Commodities Daily Report

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Friday| 16 Aug, 2013
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Agricultural Commodities

Content
News & Market Highlights Chana Oilseeds Edible Oils Spices Sugar Cotton Guar Complex

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar Chief Manager- Agri Commodities [email protected] (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6130 Shruti Ghanekar Research Associate [email protected] (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6133 Anuj Choudhary Research Analyst [email protected] (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6132

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Disclaimer: The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. The company does not warrant its accuracy, completeness and correctness. The document is not, and should not be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published, in whole or in part, by any recipient hereof for any purpose without prior permission from Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd. Your feedback is appreciated on [email protected]

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Commodities Daily Report

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Friday| 16 Aug, 2013
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Agricultural Commodities
NEWS HIGHLIGHTS
Steps being taken to Ensure Adequate Availability of Onion
The following steps are being taken to ensure adequate availability of onion in the consumer market at reasonable prices: NAFED will import onion from other countries at best rates and offer the same for domestic consumption in the country. NAFED will procure 4 to 5 MT onion per day from mandis of Rajasthan directly through farmers and APMCs and supply the same through its retail outlets and mobile vans in Delhi besides undertaking wholesale auction of the stock through Azadpur APMC Delhi. NAFED will procure onion at best prevailing rates from mandis of Lasalgaon/ Pimpalgaon at Nasik District in Maharashtra and offer the same to all State marketing and supply federations at a nominal service charge of 2%. (Source: PIB, GOI)

Market Highlights (% change)

Last Prev. day

as on August 14, 2013

WoW MoM YoY

Sensex Nifty INR/$ Nymex Crude Oil - $/bbl Comex Gold - $/oz

19368 5742 61.28 106.85 1334

0.72 0.75 -0.09 0.02 0.97

3.76 4.04 0.12 2.38 3.72

-2.96 -4.44 2.33 0.85 4.40

9.25 6.73 10.20 14.36 -16.59

.Source: Reuters

Two months on, monsoon marches without a break

Two months after it covered the entire country much ahead of schedule, this year's monsoon continues to surprise, albeit pleasantly. The monsoon has been active without a 'break' since June 16 and rains have so far been 113% of the long term average. One or two periods of a break in monsoon - defined as three straight days of very low rain activity across central India - are common during the rainy season. Since 2000, there have only been three years when there was no monsoon break. And all three years coincided with plentiful rains. "Two months of monsoon activity without a break is rather rare. It's an indication of a good monsoon," said M Rajeevan, senior weather scientist at the earth sciences ministry. (Source: Times of India)

India's veg oil imports up 2% in July

India's vegetable oil imports rose by 2% to 8,89,493 tonnes in July as against the year-ago period, the industry body SEA said today. It said the rupee fall is putting pressure on shipments. The country had imported 8,70,328 tonnes of vegetable oil during the same period last year, it said in a statement. "The rupee has suddenly fallen in last few days, putting some pressure on import of vegetable oils," Mumbai-based Solvent Extractors' Association (SEA) said. Of the total imports in July, edible oils comprised 874,703 tonnes. The shipment of palm oil was at 5,77,753 tonnes, followed by soyabean oil at 2,34,650 tonnes and sunflower oil at 62,300 tonnes. (Source: Business Standard)

Maharashtra sugar cooperatives want to set up a supply pool

Maharashtra's sugar cooperatives have proposed forming a pool to supply sugar required by the state government for the public distribution scheme (PDS). The proposal was discussed at a meeting convened by the Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories in Maharashtra on Tuesday. The federation is expected to take up its proposal with the state government, with a plea to enter into a memorandum of understanding (MoU). Maharashtra contributes 30 per cent to the national sugar output. The objective is to get market rate for cooperatives, supply quality sugar, reduce transportation cost and ultimately help the government to reduce expenses incurred on the procurement of sugar. The federation is keen to enter into an MoU with the government for the pool mechanism," said Sanjeev Babar, managing director, Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories in Maharashtra. (Source: Business Standard)

Maha govt asks farmers to release 600,000 tonne of onions to stabilise price
Amid rising onion prices in the retail market, the Maharashtra government on Wednesday asked growers to immediately release 5.50 lakh to 6 lakh tonnes onion in the market. Onions are currently stored by onion growers in various storages. The government hopes that the availability of additional quantity will help stabilize price and also avoid any move to ban exports. The government's move comes close on the heels of onion prices surged to Rs 70 per kg in the retail market. Maharashtra State Agricultural Marketing Board official, who was present at the meeting, told Business Standard ''At present, onion growers are earning Rs 4,500 per quintal against the cost of production of Rs 800-900 per quintal. However, the government has asked the Maharashtra State Agricultural Marketing Board to appeal to the farmers to release 5.50 lakh to 6 lakh ton of onion currently in storages.'' Besides, the government will also bring to the farmers' notice that if the onions continue to remain in storages there is all chances that they may be spoiled. (Source: Business Standard)

Record-high world wheat production projected

Global production for 2013/14 is up 7.6 million tons this month to 705.4 million as increases for the EU and FSU, as well as smaller increases for Canada, India, and Turkey, swamp reductions for Argentina, and Brazil. Wheat production prospects for the United States are nearly unchanged. As projected, global wheat output would top the 2011/12 record by more than 8 million tons. Wheat production for the EU, the worlds largest producer, is up 2.8 million tons this month to 141.4 million. The largest increase is projected for Spain, up 0.8 million tons to 7.7 million, which brings the countrys wheat yield to record high. This past winter and spring Spain enjoyed a combination of very favorable precipitation and temperatures, and the wheat harvest there already has been completed. Overall good conditions in July, mostly warmer and drier weather in northern Europe, resulted in rapid wheat maturation and benefited countries from Ireland and the United Kingdom to France, Germany, and Poland the major EU wheat producers. (Source:
www.agprofessional.com)

Portions of US corn and soy crops face threat from dry weather
A turn to dry weather in late August in parts of the U.S. corn and soybean growing region threatens to trim yields and boost prices for each commodity, traders and meteorologists said on Thursday. "About 20 percent of the corn and soybean growing acreage will stay dry," said Don Keeney, meteorologist for MDA Weather Services. Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) corn futures rallied 10 cents per bushel and soybean futures rose 15 cents on Thursday on concerns the dryness would trim yields of each crop. "The soy complex is firmer across the board this morning as there are some concerns about weather conditions in dry areas of the Midwest over the next two weeks, principally in Iowa," said an industry source. (Source: Reuters)

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Commodities Daily Report

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Friday| 16 Aug, 2013
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Agricultural Commodities
Chana
Chana Futures traded on a positive note on Wednesday supported by a pickup in the demand ahead of the upcoming festive season. However, adequate stock positions coupled with higher sowing estimates of kharif pulses pressurized prices in the spot markets. The spot settled 1.89% lower while the Futures settled 0.5% higher. Higher chana production in 2012-13 coupled with a higher sowing of the kharif pulses have pressurized prices over the past few weeks. As per a circular by NCDEX dated July 25 2013, Special Margin of 5% on the Short side has been imposed in all running contracts and yet to be launched contract in Chana (SYMBOL : CHARJDDEL) with effect from beginning of day Saturday, July 27, 2013. Ministry of Agriculture released its fourth Advance estimates of Food grain production on Monday wherein it pegged Chana signifincalty higher at record 8.8 mn tn in the current season 2012-13. With a significant hike in MSP of kharif Pulses for 2013-14 season, area under cultivation is expected to increase in the coming season too. Further good monsoon may not only support good yield of kharif pulses, but also ensure favorable soil condition for sowing of Rabi pulses vizChana and Moong. As per data released by Maharashtra Govt, pulses sowing was th undertaken on 18.6 la ha as on 9 Aug, 2013, a 7.5% increase from last year. Simalarly, according to data from Gujarat Govt, pulses were sown th on 4.16 la ha as on 5 Aug 2013, an increase of 30% as compared to the same period last year.

Market Highlights
Unit Chana Spot - NCDEX Chana- NCDEX Aug'13 Fut
`/qtl `/qtl

as on Aug 14, 2013 % change Last 2943 2824 Prev day -1.89 0.50 WoW 1.64 3.03 MoM -4.67 -5.61
Source: Reuters

YoY -39.93 -41.41

Spread Matrix
Closing 2943.45 2824 2857 2935 20-Aug-13 -119.45 0 -

as on Aug 14, 2013 20-Sep-13 -86.45 33 0 18-Oct-13 -8.45 111 78 0 as on Aug 13, 2013 Stocks as on 12th Aug 69098 57795 11957 138850 Qty in Process 160 30 0 190

Spot 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 18-Oct-13

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Bikaner Delhi Indore Total Stocks as on 13th Aug 67752 56816 11927 136495 Qty in Process 160 30 0 190

309

111

938

1358

Demand supply scenario

According to fourth advance Estimates released on 22 July 2013, Total pulses output for 2012-13 season has been pegged at record 18.45 mn tn compared to the third advance estimates of 18 mn tn and 17.09 mn tn produced in 2011-12 seaosn. Kharif Pulses witnessed a marginal decline in the output which was offset by a considerable rise in Rabi output, especially Chana. Higher returns earned in 2012, coupled with a hike in minimum support prices (MSP), and helped expand overall chana acreage in 2012-13 seasons. Chana sowing in 2012-13 was 5.65% higher at 95.17 lakh ha compared to previous year. As per the estimates, Chana output is pegged at a record 8.8 mn tn compared with its third advance estimates of 8.49 million tonnes and a previous record of 8.2 mn tn in 2010-11.
nd

Technical Chart - Chana

NCDEX September contract

Source: Telequote

Outlook
Chana is expected trade with a positive bias today on account of improvement in demand ahead of the upcoming festive season. Excessive rains in Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra may also support prices as it may raise fears of crop damage. However, higher output coupled with higher sowing of kharif pulses may cap sharp gains and pressurize prices at higher levels.

Technical Levels
Contract Chana Sept Futures Unit `/qtl Support

valid for Aug 16, 2013 Resistance 2890-2920

2783-2820

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Commodities Daily Report

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Friday| 16 Aug, 2013
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Agricultural Commodities
Soybean
Soybean futures witnessed a sharp correction on Wednesdays and prices retreated from their highest levels in four weeks on account of lower rains in central and western India. Excessive rains have raised fears of crop damage, preventing a sharp decline. Expectations of a bumper output due to a sharp increase in the acreage have kept prices under check. The spot settled as well as the Futures settled 0.75% and 2.38% lower on Wednesday. Indias soy meal exports in July declined by 36.4% to 1.07 lakh tonnes as compared to 1.68 lakh tonnes last year. According to the fourth Advance estimates of Food grain production released by the Ministry of Agriculture Soybean output is pegged significantly higher at record 14.6 mn tn in the current season 2012-13 compared with 12.2 mn tn in 2011-12. Total nine Oilseeds production is pegged at 31 MT in 2012-13, slightly higher than 29.79 MT achieved in the previous year. As per the IMD, Cumulative rainfall as on 11 August in the central India (major soy belt), were 37% above the LPA, with West and East Madhya Pradesh receiving 75% and 44% above normal respectively. As per data released by the Maharashtra Govt, area under oilseeds was th recorded at 36.3 la ha on 9 Aug, 2013, an increase of 6.45 percent as compared to the corresponding period last year. International Markets CBOT Soybean September futures gained 1.5% on Thursday on account of weather concerns coupled with higher than expected export sales data. Prices have gained over the last five days as the USDA monthly crop report revised the acreage to 77.2 mn acres from its earlier estimates of 77.7 mn acres. Harvest estimates have also been trimmed to 3.255 bn bushels from the earlier estimates of 3.42 bn bushels. Forecast of 2013-14 ending stocks have also been slashed from 295 mn bushels in July to 220 mn bushels. The USDA Crop Progress report rated the U.S. crop at 64% good-toexcellent, against 64% last week on favorable weather in the Midwest. USDA reported that 58% of the crop is setting pods vs. 81% a year ago. Also, 88% of the soybean crop is blooming vs. 96% a year ago.
th

Market Highlights

as on Aug 14, 2013 % Change Prev day WoW -0.75 3.97 -2.38 -5.83 -0.38 -0.97 1.91 -4.98 2.44 2.93

Unit Soybean Spot- NCDEX Soybean- NCDEX Oct '13 Fut Soybean-CBOT Sept'13 Fut RM Seed Spot- NCDEX RM Seed- NCDEX Aug '13 Fut
`/qtl `/qtl

Last 3559 2990 1288 3500 3271

MoM -5.27 -21.23 -11.38 2.44 -3.91

YoY -20.42 -34.03 -22.38 -21.57 -24.67

USc/Bsh
`/qtl `/qtl

Source: Reuters

Soybean Spread Matrix

Closing 3559 Spot 18-Oct-13 20-Nov-13 20-Dec-13 2989.5 2997.5 3026.5 0 8 0 18-Oct-13 -569.5 20-Nov-13 -561.5

as on Aug 14, 2013 20-Dec-13 -532.5 37 29 0 as on Aug 14, 2013 20-Sep-13 -212 17 0 18-Oct-13 -182 47 30 0 as on Aug 13, 2013 Qty in Process 0 0 0 0 as on Aug 13, 2013 Qty in Process 0 0 0 0 61 0 0 61 NCDEX October contract

Mustard Seed Spread Matrix

Spot 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 18-Oct-13 Closing 3500 3271 3288 3318 20-Aug-13 -229 0 -

Soybean stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Akola Nagpur Sagar Total Stocks as on 13th Aug 41 0 0 41 Qty in Process 0 0 0 0 Qty in Process 0 0 0 0 60 0 10 70 Stocks as on 12th Aug 41 0 0 41 Stocks as on 12th Aug 1776 322 10952 644 51471 1962 1651 68778

RM Seed stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Alwar Bharatpur Bikaner Hapur Jaipur Kota Sriganganagar Total Stocks as on 13th Aug 1776 322 10106 644 50898 1791 1481 67018

Outlook
Soybean is expected to trade higher today tracking higher international prices coupled with tight supplies and an overall weakness in the Rupee. However, higher sowing coupled with higher output estimates as well as receding rains in the major soybean growing regions may cap sharp upside and pressurize prices at higher levels.

Rape/mustard Seed
Mustard seed futures corrected from higher levels and settled 0.97% lower on Wednesday on account of profit taking coupled with comfortable supplies. However, good demand for mustard on the back of tight supplies of soybean supported prices at lower levels. Agriculture ministry in its fourth advance estimates, pegged mustard output at 7.82 mn tn, up by 18.4% compared to 2011-12 season.

Technical Chart Soybean

Outlook
Mustard seed is expected to trade with a positive bias today tracking higher edible oilseed prices coupled with soybean crop damage fears. However, higher production and sufficient supplies this season may cap sharp upside in the prices.

Technical Levels
Contract Soybean NCDEX Oct Futures RM Seed NCDEX Sept Futures Unit `/qtl `/qtl

valid for Aug 16, 2013 Support 2925-2955 3230-3260 Resistance 3030-3060 3325-3360
Source: Telequote

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Commodities Daily Report

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Friday| 16 Aug, 2013
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Agricultural Commodities
Refined Soy Oil
Ref soy oil September futures corrected from higher levels on Wednesday and settled 1.44% lower on account of profit taking coupled with comfortable supplies. Prices have gained significantly over the past few days due to festive demand coupled with a weak Rupee. Agri Ministrys proposed to increase the import duty on refined oil coupled with fears of soybean crop damage also supported prices at lower levels. India meet 50-55 percent of its edible consumption through imports and thus rupee factor is a major determinant of edible oil prices. As per the data released by the Solvent Extractors' Association of India Imports of vegetable oils, including non-edible oils, declined 6.13% to 889493 tn in July. Monthly soy oil imports rose 2.7% as local supplies are almost exhausted before the new planting season for soybean. Stockpiles of edible oil at ports on July 1 stood at 690,000 tn, the trade body said, higher than 675,000 tn on June 1. Stocks were still on the higher side despite the decline in monthly imports.

Market Highlights
% Change Unit `/10 kg `/10 kg USc/ Bushel MYR/Tonne `/10 kg Last 681.15 676.65 43.12 2365 508.60 Prev day -0.20 -0.62 1.77 1.33 -0.02

as on Aug 14, 2013

Ref Soy oil SpotNCDEX Ref Soy oil- NCDEX Aug '13 Fut Soybean Oil- CBOTSept'13 Fut
CPO-Bursa Malaysia Sept '13 Fut CPO-MCX- Aug '13 Futures

WoW 1.32 1.84 3.53 3.82 1.99

MoM -1.02 -1.78 -5.93 1.50 2.13

YoY -12.27 -13.26 -18.75 -15.48 -7.66

Source: Reuters

Refined Soy Oil Spread Matrix

Spot 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 18-Oct-13 Closing 681.15 676.65 653.1 623.3 20-Aug-13 -4.5 0 20-Sep-13 -28.05 -23.55 0 -

as on Aug 14, 2013 18-Oct-13 -57.85 -53.35 -29.8 0 as on Aug 14, 2013

Outlook
Ref soy oil is expected to trade on a mixed note. Festive demand, high soybean prices and an overall weakness in the Rupee may support prices. However, comfortable stock position of imported edible oil may pressurize prices at higher levels.

CPO Spread Matrix

31-Aug-13 30-Sep-13 31-Oct-13 Closing 508.6 501.8 491.1 31-Aug-13 0 30-Sep-13 -6.8 0 -

Crude Palm Oil

MCX CPO Futures traded on a flat note and settled 0.02% lower on Wednesday. Festive demand coupled with weakness in the Rupee has supported prices. However, overall weakness on the KLCE due to higher output expectations has pressurized prices. Malaysian palm oil futures had earlier declined to the lowest level this year and have spurred demand for most consumed cooking oil. Exports of Malaysian palm oil products during Aug 1-15 increased 17.7% to 644,589 tons tonnes from 547,857 tonnes shipped during July 1-15. Malaysia has set the export tax for Palm oil at 4.5% for September, unchanged since March. According to Malaysian Palm oil Board, exports increased 0.53% in July against June, while end stocks increased 1%. Exports increased due to Ramadan demand. Communal feasting during Ramadan drives up consumption of vegetable oil. India's refined palm oil imports declined 27.8 per cent in July to 213,853 tn from 296, 230 tn in June as weakness in the Rupee made imports expensive.

31-Oct-13 -17.5 -10.7 0

Technical Chart Ref Soy Oil

NCDEX September contract

Outlook
CPO futures may trade on a mixed note today. Festive demand coupled with a weakness in the Rupee may also support prices. However, comfortable supplies may cap sharp upside in the prices.

Technical Chart Crude Palm Oil

MCX Aug contract

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Contract Soy Oil Sept NCDEX Futures CPO MCX Aug Futures Unit `/qtl `/qtl

valid for Aug 16, 2013 Support 645-649 501-505 Resistance 660-666 511-513

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Commodities Daily Report

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Friday| 16 Aug, 2013
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Agricultural Commodities
Spices
Jeera
Jeera Futures traded on a mixed note with a positive bias on Wednesday and settled 0.26% higher. Prices have gained over the past few sessions on account of overseas as well as domestic demand. However, higher arrivals and good rains in Gujarat capped sharp upside. Good rains in the main jeera growing regions have increased the moisture content of the soil, improving prospects of a better sowing in the coming season. Currently, about 70% of total arrivals have been traded in the mandis. According to IBIS, India exported 9462.64 tn of jeera in June. The major destinations were UAE, Nepal, Vietnam & USA. In the global markets, there is a supply crunch due to the ongoing geopolitical tensions in Syria and Turkey, which has raised supply concerns from these two major exporting countries. Export orders are diverted to India. Production is also expected to decline in Syria and Turkey. 1% Jeera of Indian origin is being offered for Singapore at $2,325- (FOB Mum) while for Europe at $2,500/tn (CNF).

Market Highlights
Unit `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl Last 13527 13260 5069 4644 Prev day -0.42 0.26 0.45 -1.57

as on Aug 14, 2013 % Change WoW -0.38 0.13 0.63 -3.21 MoM -1.74 -2.27 -12.09 -21.92 YoY -16.21 -15.12 -7.11 -18.38

Jeera Spot- NCDEX Jeera- NCDEX July '13 Aug Turmeric Spot- NCDEX Turmeric- NCDEX Aug '13 Fut

Source: Reuters

Jeera Spread Matrix

Spot 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 18-Oct-13 Closing 13527 13260 13327.5 13477.5 20-Aug-13 -267 0 20-Sep-13 -199.5 67.5 0 -

as on Aug 14, 2013 18-Oct-13 -49.5 217.5 150 0 as on Aug 14, 2013 20-Aug-13 -425.3 0 20-Sep-13 -359.3 66 0 18-Oct-13 -285.3 140 74 0 as on Aug 13, 2013 Stocks as on Qty in 12th Aug Process 1445 3840 5285 8655 NCDEX Sept contract 12 174 186 0

Arrivals production and Exports

Arrivals in Unjha were reported at 7,000 bags on Wednesday. Exports of Jeera in 2012 - 2013 stood at 79,900 tn, an increase of 75%. (Source:
Spices Board)

Turmeric Spread Matrix

Spot 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 18-Oct-13 Closing 5069.3 4644 4710 4784

Production of Jeera in 2012-13 is expected around 40-45 lakh bags (55 kgs each), marginally higher than 40 lakh bags last year. Carryover stocks from 2011-12 harvest were around 8-9 lakh bags.

Outlook
Jeera may trade on a mixed note. Overseas as well as domestic demand may support prices. However, higher supplies and good rains in the jeera sowing regions may cap the upside and pressurize prices at higher levels.. Overall trend remains positive for Jeera due to overseas demand, as Syria & Turkey are not shipping.

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Jeera Turmeric Jodhpur Unjha Total Nizamabad Stocks as on 13th Aug 1438 3927 5365 8655 Qty in Process 0 12 12 0

Turmeric
Turmeric futures traded on a negative note on Wednesday on account of huge carryover stocks as well as good sowing progress. however, lower level support prices in the spot. The Spot settled 0.45% higher while the Futures settled 1.57% lower. The regulator imposed 10% special margin on short side in Turmeric w.e.f 06/08/2013.

Technical Chart Jeera

Production, Arrivals and Exports

Arrivals in Nizamabad and Erode are report at 1,000 bags and 4,000 bags respectively on Tuesday. Sowing of Turmeric in AP is reported at th 0.45 lakh ha as on 14 August, as against 0.47 lakh ha last year and a normal sowing of 0.57 lakh ha. Production in 2012-13 is reported around 45 lakh bags, lower by 4050%. It is estimated that current years carryover stocks would be around 10 lakh bags. (1 bag= 75 kgs). Exports for 2012-13 stood at 80,050 tn, marginally higher than 79,500 tn last year. (Source: Spices Board) Outlook Turmeric may trade with a negative bias today. Huge carryover stocks coupled with the ongoing sowing and a good monsoon progress may pressurize prices. However, an increase in the margins on the short side coupled with declining arrivals may support prices at lower levels.

Technical Chart Turmeric

NCDEX Sept contract

Technical Outlook
Jeera NCDEX Sept Futures Turmeric NCDEX Sept Futures Unit `/qtl `/qtl

Valid for Aug 16, 2013

Support 13200-13260 4570-4640 Resistance 13390-13460 4790-4850
Source: Telequote

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Commodities Daily Report

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Friday| 16 Aug, 2013
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Agricultural Commodities
Sugar
Sugar futures traded on a mixed note yesterday and settled 0.27% lower on Wednesday as ample supplies have kept prices under check. However, improvement in demand in the spot ahead of the festive season has supported prices at lower levels. An increase in the import duty as well as export demand also supported prices. The Food Minister said that his ministry has moved a cabinet proposal to allow state governments to hike prices of sugar for PDS. Good monsoon conditions in Maharashtra and Karnataka has led to expectations of recovery in the cane yield, keeping prices under pressure. Indian traders have signed deals to export 75,000 tonnes of white sugar in July, reversing an import trend after the rupee's depreciation. However, the same didnt reflect in the market as supplies are significantly higher. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, Sugarcane has been planted in nd 48.53 la ha as on 2 Aug 2013 as compared to 50.06 la ha last year as drought affected Maharashtra and Karnataka have reported lower area. Based on satellite images for June and field surveys carried out by ISMA (Indian Sugar Mills Association), total sugarcane acreage available for crushing in the sugar season 2013-14 will be about 51.50 lakh hectares, which is about 1.52% less than 52.30 lakh hectares last year. (Source: ET)

Market Highlights
Unit Sugar SpotNCDEX Sugar M- NCDEX Aug '13 Fut Sugar No 5- LiffeOct'13 Fut Sugar No 11-ICE October '13 Fut `/qtl 3054 `/qtl 504.5 $/tonne 382.00 $/tonne -0.35 0.04 0.39 Last 3044

as on Aug 14, 2013 % Change Prev. day WoW -0.21 -0.40 1.36 2.31 2.20 MoM YoY -0.66 -14.24 2.93 5.04 6.37 -13.70 -10.76 -15.28

Source: Reuters

Sugar Spread Matrix

Spot 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 18-Oct-13 Closing 3043.6 3054 3010 3027 20-Aug-13 10.4 0 20-Sep-13 -33.6 -44 0 -

as on Aug 14, 2013 18-Oct-13 -16.6 -27 17 0

Domestic Production and Exports

After producing surplus sugar in the current season, sugar output is expected to decline in 2013-14 season on account of lower plantings. However, good monsoon has curbed some losses. According to the preliminary estimate of an industry body, Production is estimated to be 237 lakh tonne for 2013-14 season as compared to 250 lakh tonnes in 2012-13. According to trade body, with a domestic consumption of 235 lakh tonne and an expected production of 237 lakh tonne, the year 2013-14 will be a consecutive fourth year of surplus production for India. ISMA has estimated that the opening balance as on October 1, 2013 (for the new season 2013-14), will be around 80 lakh tonne, which is about 20 lakh tonne more than the normal opening balance.

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Delhi Kolhapur Sangli Solapur Total Stocks as on 13th Aug 449 5532 0 923 6904 Qty in Process 0 0 0 0 0

as on Aug 13, 2013 Stocks as on 12th Aug 449 5532 0 923 6904 NCDEX Sept contract Qty in Process 0 0 0 0 0

Technical Chart - Sugar

Global Sugar Updates

LIFFE as well settled 0.04% higher while ICE Sugar settled 0.35 higher on Thursday. Prices have consolidated at higher levels. Prices have gained over the last few days due to cold weather raising fears of frost in Brazil and Argentina Also, the USDA report reduced its forecast for domestic sugar production.. Brazil's main cane region produced 2.53 mn tn of sugar in the second half of July, up 5 percent from the 2.4 mn tn produced in the first half of the month. Prices, in the long term have declined on account of abundant supplies from Brazil. According to UNICA, Brazilian mills have produced 88.95 lakh tn of sugar from the start of the cane season on April 1 through June, up 33 percent from 66.9 lakh tn a year ago.
Source: Telequote

Outlook
Sugar Futures are expected to continue to trade on a mixed note. Prices may gain supported by festive demand coupled with higher duties and food ministrys proposal to allow higher prices for PDS. However, ample supplies and expectations of improvement in the cane output may cap upside and pressurize prices at higher levels.

Technical Outlook
Contract Sugar Sept NCDEX Futures Unit `/qtl

valid for Aug 16, 2013 Support 2999-3004 Resistance 3018-3027

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Commodities Daily Report

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Friday| 16 Aug, 2013
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Agricultural Commodities
Kapas
NCDEX Kapas as well as MCX Cotton Futures traded on a bullish note as the government has allowed the Cotton Corporation of India to export more cotton in the current season coupled with bullish international prices and a weak and settled 2.41% and 3.21% higher on Thursday. However, higher sowing and above average rains so far in the country have capped sharp gains. Ministry of Agriculture, in its fourth Advance estimates of Food grain production wherein it pegged Cotton output at 34 million bales (1 bale= 170 kg) in 2012-13, lower than the record 35.2 million bales in the previous year. With the cotton season nearing its end, arrivals have declined considerably. According to CCI, Cotton arrivals since the beginning of the th season (Oct 2012- Sep 2013) till 14 July is reported at 331.15, down 1.48 percent compared to same period last year.

Market Highlights
Unit `20 kgs `/Bale USc/Lbs Last 1043 21890 91.64 95.95

as on Aug 14, 2013 % Change Prev. day WoW 2.41 4.82 3.21 6.78 0.21 2.53 -0.47 2.68 MoM YoY 4.82 #N/A 12.08 22.70 7.37 26.03 3.79 16.51
Source: Reuters

NCDEX Kapas Apr Fut MCX Cotton July Fut ICE Cotton Oct 13 Cot look A Index

Cotton Spread Matrix

Closing 31-Oct-13 29-Nov-13 31-Dec-13 21890 20880 20780 31-Oct-13 0 -

as on Aug 14, 2013 29-Nov-13 31-Dec-13 -1010 0 -1110 -100 0

Sowing Progress
Cotton sowing is nearing its end and almost 90% of sowing is completed till last week. As per the ministry of agriculture, cotton sowing was done nd on 108.52 la ha on 2 Aug 2013 as against 144.87 la ha last year. In Gujarat, cotton was sown on 26.13 la ha as on 29 July 2013 as against 21.92 la ha during the same period last year. In Rajasthan, it was done on th 2.94 la ha as on 30 July 2013 as against 4.47 la ha last year. In AP, st cotton sowing was undertaken on 18.65 la ha as on 31 July 2013 as against 18.14 la ha last year.
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Cotton Stock Position at MCX Warehouse

Location Aurangabad Yavatmal Rajkot Kadi Sendhwa Warangal Total Stocks as on 13th Aug 4600 200 76300 9700 0 0 90800

as on Aug 13, 2013

Stocks as on 12th Aug 4600 200 76300 9700 0 0 90800 NCDEX April contract

Domestic Production and Consumption

Cotton Advisory Board (CAB) in its latest meet dated 17 April 2013 has projected cotton crop at 34 mn bales for 2012-13 season compared to the previous estimates of 33 mn bales. Mill consumption is expected to go up from 22.3 mn bales last year to 23.5 mn bales. Exports are estimated at 8.1 mn bales while imports are estimated 2.5 mn bales. However, Cotton Association of Indias estimates differ from that of the CAB which pegs cotton output for 201213 at 35.2 mn bales as on May 31 down 6% compared with 37.3 mn bales in 2011-12.
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Technical Chart - Kapas

Global Cotton Updates

ICE cotton corrected from higher levels on account of profit taking and settled 0.47% lower Thursday. Prices have gained as the USDA monthly report lowered US cotton output forecast to 13.05 million bales, the lowest in four years. The USDA weekly crop progress report rated good/excellent condition at 43% against 45% last week and reduced the poor/very poor at 25% against 21% last week. ICAC has increased projections for global production and endings stocks for the 2013/14 crop year. As per USDA acreage report, the estimate for U.S. cotton planted acreage is down 17% from 2012, but is up from March 2013 estimates.

Technical Chart - Cotton

MCX Oct contract

Outlook
Cotton prices are expected to continue to trade on a positive note on account of permission of additional exports coupled with domestic demand. Also, positive international markets may support prices. However, higher sowing as well as a good monsoon may cap sharp gains.

Technical Outlook
Contract Kapas NCDEX April 14 Fut Cotton MCX Oct Futures Unit `/20 kgs `/bale

valid for Aug 16, 2013 Support 1006-1025 21550-21730 Resistance 1055-1067 22050-22200
Source: Telequote

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Commodities Daily Report

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Friday| 16 Aug, 2013
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Agricultural Commodities
Guar Complex
After some short coverings in the preceding session, Guar resumed its southward journey. Guar seed October Futures settled 1.2% lower while guar gum futures settled 1.94% lower on Wednesday. Prices have fallen sharply due to expectations of bumper production due to higher area under cultivation and conducive weather. According to sources, carry forward stocks are higher and in such a situation farmers are increasing acreage in Rajasthan. The country's top guar seed-producing Rajasthan state has received more rainfall than normal since the beginning of monsoon season on June 1, boosting the sowing. Overall trend in guar, since the relaunch of the futures contract, remained bearish. Higher production last year and comparatively lower exports have resulted into higher supplies this year. With early and above normal monsoon so far, prospects for next years crop are also strong.

Market Highlights
Unit Guar Seed SpotNCDEX Guar Seed- NCDEX Oct 13 Fut Guar Gum SpotNCDEX Guar Gum- NCDEX Oct 13 Fut `/qtl 4120 `/qtl 14503 `/qtl 11630 `/qtl -1.94 1.44 -1.20 Last Prev day 5203 0.83

as on Aug 14, 2013 % change WoW 4.43 0.73 6.41 1.75 MoM -28.95 -43.87 -29.96 -44.51 YoY #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A

Source: Reuters

NCDEX Guarseed Spread Matrix

Spot 18-Oct-13 20-Nov-13 20-Dec-13 Closing 5202.95 4120 4060 4060 18-Oct-13 -1082.95 0 20-Nov-13 -1142.95 -60 0 -

as on Aug 14, 2013 20-Dec-13 -1142.95 -60 0 0 as on Aug 14, 2013 20-Nov-13 -2953.15 -80 0 20-Dec-13 -2853.15 20 100 0 as on Aug 13, 2013 Stocks as on 12th Aug 50 102 20 Qty in Process 0 0 0

Monsoon and Sowing

During the last week, rains increased its intensity over areas growing soybean, groundnut and cotton while they eased in the northwest and the northeast regions. However, cumulative rainfall continues to remain above average. According to Rajasthan Farm Department, Guarseed acreage as on 22 July, 2013 stood at 12.77 lakh hectares compared with 10.15 lakh hectares sown during the same period last year. Guarseed area increased significantly last year. With favorable monsoon and with attractive returns, acreage may remain higher in the coming season too.
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NCDEX Guar gum Spread Matrix

Spot 18-Oct-13 20-Nov-13 20-Dec-13 Closing 14503.15 11630 11550 11650 18-Oct-13 -2873.15 0 -

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Deesa Bikaner Sriganganagar Stocks as on 13th Aug 50 92 20 Qty in Process 0 0 0

Production and Exports

According to Rajasthan Farm Departments third advance estimates, Guarseed production stood at 20.23 lakh tonnes in 2012-13. Although production is higher compared to the previous year, but still it is much below the initial expectations on account of erratic monsoon last year. In the coming season, higher sowing along with timely rains may boost guar production across India. However, if rains turn truant in the major guar growing areas, then this may adversely impact output. Exports which touched record 7.07 lakh tonnes in the FY 2011-12, declined in the FY 2012-13 as US, the largest importer of Guar gum has stocked huge inventories. During the FY 2012-13, guar gum exports stood at 4.58 lakh tonnes during April 2012-February 2013. US has stocked

Technical Chart - Guar Seed

NCDEX October contract

Outlook
Guar seed and guar gum futures are expected to continue to decline and trade on a negative note as overall trend remains bearish due to higher sowing. If the current pace of rains continues and sowing increase significantly, we may see further downside over the short term. However, farmers may hold back their stocks expecting better realization in the coming days.

Technical Chart - Guar Gum

NCDEX October contract

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Contract Guar Seed Oct (NCDEX) Guar Seed Oct (MCX) Guar Gum Oct (NCDEX) Guar Gum Oct (MCX) Unit `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl

valid for Aug 16, 2013 Support 3990-4050 3990-4050 11330-11480 11250-11400 Resistance 4180-4250 4180-4250 11780-11920 11700-11860

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