Blain Kitchenware Venkat
Blain Kitchenware Venkat
STRUCTURE
Executive Summary:
Blaine Kitchenware, a medium sized producer of residential kitchenware and
appliances is trying to unleash the value inherent in its strong operational cash
flows and balance sheet to enhance value for majority shareholders. The company
though publicly traded is majorly owned by CEO Dubinski family members. Over the
past couple of years, the company has accumulated significant amount of cash
through operations. While the company dont foresee a significant amount of capital
expenditure as it has outsourced majority of manufacturing operations, it is
interested in pursuing inorganic growth activity through acquisition of other players
in the kitchenware space. From a growth perspective the company is trying to
expand its presence in beverage making appliances and overseas markets. While
the growth plans are on track, the company seems to not have found enough
lucrative opportunities, as it has been significantly increasing the dividend payout
ratio.
The companys $209 Million cash equivalents, zero debt and steady operational
cash flows makes it an ideal candidate for takeover candidate by private equity
firm. CEO Dubinski is worried about maintaining status quo and let someone
takeover Blaine. He is contemplating to emulate the same strategy in-house to
unleash value through recapitalization of Blaines balance sheet, but he is
concerned about the conservative nature of family members who are inherently
averse to debt. Dubinski is in dilemma as to what is the optimal amount of debt to
be taken, whether to go for a repurchase/special dividends. He is also worried about
the further consequences of this transaction on familys ownership, share price,
EPS, dividend payout, cost of capital and growth capital for future.
A detailed analysis of the companys current external, internal environment and
financial condition has led to the conclusion that repurchase of the shares with
existing cash, marketable securities and additional debt will enhance value for the
shareholders, increases the ownership of family and decreases the attractiveness of
Blaine to external investors.
Company analysis:
Blaine Kitchenware is a medium player in kitchen appliance industry with 10% of
market share. In recent years, the company made some very important steps to
reduce its production costs by shifting business model towards outsourcing along
with using Mexico manufacturing opportunities. These changes allowed the
company to sustain price pressure and utilize NAFTA advantages. However, Blaine
hasnt achieved the level of economies of scale as its competitors and hence the
company has shunned away from cost leadership generic strategy and focused on
high-end product lines, niche segments using focused differentiation strategy. The
companys revenue mix is concentrated with more than 85% coming from mid-tier
products, similarly 65% of its sales are from US alone. Recent acquisitions have
helped the company to grow, diversify these revenue streams and were aimed at
different niche markets where the biggest gain in the future margins were believed
Industry Analysis:
To understand business risks that exist in the industry, Porters five forces
framework has been used.
Threat of new entrants - High: Since Blaine presented its first cream
separator in 1927, kitchen appliances progressed from state-of-the-art
product to a commodity stage. Most functions are similar between producers.
There are little to no difference in design. Because of pre-maturity industry
stage, companies, chasing cost reduction, changed business model from full
cycle of design and production to outsourcing in countries with cheap labor
cost. This shift allowed new players to enter the industry relatively easily.
There are no heavy initial investments in production and distribution needed,
and, if things wont go well, liquidation costs are fairly small. Moreover,
processes of design and production of kitchen appliances are well learned
and there is no any patents protection left. Along with customers little brand
Based on the analysis, we can conclude that small kitchen appliances industry is not
attractive. Very high level of competition, high bargain power of buyers, and
substantial threat of new entrants along with possible threats of substitutes from
restaurant industry can negatively influence the future of company. Low suppliers
power helps the industry players be more flexible in their production and fixed-cost
decisions. Furthermore, slow growth and consolidation trend are forcing companies
to cut price and erode margins.
Since the industry leader, Auto Tech Appliances, whose revenue is larger by more
than four times than that of the second player, XQL Corporation, the Rule of Three
and Four is not applicable to the kitchenware industry that highlighted instability of
the industry and room for growth to all the players.
Industry/Compa
ny
High
Medium
Low
High
Medium
Low
Blaine
Revenue
0.979
EBITDA
0.819
EPS
0.432
DPS
0.998
Financial Analysis:
From 2003-2006, despite being positioned in an industry with modest dollar sales
volume growth of 3.5%, Blaine was able to grow at a CAGR of 6.6%. The topline
growth is mostly attributed to the increase in volume of shipments as most of the
industry players are constrained in pricing owing to competition from inexpensive
imports and aggressive pricing by mass merchandisers. Even though the industry is
expected to consolidate the same pattern can be observed for pricing and even
Blaine expects the growth to be modest at roughly 3.5% going forward. The
company can pursue further organic growth through penetration into other markets
(Currently 65% of revenue comes from US) and increasing its share in beverage
market appliances (Currently 2%).
Blaines EBIT margins have reduced from 21.4% to 18.7% largely due to integration
costs. Despite this reduction the companys margins are the highest in the industry
(14.9%), partly due to the companys product mix that is dominated by mid-tier
products (85% of sales and 80% of EBIT). A significant portion (17.4%) of net
income is derived from other income through marketable securities. The companys
effective tax rate is expected to increase to 40% which will negatively affect
companys cash flows and net margins. The dividend payout ratio has significantly
increased in the recent years with 53% in 2006 which highlights the fact that there
are not enough lucrative growth opportunities for the management to invest in. This
dividend payout ratio might be tough to retain in the future years, if the company
has to pursue any inorganic growth, capital expenditures or service debt.
Debt:
-230.9
Tax Shield:
-71.0
Equity:
959.6
Total:
728.7
Total:
728.7
84
82
89
80
51
60
51
52
47
47
86
86
47
40
20
-
Inventory
A/R
2004
A/P
2005
Cash Conversion
2006
2005
ROA
2006
ROE
The companys inefficiency in churning out maximum output of its assets is visible
in the poor return on asset and equity numbers (ROA of 9%, compared to peers
12%, ROE of 11%, compared to peers 26%) compared to the industrys average.
This can be largely attributable to high cash & marketable securities which
constitute a significant portion of assets but give relatively modest returns at 6%.
EVA ($ Million)
EBIT
Tax %)
NOPAT
Equity
Mkt Equity
Net Debt
Capital
Book Capital
Asset Beta
Equity Beta
Cost of Debt
Cost of Equity
WACC
EVA
2004
62
32%
42
417
777
(286)
491
132
0.67
0.50
6.75%
7.87%
9.78%
30
2005
61
32%
41
459
864
(268)
596
191
0.67
0.53
6.75%
8.01%
9.54%
23
2006
64
31%
44
488
960
(231)
729
257
0.67
0.56
6.75%
8.18%
9.29%
20
Even though the company has created positive EVA from 2004-06, the absolute
value of EVA dropped overtime due to increase in fixed assets. Owing to the
expected increase in tax rates, insufficient growth opportunities, EVA, ROA and ROE
might drop down significantly in the years to come.
LTM
Multiples
EV/Revenue
Blaine
2.1
EasyLiv
ing
1.9
Average
1.5
Min
1.0
Max
1.9
11.4
10.4
7.4
18.1
9.1
6.0
15.2
3.5
1.6
4.9
16.2
9.9
31.8
15.2
EV/EBITDA
9.9
4.4
Market/Book
2.0
31.8
P/E
17.9
Except for Market/Book value, Blaine is marginally trading above the industry
multiples mostly due to the negative debt, which decreased the EV and increased
the multiples (A trend that is visible even in Easyliving stock which is trading
significantly at higher multiples compared to its peers). Despite this premium in
trading multiples, the stock has underperformed compared to its peers and barely
over performed compared to the broad market at only 11% per year from 2004-06.
With huge operational cash flow, $231 million cash equivalents, free debt and weak
enterprise value, BKI would be an available and vulnerable target company of the
hostile takeover due to this capital structure. The acquirer can effectively take
advantage of the characteristics of BKIs capital structure, zero D/E ratios and great
cash flow, to initiate the hostile takeover with minimum acquisition cost, for
example, by pursuing the LBO. Based on industry and BKIs competitive advantage
analysis, it is clear that BKI didnt have outstanding competitive advantage.
Therefore, BKI should improve its D/E ratios to create rather than destroy value
through tax shield, optimize its capital structure, which would be helpful in
defending against the potential hostile takeover. No matter what strategy BKI finally
employs, stock buyback or special dividend, both of them will enhance shareholder
value. In particular buyback strategy might also bring management a higher
percentage of share ownership and control.
More important, BKI took on additional debt with the purpose of either paying a
large dividend or repurchasing shares. The result is a far more utilization of financial
leverage. After the debt increased in fourth time in BKIs history, it would initiate the
serious strategy consideration about (1) how to redesign the payout policies and
finance budgeting process of BKI; (2) how to enhance the profitability through
sustainable improvement in operation performance, product innovation, and
economies of scale; (3) how to select its strategic direction, cost leadership or
differentiation business strategy or integration strategy based on different market
segment; and (4) Whether the pretty conservative management style is suitable for
the fast changing environment and more intense competition? The reduced idle
cash and debt capacity would push BKIs management to dedicate to its target,
continuously generating more cash flows to lower its D/E ratio in long-term.
BKIs payout policy sounds rational. Even though it signifies the managements
inability to find sufficient growth opportunities through organic or inorganic routes,
the intent of management to distribute the excess cash to shareholders rather than
investing in negative NPV projects is plausible. Over the years the payout ratio has
increased significantly and to maintain the same payout ratio in the future would be
an uphill task, especially if the management require significant amount of growth
capital. As on 2006, BKI held $231 million in cash and marketable securities. The
annual average return on these liquid assets over the last three years at 5.78% is
much lower than the companys cost of equity i.e. 8.18%. So rather than further
Basically, management of BKI should redesign its capital structure and payout
policy based on its long-term strategy, which should focus on business innovation
and continuous cash flow creation capability, not just simply better financial and
dividend payout ratio in short-term.
Whether is repurchasing stock really good strategy for BKI at this moment? Dubinski
should consider the following downsides of stock buyback strategy. Blaines stock
price was not far off its all-time high, yet its performance clearly lagged that of its
peers. Per this reality, we assume that the stock price of BKI in 2006 was
overvalued. If so, it could lead the proportional loss of shareholders value. On the
other hand, it is possible release misleading signal to market and drive the stock
price higher, deviating from its real value. Thus, Dubinski should consider whether it
is a good timing to pursue stock buyback and whether buyback truly represents the
best possible financial leverage strategy for BKI compared other possible strategy
like special dividend and etc.
WACC (%)
Cost of
Equity
Cost of Debt
Old
New
8.18%
6.75%
8.88%
6.75%
Comments
Assuming Rf: 5.10% and Rm-Rf: 5.50%
18.50/Share * 45.05 Million Shares
Equity ($ Mn)
960
833
Debt ($ Mn)
(231)
Value ($ Mn)
729
862
E/V
1.3
1.0
28
(0.3)
9.27%
0.0
8.54%
Asset Beta
New Equity
Beta
0.67
0.67
0.56
0.69
Metric ($ Mn )
Chang
e
EBIT
Other Income
(13.5)
Interest expense
(3.4)
PBT
(16.9)
Tax
5.2
Net Income
(11.7)
New
41.9
Shares
59.1
45.1
Equity (Book)
488.4
229.4
Equity (Mkt)
959.6
833.5
EBITDA
73.9
73.9
Interest expense
Interest Coverage (with
EBITDA)
3.4
EPS
ROE
ROA
0.91
0.93
11.0%
18.3%
9.1%
11.6%
24.1%
3.38%
12.27
47.3%
%
D/E (Mkt)
D/E (Book)
Family
Ownership (%)
P/E
Enterprise
Value
EBITDA/Interest expense
NM
21.9
62.0%
17.9
81.3%
19.9
728.7
861.6
WACC (%)
Cost of
Equity
Cost of Debt
Old
New
8.18%
6.75%
8.88%
6.75%
Comments
Assuming Rf: 5.10% and Rm-Rf: 5.50%
14.11/Share * 59.05 Million Shares
Equity ($ Mn)
960
833
Debt ($ Mn)
(231)
Value ($ Mn)
729
862
E/V
1.3
1.0
D/V
WACC
(0.3)
9.27%
0.0
8.54%
Asset Beta
New Equity
Beta
0.67
0.67
28
0.69
Metric ($ Mn )
Chang
e
EBIT
Other Income
(13.5)
Interest expense
(3.4)
PBT
(16.9)
Tax
5.2
Net Income
(11.7)
Comments
Old
New
Shares
Equity (Book)
53.6
41.9
59.1
59.1
229.4
Equity (Mkt)
959.6
833.5
EBITDA
73.9
73.9
Interest expense
Interest Coverage (with
EBITDA)
3.4
EPS
ROE
ROA
0.91
0.71
11.0%
18.3%
9.1%
11.6%
24.1%
3.38%
12.27
47.3%
%
D/E (Mkt)
D/E (Book)
Family
Ownership (%)
P/E
Enterprise
Value
EBITDA/Interest expense
NM
21.9
62.0%
17.9
62.0%
19.9
728.7
861.6
Compared to share buyback, special dividend doesnt reduces the number of shares
outstanding, thus the control and ownership of BKI. But, as BKI inputs cash to
repurchase its outstanding shares, it leads to reduction of the assets on the balance
sheet, and then, as a result, the ROA goes up. In terms of ROE, it is obvious that
special dividends is equal to reducing the shareholders equity, so there is less
outstanding equity of BKI and it conversely results in increased ROE. Besides, it will
also improve the P/E ratio, as the stock price of BKI might increase after its dividend
announcement and the reduced share price after ex-dividend will more than
compensate the reduction in EPS due to reduced earnings.
The special dividend increases ROE drastically, marginally increases ROA and
decreases EPS. The dividend marginally increases the equity cost of capital but with
reduction in cash and additional debt it reduces the weighted average cost of
capital of Blaine. It also increased the enterprise value of the company to $861.6
Million and P/E to 19.9.
Shareholders response:
The special dividend doesnt result in any change in the ownership of family
members, though there is an increased returns, reduction in taxable income and
increased EV and P/E. The special dividend doesnt reduce the risk of takeover by an
external party reasonably as the cash flows even after the special dividends are
significant and the debt isnt very significant, the reduced share price makes BKI
more attractive and with no change in the external shareholding it is still
susceptible for a takeover offer. These risks dont outweigh the traditional
Old
NM
2
1
1.5
5.02%
0.80%
5.82%
5.02%
0%
5.02%
1
1
5.5
5.02%
0.65%
5.67%
9.2
5.02%
0.85%
5.87%
7.0
5.02%
1.83%
6.85%
5.2
5.02%
2.98%
8.00%
4.2
5.02%
4.10%
9.12%
NM
7
3.9
AAA
7
3.9
AA
7
3.9
A
7
3.9
4.8
84.0
6
2.2
6.4
110.4
88.5
8.0
136.8
11
4.9
BBB
7
3.9
1
0.6
154.0
13
2.2
BB
7
3.9
1
4.1
175.9
15
4.0
B
7
3.9
1
7.4
191.0
16
9.1
0
(230
.9)
16.
25
16
.25
95
9.6
72
8.7
1.
32
(0.3
2)
0.
67
0.
56
8.18%
6.75%
9.29%
17.
78
18
.49
1
5.9
79
8.7
86
0.8
0.
93
0.
07
0.
67
0.
71
8.99%
5.67%
8.63%
17.
91
18
.63
1
7.1
78
0.8
86
9.3
0.
90
0.
10
0.
67
0.
72
9.09%
5.82%
8.57%
18.
05
18
.77
1
8.4
76
2.8
87
7.7
0.
87
0.
13
0.
67
0.
74
9.18%
5.87%
8.51%
18.
14
18
.87
1
9.2
75
1.1
88
3.2
0.
85
0.
15
0.
67
0.
75
9.25%
6.85%
8.57%
18.
25
18
.98
2
0.3
73
6.2
89
0.2
0.
83
0.
17
0.
67
0.
77
9.33%
8.00%
8.68%
18.
33
19
.07
2
1.0
72
5.9
89
5.1
0.
81
0.
19
0.
67
0.
78
9.39%
9.12%
8.81%
The increase in borrowing decreases interest coverage, increases credit risk and
hence the credit rating goes down and the interest rate of borrowing increases.
Optimal capital structure should try to reduce the weighted average cost of capital.
From the quotes received from the bank, the third alternative with a credit rating of
A at interest coverage ratio of 9.2 gives the minimum WACC, and hence we should
take $136.8 Mn debt and retire stock. The share price after taking debt increases
and announcement of retirement will be $18.05 due to gain in tax shield, but the
realistic assumption of buying back shares would be at an effective price of
$18.77/share (4% appreciation from theoretical share price). So at $18.77/share we
should buyback 18.4 million shares.
Conducting a similar optimal capital structure analysis at various interest coverage
ratios to find out if 9.2 interest coverage i.e $136.8 Mn is the optimal debt has given
interesting results.
8.90%
8.80%
8.70%
B
B
8.60%
BB
B
8.40%
8.30%
-
AA
A
AA
8.50%
2.0
4.0
6.0
A
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0
The graph clearly shows that from AAA to A the weighted average cost of capital
decreases with increase in borrowing and later follows a step function for each of
BBB, BB ratings maintaining the decrease in WACC with increase in borrowing in
those respective limits. For credit rating of B, WACC started increasing with increase
in borrowing. An optimal capital structure essentially should try to minimize WACC.
At interest coverage ratio of 7.1 i.e. the bare minimum ratio at which we can get
credit rating of A, the weighted average cost of capital is minimum. So we should
take $177.2 Million shares and retire 20.34 million shares at $18.99/share.
Optimal capital structure Value of levered firm:
For calculating optimal capital structure, we have studied another approach where
the total value of the levered firm is maximized for a given capital structure.
Value of Levered firm = Value of Unlevered firm + Tax rate*Debt Expected
bankruptcy costs, the value of unlevered firm doesnt change with the debt taken,
so hence we studied the profile of Debt tax shield Expected bankruptcy costs vs
Debt to arrive at the maximum value of levered firm.
Bankruptcy costs are assumed to be 40% of unlevered firm value i.e.
Bankruptcy costs = 40% * Unlevered firm
Unlevered firm = Value of operating assets (From Market Balance Sheet) = $799.7
Million
Bankruptcy cost = $319.9 Million
Further the probability of bankruptcy is assumed as follows considering the
historical bankruptcy of various firms according to their credit rating:
Probability
0.01%
0.28%
0.53%
2.30%
12.20%
26.36%
130.00
120.00
A
AA
110.00
100.00
AA
A
BB
90.00
80.00
70.00
60.00
50.00
40.00
30.00
10
12
14
16
18
20
The graph clearly shows that from AAA to B the expected net increase in firm value
(Tax shield Expected bankruptcy costs) increases with increase in borrowing and
follows a step function in borrowing in those respective limits. An optimal capital
structure essentially should try to maximize the increase in firm value. At interest
coverage ratio of 5.1 i.e. the bare minimum ratio at which we can get credit rating
of BBB, we get the maximum value for levered firm i.e. the optimal capital structure
to be maintained. So we should take $211.4 Million debt and retire 21.92 million
shares at $19.18/share.