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A STUDY ON THE ANALYSIS OF VOLATILITY OF REALTY SECTOR SCRIPS INCLUDED IN SENSEX

By Your Name (REG NO. ----------------)

A PROJECT REPORT Submitted to the FACULTY OF MANAGEMENT STUDIES in partial fulfillment for the award of the degree of MASTER OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION IN FINANCE

COLLEGE NAME UNIVERSITY NAME CITY PONCODE MONTHYEAR

BONAFIDE CERTIFICATE

This is to certify that the project report entitled A study on the analysis Volatility of Reality sector Scrips included in the Sensex is a bonafide work done by Mr. YOUR NAME (Reg. No. -----------) and a student of M.B.A in COLLEGE NAME

FACULTY GUIDE

HEAD OF THE DEPARTMENT

Assessed by

INTERNAL EXAMINER

EXTERNAL EXAMINER

ABSTRACT

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

TABLE OF CONTENTS Chapt e No. 1

Page No. Introduction 1.1. Research Background 1.2. Identified Problem 1.3. Need for the Study 1.4. Objective of Study 1.5. Scope of Study 1.6. Deliverables Literature Survey 2.1 Review of Literature 2.2 Research Gap Methodology 3.1 Type of project 3.2 Target respondents 3.3 Assumptions, Limitations and constraints 3.4 Sampling Methods 3.5. Data Analysis 3.6. Tools for Analysis Data Analysis and Interpretation Analysis and Interpretation Results of the Study 5.1 Summary of findings 5.2 Suggestion and Recommendations 5.3 Conclusions Appendix References 7 8 8 9 9 9 11-15 16 19 19 20 20 21 22 23-46 48-50 51 52 53-52 63

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CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION

INTRODUCTION

1.1 RESEARCH BACKGROUND DESCRIPTION OF REALTY INDUSTRY

Volatility is a measure of a security's stability. It is calculated as the standard deviation from a certain continuously compounded return over a given period of time. It is an important measure in quantifying risk; for example, a security with a volatility of 50% is considered very high risk because it has the potential to increase or decrease up to half its value. Volatility in investing is a stock's ability to change. Stocks with high volatility are those that can easily change in price (greatly and quickly), meaning that they are easily affected. Securities with lower volatility are more resistant to change, and they tend to have a stable course. With great potential for return, volatile stock is also accompanied by much risk. Generally, securities that trade with volatility often fluctuate greatly over short periods of time, as it takes very little to affect the prices of these shares. When the price jumps up and down, shortterm trading opportunities that allow investors to buy during dips and sell when price bounces up arise.

Volatility may influence the type of investments one makes: one may directly invest in non-volatile securities, such as a certificate of deposit, but highly volatile securities lend themselves more to short selling and other forms of hedging. The volatility of a stock relative to the overall market is known as its beta, and the volatility triggered by internal factors, regardless of the market, is known as a stock's alpha.

Bombay Stock Exchange abbreviated as BSE is the oldest stock exchange in Asia. It is the first stock exchange in India and second stock exchange all over the world to obtain an ISO 9001:2000 certifications. There are total of 22 stock exchanges in India. Among all the 22 stock exchanges BSE is the first one to be recognized and had the authority of getting permanent recognition. It was established in 1875.It is the largest stock exchange with over 6000 stocks listed. Bombay Stock Exchange Limited is located at Dalal Street, Mumbai, India.

1.2 IDENTIFIED PROBLEM

When the stock markets had touched the 20,000 levels in January 2008, it was the realty sector, which led the rally and at that time, almost all the stocks, from all the groups, went top gainers every day. And then the markets fell and along with the index, the realty stocks fell like nine pins. The same realty stocks, which led the index some time ago, were now amongst the top losers. This rise and fall of the realty stocks, along with the rise and fall of the index made it very interesting. We wanted to learn why the realty stocks had so much hold over the markets and thus decided to do an in-depth analysis of the frontline listed stocks in Indian realty sector and which would help us to understand the volatility of the Realty sector and its significant growth which helps to ascertain the future trends in the BSE Sensex.

1.3 NEED FOR THE STUDY

SENSEX is regarded to be the pulse of the Indian stock market. As the oldest index in the country, the SENSEX has over the years become one of the most prominent brands in the country. The need of the study is to know about the volatile movements of the realty scrips included in SENSEX. The study tries to analyze the systematic risk using beta. It also attempts to find out the systematic risk, the market return and security returns. The study also forecasts the return of the realty scrips and also shows the correlation between the SENSEX and Realty scrips
1.4OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

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PRIMARY OBJECTIVE:

To study the volatility of realty sector top 10 scrips included in SENSEX

SECONDARY OBJECTIVES:

To calculate the return on the select scrips for the study period. To analyse the risk using beta. To forecast the return in the realty scrips. To find out the correlation between BSE SENSEXand the select realty scrips.

1.5 SCOPE OF THE STUDY

This study helps us to understand the volatility of the Realty sector and its significant growth which helps to ascertain the future trends in the BSE Sensex. Recently the Reserve Bank of India has reduced the interest rate for housing loans. This study is conducted with the price volatility in Real estate sector during the period of 14 month. A review and assessment of the current condition and future prospects of a given sector of the economy. Sector analysis serves to provide an investor with an idea of how well a given group of companies are expected to perform as a whole.
1.6 DELIVERABLES

This study will help to understand the volatility of the Realty sector and its significant growth which helps to ascertain the future trends in the BSE Sensex .

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CHAPTER 2 LITERERATURE SURVEY

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2.1 REVIEW OF LITERATURE

A review and assessment of the current condition and future prospects of a given sector of the economy. Sector analysis serves to provide an investor with an idea of how well a given group of companies are expected to perform as a whole.

Grewal S.S and NavjotGrewall (1984) revealed some basic investment rules and rules for selling shares. They warned the investors not to buy unlisted shares, as Stock Exchanges do not permit trading in unlisted shares. Another rule that they specify is not to buy inactive shares, ie, shares in which transactions take place rarely. The main reason why shares are inactive is because there are no buyers for them. They are mostly shares of companies, which are not doing well. A third rule according to them is not to buy shares in closely-held companies because these shares tend to be less active than those of widely held ones since they have a fewer number of shareholders. They caution not to hold the shares for a long period, expecting a high price, but to sell whenever one earns a reasonable reward.

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Jack Clark Francis (1986) revealed the importance of the rate of return in investments and reviewed the possibility of default and bankruptcy risk. He opined that in an uncertain world, investors cannot predict exactly what rate of return an investment will yield. However he suggested that the investors can formulate a probability distribution of the possible rates of return. He also opined that an investor who purchases corporate securities must face the possibility of default and bankruptcy by the issuer. Financial analysts can foresee bankruptcy. He disclosed some easily observable warnings of a firm's failure, which could be noticed by the investors to avoid such a risk.

PreethiSingh(1986) disclosed the basic rules for selecting the company to invest in. She opined that understanding and measuring return m d risk is fundamental to the investment process. According to her, most investors are 'risk averse'. To have a higher return the investor has to face greater risks. She

concludes that risk is fundamental to the process of investment. Every investor should have an understanding of the various pitfalls of investments. The investor should carefully analyze the financial statements with special reference to solvency, profitability, EPS, and efficiency of the company.

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David.L.Scott and William Edward (1990) reviewed the important risks of owning common stocks and the ways to minimize these risks. They commented that the severity of financial risk depends on how heavily a business relies on debt. Financial risk is relatively easy to minimize if an investor sticks to the common stocks of companies that employ small amounts of debt. They suggested that a relatively easy way to ensure some degree of liquidity is to restrict investment in stocks having a history of adequate trading volume. Investors concerned about business risk can reduce it by selecting common stocks of firms that are diversified in several unrelated industries.

Lewis Mandell (1992) reviewed the nature of market risk, which according to him is very much 'global'. He revealed that certain risks that are so global that they affect the entire investment market. Even the stocks and bonds of the wellmanaged companies face market risk. He concluded that market risk is influenced by factors that cannot be predicted accurately like economic conditions, political events, mass psychological factors, etc. Market risk is the systemic risk that affects all securities simultaneously and it cannot be reduced through diversification.

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Nabhi Kumar Jain (1992) specified certain tips for buying shares for holding and also for selling shares. He advised the investors to buy shares of a growing company of a growing industry. Buy shares by diversifying in a number of growth companies operating in a different but equally fast growing sector of the economy. He suggested selling the shares the moment company has or almost reached the peak of its growth. Also, sell the shares the moment you realise you have made a mistake in the initial selection of the shares. The only option to decide when to buy and sell high priced shares is to identify the individual merit or demerit of each of the shares in the portfolio and arrive at a decision.

Carter Randal (1992) offered to investors the underlying principles of winning on the stock market. He emphasized on long-term vision and a plan to reach the goals. He advised the investors that to be successful, they should never be pessimists. He revealed that though there has been a major economic crisis almost every year, it remains true that patient investors have consistently made money in the equities market. He concluded that investing in the stock market should be an un-emotional endeavor and suggested that investors should own a stock if they believe it would perform well.

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L.C. Gupta (1992) revealed the findings of his study that there is existence of wild speculation in the Indian stock market. The over speculative character of the Indian stock market is reflected in extremely high concentration of the market activity in a handful of shares to the neglect of the remaining shares and absolutely high trading velocities of the speculative counters. He opined that, short- term speculation, if excessive, could lead to "artificial price". An artificial price is one which is not justified by prospective earnings, dividends, financial strength and assets or which is brought about by speculators through rumors, manipulations, etc. He concluded that such artificial prices are bound to crash sometime or other as history has repeated and proved.

Yasaswy N.J. (1993) disclosed how 'turnaround stocks' offer big profits to bold investors and also the risks involved in investing in such stocks. Turnaround stocks are stocks with extraordinary potential and are relatively under priced at a given point of time. He also revealed that when the economy is in recession and the fundamentals are weak, the stock market, being a barometer of the economy, also tends to be depressed. A depressed stock market is an ideal hunting ground for 'bargain hunters', who are aggressive investors. Sooner or later recovery takes place which may take a very long time. He concluded that the investors' watch work is 'caution' as he may lose if the turnaround strategy does not work out as anticipated.

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Sunil Damodaro (1993) evaluated the 'Derivatives' especially the 'futures' as a tool for short-term risk control. He opined that derivatives have become an indispensable tool for finance managers whose prime objective is to manage or reduce the risk inherent in their portfolios.

Charles Schwab(2000) revealed very practical, authoritative and easy-to-follow tips and Suggestions for good investment in the stock market. According to him growth is the heart of successful l investment. He suggested that before investing, one should be clear about the goal.. He opined that the biggest risk is not in investing but in doing nothing and watching inflation eating away the savings. Avery useful suggestion of the author is not to draw upon the income from investment but to reinvest it. A low risk approach will yield low return. So the author urged the investor to be aggressive, subject to his personal limits.

CRISIL Report on Risk Management (2000) stated that the loss potential from market risk will increase in the absence of strong risk management tools. The banks which adopt a pro-active approach to upgrading risk management skills which are currently unsophisticated as compared to internationally best practices, would have a competitive edge in future. The report commented that in the increasingly deregulated and competitive environment, the risk management strategies of banks would hold the key to differentiation in their credit worthiness.

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Raghavan R.S.(2000) reviewed the need for a riskmanagement system, which should be a daily practice in banks. Heopined that bank management should take upon in serious terms, risk management systems, which should be a daily practice in theiroperations. He is very much sure that the task is of very highmagnitude, the commitment to the exercise should be visible, failure may be suicidal as we are exposed to market risks at internationallevel, which is not under our control as it was in the insulated economytill sometime back.

Suresh.G.Lalwani and RavindraGersappa (2000)emphasised the need for a greater consciousness of the risks attachedto a fixed income securities portfolio, as the market in a situation ofcrunch can suddenly turn illiquid. Some concrete steps to put in placea mechanism to evaluate and seek to control the market risk would benecessary. They opined that the pursuit of profits often leads to adegree of recklessness that conveniently disregards the direct correlation between risk and profits. They concluded that a riskmanagement mechanism could be looked as a tool to instil discipline inany trading activity. It is a surveillance tool for constant monitoring ofthe market prices so as to forewarn against the unacceptable levels of risk on positions maintained.

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The Economic Times Investors' year Book (2000-01) commented on the "Paperless World and described what makesdematerialisation the preferred choice and how it reduces risk. The dematerialised trading was introduced in India in 1996 to reduce painsand risks in settlement through the loss of share certificates in transit,bad deliveries, delays in transfer and forged/fake/stolen certificates. Ithelps in doing away with the risk of loss in transit by directly creditingthe account with bonus shares and rights. There is no risk of baddelivery because the ownership status is clearly captured in theDepository's computers.

Report by the I.E.S (The Investigation Enforcement andSurveillance) Department of the SEBI (2000) states that in spite of someinstances of high volatility, the Indian markets have remained stableand safe. It is observed that the Indian securities market has beenwitnessing a downtrend and instances of volatility. But the downtrendand the fall in the Sensex are in consonance with the fall in the indicesof the major capital markets around the world. According to theReport, the downtrend in the Sensex could be attributed to1. Rise in the oil prices in the global markets leading to increase in oilpool deficit. 2. Downward pressure on the Indian Rupee. 3. Fears of economic slowdown as indicated by the key economyindicators. 4. Revival of competitive economies such as Malaysia and possibilityof shifting some foreign investments to these countries etc.The report concluded that the risk containment measuresalong with the proactive measures taken by the SEBI from time to timehas ensured that the level of safety remained adequate and there wereno constraints on the settlement process.

2.2 REASEARCH GAP

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From the review of literature it is obvious that emotions rulethe market, but whether emotional buying and selling are influencedby factors like experience in the stock market operations remains to beanswered. Though it is generally accepted that fund is diverted fromthe stock market to other avenues of investment, studies are to beconducted to reveal whether funds are diverted or not and the reasonsfor diverting the funds and whether funds are diverted both from theprimary market and secondary market etc. The effect of volatility ondiversion of funds is also to be enquired into.

Investors select a particular type of share like growth share,income share etc. according to their preferences, but the questionwhether experience in stock market operations has any influence on the type of share they select is to be explored.

The review of literature has brought to light that there existswild speculation in Indian stock markets. But whether speculationleads to diverting funds from the stock market or not raises a bigquestion mark.

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The review of literature reveals that recently no study hasbeen undertaken in Kerala on risk management in investment incorporate securities. Scholars have contributed much to the theoriesrelated to risks like risk return relationship, expected value, risk anduncertainty, attitude towards risk, EVA (Economic Value Added) etc.But there is lack of studies on the objectives behind investment incorporate securities, the types of shares that the investors like to invest in, the precautions they take against risks, how they manage a crisiswhile operating in securities market, the gender differences inhandling risks, etc.

There are theories like the Fundamental analysis, Technicalanalysis etc. to evaluate the securities. To what extent these theoriesare applied is another question to be resolved.

Keeping in mind, these unresolved, inadequately explainedand insufficiently explored issues, the present study has beenundertaken.

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CHAPTER 3 METHODOLOGY

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3.1TYPE OF PROJECT

A Study of the analysis of volatility of Realty Sector scrips included in the SENSEX. Research is basically of two types
Exploratory Research

It seeks to discover new relationships. They are drawn from ideas developed in the previous research studies are drawn from theory.
Descriptive Research

It helps executives to choose among the various course of action. A descriptive study attempts to obtain a complete and accurate description of a situation.
RESEARCH DESIGN:

Research design Definition as A research design is the arrangement of condition for collection and analyses of data in a manner that aims to combine relevant to research purpose with economic in procedure. The research design followed for this study is Analytical research design. This type of research uses information which is already available for analyzing the collected data.

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3.2 TARGET RESPONDENTS

Since this project used is mainly secondary in nature, as the facts are collected from the already published data. Such as websites, newspaper and company annual report.
3.3ASSUMPTIONS, CONSTRAINTS AND LIMITATIONS

This study is focused only on Real estate sector companies. Due to time constraints the figure available only for the 14 months. Since the analysis has been constructed on the basis of data available, the inherent limitations of index report are the limitations of the analysis. The data is limited to the constraints of Sensex market only. The protection made for future is not stable relatively it will change accordingly. Findings of the study are based on the historical data. Hence the accuracy cant be ascertained. The Study is restricted to investors based in Chennai.

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3.4SAMPLING METHODS

3.4.1 Population Size

For the study 10 Realty Sector companies have been selected. All the companies are the majorplayers in the economy and are part of Sensex.

3.4.2 Sample Technique

The current study requires no sampling techniques. All the 10 Realty Sector companies in theBombay Stock Exchange Sensex which appear from Jan 2011 to June 2012 are selected.
3.4.3 Sample description List of 10 Companies in Sensex from Reality sector Code 515055 533160 532868 532873 532799 532832 533273 532780 533274 532784 Name Anant Raj industries DB Reality DLF HDIL (Housing Development and Infrastructure Ltd ) Hub Town Indiabulls Real Estate Oberoi Reality Parsvnath Developers Prestige Estate Projects Sobha Developer Sector Reality Reality Reality Reality Reality Reality Reality Reality Reality Reality

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3.5DATA PROCESSING Secondary data:

Secondary data is information that already exists somewhere, having been collected for specific purpose in the study. Secondary data can be collected from various books, websites and from company brochures. For the purpose of this study, the data used is mainly

secondary in nature, as the facts are collected from the already published data. Such as websites, newspaper and company annual report.

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3.6TOOLS FOR ANALYSIS Financial tools: 1. Return analysis: Security return = This months closing price Last months closing price * 100 Last months closing price

Market return =

This months closing index price Last months closing index price * 100

Last months closing index price

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2. Beta analysis: = nxy-(x)(y) n (x^2)-(y^2)

3. Alpha analysis:

=yx

4. Co-efficient correlation:
r= nxy-(x)(y)

n x2-(yx)2

ny2-(y)2

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CHAPTER 4
DATA ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION

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DATA ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION

RETURN ANALYSIS

CALCULATION OF MARKET AND SECURITY RETURN

Security Return =

Todays Price Yesterdays Price Yesterdays Price

*100

Market Return

Todays Index Yesterdays Index *100 Yesterdays Index

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4.1.1 RETURNS ON BSE SENSEX VERSUS RETURN ON ANANT RAJ INDUSTRIES BSE SENSEX Rs. 17,236.18 17,429.98 16,218.53 17,318.81 17,404.20 17,752.68 17,193.55 15,454.92 16,123.46 17,705.01 16,453.76 16,676.75 18,197.20 18,845.87 18,503.28 19,135.96 19,445.22 17,823.40 18,327.76 20,509.09 19,521.25 20,032.34 20,069.12 17,971.12 17,868.29 ANANTRAJ SCRIP Rs. 47.45 48.00 46.05 58.00 58.50 65.75 60.85 39.75 45.10 53.95 57.85 65.10 81.65 63.50 68.50 88.20 83.30 75.45 100.70 107.30 111.65 129.85 140.45 126.9 119.7 X Rs. (1.1119) 7.4695 (6.3531) (0.4906) (1.9630) 3.2520 11.2497 (4.1464) (8.9328) 7.6046 (1.3371) (8.3554) (3.4420) 1.8515 (3.3062) (1.5904) 9.0994 (2.7519) (10.6359) 5.0603 (2.5513) (0.1833) 11.6743 0.5755 Y Rs. (1.1458) 4.2345 (20.6034) (0.8547) (11.0266) 8.0526 53.0818 (11.8625) (16.4041) (6.7416) (11.1367) (20.2694) 28.5827 (7.2993) (22.3356) 5.8824 10.4042 (25.0745) (6.1510) (3.8961) (14.0162) (7.5472) 10.6777 6.0150

MONTH April -13 March13 Feb - 13 Jan -13 Dec -12 Nov-12 Oct-12 Sept -12 Aug-12 July-12 June 12 May 12 April -12 March12 Feb - 12 Jan -12 Dec -11 Nov-11 Oct-11 Sept -11 Aug-11 Julyt-11 June 11 May 11

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0 MONTH 13-Apr 13-Mar 13-Feb 13-Jan 12-Dec 12-Nov 12-Oct 12-Sep 12-Aug 12-Jul June 12 May 12 12-Apr 12-Mar 12-Feb 12-Jan 11-Dec 11-Nov 11-Oct 11-Sep 11-Aug Julyt-11 June 11 May 11 0 20 40 Series2 60 Series1 80 Series3 100 120 140 160

4.1.1 RETURNS ON BSE SENSEX VERSUS RETURN ON ANANT RAJ SCRIP

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Interpretation: From the above chart, it is seen that market returns has been highest in the month of September 2010, 11.6743 and the lowest return during the month of January 2011, -10.6359. The security returns has the highest returns of 53.0818 during the month of January 2012 and the lowest returns of -25.0745 during the month of February 2011.The security return has shown an upward movement from December 2011 to February 2012

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4.1.2 RETURNS ON BSE SENSEX VERSUS RETURN ON DB REALITY BSE SENSEX Rs. 17,236.18 17,429.98 16,218.53 17,318.81 17,404.20 17,752.68 17,193.55 15,454.92 16,123.46 17,705.01 16,453.76 16,676.75 18,197.20 18,845.87 18,503.28 19,135.96 19,445.22 17,823.40 18,327.76 20,509.09 19,521.25 20,032.34 20,069.12 17,971.12 17,868.29 DB Reality Rs. 78.15 81 87.8 73.7 85.2 81.35 62 49.45 72.05 72.15 49.6 60 78.2 70.1 77.05 97.05 118.45 109.65 152 195.6 207.9 418.8 405.75 429 425.15 X Rs. (1.1119) 7.4695 (6.3531) (0.4906) (1.9630) 3.2520 11.2497 (4.1464) (8.9328) 7.6046 (1.3371) (8.3554) (3.4420) 1.8515 (3.3062) (1.5904) 9.0994 (2.7519) (10.6359) 5.0603 (2.5513) (0.1833) 11.6743 0.5755 Y Rs. (3.5185) (7.7449) 19.1316 (13.4977) 4.7326 31.2097 25.3792 (31.3671) (0.1386) 45.4637 (17.3333) (23.2737) 11.5549 (9.0201) (20.6079) (18.0667) 8.0255 (27.8618) (22.2904) (5.9163) (50.3582) 3.2163 (5.4196) 0.9056

MONTH May-13 Apl-13 Mar-13 Feb-13 Jan-13 Dec-12 Nov-12 Oct-12 Sep-12 Aug-12 July-12 June-12 May-12 Apl-12 Mar-12 Feb-12 Jan-12 Dec-11 Nov-11 Oct-11 Sep-11 Aug-11 July-11 June-11 May-11

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0 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 Series1 Series3 Series2

MONTH

4.1.2 RETURNS ON BSE SENSEX VERSUS RETURN ON DB REALITY SCRIP

13-May Apl-13 13-Mar 13-Feb 13-Jan 12-Dec 12-Nov 12-Oct 12-Sep 12-Aug 12-Jul 12-Jun 12-May Apl-12 12-Mar 12-Feb 12-Jan 11-Dec 11-Nov 11-Oct 11-Sep 11-Aug 11-Jul 11-Jun 11-May

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Interpretation: From the above chart, it is seen that market returns has been highest in the month of September 2010, 11.6743 and the lowest return during the month of January 2011, -10.6359. The security returns has the highest returns of 45.4637 during the month of October 2011 and the lowest returns of -50.3582 during the month of November 2010.The security return has shown an upward movement from August 2011 to October 2011.

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4.1.3 RETURNS ON BSE SENSEX VERSUS RETURN ON DLF SCRIPS

MONTH May-13 Apl-13 Mar-13 Feb-13 Jan-13 Dec-12 Nov-12 Oct-12 Sep-12 Aug-12 Jul-12 June-12 May-12 Apl-12 Mar-12 Feb-12 Jan-12 Dec-11 Nov-11 Oct-11 Sep-11 Aug-11 July-11 June-11 May-11

BSE SENSEX Rs. 17,236.18 17,429.98 16,218.53 17,318.81 17,404.20 17,752.68 17,193.55 15,454.92 16,123.46 17,705.01 16,453.76 16,676.75 18,197.20 18,845.87 18,503.28 19,135.96 19,445.22 17,823.40 18,327.76 20,509.09 19,521.25 20,032.34 20,069.12 17,971.12 17,868.29

DLF SCRIP Rs. 208.30 198.40 184.80 186.90 201.50 226.35 215.90 183.05 207.10 242.05 218.65 196.35 230.90 210.55 238.55 222.90 267.20 212.05 223.90 291.95 307.25 350.10 377.30 301.75 301.30

X Rs. (1.1119) 7.4695 (6.3531) (0.4906) (1.9630) 3.2520 11.2497 (4.1464) (8.9328) 7.6046 (1.3371) (8.3554) (3.4420) 1.8515 (3.3062) (1.5904) 9.0994 (2.7519) (10.6359) 5.0603 (2.5513) (0.1833) 11.6743 0.5755

Y Rs. 4.9899 7.3593 (1.1236) (7.2457) (10.9786) 4.8402 17.9459 (11.6127) (14.4392) 10.7020 11.3573 (14.9632) 9.6652 (11.7376) 7.0211 (16.5793) 26.0080 (5.2925) (23.3088) (4.9797) (12.2394) (7.2091) 25.0373 0.1494

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4.1.3 RETURNS ON BSE SENSEX VERSUS RETURN ON DLF SCRIPS

25,000.00

400 350

20,000.00 300 15,000.00 250 200 10,000.00 150 100 5,000.00 50 0.00 0 BSE SENSEX Rs. DLF SCRIP Rs.

Interpretation: From the above chart, it is seen that market returns has been highest in the month of September 2010, 11.6743 and the lowest return during the month of January 2011,-10.6359. The security returns has the highest returns of 26.0080 during the month of March 2011 and the lowest returns of -23.3088 during the month of January 2011.The security return has shown an upward movement from January 2011 to March 2011.

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4.1.4 RETURNS ON BSE SENSEX VERSUS RETURN ON HDIL SCRIP MONTH May-13 Apl-13 Mar-13 Feb-13 Jan13 Dec-13 Nov-12 Oct-12 Sep12 Aug-12 Jul-12 Jun-12 May-12 Apl-12 Mar-12 Feb-12 Jan-12 Dec-11 Nov-11 Oct-11 Sep-11 Aug-11 Jul-11 Jun-11 May-11 BSE SENSEX Rs. 17,236.18 17,429.98 16,218.53 17,318.81 17,404.20 17,752.68 17,193.55 15,454.92 16,123.46 17,705.01 16,453.76 16,676.75 18,197.20 18,845.87 18,503.28 19,135.96 19,445.22 17,823.40 18,327.76 20,509.09 19,521.25 20,032.34 20,069.12 17,971.12 17,868.29 HDIL Rs. 79.20 86.95 67.40 80.60 85.45 114.35 79.55 53.30 60.60 99.80 98.00 102.35 142.50 159.70 167.95 161.05 175.65 158.00 131.50 194.25 189.20 247.25 259.10 252.20 266.30 X Rs. (1.1119) 7.4695 (6.3531) (0.4906) (1.9630) 3.2520 11.2497 (4.1464) (8.9328) 7.6046 (1.3371) (8.3554) (3.4420) 1.8515 (3.3062) (1.5904) 9.0994 (2.7519) (10.6359) 5.0603 (2.5513) (0.1833) 11.6743 0.5755 Y Rs. (8.9132) 29.0059 (16.3772) (5.6758) (25.2733) 43.7461 49.2495 (12.0462) (39.2786) 1.8367 (4.2501) (28.1754) (10.7702) (4.9122) 4.2844 (8.3120) 11.1709 20.1521 (32.3037) 2.6691 (23.4783) (4.5735) 2.7359 (5.2948)

(1

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4.1.4 .RETURNS ON BSE SENSEX VERSUS RETURN ON HDIL SCRIP

MONTH

13-May Apl-13 13-Mar 13-Feb Jan-13 13-Dec 12-Nov 12-Oct Sep-12 12-Aug 12-Jul 12-Jun 12-May Apl-12 12-Mar 12-Feb 12-Jan 11-Dec 11-Nov 11-Oct 11-Sep 11-Aug 11-Jul 11-Jun 11-May

40

41

Interpretation: From the above chart, it is seen that market returns has been highest in the month of September 2010, 11.6743 and the lowest return during the month of January 2011, -10.6359. The security returns has the highest returns of 49.2495 during the month of January 2012 and the lowest returns of -39.2786 during the month of November 2011.The security return has shown an upward movement from November 2011 to January 2012.

42

4.1.5 RETURNS ON BSE SENSEX VERSUS RETURN ON HUB TOWN

MONTH May-13 Apl-13 Mar-13 Feb-13 Jan-13 Dec-12 Nov-12 Oct-12 Sep-12 Aug-12 Jul-12 Jun-12 May-12 Apl-12 Mar-12 Feb-12 Jan-12 Dec-11 Nov-11 Oct-11 Sep-11 Aug-11 Jul-11 Jun-11 May-11

BSE SENSEX Rs. 17,236.18 17,429.98 16,218.53 17,318.81 17,404.20 17,752.68 17,193.55 15,454.92 16,123.46 17,705.01 16,453.76 16,676.75 18,197.20 18,845.87 18,503.28 19,135.96 19,445.22 17,823.40 18,327.76 20,509.09 19,521.25 20,032.34 20,069.12 17,971.12 17,868.29

Hub Town Rs. 175.80 181.00 181.00 180.30 183.35 206.55 216.15 179.05 182.10 195.30 190.00 198.60 180.85 194.45 205.05 210.95 224.95 206.40 218.70 251.95 360.10 473.80 507.60 519.60 496.95

X Rs. (1.1119) 7.4695 (6.3531) (0.4906) (1.9630) 3.2520 11.2497 (4.1464) (8.9328) 7.6046 (1.3371) (8.3554) (3.4420) 1.8515 (3.3062) (1.5904) 9.0994 (2.7519) (10.6359) 5.0603 (2.5513) (0.1833) 11.6743 0.5755

Y Rs. (2.8729) 0.0000 0.3882 (1.6635) (11.2321) (4.4414) 20.7205 (1.6749) (6.7588) 2.7895 (4.3303) 9.8148 (6.9941) (5.1695) (2.7969) (6.2236) 8.9874 (5.6241) (13.1971) (30.0333) (23.9975) (6.6588) (2.3095) 4.5578

43

4.1.5 RETURNS ON BSE SENSEX VERSUS RETURN ON HUB TOWN

25,000.00

600

20,000.00

500

400 15,000.00 300 10,000.00 200 BSE SENSEX Rs. Hub Town Rs.

5,000.00

100

0.00

44

Interpretation: From the above chart, it is seen that market returns has been highest in the month of September 2010, 11.6743 and the lowest return during the month of January 2011, -10.6359. The security returns has the highest returns of 20.7205 during the month of January 2012 and the lowest returns of -30.0333 during the month of December 2010.The security return has shown an upward movement from November 2011 to January 2012.

45

4.1.6 RETURNS ON BSE SENSEX VERSUS RETURN ON INDIAN BULLS

MONTH May-13 Apl-13 Mar-13 Feb-13 Jan-13 Dec-12 Nov-12 Oct-12 Sep-12 Aug-12 Jul-12 Jun-12 May-12 Apl-12 Mar-12 Feb-12 Jan-12 Dec-11 Nov-11 Oct-11 Sep-11 Aug-11 Jul-11 Jun-11 May-11

BSE SENSEX Rs. 17,236.18 17,429.98 16,218.53 17,318.81 17,404.20 17,752.68 17,193.55 15,454.92 16,123.46 17,705.01 16,453.76 16,676.75 18,197.20 18,845.87 18,503.28 19,135.96 19,445.22 17,823.40 18,327.76 20,509.09 19,521.25 20,032.34 20,069.12 17,971.12 17,868.29

INDIAN BULLS Rs. 55.80 61.15 53.20 63.10 63.80 74.45 71.05 46.75 61.10 74.90 73.10 84.50 99.60 112.25 117.35 125.00 124.45 104.00 120.65 139.55 153.65 191.65 171.15 167.95 163.45

X Rs. (1.1119) 7.4695 (6.3531) (0.4906) (1.9630) 3.2520 11.2497 (4.1464) (8.9328) 7.6046 (1.3371) (8.3554) (3.4420) 1.8515 (3.3062) (1.5904) 9.0994 (2.7519) (10.6359) 5.0603 (2.5513) (0.1833) 11.6743 0.5755

Y Rs. (8.7490) 14.9436 (15.6894) (1.0972) (14.3049) 4.7854 51.9786 (23.4861) (18.4246) 2.4624 (13.4911) (15.1606) (11.2695) (4.3460) (6.1200) 0.4419 19.6635 (13.8002) (13.5435) (9.1767) (19.8278) 11.9778 1.9053 2.7531

46

4.1.6 RETURNS ON BSE SENSEX VERSUS RETURN ON INDIAN BULLS

25,000.00

250

20,000.00

200

15,000.00

150

10,000.00

100

BSE SENSEX Rs. INDIAN BULLS Rs.

5,000.00

50

0.00

47

Interpretation: From the above chart, it is seen that market returns has been highest in the month of September 2010, 11.6743 and the lowest return during the month of January 2011, -10.6359. The security returns has the highest returns of 51.9786 during the month of January 2012 and the lowest returns of -23.4861 during the month of December 2011.The security return has shown an upward movement from a December 2011 to January 2012.

48

4.1.7 RETURNS ON BSE SENSEX VERSUS RETURN ON SOBHA DEVELOPER

MONTH May-13 Apl-13 Mar-13 Feb-13 Jan-13 Dec-12 Nov-12 Oct-12 Sep-12 Aug-12 July-12 Jun-12 May-12 Apl-12 Mar-12 Feb-12 Jan-12 Dec-11 Nov-11 Oct-11 Sep-11 Aug-11 Jul-11 Jun-11 May-11

BSE SENSEX Rs. 17,236.18 17,429.98 16,218.53 17,318.81 17,404.20 17,752.68 17,193.55 15,454.92 16,123.46 17,705.01 16,453.76 16,676.75 18,197.20 18,845.87 18,503.28 19,135.96 19,445.22 17,823.40 18,327.76 20,509.09 19,521.25 20,032.34 20,069.12 17,971.12 17,868.29

Sobha Developer Rs. 348.75 339.85 299 329.8 330.5 283.75 261.65 191.7 235.15 253.55 216.9 223 259.75 258.75 270.5 286.1 294.5 249.95 260.85 324.6 325.45 359.7 381.25 328.8 334.35

X Rs. (1.1119) 7.4695 (6.3531) (0.4906) (1.9630) 3.2520 11.2497 (4.1464) (8.9328) 7.6046 (1.3371) (8.3554) (3.4420) 1.8515 (3.3062) (1.5904) 9.0994 (2.7519) (10.6359) 5.0603 (2.5513) (0.1833) 11.6743 0.5755

Y Rs. 2.6188 13.6622 (9.3390) (0.2118) 16.4758 8.4464 36.4893 (18.4776) (7.2570) 16.8972 (2.7354) (14.1482) 0.3865 (4.3438) (5.4526) (2.8523) 17.8236 (4.1786) (19.6396) (0.2612) (9.5218) (5.6525) 15.9519 (1.6599)

49

4.1.6.RETURNS ON BSE SENSEX VERSUS RETURN ON SOBHA DEVELOPER SCRIP

25,000.00

450

400 20,000.00

350

300 15,000.00 250 BSE SENSEX Rs. 200 10,000.00 150 Sobha Developer Rs.

5,000.00

100

50

0.00

50

Interpretation: From the above chart, it is seen that market returns has been highest in the month of September 2010, 11.6743 and the lowest return during the month of January 2011, -10.6359. The security returns has the highest returns of 36.4893 during the month of January 2012 and the lowest returns of -19.6396 during the month of January 2011.The security return has shown an upward movement from December 2011 to January 2012.

51

4.1.8 RETURNS ON BSE SENSEX VERSUS RETURN ON PARSVANT DEVELOPERS

MONT H May-13 Apl-13 Mar-13 Feb-13 Jan-13 Dec-12 Nov-12 Oct-12 Sep-12 Aug-12 July-12 Jun-12 May-12 Apl-12 Mar-12 Feb-12 Jan-12 Dec-11 Nov-11 Oct-11 Sep-11 Aug-11 Jul-11 Jun-11 May-11

BSE SENSEX Rs. 17,236.18 17,429.98 16,218.53 17,318.81 17,404.20 17,752.68 17,193.55 15,454.92 16,123.46 17,705.01 16,453.76 16,676.75 18,197.20 18,845.87 18,503.28 19,135.96 19,445.22 17,823.40 18,327.76 20,509.09 19,521.25 20,032.34 20,069.12 17,971.12 17,868.29

Parsvant Rs. 39.05 61.45 53.35 56.8 56.55 59.3 59.05 43.65 36.35 80 64.8 50 46.55 47.45 42.15 43.55 45.6 29.5 46.85 57.95 58.35 66.5 73.4 67.73 65.00

X Rs. (1.1119) 7.4695 (6.3531) (0.4906) (1.9630) 3.2520 11.2497 (4.1464) (8.9328) 7.6046 (1.3371) (8.3554) (3.4420) 1.8515 (3.3062) (1.5904) 9.0994 (2.7519) (10.6359) 5.0603 (2.5513) (0.1833) 11.6743 0.5755

Y Rs. (36.4524) 15.1828 (6.0739) 0.4421 (4.6374) 0.4234 35.2806 20.0825 (54.5625) 23.4568 29.6000 7.4114 (1.8967) 12.5741 (3.2147) (4.4956) 54.5763 (37.0331) (19.1544) (0.6855) (12.2556) (9.4005) 8.3715 4.2000

52

4.1.8 .RETURNS ON BSE SENSEX VERSUS RETURN ON PARSVANT SCRIP

25,000.00

90 80

20,000.00

70 60

15,000.00 50 40 10,000.00 30 20 10 0.00 0 BSE SENSEX Rs. Parsvant Rs.

5,000.00

53

Interpretation: From the above chart, it is seen that market returns has been highest in the month of September 2010, 11.6743 and the lowest return during the month of January 2011, -10.6359. The security returns has the highest returns of 54.5763 during the month of March 2011 and the lowest returns of -54.5625 during the month of November 2011.The security return has shown an upward movement from February 2011 to March 2011.

54

4.1.9 RETURNS ON BSE SENSEX VERSUS RETURN ON PRESTIGE ESTATE

MONTH May-13 Apl-13 Mar-13 Feb-13 Jan-13 Dec-12 Nov-12 Oct-12 Sep-12 Aug-12 Jul-12 Jun-12 May-12 Apl-12 Mar-12 Feb-12 Jan-12 Dec-11 Nov-11 Oct-11 Sep-11 Aug-11 July-11 Jun-11 May-11

BSE SENSEX Rs. 17,236.18 17,429.98 16,218.53 17,318.81 17,404.20 17,752.68 17,193.55 15,454.92 16,123.46 17,705.01 16,453.76 16,676.75 18,197.20 18,845.87 18,503.28 19,135.96 19,445.22 17,823.40 18,327.76 20,509.09 19,521.25 20,032.34 20,069.12 17,971.12 17,868.29

Prestige Estate Rs. 111.85 117.00 115.35 110.20 99.85 104.00 75.95 70.75 80.95 99.15 91.65 98.50 131.25 120.45 148.80 145.60 125.00 116.20 149.40 170.35 168.45 198.30 180.35 173.45 179.45

X Rs. (1.1119) 7.4695 (6.3531) (0.4906) (1.9630) 3.2520 11.2497 (4.1464) (8.9328) 7.6046 (1.3371) (8.3554) (3.4420) 1.8515 (3.3062) (1.5904) 9.0994 (2.7519) (10.6359) 5.0603 (2.5513) (0.1833) 11.6743 0.5755

Y Rs. (4.4017) 1.4304 4.6733 10.3655 (3.9904) 36.9322 7.3498 (12.6004) (18.3560) 8.1833 (6.9543) (24.9524) 8.9664 (19.0524) 2.1978 16.4800 7.5731 (22.2222) (12.2982) 1.1279 (15.0530) 9.9529 3.9781 (3.3435)

55

4.1.9.RETURNS ON BSE SENSEX VERSUS RETURN ON PRESTIGE ESTATE SCRIP

25,000.00

250

20,000.00

200

15,000.00

150 BSE SENSEX Rs.

10,000.00

100

Prestige Estate Rs.

5,000.00

50

0.00

Interpretation: From the above chart, it is seen that market returns has been highest in the month of September 2010, 11.6743 and the lowest return during the month of January 2011, 10.6359. The security returns has the highest returns of 36.9322 during the month of February 2012 and the lowest returns of -24.9524 during the month of August 2011.The security return has shown an upward movement from December 2011 to February 2012.

56

4.1.10 RETURNS ON BSE SENSEX VERSUS RETURN ON OBEROI REALITY BSE SENSEX Rs. 17,236.18 17,429.98 16,218.53 17,318.81 17,404.20 17,752.68 17,193.55 15,454.92 16,123.46 17,705.01 16,453.76 16,676.75 18,197.20 18,845.87 18,503.28 19,135.96 19,445.22 17,823.40 18,327.76 20,509.09 19,521.25 20,032.34 20,069.12 17,971.12 17,868.29 Oberoi Reality Rs. 230.55 242.75 257.25 270.15 268.55 283.90 250.60 208.50 220.10 233.40 229.45 225.00 235.90 240.20 225.00 253.05 251.80 218.25 245.80 256.35 269.05 277.15 263.35 267.05 261.15 X Rs. (1.1119) 7.4695 (6.3531) (0.4906) (1.9630) 3.2520 11.2497 (4.1464) (8.9328) 7.6046 (1.3371) (8.3554) (3.4420) 1.8515 (3.3062) (1.5904) 9.0994 (2.7519) (10.6359) 5.0603 (2.5513) (0.1833) 11.6743 0.5755 Y Rs. (5.0257) (5.6365) (4.7751) 0.5958 (5.4068) 13.2881 20.1918 (5.2703) (5.6984) 1.7215 1.9778 (4.6206) (1.7902) 6.7556 (11.0848) 0.4964 15.3723 (11.2083) (4.1155) (4.7203) (2.9226) 5.2402 (1.3855) 2.2592

MONTH May-13 Apl-13 Mar-13 Feb-13 Jan-13 Dec-12 Nov-12 Oct-12 Sep-12 Aug-12 July-12 Jun-12 May-12 Apl-12 Mar-12 Feb-12 Jan-12 Dec-11 Nov-11 Oct-11 Sep-11 Aug-11 July-11 June-11 May-11

57

4.1.10 RETURNS ON BSE SENSEX VERSUS RETURN ON OBEROI REALITY

20,000.00

250

200 15,000.00 150 10,000.00 100 BSE SENSEX Rs. Oberoi Reality Rs.

5,000.00

50

0.00

58

Interpretation: From the above chart, it is seen that market returns has been highest in the month of September 2010, 11.6743 and the lowest return during the month of January 2011, -10.6359. The security returns has the highest returns of 20.1918 during the month of January 2012 and the lowest returns of 11.2083 during the month of February 2011.The security return has shown an upward movement from November 2011 to January 2012.

59

CALCULATION OF BETA STANDARD INTERPRETATION:

Beta is the slope of the characteristics regression line. Beta describes the relationship between the stocks return and the index returns.

1) If Beta = +1.0 One per cent change in Market index causes exactly one per cent change in the stock return. It indicates that the stock moves in tandem with the market. 2) If Beta = + 0.5 One per cent changes in Market index causes 0.5 per cent change in the stock return. The stock is volatile compared to the market.

3) If Beta = + 2.0 One per cent change in Market index causes two per cent change in the stock return. The stock return is more volatile. The stock with more than one Beta value is considered to be risky.

60

4) Negative Beta value indicates that the stock return moves in the opposite direction to the market return. The stock with the negative Beta of -1 would provide a return of 10%. if the market return declines by 10% vice versa.

BETA FORMULA =

nxy-(x)(y) ________________________________ n (x^2)-(y^2)

CALCULATION OF ALPHA The intercept of the characteristic regression line is Alpha. i.e the distance between the intersection and the horizontal axis. It indicates that the stock return is independent of the market return;positive value of alpha is a healthy sign. Positive alpha value would yield profitable return.

Formula = y x

61

CALCULATION OF CORRELATION It measures the nature and the extent of relationship between the stock market return and the stock return in a particular period.

nxy-(x) ( y) r
= 2 nx^2 (x)

ny^2 (y)2

62

4.1.11 TABLE SHOWING ALPHA,BETA & CORRELATION OF REALTY SECTOR SCRIPS COMPANY NAME Anant Raj industies DB Reality DLF HDIL Hub Town Indiabulls Real Estate Sobha Developer Parsvnath Developers Prestige Estate Projects Oberoi Reality ALPHA -2.52 -4.49 -0.74 -2.77 -3.71 -3.29 0.91 0.84 -1.03 -0.26 BETA 1.69 1.58 1.63 2.61 0.48 1.98 1.80 2.38 1.08 0.73 CORRELATION 0.60 0.45 0.76 0.73 0.29 0.75 0.84 0.62 0.47 0.58

63

INTERPRETATION

1. From the table it is inferred that the alpha value for Sobha Developer and Prasvnathis positive, thus the above stocks shows a healthy sign and these stocks will yield a profitable return. The Alpha value for Anant Raj Industries, DB Reality,DLF, HDIL, Hub Town, India bulls, Prestige Estate ProjectsandOberoi realty is negative which means that these stocks will not yield a profitable value. 2. The Beta should fall between 0 and 1 for the risk less investment. Here from the above table, it is clear that the Hub Town and Oberoi Realty is having Beta less than one which indicates lessrisky investment.From the table it is inferred that the beta value for Anant Raj Industries, DLF, HDIL, India bulls, Parsvnath, DB realty, Sobha developer and Prestige estate is more than 1, thus the above stocks are considered to be very risky 3. The correlation coefficient measures the nature and the extend of relationship between the market return and the stock return for the study period. From the above table it is inferred that the coefficient of determination is above 60 percentage which shows the variation of the security return with the market return for 8 out of 10 Realty scrips.

64

CHAPTER 5 CONCLUSIONS

5.1 SUMMARY OF FINDINGS

65

ANANT RAJ INDUSTRIES: The market returns has been highest in the month of September 2010, 11.6743 and the lowest return during the month of January 2011, -10.6359. The security returns has the highest returns of 53.0818 during the month of January 2012 and the lowest returns of 25.0745 during the month of February 2011. It has a Alpha of -2.52, Beta of 1.69 and correlation of coefficient of .60. Since the Alpha is negative the stocks will not yield profitable value. Beta of 1.69 is greater than the market return and it is proved that company has a high volatility compared to the market return. DB REALTY: The market returns has been highest in the month of September 2010, 11.6743 and the lowest return during the month of January 2011, -10.6359. The security returns has the highest returns of 45.4637 during the month of October 2011 and the lowest returns of 50.3582 during the month of November 2010. It has a Alpha of -4.49, Beta of 1.58 and correlation of coefficient of .45. Since the Alpha is negative the stocks will not yield profitable value. Beta of 1.58 is greater than the market return and it is proved that company has a high volatility compared to the market return.

66

DLF:The market returns has been highest in the month of September 2010, 11.6743 and the lowest return during the month of January 2011, 10.6359. The security returns has the highest returns of 26.0080 during the month of March 2011 and the lowest returns of -23.3088 during the month of January 2011. It has a Alpha of -0.74, Beta of 1.63 and correlation of coefficient of .76. Since the Alpha is negative the stocks will not yield profitable value. Beta of 1.63 is greater than the market return and it is proved that company has a high volatility compared to the market return.

HDIL :The market returns has been highest in the month of September 2010, 11.6743 and the lowest return during the month of January 2011, 10.6359. The security returns has the highest returns of 49.2495 during the month of January 2012 and the lowest returns of -39.2786 during the month of November 2011. It has a Alpha of -2.77, Beta of 2.61 and correlation of coefficient of .73. Since the Alpha is negative the stocks will not yield profitable value. Beta of 2.61 is greater than the market return and it is proved that company has a high volatility compared to the market return.

67

HUB TOWN:The market returns has been highest in the month of September 2010, 11.6743 and the lowest return during the month of January 2011, -10.6359. The security returns has the highest returns of 20.7205 during the month of January 2012 and the lowest returns of 30.0333 during the month of December 2010.The security return has shown an upward movement from November 2011 to January 2012. It has a Alpha of -3.71, Beta of 0.48 and correlation of coefficient of .29. Since the Alpha is negative the stocks will not yield profitable value. Beta of 0.48 is lesser than the market return and it is proved that company is lessvolatility compared to the market return.

INDIA BULLS:The market returns has been highest in the month of September 2010, 11.6743 and the lowest return during the month of January 2011, -10.6359. The security returns has the highest returns of 51.9786 during the month of January 2012 and the lowest returns of 23.4861 during the month of December 2011. It has a Alpha of -3.29, Beta of 1.98 and correlation of coefficient of 0.75. Since the Alpha is negative the stocks will not yield profitable value. Beta of 1.98 is greater than the market return and it is proved that company has high volatility compared to the market return.

68

SOBHA DEVELOPER: The market returns has been highest in the month of September 2010, 11.6743 and the lowest return during the month of January 2011, -10.6359. The security returns has the highest returns of 36.4893 during the month of January 2012 and the lowest returns of 19.6396 during the month of January 2011. It has a Alpha of 0.91, Beta of 1.80 and correlation of coefficient of 0.84. Since the Alpha is Positive the stocks will yield profitable value. Beta of 1.80 is greater than the market return and it is proved that company has high volatility compared to the market return. PARSVANT DEVELOPER:The market returns has been highest in the month of September 2010, 11.6743 and the lowest return during the month of January 2011, -10.6359. The security returns has the highest

returns of 54.5763 during the month of March 2011 and the lowest returns of -54.5625 during the month of November 2011. It has a Alpha of 0.84, Beta of 2.38 and correlation of coefficient of 0.62. Since the Alpha is Positive the stocks will yield profitable value. Beta of 2.38 is greater than the market return and it is proved that company has highly volatility compared to the market return

69

PRESTIGE ESTATE:The market returns has been highest in the month of September 2010, 11.6743 and the lowest return during the month of January 2011, -10.6359. The security returns has the highest returns of 36.9322 during the month of February 2012 and the lowest returns of 24.9524 during the month of August 2011. It has a Alpha of-1.03, Beta of 1.08 and correlation of coefficient of 0.47. Since the Alpha is negative the stocks will not yield profitable value. Beta of 1.08 is greater than the market return and it is proved that company has high volatility compared to the market return.

OBEROI REALTY:The market returns has been highest in the month of September 2010, 11.6743 and the lowest return during the month of January 2011, -10.6359. The security returns has the highest returns of 20.1918 during the month of January 2012 and the lowest returns of 11.2083 during the month of February 2011. It has a Alpha of-.26 , Beta of 0.73 and correlation of coefficient of 0.58. Since the Alpha is negative the stocks will not yield profitable value. Beta of 0.73 is lesser than the market return and it is proved that company has less volatility compared to the market return.

70

5.2. SUGGESTIONS After this study, I would like to give following recommendations, which can help to the investors. When there is volatility in the stock market there will be a high volatility in the Indian stock market, thus suggesting the investors to read the market carefully before investing. It is found that the fall or rise of points on the Real estate sector companies will create an impact in the BSE market which is the cause for the volatility. Thus suggesting the investors to analyze the real estate sectors before investing.

Through the investors view this analysis will help to understand about the particular sector in BSE index which will help to invest in the selected sectors.

Depend upon the sector performance an investors can anticipates the share price changes and can invest accordingly. Sell the securities if the investors have stocks and to buy there if the investor have cash. The golden principle in the market is Buy when everyone else sells and sells when everyone else buys. Because if there are more seller than buyer of stocks then the supply of stocks is greater than the demand for stock thus stock price will fall down. Then investor buy stock in this situation, the

71

demand for their stock will rise if the demand of the shares increase automatically price of thesecurities will be increased. It follows the law of demand and supply. While playing with stocks investor must be in safer side that means investors do not invest in securities by taking loans, credit, etc. from bank, friends, relativesetc. Some of best advices to lower the risk are mentioned below:Do not put more then 10% of your money into any one stock. Buy stock with consistent and predictable earnings growth. Use stop-loss order to limit your risk.
5.3 CONCLUSION

India has been witness to years of up and down cycle in the stock market. Since 1992, the Indian markets have peaked every fourth year and then dropped 35-45% during the next three years. Some of the major conclusions derived in the study are as under. News related to any economic and technological factor affair has also the direct effect on stock market. Any fluctuation in foreign market has more effect on Indian stock market than that of domestic market. In the given volatile economic conditions, the market is efficient to any news and information. Any fluctuation in the real estate sector majorly effects of Indian stock market

72

In short, the following hypothesis have been tested and proved, that the foreign market creates a great impact in the Indian stock market. Thus the investors are advised to read the market conditions and the economic conditions before they invest in the market. They are also advised to check the Real estate sectors before they invest in the market.

In the analysis and data interpretation part we have seen that price movements ofthe stock over a time frame. From this we find that stock market price alwaysfluctuate because of many influencing factors like political, economic,corporate news etc. over a short term.

Over a short term stock market will always remain volatile; it is Investment thebetter option against Trading. One can find Investing over a long periodyields good return in stock market, rather than trading for short-term capitalgain. Trading may leads to capital loss. So invest wisely. Hope my projectguides investors in a proper way in stock market.

73

APPENDIX

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STOCK MARKET GENERATED DATA FOR THE PERIOD: JULY 2 010 TO JULY 2012 - ANANT RAJ INDUSTRIES CLOSE MONTH OPEN PRICE HIGH PRICE LOW PRICE PRICE May-13 48.50 58.75 47.00 47.45 Apl-13 46.15 52.50 43.65 48.00 Mar-13 58.25 58.25 45.80 46.05 Feb-13 62.00 62.00 54.00 58.00 Jan-13 65.05 66.00 55.20 58.50 Dec-12 61.25 79.95 60.25 65.75 Nov-12 39.05 63.55 37.20 60.85 Oct-12 46.10 51.95 35.30 39.75 Sep-12 53.85 58.95 42.60 45.10 Aug-12 56.00 57.65 48.70 53.95 Jul-12 65.85 69.80 56.50 57.85 Jun-12 83.00 84.70 51.00 65.10 May-12 64.60 90.30 62.00 81.65 Apl-12 68.80 75.55 54.80 63.50 Mar-12 91.50 91.50 60.70 68.50 Feb-12 83.75 96.50 83.70 88.20 Jan-12 76.75 89.50 73.70 83.30 Dec-11 101.45 104.50 66.15 75.45 Nov-11 108.15 112.90 94.00 100.70 Oct-11 110.00 125.50 100.15 107.30 Sep-11 131.70 144.00 101.10 111.65 Aug-11 141.15 160.00 127.25 129.85 Jul-11 128.00 145.90 127.05 140.45 Jun-11 121.50 144.70 115.25 126.90 May-11 116.70 125.00 115.00 119.70

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STOCK MARKET GENERATED DATA FOR THE PERIOD: JULY 2010 TO JULY 2012 - DB REALTY MONTH May-13 Apl-13 Mar-13 Feb-13 Jan-13 Dec-12 Nov-12 Oct-12 Sep-12 Aug-12 Jul-12 Jun-12 May-12 Apl-12 Mar-12 Feb-12 Jan-12 Dec-11 Nov-11 Oct-11 Sep-11 Aug-11 Jul-11 Jun-11 May-11 OPEN PRICE HIGH PRICE LOW PRICE 82.95 88 74.45 86.3 82.4 62.15 50.85 74 70.8 50.6 59.9 79.75 71 77 97.45 119.2 110.6 156 198.4 210 430 410.4 434.95 429.9 383 85.25 93.2 93.2 91.45 99.3 102.5 66.75 74.85 81 74.2 65 79.9 89.8 83.6 98.4 122.25 130 159.5 207.2 251.5 439.2 457 474.9 471.5 430 75 79.2 65.55 72.65 69.6 57.2 48.8 45.05 52.05 47.5 49.4 59.65 68.7 66.1 66 94.6 81.4 103.25 143.5 184 190.55 406.5 402.5 383 355 CLOSE PRICE 78.15 81 87.8 73.7 85.2 81.35 62 49.45 72.05 72.15 49.6 60 78.2 70.1 77.05 97.05 118.45 109.65 152 195.6 207.9 418.8 405.75 429 425.15

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STOCK MARKET GENERATED DATA FOR THE PERIOD: JULY 2010 TO JULY 2012 - DLF OPEN LOW CLOSE MONTH HIGH PRICE PRICE PRICE PRICE May-13 199 218.3 192.85 208.3 Apl-13 183 201.35 169.55 198.4 Mar-13 188 196.4 176.95 184.8 Feb-13 201 210.95 175.15 186.9 Jan-13 224.8 224.95 186.55 201.5 Dec-12 215 261.35 210 226.35 Nov-12 183.9 224.6 172.75 215.9 Oct-12 215 227.3 181.5 183.05 Sep-12 238.05 251.35 190.9 207.1 Aug-12 214.5 250 196.4 242.05 Jul-12 192 225.7 190.2 218.65 Jun-12 233.6 237.4 173.4 196.35 May-12 212.7 280.8 187.25 230.9 Apl-12 240.1 241 206.55 210.55 Mar-12 223.55 239.4 208.05 238.55 Feb-12 267 274.5 221.2 222.9 Jan-12 215 270 213.5 267.2 Dec-11 225.05 252.9 209 212.05 Nov-11 294.85 298.2 214.85 223.9 Oct-11 305 325 275 291.95 Sep-11 356 365.95 258.5 307.25 Aug-11 380 397.35 341.6 350.1 Jul-11 305 385 302.95 377.3 Jun-11 304.7 336.55 297.4 301.75 May11 285.1 331.9 277.9 301.3

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STOCK MARKET GENERATED DATA FOR THE PERIOD: JULY 2010 TO JULY 2012 - HDIL MONTH May-13 Apl-13 Mar-13 Feb-13 Jan-13 Dec-12 Nov-12 Oct-12 Sep-12 Aug-12 Jul-12 Jun-12 May-12 Apl-12 Mar-12 Feb-12 Jan-12 Dec-11 Nov-11 Oct-11 Sep-11 Aug-11 Jul-11 Jun-11 May-11 OPEN PRICE 87.75 67.2 81.9 85.5 113 79.5 53.75 62.9 99.5 97 101.55 147.9 160.9 168 162 176.85 159.05 131.75 196 188.95 250 262.65 253.5 271 247.5 HIGH PRICE 93.05 87.8 84.25 93.3 117.4 135.4 84.1 67 103.35 102 114.7 147.9 175.45 180.65 168.9 198.9 178.6 162.9 197.7 217 268 290.95 284.9 299.6 282 LOW PRICE 71 61.5 59.6 77.5 80.55 77.15 52.1 52.3 60.05 89.2 96.45 95 140.7 148.05 135.05 158.5 150.65 122.5 129 177.1 160.1 244.1 250.6 248.8 237 CLOSE PRICE 79.2 86.95 67.4 80.6 85.45 114.35 79.55 53.3 60.6 99.8 98 102.35 142.5 159.7 167.95 161.05 175.65 158 131.5 194.25 189.2 247.25 259.1 252.2 266.3

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STOCK MARKET GENERATED DATA FOR THE PERIOD: JULY 2010 TO JULY 2012 - HUB TOWN OPEN LOW CLOSE MONTH HIGH PRICE PRICE PRICE PRICE May-13 180 182.8 167 175.8 Apl-13 188.4 188.8 175.1 181 Mar-13 179.85 192.9 173.05 181 Feb-13 182 196 173.15 180.3 Jan-13 206 215 173.85 183.35 Dec-12 218.9 240 185.7 206.55 Nov-12 185.5 218 177 216.15 Oct-12 183 187.8 166.05 179.05 Sep-12 192.15 204.4 174.3 182.1 Aug-12 184 206.35 181 195.3 Jul-12 200 204.9 182 190 Jun-12 181.5 199.9 168 198.6 May-12 197.85 205.9 180.15 180.85 Apl-12 205 217.45 186.05 194.45 Mar-12 212 216.7 194.1 205.05 Feb-12 225 259 210.15 210.95 Jan-12 205.25 241 192.1 224.95 Dec-11 222 248 183.05 206.4 Nov-11 252 254.85 211 218.7 Oct-11 360 398.9 247 251.95 Sep-11 483.65 504 334 360.1 Aug-11 510 520 467.2 473.8 Jul-11 518 547 489 507.6 Jun-11 504.1 554.8 500 519.6 May-11 475.1 535 468.1 496.95

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STOCK MARKET GENERATED DATA FOR THE PERIOD: JULY 2010 TO JULY 2012 - INDIAN BULLS MONTH May -13 Apl-13 Mar-13 Feb-13 Jan-13 Dec-12 Nov-12 Oct-12 Sep-12 Aug-12 Jul-12 Jun-12 May-12 Apl-12 Mar-12 Feb-12 Jan-12 Dec-11 Nov-11 Oct-11 Sep-11 Aug-11 Jul-11 Jun-11 May-11 OPEN PRICE 61.80 53.25 63.00 63.90 75.00 71.00 47.20 64.00 73.05 72.00 84.00 101.00 113.50 118.00 130.00 124.05 104.95 121.60 139.00 153.00 199.90 173.00 169.50 165.20 156.25 HIGH PRICE LOW PRICE 65.75 61.55 63.80 68.55 76.10 83.90 72.85 66.85 79.05 77.80 91.75 102.50 125.00 120.40 130.00 152.75 126.50 123.70 140.55 162.70 218.50 215.00 187.05 200.80 174.50 52.70 49.50 48.35 59.20 58.70 66.95 45.50 40.10 59.25 66.80 71.55 70.75 98.80 97.80 105.00 123.10 100.20 99.25 114.80 122.00 118.15 172.50 169.00 164.60 153.00 CLOSE PRICE 55.80 61.15 53.20 63.10 63.80 74.45 71.05 46.75 61.10 74.90 73.10 84.50 99.60 112.25 117.35 125.00 124.45 104.00 120.65 139.55 153.65 191.65 171.15 167.95 163.45

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STOCK MARKET GENERATED DATA FOR THE PERIOD: JULY 2010 TO JULY 2012 - SOBHA DEVELOPER OPEN LOW MONTH HIGH PRICE CLOSE PRICE PRICE PRICE May-13 340 359 325.6 348.75 Apl-13 298 356.75 285.6 339.85 Mar-13 332.7 333 282.45 299 Feb-13 331.05 366.8 304.25 329.8 Jan-13 280 334.4 264.05 330.5 Dec-12 258.5 306 252.55 283.75 Nov-12 192 266.95 189 261.65 Oct-12 242.8 246 185.25 191.7 Sep-12 253.5 256.7 202.4 235.15 Aug-12 214.7 258.95 201.05 253.55 Jul-12 225.75 237.75 212 216.9 Jun-12 262.75 268.55 207.1 223 May-12 261.35 294.3 245.35 259.75 Apl-12 282.65 282.7 226 258.75 Mar-12 285 295.4 240.1 270.5 Feb-12 296 327 281.05 286.1 Jan-12 252 303.15 250 294.5 Dec-11 261 271 185 249.95 Nov-11 327.85 329.7 252 260.85 Oct-11 325 339.85 306 324.6 Sep-11 370.5 378 288.5 325.45 Aug-11 383.6 403.9 346.55 359.7 Jul-11 333.7 401.7 332.05 381.25 Jun-11 333.8 394 320.6 328.8 May-11 285.4 355 283.8 334.35

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STOCK MARKET GENERATED DATA FOR THE PERIOD: JULY 2010 TO JULY 2012 - PARSVNATH DEVELOPERS HIGH CLOSE MONTH OPEN PRICE LOW PRICE PRICE PRICE May-13 61.5 61.8 35.55 39.05 Apl-13 54.95 62.45 52.25 61.45 Mar-13 57.9 57.9 52.1 53.35 Feb-13 57.55 61 51.15 56.8 Jan-13 59.4 62.25 55.6 56.55 Dec-12 59.4 64.45 58.5 59.3 Nov-12 43.4 61.25 41.85 59.05 Oct-12 36.8 45.45 36.3 43.65 Sep-12 80 81.95 32.45 36.35 Aug-12 64.15 82.25 62.55 80 Jul-12 49.55 69 49.55 64.8 Jun-12 46.25 50.45 43 50 May-12 47.15 49.75 45.55 46.55 Apl-12 42.25 47.5 40.25 47.45 Mar-12 43.35 44.4 39.9 42.15 Feb-12 45.1 48.4 43 43.55 Jan-12 30 50.05 28 45.6 Dec-11 47.75 47.75 25.1 29.5 Nov-11 58.2 61.5 46 46.85 Oct-11 50 62.5 45 57.95 Sep-11 67 71.85 46.55 58.35 Aug-11 73.38 74.73 65.95 66.5 Jul-11 68.93 74.73 67.9 73.4 Jun-11 65.75 71.98 64.75 67.73 May-11 61.75 68.8 60.7 65

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STOCK MARKET GENERATED DATA FOR THE PERIOD: JULY 2010 TO JULY 2012 - PRESTIGE ESTATE MONTH May-13 Apl-13 Mar-13 Feb-13 Jan-13 Dec-12 Nov-12 Oct-12 Sep-12 Aug-12 Jul-12 Jun-12 May-12 Apl-12 Mar-12 Feb-12 Jan-12 Dec-11 Nov-11 Oct-11 Sep-11 Aug-11 Jul-11 Jun-11 May-11 OPEN PRICE 116.85 117 103.1 101 104 77.4 72.5 82 101.4 90.1 99 133 121.7 148.9 149 134.75 117 150.1 176 174.65 200.1 190 176 174.65 200.1 HIGH PRICE 124.95 124.65 122.2 130.25 114.85 122 82.4 83 102.8 117 100.5 136.45 143 154.1 158.5 164.85 147 153 190 199.95 232 209 190 199.95 232 LOW PRICE 96.25 109 101 99.55 95 72.65 67.65 57.55 78.5 85.25 85 94 118.05 119.25 130.7 122.4 104 112.8 135 140.05 149 188.15 135 140.05 149 CLOSE PRICE 111.85 117 115.35 110.2 99.85 104 75.95 70.75 80.95 99.15 91.65 98.5 131.25 120.45 148.8 145.6 125 116.2 149.4 170.35 168.45 198.3 180.35 173.45 179.45

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STOCK MARKET GENERATED DATA FOR THE PERIOD: JULY 2010 TO JULY 2012 - OBEROI REALTY HIGH MONTH OPEN PRICE LOW PRICE CLOSE PRICE PRICE May-13 244.5 247 226 230.55 Apl-13 258.1 271.8 236.2 242.75 Mar-13 271.95 271.95 228 257.25 Feb-13 270 284.5 263 270.15 Jan-13 279.85 286 250 268.55 Dec-12 241 322.9 241 283.9 Nov-12 213 263.4 205.05 250.6 Oct-12 223 234.95 205.1 208.5 Sep-12 233 235 214.05 220.1 Aug-12 234.75 244.85 221 233.4 Jul-12 232.95 232.95 212.25 229.45 Jun-12 240 242 210 225 May-12 240.5 247.9 230.35 235.9 Apl-12 225.15 257.25 220 240.2 Mar-12 250.2 259.9 216.05 225 Feb-12 250 273 246 253.05 Jan-12 219 254.9 210 251.8 Dec-11 245.4 267.05 212.05 218.25 Nov-11 259.9 263 240.15 245.8 Oct-11 268 278.5 240 256.35 Sep-11 281.4 294.5 240 269.05 Aug-11 280 306.6 269.8 277.15 Jul-11 245.4 267.05 243.76 263.35 Jun-11 259.9 263 253.15 267.05 May-11 268 278.5 253 261.15

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REFERENCES
REFERENCES 1. Punithavathipandian Security Analysis and Portfolio

Management Vikas Publishing House Pvt. Ltd. 2001 2. C.R Kothari- Research Methodology Wishvaprakashan, New Delhi 2002.

WEBLIOGRAPHY 1. www.bseindia.com 2. www.moneycontrol.com 3. www.sharekhan.com 4. Business line 5. Economic times.

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