Germantown

Demographic
Germantown

Trends
Montgomery County, MD

Research & Technology Center

Montgomery County Planning Department, M-NCPPC
 Planning Areas
Montgomery County, MD.

,.-
270

g%
97

Germantown

/(29

Major Roads
Germantown PA ,.-
495

Planning Areas

Research & Technology Center

Montgomery County Dept. of Park & Planning, M-NCPPC
 Montgomery County’s Population Size
Ranks in Top 2% of All Counties in 2005
Rank County Population % Change*
1 Los Angeles County, CA 9,935,475 4.4%
2 Cook County, IL 5,303,683 -1.4%
3 Harris County, TX 3,693,050 8.6%
>
36 Contra Costa County, CA 1,017,787 7.3%
37 Fairfax County, VA 1,006,529 3.8%
38 St. Louis County, MO 1,004,666 -1.1%
>
43 Pinellas County, FL 928,032 0.7%
44 Montgomery County, MD 927,583 6.1%
45 Pima County, AZ 924,786 9.6%
>
56 New Haven County, CT 846,766 2.8%
57 Prince George's County, MD 846,123 5.7%
58 Macomb County, MI 829,453 5.2%
>
65 Baltimore County, MD 786,113 4.2%

* Percent change from April 2000 to July 2005

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, July 2005 County Population Estimates
Research & Technology Center
Montgomery County Dept. of Park & Planning, M-NCPPC
 Where the Greater Washington Area
Population Lives in 2005
Fairfax* 21%

Calvert 2%
Montgomery 19% Stafford 2%
Alexandria 3%
Charles 3%
Arlington 4%

Frederick 4%

Prince George’s 17% Loudoun 5%

Prince William* 8%

District of Columbia 11% * Includes independent cities

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, July 2005 County Population Estimates

Research & Technology Center
Montgomery County Dept. of Park & Planning, M-NCPPC
Five Most Populous Planning Areas in 2005
Total Household Population
140,000 130,500
120,000
100,000 92,600
79,580 78,065
80,000
62,865
60,000
40,000
20,000
14.0% 9.9% 8.5% 8.4% 6.8%
0
Gaithersburg Bethesda/ Germantown Kensington/ Aspen Hill
& Vicinity Chevy Chase Wheaton
2005 Montgomery County Household Population: 931,000
Research & Technology Center
Montgomery County Department of Planning, M-NCPPC
 Annual Population Gains in this Decade
Approach High Numbers Last Seen in 1980s
Total County Population

873,341 942,000

757,027
Gained 68,659
579,053 Up 7.9%

Gained 116,314
Up 15.4%

Gained 177,974
Up 30.7%

18,000/year 12,000/year 13,000/year Annual growth Rate

1980 1990 2000 2005

Source: U.S. Census Bureau Decennial Census; COG Round 7.0 Forecast
Research & Technology Center
Montgomery County Dept. of Park & Planning, M-NCPPC
 High Percentage Growth in 1980s,
Annual Growth Higher Now than in the 90s
Gained 21,695
79,580
Up 37%

Gained 25,840
57,885
Up 81%

Gained 21,645
32,046
Up 208%

10,400
3,090/year 2,585/year 2,712 year Annual growth rate

1980 1987 1997 2005

Germantown Household Population
Research & Technology Center
Montgomery County Department of Planning, M-NCPPC
 By 2015, Jobs Are Expected to
Exceed Housing in Germantown
100,000
90,000 population
80,000
70,000
60,000
50,000 jobs
40,000
30,000
households
20,000
10,000
0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Germantown Round 7.0 Cooperative Forecast

Research & Technology Center

Montgomery County Department of Planning, M-NCPPC
 County’s Population Is Growing
and Becoming More Diverse
Annual Growth Rate Minority Share of
24,000 Population Growth
140%
121%
18,000 17,585 120% 112%
100%
13,080
12,000 11,630 80%
60% 52%
6,000 5,680 40%
20%
0 0%
1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 1980-1990 1990-2000 2000-2005
Minority population gained 59,923 compared to 53,418 increase
in total population between 2000 and 2005.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau Adjusted Race Population Estimates (8/06)
Research & Technology Center
Montgomery County Dept. of Park & Planning, M-NCPPC
 Germantown’s Growing
Minority Population Since 1987
45%
NonHisp White 52%
86%
20%
NH Black or African Am. 17%
6%
18%
NH Asian & Pacific Isl. 14%
4% 2005
2% 1997
NH Other Race 2% 1987
0%
15%
Hispanic 15%
4%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Percent of population
Research & Technology Center
Montgomery County Department of Planning, M-NCPPC
 Greater Diversity Found in Germantown
Compared to the County in 2005
56%
NonHisp White
45%
16%
NH Black or African Am.
20%
13%
NH Asian & Pacific Isl.
18%
County
2%
NH Other Race Germantown
2%
14%
Hispanic
15%

0% 20% 40% 60%

Percent of population

Research & Technology Center

Montgomery County Department of Planning, M-NCPPC
 County’s Foreign Born Percentage
Surpasses the State, Region, and Nation
Foreign born percent of population
35% 1980
29% 1990
30% 27% 2000
25% 2005
21%
19%
20%
16%
15% 12% 12% 12% 12%
11%
10% 9%
10% 7% 8%
5% 6%
5%

0%
Montgomery Maryland Washington United States
County Region
Source: U.S. Census, 2005 American Community Survey
Research & Technology Center
Montgomery County Dept. of Park & Planning, M-NCPPC
 3 Out of 10 Residents
Are Foreign Born in Germantown
Foreign Born % of Population
40%
34%
35% 32% 33%
30%
30% 27%
25%
20%
15%
9% 9%
10%
5%
0%
Takoma Fairland Rockville German- County Damascus Poolesville
Park town

Research & Technology Center

Planning Areas
Montgomery County Department of Planning, M-NCPPC
 Family Types in Germantown
Similar to the County
Percent of Households by Type
70%
61% 62% Germantown
60%
County
50%
40%
30%
22% 24%
20%
12% 10%
10%
2% 2%
0%
Married- Single Parent Living Alone Other
Couple Nonfamily
Research & Technology Center
Montgomery County Department of Planning, M-NCPPC
 Younger Population
Characterizes Germantown
Percent of Population
35% 33% 32%
29%
30% 26% 25%
25% 23%
20%
20% 18%

15% 11%
10% 6% 6%
4%
5%
0%
Upper Rock Darnestown German- County Aspen Hill Bethesda/
Creek town CC

Age < 18 Age 65+

Planning Areas
Research & Technology Center
Montgomery County Department of Planning, M-NCPPC
 In 2000, Germantown’s Age Profile is
Younger than the County’s
Percent of Household Population
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
0 to 4 5 to 19 20 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 64 65+

Germantown County
Source: U. S. Census Bureau
Research & Technology Center
Montgomery County Department of Planning, M-NCPPC
 By 2020, Germantown’s Age Profile is
Becoming Similar to the County’s
Percent of Household Population
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
0 to 4 5 to 19 20 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 64 65+

Germantown County
Source: Round 7.0 Cooperative Forecast
Research & Technology Center
Montgomery County Department of Planning, M-NCPPC
 Well Educated, But Fewer Advanced
Degrees Found in Germantown
Percent of Adults Age 25 and Older

40%
Germantown County
35%

30% 30% 30% 29%

26%
22%
20%

10% 8% 9%
6% 6%

0%
Less than High School Associate/ Bachelor's Master's or
High School Diploma Trade School Degree Higher

Research & Technology Center

Montgomery County Department of Planning, M-NCPPC
 Most Employed Germantown Residents
Live and Work in the County
Percent of Employed Residents Working in the County
80% 75% 74% 73%
70%
60%
60%
50% 42% 40%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Clarksburg Poolesville German- County Takoma Silver
town Park Spring

Planning Areas
Research & Technology Center
Montgomery County Department of Planning, M-NCPPC
 Germantown Workers are More Likely to
Drive Alone & Less Likely to Take Transit
Percent of Employed Residents
100%

80% 75% 72%

Germantown County
60%

40%

20% 12% 16%

8% 5%
1% 3% 3% 4%
0%
Drive Alone Carpool Public Transit Other Work at Home

Commuting Mode

Research & Technology Center

Montgomery County Department of Planning, M-NCPPC
 Potomac & Takoma Park Exhibit the
Extremes in Household Income
2004 Median Household Income
180,000
$156,245
160,000 $142,420
140,000
120,000
100,000 $83,880
$76,655
80,000
$59,925
60,000 $48,675
40,000
20,000
0
Potomac/ Travilah County Germantown Aspen Hill Takoma
Cabin John Park
Planning Areas
Research & Technology Center
Montgomery County Department of Planning, M-NCPPC
 Germantown Has Highest Percent
of Townhouse Housing
0%
Poolesville 11%
89%

31%
% of Households
County 18% Multi-Family
51%

29% Townhouse
Germantown 45%
26%

38%
Single-Family
Fairland 33% Detached
29%

66%
Silver Spring 3%
31%

Research & Technology Center

Planning Areas
Montgomery County Department of Planning, M-NCPPC
 Shifting Population Shares Across
Single Family Housing Types
Number & Percent of Population by Structure Type
40,000
46%
35,000
30,000 Single Family
25,000 Detached
33%
Townhouse
20,000
58% 21%
15,000 Garden Apt
10,000
22%
5,000 20%
0
1987 1994 1997 2005

Research & Technology Center

Montgomery County Department of Planning, M-NCPPC
 Higher Average Household Size Reflects
Large Families & Fewer Single 65+
3.00 Average Household Size

2.80

2.60

2.40
County
Germantown
2.20

2.00
1987 1994 1997 2005

Research & Technology Center

Montgomery County Department of Planning, M-NCPPC
 Less than Half of Germantown’s Households
Lived in the Same House in 2000

% of HH at Same Address in 2000

80% 75%
71%
70%
60% 58%

50% 47% 46%

40%
29%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Poolesville Potomac County Silver German- Clarksburg
Spring town
Planning Areas
Research & Technology Center
Montgomery County Department of Planning, M-NCPPC
 Majority are Homeowners
in Germantown
% of Households
96% 97%
100%
80%
80% 74%

61%
60% 55%
45%
39%
40%
26%
20%
20%
4% 3%
0%
Silver Takoma County German- Olney Darnestown
Spring Park town

Owner Renter

Planning Areas
Research & Technology Center
Montgomery County Department of Planning, M-NCPPC
Germantown’s Average Homeowner Cost
Below the County’s Average
Average Monthly Homeowner Costs
3,000
$2,599 $2,509
2,500

2,000
$1,687
$1,507
1,500 $1,342 $1,276

1,000

500

0
Travilah Potomac County Germantown Kemp Mill Aspen Hill
Planning Areas
Research & Technology Center
Montgomery County Department of Planning, M-NCPPC
 Bethesda/Chevy Chase & Takoma Park
Show the Extremes in Rental Costs
Average Monthly Renter Costs
1,800
$1,606 $1,553
1,600
1,400
$1,167
1,200 $1,034
1,000 $914
$800
800
600
400
200
0
Bethesda- Clarksburg County Germantown Kemp Mill Takoma
Chevy Chase Park
Selected Planning Areas with > 5% rental housing
Research & Technology Center
Montgomery County Department of Planning, M-NCPPC
 Percent of Households Where Monthly
Housing Costs Exceed 30% HH Income
2004 Average Housing Cost
Own: $1,507
Percent of Households
Rent: $1,034
45% 41%
39%
40%
35%
30%
25%
19%
20% 17%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Owner Occupied Renter Occupied

Germantown County
Research & Technology Center
Montgomery County Department of Planning, M-NCPPC
 Germantown
Development
Germantown

Trends
Montgomery County, MD

Research & Technology Center

Montgomery County Planning Department, M-NCPPC
 Leased Office Space
i Germantown has about 2.7 million square feet of
rentable office space in 46 buildings.
i Currently Germantown’s office vacancy rate is
17% compared to a 8% vacancy rate countywide.
i Germantown’s office vacancy rate peaked at
almost 28% in late 2003.
i Since the first quarter of 2005, Germantown’s
office vacancy rate has been between 12% and
19%.

Source: CoStar Group

Research & Technology Center
Montgomery County Department of Planning, M-NCPPC
 Office Space Under Construction
i 58,000 square feet at 19785 Crystal Rock Dr
– Delivering August 2007
– 100% leased, but 15,500 sq. ft. available for
sale
i 218,000 square feet on Century Blvd.
– Delivering June 2008
– 100% leased

Source: CoStar Group

Research & Technology Center
Montgomery County Department of Planning, M-NCPPC
 Flex Space
i Germantown has about 591,000 square feet of flex
space, about 14% of the County’s inventory.
i The vacancy rate in Germantown is 15% compared
to 13% countywide.
i All of Germantown’s vacant space is in 1 building
that was delivered in 2006.
i A 15,000 sq. ft. building is under construction to
be delivered in March 2007.

Source: CoStar Group

Research & Technology Center
Montgomery County Department of Planning, M-NCPPC
 Germantown is in Housing 2nd

Production 2000-2005
Housing Units Built 2000-2005
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
ty n ity sd
a rg an
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sd
a
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e nt rg th ks
b ir th av
v ill m
a u Be r F a
Be T r
k r b la
oc e e rs C th
R G th or
ai N
G
Source: MD Dept. of Assessments and Taxation
Research & Technology Center
Montgomery County Department of Planning, M-NCPPC
 Germantown’s Housing Production Has
Slowed in the Past 3 Years
Housing Units Built
1,400
30% 22%
1,200
23% Percent of the County’s units
1,000
built in Germantown
800
600
8% 12%
400
200 4%

0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Research & Technology Center

Montgomery County Department of Planning, M-NCPPC
 Germantown is in Commercial 2nd

Construction 2000-2005
Gross Floor Area in Sq. Ft.
3,000,000
2,500,000
2,000,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0

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Source: MD Dept. of Assessments and Taxation

Research & Technology Center
Montgomery County Department of Planning, M-NCPPC
 Germantown’s Pipeline of
Approved Development
i There are 1,360 units in Germantown’s
housing pipeline, 56% are multi-family
units.
i There are 4.1 million sq. ft. of non-
residential gross floor area in Germantown’s
commercial pipeline.

Research & Technology Center

Montgomery County Department of Planning, M-NCPPC
 Existing (2005) + 2030 Forecast
57% of Employment Capacity
93% of Housing Capacity
Existing 2030 Forecast Master Plan Capacity
90,000
80,000 78,000
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000 36,783
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
Employment Housing

COG Round 7.0 Forecast

Research & Technology Center
Montgomery County Department of Planning, M-NCPPC