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The Silent Crash - and What Happens Next: The Elliott Wave Theorist

The document discusses the Elliott Wave Theory and its predictions for an impending stock market crash and downturn in the real estate market based on historical financial patterns and indicators. It includes 38 figures showing charts and data related to stock prices, market capitalization, housing prices, interest rates and other economic indicators.

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The Silent Crash - and What Happens Next: The Elliott Wave Theorist

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The Silent Crash

and What Happens Next

The Elliott Wave Theorist

December 15, 2006 issue

Robert R. Prechter, Jr., CMT

www.elliottwave.com

Figure 1

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Figure 2

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Figure 3

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Figure 4

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Figure 5

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Figure 6

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Figure 7

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Figure 8

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Figure 9

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Figure 10

Real Estate Is Crashing Too:

www.elliottwave.com

Figure 11

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Figure 12

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Figure 13

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Figure 14

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Figure 15

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Figure 16

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Figure 17

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Figure 18

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Figure 19

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Figure 20

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Figure 21

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Figure 22

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Figure 23

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Figure 24

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Figure 25

Mar. 2000
183.0%

STOCK MARKET CAPITALIZATION

AS A PERCENTAGE OF NOMINAL GDP
Last (June 2006) 120.53%
Stock Market Capitalization = $15.903 Trillion
Nominal GDP = $13.914 Trillion

Aug. 1929
81.4%

Nov. 1968 Dec. 1972

77.8%
78.1%
average = 55.79

Sep. 1974 Jul. 1982

33.5%
33.7%
Apr. 1942
16.0%

www.elliottwave.com

Figure 26

Stock Mutual Funds Cash/Assets Ratio vs. Aggregate Stock Prices

Monthly Data December 1965 - October 2005 (Log Scale)

S&P 500

High Cash

Low Cash
4.5%
3.9%

www.elliottwave.com

4.0%

3.8%

Figure 27

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Figure 28

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Figure 29

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Figure 30

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Figure 31

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Figure 32

BEST COUNT
FOR DJIA
ha
nn
el

DJIA monthly

pa
r

al
lel
c

log scale

4
1
2

www.elliottwave.com

Figure 33

www.elliottwave.com

Figure 34

BOND BUYER 20-BOND AVERAGE

arithmetic scale

investment mania top?

inflation
low
(1981)

www.elliottwave.com

Figure 35

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Figure 36

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Figure 37

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Figure 38

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The Silent Crash - and What Happens Next: The Elliott Wave Theorist

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The Silent Crash - and What Happens Next: The Elliott Wave Theorist

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The Silent Crash

and What Happens Next

The Elliott Wave Theorist

Robert R. Prechter, Jr., CMT

Real Estate Is Crashing Too:

STOCK MARKET CAPITALIZATION

Nov. 1968 Dec. 1972

Sep. 1974 Jul. 1982

Stock Mutual Funds Cash/Assets Ratio vs. Aggregate Stock Prices

BOND BUYER 20-BOND AVERAGE

investment mania top?

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