23 A high-rise building is designed against wind load and earthquakes. The designer's calcula- tion shows that during its service life (the next 50 years), the probability that the building34° Chapter 2. Mathematics of Probability will be damaged only by earthquakes is 0.1, only by windstorms is 0.05, and by both earth ‘quakes and windstorms is 0.2. Past records show that in a given period of 50 years, the prob- abilities of occurrence of earthquakes and windstorms are 0.2 and 0.5, respectively, Earthquakes and windstorms are statistically independent (a) Find the probability that the building will be damaged during its se rences of earthquakes and windstorms are statistically independent. (b) If at the end of 50 years damage is found in the building, what is the probability that earthquakes have occurred” 2.24 The probability of occurrence of tomadoes in a county is estimated to be 0.05 per year Considering the path and width of tornadoes, itis estimated that the chance of a building being hit by a tomado when it strikes the county is 0.01. (a), What is the probability that a building will be struck by tornadoes in the next 10 years? (b) Suppose the intensity of tornadoes is classified as strong and weak depending on the maximum wind speed, The likelihoods of strong and weak tornadoes are 1:4. Further assume that if a building is hit by a weak tornado, the probability of damage to the cladding is 0.4; however, the probability of damage to structural members is only 0.04. These probabilities will be doubled if the building is struck by a strong tomado, Also, if the structural members are damaged, the probability of damage to the cladding increases to 0.8, regardless of whether the tornado is strong or weak. Determine the probability of damage to the building when hit by a tornado. 2.25 A city is served by three overnight mail carriers. The market shares for the three carriers, A,B, and C, are 50%, 30%, and 20%, respectively. The past record indicates that they fail to deliver the mail on time 1%, 2%, and 3% of the time, respectively. (a) What is the probability that an overnight letter will arrive late in that city? life (occur- (b) If the overnight letter arrived late, what is the probability that it was sent via A? Via B? Via c? 2.26 Delay (D) in a construction project can be caused by material shortage (M), labor shortage (L), and bad weather (W); the corresponding probabilities are 40%, 40%, and 20%, respec- tively. Assume M, L, and W are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive, and the likelihood of their occurrence is 2:2:1, respectively. (a) What is the probabil (b) Ifthe project was delayed, what isthe probability thatthe delay was caused by bad weather? 2.27 ‘The safety of a dam depends on the load conditions produced by water levels upstream and downstream, These load conditions can be denoted as dewatering (D), overtopping (O), and {lat-top pool condition (F). In a typical year consisting of 365 days, these load conditions can occur on 3, 62, and 300 days, respectively. The probability of failure of the dam in each load condition is 0.001, 0.0001, and 0.000001, respectively. Calculate the probability of failure of the dam in a year. What is the probability of failure in 10 years? In 50 years? 2.28 For mathematical modeling, suppose the major causes of an accident (A) on a segment of highway can be grouped into speeding (S), tiredness (7), carelessness (C), weather condi- tions (W), and drunkenness (D). The likelihoods of these causes are estimated to be 4:3:1:1:1, respectively. The probabilities of an accident due to S, T, C, W, and D are 0.01, 0.05, 0.01, 0.005, and 0.8, respectively. (a) Calculate the probability of an accident in the segment of the highway. (b) If there was an accident, what is the probability that it was caused by the driver? of delay of the construction project? irunkenness of