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Lifestatuses1 Fractional Age Assumptions

This document discusses methods for calculating life table values at fractional ages based on a life table with one source of decrement (deaths). It introduces the uniform distribution of deaths (UDD) assumption, which linearly interpolates between integer-aged life table functions. Under UDD, the probability of death from age x to x+s, where 0<s<1, is simply sqx. The force of mortality is shown to increase linearly from μ(x) to μ(x+1) over the interval. Graphs demonstrate the linear decrease in survivors and linear increase in force of mortality under the UDD approach.

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Amy Li
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418 views15 pages

Lifestatuses1 Fractional Age Assumptions

This document discusses methods for calculating life table values at fractional ages based on a life table with one source of decrement (deaths). It introduces the uniform distribution of deaths (UDD) assumption, which linearly interpolates between integer-aged life table functions. Under UDD, the probability of death from age x to x+s, where 0<s<1, is simply sqx. The force of mortality is shown to increase linearly from μ(x) to μ(x+1) over the interval. Graphs demonstrate the linear decrease in survivors and linear increase in force of mortality under the UDD approach.

Uploaded by

Amy Li
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
You are on page 1/ 15

Life tables with one source of decrement

Fractional ages

Actuarial mathematics
Simple life statuses and related concepts

Edward Furman
Department of Mathematics and Statistics
York University

September 29, 2010

Edward Furman

Actuarial mathematics MATH 3280

1 / 15

Life tables with one source of decrement


Fractional ages

Life table
Definition 1.1 (Life table.)
We shall call the distribution of (u) its life table.
Example 1.1
[x, x + t)
[0, 1)
[1, 2)
[2, 3)
[3, 4)
[4, 5)
...

lx
100, 000
98, 740
98, 648
98, 584
98, 535
...

qx
0.01260
0.00093
0.00065
0.00050
0.00040
...

dx
1, 260
92
64
49
40
...

Lx
98, 973
98, 694
98, 617
98, 560
98, 515
...

Tx
7, 387, 758
7, 288, 785
7, 190, 091
7, 091, 474
6, 992, 914
...

ex
73.88
73.82
72.89
71.93
70.97
...

Looks like we shall need more notations...


Edward Furman

Actuarial mathematics MATH 3280

2 / 15

Life tables with one source of decrement


Fractional ages

Definition 1.2 (Random number of survivors to age x.)


Let us have a group of l0 new born children. Then, for 1{j}
indicating the survival of the new born child number j to age x,
L(x) :=

l0
X

1{j}

j=1

denotes the number of children alive at age x. L(x) is an r.v.


Definition 1.3 (Expected number of survivors to age x.)
For x p0 = P[1{j} = 1] for every j = 1, . . . , l0 , the expectation of
L(x) is

l0
X
1{j} = l0 x p0 .
lx := E[L(x)] = E
j=1

(Think of the binomial r.v.)


Edward Furman

Actuarial mathematics MATH 3280

3 / 15

Life tables with one source of decrement


Fractional ages

Definition 1.4
Let n D(x) := L(x) L(x + n) denote the group of deaths
between ages x and x + n. We then define the expected
number of deaths (out of l0 and between the aforementioned
ages)
n dx

:= E[n D(x)] = l0 (x p0 x+n p0 ) = lx lx+n .

Proposition 1.1
We have that
(x) =

1 d
lx .

lx dx

Proof.
Noticing that x p0 = lx /l0 completes the proof.
Edward Furman

Actuarial mathematics MATH 3280

4 / 15

Life tables with one source of decrement


Fractional ages

At home.
Check that
lx+n
lx lx+n


 Z x+n
(s)ds ,
= lx exp
x
Z x+n
=
ls (s)ds.
x

Proposition 1.2
We have that the local extrema points of lx (x) correspond to
the points of inflection of lx .
Proof.
d
d 1 d
d2
lx (x) = lx
lx = 2 lx ,
dx
dx lx dx
dx
which completes the proof.
Edward Furman

Actuarial mathematics MATH 3280

5 / 15

Life tables with one source of decrement


Fractional ages

Figure: Plot of lx
Edward Furman

Actuarial mathematics MATH 3280

6 / 15

Life tables with one source of decrement


Fractional ages

Figure: Plot of lx (x )
Edward Furman

Actuarial mathematics MATH 3280

7 / 15

Life tables with one source of decrement


Fractional ages

Figure: Plot of (x )
Edward Furman

Actuarial mathematics MATH 3280

8 / 15

Life tables with one source of decrement


Fractional ages

Approximating life functions at fractional ages


Life table functions investigated hitherto specify the c.d.f.
of K (x) completely. To specify the c.d.f. of T (x) we must
postulate an analytic form or adopt an assumption in
addition to the life table functions we have had.
We shall further review three different assumptions for
fractional ages, given a fixed x = 0, 1, . . . and t (0, 1),
1

Linear interpolation or the uniform distribution of deaths


(UDD),
S(x + t) = (1 t)S(x ) + tS(x + 1).

Exponential interpolation or the constant force of mortality


(CFM),
log S(x + t) = (1 t) log S(x ) + t log S(x + 1).

Harmonic interpolation,
1/S(x + t) = (1 t)/S(x ) + t/S(x + 1).
Edward Furman

Actuarial mathematics MATH 3280

9 / 15

Life tables with one source of decrement


Fractional ages

Figure: Linear interpolation for lx+s , 0 < s < 1

Edward Furman

Actuarial mathematics MATH 3280

10 / 15

Life tables with one source of decrement


Fractional ages

The UDD
Linear approximation applied.
We find the value of lx+s , x = 0, 1, 2 . . . and s (0, 1) from the
following equations:
x +sx
lx lx+s
=
= s,
lx lx+1
x +1x
which yields
lx+s = lx slx + slx+1 .
Finally, we find that:
lx+s = (1 s)lx + slx+1 .

Edward Furman

Actuarial mathematics MATH 3280

11 / 15

Life tables with one source of decrement


Fractional ages

In terms of the number of deaths, we have that


lx+s = (1 s)lx + slx+1 = lx sdx ,
where dx = lx lx+1 .
The d.d.f.
Further, dividing by lx , we have that
s px

UDD

UDD

= 1 sqx s qx = sqx .

As qx is tabulated we can calculate s qx for any non-integer


duration s.
The p.d.f.
Also, we have that
fT (x) (s) =

d
UDD
s qx = qx , for 0 < s < 1.
ds

Edward Furman

Actuarial mathematics MATH 3280

12 / 15

Life tables with one source of decrement


Fractional ages

As fT (x) (s) is constant in s and equal to qx , deaths are said


to be uniformly distributed over the interval [x, x + 1).
We have seen that
(x) =

fT (x) (s)
f (x)
f (x)
and, similarly, (x + s) =
.
=
S(x)
x p0
s px

The force of mortality.


Then the force of mortality is
UDD

(x + s) =

qx
,
1 s qx

which increases in s.

Edward Furman

Actuarial mathematics MATH 3280

13 / 15

Life tables with one source of decrement


Fractional ages

Age is fractional as well.


If both the age and the duration are non-integer, i.e., we want to
calculate st qx+t , 0 < t < s < 1, then
s px

=t px st px+t

st px+t

s px
t px

Hence,
st qx+t

= 1 st px+t = 1

s px
t px

=1

1 s qx
,
1 t qx

which after applying the UDD assumption reduces to


st qx+t

UDD

= 1

1 s qx
(s t)qx
=
, for 0 < t < s < 1.
1 t qx
1 t qx

Edward Furman

Actuarial mathematics MATH 3280

14 / 15

Life tables with one source of decrement


Fractional ages

Graphically, the main ideas of UDD can be seen as

Figure: lx+s decreases linearly and x+s increases.

Edward Furman

Actuarial mathematics MATH 3280

15 / 15

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