Commodities Daily Report

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Thursday| July 04, 2013

Agricultural Commodities

Content
News & Market Highlights Chana Oilseeds Edible Oils Spices Sugar Cotton Guar Complex

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar Chief Manager- Agri Commodities [email protected] (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6130 Shruti Ghanekar Research Associate [email protected] (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6133 Anuj Choudhary Research Analyst [email protected] (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6132

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Disclaimer: The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. The company does not warrant its accuracy, completeness and correctness. The document is not, and should not be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published, in whole or in part, by any recipient hereof for any purpose without prior permission from Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd. Your feedback is appreciated on [email protected]

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Thursday| July 04, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
News in brief
Reduction of staggered delivery period
As per a circular dated 3 July 2013 and as per the approval of the Forward Markets Commission, the tender period under the Staggered Delivery System for agricultural commodities will be reduced to 10 days from the existing 15 days. Accordingly, the tender start day in agricultural commodities under staggered delivery mechanism is being revised to 11th of every month from existing 5th of every month. The modification will be applicable in all the contracts in agricultural commodities listed in Annexure expiring in the month of August 2013 and thereafter. (Source:
NCDEX)
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Market Highlights (% change)

Last Prev. day

as on July 3, 2013
WoW MoM YoY

Sensex Nifty INR/$ Nymex Crude Oil - $/bbl Comex Gold - $/oz

19178 5771 60.23 101.24 1252.1

-1.47 -1.48 1.13 1.65 0.68

3.37 3.26 -0.81 6.01 1.83

-2.21 -2.84 6.27 8.34 -11.31

10.05 9.13 11.08 15.49 -22.77

.Source: Reuters

Heavy crop damage in hilly states lifts onion, potato prices

Onion and potato prices shot up sharply across the country. While the damage of potato crop in the hilly areas, especially in Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh, lifted traders sentiments, stockists held onion in anticipation of further price rise until the new season crop hits the market in October. Data compiled by the Nashik-based National Horticulture Research & Development Foundation (NHRDF) showed that onion prices rose by up to 41 per cent in the last two weeks on reduced supply from stockists. Guwahati was the worst hit in price rise with 41 per cent, followed by Mumbai at 31.48 per cent. (Source: Business Standard)

India to ask Mauritius to expedite basmati rice inspection system

To continue smooth exports of Basmati rice to Mauritius, India is for an early decision on putting in place the proposed export inspection and certification system for the same. Last April, Mauritius had conveyed to the Government that the Basmati rice imported from India and Pakistan was being adulterated by local traders. To regulate the import and sale of Basmati rice, Mauritian authorities sought a certificate of authenticity (CoA) to be issued by the Indian authorities for exports. Quick to respond, India nominated the Export Inspection Council as the nodal agency which will issue a certificate of authenticity (CoA) for all Basmati rice exports from India to Mauritius. India has already shared a draft of the proposed agreement with Mauritius for recognition of Export Inspection and Certification System for export of Basmati rice. (Source:
Business Line)

China halts wheat stockpiling in top producing area to cool prices

China's Sinograin, the state grain stockpiler, has halted stockpiling domestic wheat in the country's top wheat growing province of Henan to try to cool rising domestic prices, the agency said. The suspension comes after its purchases from domestic markets in past weeks have driven up prices, China Grain Reserves Corporation (Sinograin) said. Rising domestic prices after a rain-damaged harvest have spurred imports by the company and commercial firms. Sinograin has purchased 360,000 tonnes of U.S. wheat, the largest volume in three months. (Source: Reuters)

Pulses trade against duty on imports

The Indian Pulses and Grains Association (IPGA) on Wednesday said it was not in favour of any import duty on pulses. At present, importers can bring in pulses duty free till March 31 next year. However, the Commission for Agriculture Costs and Prices (CACP) in its recent recommendations has suggested that the Government impose a 10 per cent duty on imports to boost domestic production. Pravin Dongre, President, IPGA, clarified that his association was not in favour of any import duty but wanted the Government to consider opening up exports. We believe in free trade and are against any kind of impediments he said. Further, opening up exports could help stabilise prices, which are at present ruling below the minimum support price levels in some markets. (Source: Business Line)

Wheat Advances Most in Two Weeks on Asia, Egypt Demand

Wheat futures rose the most in two weeks on signs of increased demand after purchases by Egypt and China. Egypt, the worlds top wheat importer, bought 180,000 metric tons of Ukrainian and Romanian grain yesterday in the first tender since February. The country said in June it had enough supplies to last through mid-November. U.S. exporters reported sales of 360,000 tons of the soft red winter variety to China. (Source: Bloomberg)

UPA govt takes ordinance route to food security

The United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government, has chosen the ordinance route to launch its ambitious food security programme for almost two-thirds of the countrys population. The Cabinet, which had last month deferred a decision, on Wednesday unanimously approved an ordinance to implement the food security Bill, even as some experts raised objections. According to the ordinance, states will have to identify eligible households within six months. During this period, they will continue to get foodgrain allocation under the current Targeted Public Distribution System. The ordinance will cover up to 75 per cent of the rural and up to 50 per cent of the urban population to provide uniform entitlement of 5 kg foodgrain per month at highly subsidised prices of Rs 3, Rs 2 and Rs 1 a kg for rice, wheat and coarse grains, respectively. The Bill will also provide maternity benefit to identified beneficiaries, at Rs 1,000 per month (for six months). (Source: Business Standard)

Festival demand gets edible oils on a sizzle

Edible oils market turned hot late evening on strong demand ahead of festival amid firm futures market on Wednesday. Groundnut oil rose by Rs 20 and cotton refined oil by Rs 4 for 10 kg each tacking bullish trend in Saurashtra. Palmolein, soyabean, sunflower and rapeseed oil ruled unchanged. The volume was higher in palmolein and soyabean refined oil. Sources said that in local market about 350-400 tonnes of palmolein were resale traded at Rs 530-532 for July. Soyabean arrivals were about 1 lakh bags and its prices were Rs 3,500-3,600 ex-mandi and Rs 3,6753,750 for plant delivery. Mustard seeds arrivals were 1.20- 1.25 lakh bags and the prices were Rs 3,000-3,525. (Source: Business Line)

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Thursday| July 04, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Chana
Chana August futures which ht a fresh contract low of Rs 3051 per qtl, recovered sharply and settled higher by 0.55% on Wednesday. Prices recovered on talks that government might impose import duty on Pulses so as to deter imports and also restrict further fall in the prices. However, no decision was taken on the same in the meeting. As per a circular by NCDEX dated July 01, 2013, the Minimum Initial Margin has been reduced to 5% of the value of the contract or VaR based margin whichever is higher on all running contracts and yet to be launched contracts of Chana w.e.f Wednesday, July 3, 2013. The CCEA declared the MSP for kharif pulses. The MSP of the MSP of Tur has been raised by ` 450 to ` 4,300/qtl, moong by ` 100 to ` 4,500/qtl while Urad has been kept unchanged at ` 4,300/qtl. Sowing of kharif pulses have commenced and 10.52 lakh hectares have th been covered as on 28 June compared to normal 1.22 lakh ha. Spillover effect of kharif pulses is capping sharp upside in chana prices. Sowing of kharif pulses was adversely impacted last year and was down by 16 percent due to deficient rains.

Market Highlights
Unit Chana Spot - NCDEX Chana- NCDEX July'13 Fut
`/qtl `/qtl

as on July 3, 2013 % change Last 3044 3040 Prev day -1.81 0.53 WoW -3.37 -3.18 MoM -6.47 -4.64
Source: Reuters

YoY -31.82 -30.11

Spread Matrix
Closing 3043.75 3040 3111 3170 19-Jul-13 -3.75 0 -

as on July 3, 2013 20-Aug-13 67.25 71 0 20-Sep-13 126.25 130 59 0 as on July 2, 2013 Stocks as on 1st July 80653 53313 11264 145230 Qty in Process 473 1626 120 2219

Spot 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Bikaner Delhi Indore Total Stocks as on 2nd July 80985 54121 11264 146370 Qty in Process 522 2458 120 3100

Demand supply scenario

Higher returns earned in 2012, coupled with a hike in minimum support prices (MSP), have helped expand overall chana acreage in 2012-13 season. Chana sowing in 2012-13 was 5.65% higher at 95.17 lakh ha compared to previous year. According to third advance Estimates released on 3 May 2013, Total pulses output for 2012-13 season has been pegged at 18 mn tn, up 5.76% compared to previous year. Out of the total pulses output, kharif output is estimated at 4.03% lower at 5.95 mn tn while rabi pulses output is pegged 9.25% higher at 12.05 mn tn compared with the final estimates of 2011-12. Chana output is pegged marginally lower to 8.49 mn tn compared with its second advance estimates of 8.57 million tonnes. However, chana output is expected to breach its 2010-11 record output of 8.2 mn tn in 2012-13. Erratic weather in M.P. lowered the yield.
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Technical Chart - Chana

NCDEX August contract

Trade Scenario
According to IBIS, imports of chana in the month of April 2013 declined to 0.04 lakh metric tonnes compared to 0.11 lakh metric tonnes during the previous month. India imports Chana mainly from Australia and Canada and higher availability in these countries at comparatively cheaper rates is seen boosting imports of Chana to meet the domestic shortfall. In Australia, total chickpea production in 201213 is estimated to have increased to a record 713000 tones as compared with 485000.

Source: Telequote

Outlook
Chana prices may recover further on account lower level demand. Expectations government may take some measure to restrict further fall in the prices may also support an upside in the prices.

Technical Levels
Contract Chana Aug Futures Unit `/qtl Support

valid for July 04, 2013 Resistance 3135-3165

3030-3065

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Thursday| July 04, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Soybean
Soybean futures declined in the early part of the trade as higher sowing and smooth monsoon progress continue to exert downside pressure on the soybean futures. However, sharp depreciation in the domestic currency and firm international markets led prices to recover towards the end. Soybean near crop October futures contract settled 0.79% higher while the near month contract settled 0.19% lower. As per a circular by NCDEX dated July 01, 2013, the Minimum Initial Margin has been reduced to 5% of the value of the contract or VaR based margin whichever is higher on all running contracts of Rapeseed Mustard Seed, Soybean w.e.f Wednesday, July 3, 2013.. The CCEA has increased the MSP of soybean (black) by `300 to `2,500/qtl and soybean (yellow) by `320 to `2,560/qtl. The regulator has withdrawn 10% special cash margin on the long side in July th contract w.e.f. 27 June, 2013. Oilseeds sowing is completed under 60.69 lk ha against 11.82 lk ha last year. Soybean in MP, and Maharashtra was planted on 29.74 and 8.26 lk ha, sharply higher against 2.75 and 2.58 lk ha last year. According to the 3rd advance estimates, Soybean output is pegged at 14.14 mn tonnes. IMDs forecasts of normal monsoon have raised hopes of better output next season too. International Markets CBOT soybean near month futures closed higher by 0.67% on Wednesday due to tight supplies in the near term. However, the new crop far month contracts remained lower pressured by improved crop conditions for newly planted crops in the U.S. Farm Belt. Further USDA raised planting estimates to 77.728 mn acres against March forecast of 77.126 mn acres. As per USDA weekly crop progress report, 96 pct soybean planting is completed vs 92 pct a wk ago and 98 pct 5 yr average.

Market Highlights

as on July 3, 2013 % Change Prev day WoW -0.03 0.84 -0.19 0.67 -0.05 1.29 -1.36 3.21 0.63 -0.14

Unit Soybean Spot- NCDEX Soybean- NCDEX July '13 Fut Soybean- CBOT July'13 Fut RM Seed Spot- NCDEX RM Seed- NCDEX July '13 Fut
`/qtl `/qtl

Last 3719 3623 1584 3479 3444

MoM -2.75 -4.50 3.33 0.63 -1.1

YoY -6.01 -8.94 0.72 -12.24 -12.2

USc/Bsh
`/qtl `/qtl

Source: Reuters

Soybean Spread Matrix

Closing 3719 Spot 19-Jul-13 18-Oct-13 20-Nov-13 3622.5 3109.5 3114.5 0 -513 0 19-Jul-13 -96.5 18-Oct-13 -609.5

as on July 3, 2013 20-Nov-13 -604.5 -508 5 0 as on July 3, 2013 20-Aug-13 12.35 47 0 20-Sep-13 56.35 91 44 0 as on July 2, 2013 Qty in Process 485 0 0 485 as on July 2, 2013 Qty in Process 0 294 70 0 906 40 0 1310 NCDEX October contract

Mustard Seed Spread Matrix

Spot 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 Closing 3478.65 3444 3491 3535 19-Jul-13 -34.65 0 -

Soybean stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Akola Nagpur Sagar Total Stocks as on 2nd July 20165 1285 401 21851 Stocks as on 2nd July 3040 4155 20509 634 61889 5153 1730 97110 Qty in Process 363 0 0 363 Qty in Process 0 294 70 0 1037 40 111 1552 Stocks as on 1sy July 20074 1285 401 21760 Stocks as on 1st July 3040 4155 20489 634 61518 5153 1730 96719

Outlook
Tight supplies in the near term in both the domestic as well as international markets may keep soybean prices firm in the domestic markets. However, higher sowing and improved crop prospects may keep the far month contracts under downside pressure.

RM Seed stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Alwar Bharatpur Bikaner Hapur Jaipur Kota Sriganganagar Total

Rape/mustard Seed
Mustard seed August futures declined sharply and hit a fresh contract low of Rs 3517 per qtl as higher supplies in the domestic markets and increase in sowing area under kharif oilseeds exerted downside pressure on the prices. However, prices recovered and settled 1.29% higher on expectations of fresh demand to emerge at lower levels. Agriculture ministry in its third advance estimates, pegged mustard output at 7.36 mn tn, up by 11.5%.

Technical Chart Soybean

Outlook
Declining arrivals at lower prices levels and good demand may keep prices firm in the near term. However, overall trend in mustard seed remain bearish amidst higher production this season.

Technical Levels
Contract Soybean NCDEX Oct Futures RM Seed NCDEX Aug Futures Unit `/qtl `/qtl

valid for July 04, 2013 Support 3000-3055 3400-3440 Resistance 3160-3215 3525-3560

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Thursday| July 04, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Refined Soy Oil
After opening marginally lower, refine soy oil traded gained sharply tracking weak Indian rupee. Prices settled 1.34% in the futures while in the spot they were up by 0.62% on Wednesday. As per a circular by NCDEX dated July 01, 2013, the Minimum Initial Margin has been reduced to 5% of the value of the contract or VaR based margin whichever is higher on all running contracts of Refined Soy oil w.e.f Wednesday, July 3, 2013. Soy Oil prices had declined sharply in the last one week amidst good sowing prospects of oilseeds in the domestic markets coupled with appreciation in the Indian rupee in the last two trading session. India meet 50-55 percent of its edible consumption through imports and thus rupee factor is a major determinant of edible oil prices. As per the data released by the Solvent Extractors' Association of India, imports of vegetable oils, including non-edible oils, rose 40.2% to 917,964 tn in May, after dropping for 3 months, mainly due to surge in palm oil imports. Monthly soy oil imports rose 2.7% as local supplies are almost exhausted before the new planting season for soybean.

Market Highlights
% Change Unit `/10 kg `/10 kg USc/ Bushel MYR/Tonne `/10 kg Last 685.45 682.05 47.22 2359 503.80 Prev day 0.62 1.34 0.64 1.11 1.47

as on July 3, 2013

Ref Soy oil SpotNCDEX Ref Soy oil- NCDEX July '13 Fut Soybean Oil- CBOTJuly'13 Fut
CPO-Bursa Malaysia July '13 Fut CPO-MCX- July '13 Futures

WoW -1.34 -0.42 1.27 -0.46 -0.30

MoM -4.13 -3.77 -2.96 -0.04 4.07

YoY -8.83 -9.65 -10.82 -23.85 -10.89

Source: Reuters

Refined Soy Oil Spread Matrix

Spot 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 Closing 685.45 682.05 675.8 665.65 19-Jul-13 -3.4 0 20-Aug-13 -9.65 -6.25 0 -

as on July 3, 2013 20-Sep-13 -19.8 -16.4 -10.15 0 as on July 3, 2013

Outlook
Soy oil may trade on a negative note today due to weak bean prices. However, rupee movement would drive prices in the intraday.

CPO Spread Matrix

31-Jul-13 31-Aug-13 30-Sept-13 Closing 503.8 504.7 502.4 31-Jul-13 0 31-Aug-13 0.9 0 -

Crude Palm Oil

After witnessing a considerable fall in the last one week, MCX CPO August futures gained sharply and settled 1.47% higher on Wednesday tracing weakness in the Indian rupee. KLCE CPO futures also settled 1.1% higher yesterday. Indonesia has set the export tax for Palm oil at 10.5% for July, up from 9% in June. Exports of Malaysian palm oil products in June rose 7 percent to 1,350,311 tonnes from 1,262,281 tonnes shipped during May as buyers stocked up for Ramadan that falls in July. Communal feasting during Ramadan drives up consumption of vegetable oil. India's refined palm oil imports hit a record high in May by jumping 47.5 percent from April. The world's top buyer of vegetable oils imported 373,837 tonnes of refined palm oil in May. The jump in refined palm oil purchases will raise the clamour for increasing import duties to protect local oilseed growers and refiners against cheaper supplies from major exporters Indonesia and Malaysia. But the Indian government is yet to pay any heed as inflation has only just reached comfortable levels.

30-Sept-13 -1.4 -2.3 0 NCDEX August contract

Technical Chart Ref Soy Oil

Outlook
CPO prices may trade higher today as increase in export tax by Indonesia may support an upside in the prices. Also, expected depreciation in the Indian rupee may also support prices.

Technical Chart Crude Palm Oil

MCX July contract

Technical Outlook
Contract Soy Oil Aug NCDEX Futures CPO MCX July Futures Unit `/qtl `/qtl

valid for July 04, 2013 Support 660-668 496-500 Resistance 680-685 506-509

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Thursday| July 04, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Spices
Jeera
Jeera August Futures which traded on a negative note in the early trades on Wednesday, recovered from lower levels towards the later part of the day as fresh overseas demand have supported prices at lower levels and settled marginally higher by 0.1%. However, good supplies as well as rains in the jeera sowing areas kept spot prices under and settled 0.42% lower. Currently, about 70% of total arrivals have been traded in the mandis. Exports have been reported mainly to Singapore, Europe and Dubai. In the global markets, there is a supply crunch due to the ongoing geopolitical tensions in Syria and Turkey, which has raised supply concerns from these two major exporting countries. Export orders are diverted to India. Production is also expected to decline in Syria and Turkey. Jeera of Indian origin is being offered in the international market at $2,625 tn (FOB Mumbai).

Market Highlights
Unit `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl Last 13645 13270 5726 5784 Prev day -0.42 -0.21 -2.22 -3.98

as on July 3, 2013 % Change WoW -1.02 -0.99 -0.80 -4.68 MoM 1.81 0.91 -1.92 2.34 YoY -2.54 -2.01 53.54 40.80

Jeera Spot- NCDEX Jeera- NCDEX July '13 Fut Turmeric Spot- NCDEX Turmeric- NCDEX July '13 Fut

Source: Reuters

Jeera Spread Matrix

Spot 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 Closing 13644.8 13270 13635 13930 19-Jul-13 -374.8 0 20-Aug-13 -9.8 365 0 -

as on July 3, 2013 20-Sep-13 285.2 660 295 0 as on July 3, 2013 19-Jul-13 58 0 20-Aug-13 186 128 0 20-Sep-13 300 242 114 0 as on July 2, 2013 Stocks as on Qty in 1st July Process 1112 7477 8589 5378 NCDEX August contract 92 240 332 338

Arrivals production and Exports

Arrivals in Unjha were reported at 10,000 bags on Wednesday. Exports of Jeera in 2012 - 2013 stood at 79,900 tn, an increase of 75%. (Source:
Spices Board)

Turmeric Spread Matrix

Spot 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 Closing 5726 5784 5912 6026

Production of Jeera in 2012-13 is expected around 40-45 lakh bags (55 kgs each), marginally higher than 40 lakh bags last year. Carryover stocks from 2011-12 harvest were around 8-9 lakh bags.

Outlook
Jeera may trade on a mixed note with a positive bias. Good overseas is expected to support prices. However, good supplies may cap upside. Overall trend remains positive for Jeera due to overseas demand, as Syria & Turkey are not supplying which may keep the prices firm.

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Jeera Turmeric Jodhpur Unjha Total Nizamabad Stocks as on 2nd July 1124 7517 8641 5378 Qty in Process 89 369 485 586

Turmeric
Turmeric futures extended yesterdays losses and hit the lower circuit as sowing has picked up in Andhra Pradesh. Also, weak upcountry demand, poor quality arrivals and rains have pressurized prices further0. The spot prices settled 2.22% lower. However, the overseas demand is expected to remain strong.

Technical Chart Jeera

Production, Arrivals and Exports

Arrivals in Erode and Nizamabad mandi were reported at 4,000 bags and 5,000 bags respectively on Wednesday. Sowing of Turmeric in AP is reported at 0.18 lakh ha as on 3rd July, 2013 as against 0.1 lakh ha last year and a normal sowing of 0.12 lakh ha. Production in 2012-13 is expected around 45 lakh bags, lower by 4050%. It is estimated that current years carryover stocks would be around 10 lakh bags. (1 bag= 75 kgs). Exports for 2012-13 stood at 80,050 tn, marginally higher than 79,500 tn last year. (Source: Spices Board) Outlook Turmeric may trade with a downside pressure today on account of improvement in the sowing of the new crop. Weak upcountry demand as well as good monsoon progress may also add to the downside pressure. Huge carryover stocks are also likely to keep prices under check. However, any improvement in the quality of arrivals as well as overseas demand may support prices at lower levels.

Technical Chart Turmeric

NCDEX August contract

Technical Outlook
Jeera NCDEX Aug Futures Turmeric NCDEX Aug Futures Unit `/qtl `/qtl

Valid for July 04, 2013

Support 13400-13530 5720-5800 Resistance 13750-13860 6020-6100

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Thursday| July 04, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Sugar
Sugar August contract declined by 0.49% on Wednesday on account of lackluster demand from the bulk consumers and sufficient supplies. However, fresh export deals limited the downside in the prices. Demand from the bulk consumers such as Ice cream and beverage manufacturers generally decline during the monsoon as rainfall brings down temperature. Indian traders have signed deals to export 75,000 tonnes of white sugar in July, reversing an import trend after the rupee's depreciation and with strong demand in Gulf and African states due to the Islamic fasting month of Ramadan. (Source: Reuters dated 1st July, 2013) According to the Ministry of Agriculture, Sugarcane has been planted in 44.55 lakh ha as compared to 46.78 lakh ha as drought affected Maharashtra and Karnataka have reported lower area.

Market Highlights
Unit Sugar SpotNCDEX Sugar M- NCDEX July '13 Fut Sugar No 5- LiffeAug'13 Fut Sugar No 11-ICE July '13 Fut `/qtl 2975 `/qtl 497.4 $/tonne 364.89 $/tonne -0.67 0.36 -0.60 Last 3057

as on July 3, 2013 % Change Prev. day WoW -0.37 0.10 -1.62 -3.94 -3.47 MoM 0.05 -2.14 4.47 -0.06 YoY -0.05 1.26 -21.38 -25.30

Source: Reuters

Sugar Spread Matrix

Spot 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 Closing 3057.25 2975 3031 3074 19-Jul-13 -82.25 0 20-Aug-13 -26.25 56 0 -

as on July 3, 2013 20-Sep-13 16.75 99 43 0

Domestic Production and Exports

After producing surplus sugar in the current season, sugar output is expected to decline in 2013-14 season on account of lower plantings. According to ISMA, Indias Sugar production between October -April stood at 24.52 mn tn, lower by 3 percent during the same period last year. Maharashtras production dipped 10% to 8 mn tn while production in Uttar Pradesh increased by 7% to 7.43 mn tn. India is likely to produce 24.6 mn tn of sugar in 2012-13 year ending on Sept. 30, higher than the previous estimate of 24.3 mn tn, the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) said. With the opening stocks of 6.5 mn tn, domestic Sugar supplies are estimated at higher against the domestic consumption of around 22.5 mln tn for 2012-13.

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Delhi Kolhapur Sangli Solapur Total Stocks as on July 1 2448 7697 1022 1228 12395 Qty in Process 250 100 0 0 350 Stocks as on July 1 2448 7697 1022 1228 12395

as on July 2, 2013 Qty in Process 250 100 0 0 350

Global Sugar Updates

ICE Sugar futures declined further and settled 67% lower on account of abundant supplies from Brazil coupled with expectations of a dry July which may boost the harvesting and crushing. Sugar production in Brazil's main cane-growing region which was up by almost 59% till May fell in first half of June because wet weather held up crushing. Since April 1 to 15 June, mills have produced 7.39 mn tn of sugar, up 51%. Mills have used 58.1% of the cane crush for ethanol since the start of the season - up sharply from 54.4% at this time last year - with the rest used for sugar. Prices have declined sharply over the past few months and touched three years low last week due to three back to back years of sugar surplus coupled with supplies from Brazil.

Technical Chart - Sugar

NCDEX August contract

Source: Telequote

Outlook
In the current week, we expect sugar prices to consolidate at the current levels as weak rupee has reduced imports while the same has made exports attractive. Also, recovery in the international markets may restrict further fall in the prices. However, upside will also be capped as good monsoon is raising hopes of good yields.

Technical Outlook
Contract Sugar Aug NCDEX Futures Unit `/qtl

valid for July 04, 2013 Support 3013-3022 Resistance 3040-3049

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Thursday| July 04, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Kapas
MCX Cotton as well as NCDEX Kapas futures traded on a positive note yesterday and settled 1.71% and 0.87% higher on Wednesday tracking positive international markets coupled with demand for cotton from yarn manufacturers. Weakness in the Rupee also helped to push up the prices. The CCEA has increased the MSP of Cotton by `100 to `3,700/qtl for medium staple and `4,000/qtl for long staple. With the cotton season nearing its end, arrivals have declined considerably. According to CCI, Cotton arrivals since the beginning of the seaosn (Oct 2012- Sep 2013) is reported at 318.62, down 2.2 percent compared to same period last year.

Market Highlights
Unit `20 kgs `/Bale USc/Lbs Last 1069.5 19700 84.39 92

as on July 3, 2013 % Change Prev. day WoW 1.71 -0.37 0.87 0.61 1.41 0.85 -0.76 -0.27 MoM YoY -0.37 #N/A 4.95 18.46 2.46 16.00 3.60 9.59
Source: Reuters

NCDEX Kapas Apr Fut MCX Cotton July Fut ICE Cotton Cot look A Index

Cotton Spread Matrix

Closing 28-Jun-13 31-Jul-13 31-Oct-13 19700 20480 20310 28-Jun-13 0

as on July 3, 2013 31-Jul-13 31-Oct-13 780 0 610 -170 0

Sowing Progress
Cotton planting has been reported at 55.76 lakh ha as against 31.38 lakh ha during the same period last year. Cotton acreage has seen a significant jump over last year in Gujarat, Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh, while the planting is over in the Northern States of Punjab and Haryana.

Domestic Production and Consumption

Cotton Advisory Board (CAB) in its latest meet dated 17 April 2013 has projected cotton crop at 34 mn bales for 2012-13 season compared to the previous estimates of 33 mn bales. Mill consumption is expected to go up from 22.3 million bales last year to 23.5 million bales. Exports are estimated at 8.1 mn bales while imports are estimated 2.5 mn bales. However, Cotton Association of Indias estimates differ from that of the CAB which pegs cotton output for 2012-13 at 35.2 million bales as on May 31 down 6% compared with 37.3 million bales in 2011-12.
th

Cotton Stock Position at MCX Warehouse

Location Aurangabad Yavatmal Rajkot Kadi Sendhwa Warangal Total Stocks as on July 2 12300 5900 117900 24300 900 100 161400

as on July 2, 2013 Stocks as on July 1 12300 5900 117900 24300 900 100 161400

Global Cotton Updates

ICE Cotton futures traded higher and gained 1.41% on Wednesday as funds were buying at lower levels. However, the overall trades remained light ahead of the trading holiday today. ICAC has lowered projections for global production and endings stocks for the 2013/14 crop year. Demand from mills in China is also expected to remain strong. As per USDA acreage report, the estimate for U.S. cotton planted acreage is down 17% from 2012, but is up from March 2013 estimates. ICE Futures U.S. certified stocks are at three-year highs of 600,000 bales. But almost a fifth of that total was already slated to be delivered against the nearby contract when it expires on July 9. (Reuters). This is Large enough to deplete swelling exchange stocks 20 percent or more, and tighten supplies heading into the new 2013/14 crop year. Rains in West Texas raised cotton prospects in top US cotton producing state last week which exerted downside pressure on the prices.

Technical Chart - Kapas

NCDEX April contract

Technical Chart - Cotton

MCX July contract

Outlook
Cotton may trade with a positive bias today supported by good yarn demand coupled with ICACs estimates of lower global production. Higher MSP may also support prices. However, higher planting in India and weak international prices may pressurize prices at higher levels.

Technical Outlook
Contract Kapas NCDEX April 14 Fut Cotton MCX July Futures Unit `/20 kgs `/bale

valid for July 04, 2013 Support 1045-1056 19440-19570 Resistance 1078-1088 19820-19960
Source: Telequote www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

`
Thursday| July 04, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Guar Complex
Guar seed as well as Guar gum July Futures settled 0.29% and 1.16% higher respectively on Wednesday. However, spot continue to decline tracking higher sowing of the guar crop. Since the resumption of Guarseed and Guar gum contracts on the futures platform, prices are on a downward trend on account of host of factors like bumper summer harvest in Gujarat, smooth monsoon progress and expected higher sowing.

Market Highlights
Unit Guar Seed SpotNCDEX Guar Seed- NCDEX July 13 Fut Guar Gum SpotNCDEX Guar Gum- NCDEX July13 Fut `/qtl 6990 `/qtl 20062 `/qtl 20000 `/qtl 1.16 -0.29 0.29 Last Prev day 7093 -0.01

as on July 3, 2013 % change WoW -2.25 -2.24 -2.18 -2.72 MoM -13.28 -11.96 -16.36 -16.53 YoY #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A

Monsoon and Sowing

For the country as a whole, cumulative rainfall during this years monsoon has so far upto 30 June been 32% above the LPA. IMD in its second long range forecast predicted monsoon in Northwest India to be 94 percent of the Long Period Average (LPA). The major guar growing states in India are Rajasthan, Haryana, and Gujarat. Sowing in the irrigated areas takes place during early June while in the rain fed areas it starts with the onset of monsoon in July. According to Rajasthan Farm Department, Guarseed acreage as on 27 June, 2013 stood at 2.83 lakh hectares compared with 45000 hectares sown last year.
th

Source: Reuters

NCDEX Guarseed Spread Matrix

Spot 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 Closing 7093.35 6990 5620 5570 19-Jul-13 -103.35 0 20-Aug-13 -1473.35 -1370 0 -

as on July 3, 2013 20-Sep-13 -1523.35 -1420 -50 0 as on July 3, 2013 20-Aug-13 -3411.8 -3350 0 20-Sep-13 -3561.8 -3500 -150 0 as on July 2, 2013 Stocks as on 1 July 59 81
st

NCDEX Guar gum Spread Matrix

Spot 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 Closing 20061.8 20000 16650 16500 19-Jul-13 -61.8 0 -

Guarseed area increased significantly Last year. With favorable monsoon and higher returns acreage may remain higher in the coming season too.

Production and Exports

According to Rajasthan Farm Departments third advance estimates, Guarseed production stood at 20.23 lakh tonnes in 2012-13. Although production is higher compared to the previous year, but still it is much below the initial expectations on account of erratic monsoon last year. In the coming season, higher sowing along with timely rains may boost guar production across India. However, if rains turn truant in the major guar growing areas, then this may adversely impact output. Exports which touched record 7.07 lakh tonnes in the FY 2011-12, declined in the FY 2012-13 as US, the largest importer of Guar gum has stocked huge inventories. During the FY 2012-13, guar gum exports stood at 4.58 lakh tonnes during April 2012-February 2013. US has stocked

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Deesa Bikaner Stocks as on 2nd July 59 81 Qty in Process 0 0

Qty in Process 0 0

Technical Chart - Guar Seed

NCDEX October contract

Outlook
Early monsoon and higher sowing so far has raised hopes of timely harvesting. This may keep prices under downside pressure. However, sharp downside may be restricted as farmers might hold back their stocks at lower prices.

Technical Outlook
Contract Guar Seed Oct (NCDEX) Guar Seed Oct (MCX) Guar Gum Oct (NCDEX) Guar Gum Oct (MCX) Unit `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl

valid for July 04, 2013 Support 5400-5480 5380-5480 16070-16330 16090-16360 Resistance 5700-5790 5700-5790 16930-17260 16970-17280

Technical Chart - Guar Gum

NCDEX October contract

Source: Telequote

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