Advantages and Disadvantages
7.1. Advantages of Expert Systems
Permanence - Expert systems do not forget, but human experts may
Reproducibility - Many copies of an expert system can be made, but training
new human experts is
time-consuming and expensive
If there is a maze of rules (e.g. tax and auditing), then the expert system can
unravel the maze
Efficiency - can increase throughput and decrease personnel costs. Although
expert systems are
expensive to build and maintain, they are inexpensive to operate . Development
and maintenance costs
can be spread over many users. The overall cost can be quite reasonable when
compared to expensive
and scarce human experts. Cost savings: Wages - (elimination of a room full of
clerks) Other costs (minimize loan loss)
Consistency - With expert systems similar transactions handled in the same
way. The system will
make comparable recommendations for like situations.
Humans are influenced by recency effects (most recent information having a
disproportionate impact
on judgment) primacy effects (early information dominates the judgment).
Documentation - An expert system can provide permanent documentation of
the decision process
Completeness - An expert system can review all the transactions, a human
expert can only review a
sample
Timeliness - Fraud and/or errors can be prevented. Information is available
sooner for decision making
Breadth - The knowledge of multiple human experts can be combined to give a
system more breadth
that a single person is likely to achieve
Reduce risk of doing business
Consistency of decision making
Documentation
Achieve Expertise
Entry barriers - Expert systems can help a firm create entry barriers for
potential competitors
Differentiation - In some cases, an expert system can differentiate a product or
can be related to the
focus of the firm.
Computer programs are best in those situations where there is a structure that
is noted as previously
existing or can be elicited
7.2. Disadvantages of Rule-Based Expert Systems
Common sense - In addition to a great deal of technical knowledge, human
experts have common
sense. It is not yet known how to give expert systems common sense.
Creativity - Human experts can respond creatively to unusual situations, expert
systems cannot.
Learning - Human experts automatically adapt to changing environments;
expert systems must be
explicitly updated. Case-based reasoning and neural networks are methods that
can incorporate
learning.
Sensory Experience - Human experts have available to them a wide range of
sensory experience; expert
systems are currently dependent on symbolic input.
Degradation - Expert systems are not good at recognizing when no answer
exists or when the problem
is outside their area of expertise.
8. Critcisms of Expert Systems
When the rule set for an expert system is written, the knowledge of humans are
observed. Video tapes,
interviews, protocol, and other techniques are used to try to capture the thought
process of experts. A
problem with expert systems is writing the rules themselves. Thought processes
that are highly ruleoriented are easier to write than ones that rely more on
creativity or intuition. Another problem is that often
experts themselves disagree. Different experts might take different courses of
action or go through different
thought processes when given the same problem to solve. Thus there is
disagreement in the professional
community about the validity of expert systems.
Expert systems are improving as technology advances. In the past, expert
systems have received criticism
and some negative publicity because of the failures that were highly publicized.
Unfortunately, the
successes are less publicized, because companies want to maintain their
competitive edge. Expert systems
are a great tool for companies especially, as depicted here, companies in
finance. It is important for
companies to remember, however, that humans should make the final decision,
and not the computer.
Humans still have the insight and intuition that computers are unable to
possess--for now, anyway.
THE KNOWLEDGE BASE (LONG TERM MEMORY)
The key bottleneck in developing an expert
system.
Contain everything necessary for understanding,
formulating and solving a problem.
It contains facts and heuristics.
The most popular approach to representing domain
knowledge is using production rules.
Rule 1
IF car won't start
THEN problem in electrical system
Rule 2
IF problem in electrical system
AND battery voltage is below 10 volts
THEN bad battery
