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Snow Report
There's a 90 Percent Chance We're Getting a Strong El Nio
Thursday, August 13, 2015, by Michael Schrantz
NOAA
The weather experts have spoken: This winter is going to have a strong El Nio. In fact, according to the forecast
released Thursday, there's a 90 percent chance that El Nio will persist through the winter, even rivaling the
strong events in 1972-73, 1982-83 and 1997-98. More to the point for skiers and riders is how snowfall fared
during those strong El Nio winters. In his end of the season take after the 97-98 season, Tony Crocker, of
Bestsnow.net, compared El Nio to flipping a biased coin: All the randomness of weather is still there, but the
chances of certain events are increased. For whatever we can learn about El Nio snowfall from the past, Curbed
Ski is taking a look back at what the 97-98 event meant for popular resorts.
The 1997 El Nio was a record event wreaked havoc around the world, but maybe surprisingly, the effect on
snowfall at North American resorts was pretty regional and not even that significant throughout the entire course
of the season.
Much like this year, it was South America's ski season that benefitted the most from the 1997 El Nio. It was a
little later this year, but Chile and Argentina look like they're going to end with amazing seasons.
According to Crocker, only California saw significantly above average snowfall during the 1997-98 season. And if
this year's El Nio tracks 1997-98 closely, it might be worth checking out some of the smaller ski areas in
Southern California, like Snow Summit and Bear Mountain, along with Mammoth.
North American resort snow totals:
Mammoth: 542 inches, 156 percent of normal
Alyeska: 676 inches, 140 percent of normal
Whistler: 394 inches, 98 percent of normal
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Grand Targhee: 472 inches, 102 percent of normal
Big Sky: 230 inches, 89 percent of normal
Alta: 595 inches, 114 percent of normal
Vail: 339 inches, 93 percent of normal
Aspen Highlands: 246 inches, 100 percent of normal
Taos: 310 inches, 113 percent of normal
Sugarloaf: 254 inches, 146 percent of normal
*Crocker's Bestsnow.net tallies snowfall from November through April for some resorts and May for others, and
comparisons are to the average he keeps. As his calculations were done in 1998, the averages he's using
obviously don't reflect the resorts' more recent snowfall history.
Climate:
El
Nio
could
extend
Pacific
Northwest
drought
Bestsnow.net
Official
Checking
In:
How's
the
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at
Your
Favorite
Chile Keeps Getting Dumped On, So Check Out These Photos [Curbed Ski]
Ski
[Summit
Area?
County
[Curbed
Voice]
site]
Ski]
Climate: El Nio could extend Pacific Northwest drought
Posted on August 13, 2015 by Bob Berwyn
NOAA updates seasonal outlook; El Nio likely to persist into spring
Warmer than average sea surface temperatures prevail across most of the eastern and central Pacific Ocean, as
El Nio continues to strengthen.
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By Bob Berwyn
FRISCO Federal weather experts today said theyre more sure than ever that a strong El Nio will persist
through the fall and winter, but they are less certain about how the cyclical Pacific Ocean climate pattern will play
out across the U.S. The Aug. 13 El Nio update and diagnostic discussion is online here it says theres a 90
percent chance El Nio will last through the winter and an 85 percent chance it will last into early spring 2016.
During an El Nio, sea surface temperatures are above average across the eastern and central equatorial Pacific,
and this years event could be among the strongest on record dating back to 1950, said Mike Halpert, deputy
director of NOAAs Climate Prediction Center.
The pattern also favors a continuation of drought conditions in the Pacific Northwest, according to NOAAs El Nio
experts.
Sea surface temperatures in the ocean region used to assess El Nio strength could soar to 2 degrees Celsius
above average, putting this years event on par with 1972-73, 1982-83 and 1997-98, Halpert said.
In general, the pattern suggests above average winter precipitation across the southern tier of states, including
Southern California. Rain and snow could be below average in the Great Lakes region as well as the Northern
Rockies, including the important Upper Colorado River Basin, which is a critical water source area for much of the
Southwest, but the links between El Nio and snowpack in the mountain West are not all that strong, the NOAA
experts said during a telephone press conference.
Its important to remember that, just because something is favored, its not guaranteed, Halpert said, referring to
speculation that an El Nio-fueled winter could be a drought-buster for California. One winter of above-average
precipitation is unlikely to erase four years of drought, he added.
El Nio tends to bring above-average precipitation to Southern California, but doesnt have much of a signal
across the northern part of the state, where most of the big reservoirs are located, said Kevin Werner, director of
NOAAs western region climate services.
The correlation between El Nio and precipitation are far from perfect, Werner said, describing drier-thanaverage conditions during some El Nio years, including 2002, which brought a bitter drought to Colorado and
other parts of the West.
Werner said its also difficult to discern at this point how El Nio will affect winter temperatures in the West. In the
context of global warming, and with a pool of very warm water off the West Coast, there are some concerns that
winter moisture will come in the form of rain rather than more beneficial snow that accumulates and runs off
gradually in the spring.
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Federal experts: This El Nino may be historically strong
.
FILE - In this June 25, 1998 file photo, a Caltrans bulldozer terraces a sliding hillside below the condemned home
above Pacific Coast Highway near Las Flores Canyon Road in Malibu, Calif. The home and at least one other at
the top of the slide was scheduled for demolition. Federal meteorologists said Thursday that the current El Nino is
already the second strongest on record for this time of year and could go down as one of the most potent weather
changers of the past 65 years. The National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration recorded unusual warmth in the
Pacific Ocean the last three months. El Nino is a heating of the equatorial Pacific that changes weather worldwide,
mostly affecting the United States in winter. (AP Photo/Reed Saxon, File)
WASHINGTON (AP) The current El Nio, nicknamed Bruce Lee, is already the second strongest on record for
this time of year and could be one of the most potent weather changers of the past 65 years, federal
meteorologists say.
But California and other drought struck areas better not count on El Nio rescuing them like in a Bruce Lee action
movie, experts say.
"A big El Nio guarantees nothing," said Mike Halper, deputy director of the National Oceanic Atmospheric
Administration's Climate Prediction Center. "At this point there's no cause for rejoicing that El Nino is here to save
the day."
Every few years, the winds shift and the water in the Pacific Ocean gets warmer than usual. The resulting El Nino
(ehl NEEN'-yoh) changes weather worldwide, mostly affecting the United States in winter.
In addition to California, El Nio often brings heavy winter rain to much of the southern and eastern U.S.
It's also likely to make the northern winters warmer and southeastern U.S. winters a bit cooler, but not much,
Halpert said. The middle of the U.S. usually doesn't get too much of an El Nino effect, he said.
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California's state climatologist Michael Anderson noted that only half the time when there have been big El Nio
has there been meaningfully heavy rains. The state would need 1 times its normal rainfall to get out of this
extended drought and that's unlikely, Halpert said Thursday.
Still, this El Nio is shaping up to be up there with the record-setters, because of incredible warmth in the key part
of the Pacific in the last three months, Halpert said. He said the current El Nino likely will rival ones in 1997-1998,
1982-83 and 1972-73.
NASA oceanographer Bill Patzert said satellite measurements show this El Nio to be currently more powerful
than 1997-98, which often is thought of as the king. But that one started weaker and finished stronger, he said.
This El Nio is so strong a NOAA blog unofficially named it the "Bruce Lee" of El Nios after the late movie action
hero. The California-based Patzert, who points out that mudslides and other mayhem happens, compares it to
Godzilla.
Economic studies favor the hero theme, showing that El Ninos tend to benefit the United States. Droughts and
Atlantic hurricanes are reduced. California mudslides notwithstanding, the U.S. economy benefited by nearly $22
billion from that 1997-98 El Nino, according to a study.
El Nio does tend to cause problems elsewhere in the world. And while El Nino often puts a big damper on the
Atlantic hurricane season, that means more storms in the Pacific, such as Hawaii, Halpert said. So far this year,
tropical cyclone activity in the Pacific is far higher than normal.
___
Online:
NOAA's El Nino page: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml
NASA's El Nino page: http://sealevel.jpl.nasa.gov/elnino2015/index.html
Panama declares drought emergency
By Juan Jos Rodrguez August 12, 2015 6:22 AM
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.
Panama City (AFP) - Panama's government has declared a state of emergency as it faces a drought that has
prompted water restrictions, depleted reservoirs and affected shipping through its bustling canal.
The government blamed the El Nio weather phenomenon for the major drought. The state of emergency
declared Tuesday also sets up a government board tasked with rushing to deliver a water security plan in under
four months.
"El Nio" refers to the abnormal warming of surface waters in the tropical sections of the Pacific Ocean every
three to five years that can have wide-ranging impacts on regional climate.
Climatologists began observing the most recent El Nino several months ago, and some fear that because of
global warming the phenomenon will hit many areas with increasing frequency and greater destructive potential in
coming years.
The government must deliver "needed steps ... to develop water reserves to avoid shortages for people's
consumption and for food security in the Central American nation" caused by the drought, it warned.
For now, authorities have barred use of drinking water to water lawns, gardens and golf courses.
Honduras has been hit by a major drought caused by "El Nio" too (AFP Photo/Orlando Sierra
It also stopped issuing permits that allow people to burn branches, brush and other natural waste for fear of
fueling wildfires.
Last week, authorities said the canal, which connects the Pacific and the Atlantic through the Caribbean, would
temporarily limit the size of ships using the waterway due to the drought.
The Panama Canal Authority said the maximum ship draft will be cut to 11.89 meters (39 feet) from September 8,
affecting 18.5 percent of vessels that normally transit the link between the Atlantic and Pacific oceans.
A ship's draft is its depth in the water, and changes as the vessel becomes heavier or lighter.
- More canal restrictions possible The canal authority said further restrictions could be imposed on September 16 if weather conditions do not
change.
The Panama Canal handles five percent of global shipping, but may need to upgrade its century-old infrastructure
in the face of rival bids for market share from Egypt's Suez Canal and a new Nicaraguan canal being planned by a
Chinese company.
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Originally scheduled for completion last year, a more than five-billion-dollar canal upgrade is now only expected to
be ready in April 2016.
Canal administrator Jorge Quijano said the month of June and the first half of July were the driest period in 102
years.
Water levels in the lakes that feed the canal have dropped sharply as well.
Dry weather conditions in March 1998 saw authorities take similar measures.
The emergency is meant to last until some two months after the World Meteorological Organization's data on El
Nio shows that temperatures in the tropical equatorial Pacific have decreased to a target level.
Alertan sobre un fenmeno de "El Nio" 2015 que "viene muy fuerte
NeoMundo vie, 14 ago 2015
(www.neomundo.com.ar / Fuente: Voz de Amrica)
Meteorlogos estadounidenses advierten que el actual fenmeno climatlogo conocido como "El Nio" podra
convertirse en uno de los ms poderosos de la historia y generar tormentas nunca vistas en California.
El fenmeno de este ao, apodado "Godzilla", por su gran intensidad o "Bruce Lee", como el hroe de pelculas
de artes marciales, parece encaminarse a ser uno de los ms fuertes, a causa del inusual calor en un rea clave
del Pacfico en los ltimos tres meses, rivalizando a los ocurridos en 1997-1998, 1982-1983 y 1972-1973.
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De acuerdo al Centro de Prediccin del Clima Servicio Meteorolgico Nacional, El Nio alcanzar su fuerza
mxima a fines del otoo o principios del invierno. Eso podra aliviar la fuerte sequa en California, aunque con
costos considerables en inundaciones, deslaves y abundante nieve en la Sierra Nevada, una fuente vital de agua.
En 1998 un fuerte El Nio provoc la muerte de 17 personas y ms de $500 millones de dlares en daos. El
centro de Los ngeles, por ejemplo, recibi casi el equivalente de un ao de lluvias solo en el mes de febrero.
El oceangrafo de la NASA, Bill Patzert, dijo que mediciones por satlites muestran que este El Nio es
actualmente ms poderoso que el de 1997-98, que usualmente es considerado el mximo. Pero ese comenz
dbil y termin ms fuerte, dijo.
Adems de California, El Nio a menudo trae intensas lluvias invernales a gran parte del sur y el este de Estados
Unidos, pero en realidad cambia el clima en todo el mundo. Suele suavizar la temporada de huracanes en el
Atlntico, pero provoca ms tormentas en el Pacfico,
El fenmeno que se origina en el Pacfico tropical ocurre ms o menos cada dos a siete aos. Los meteorlogos
afirman que el sistema de este ao ya ha provocado sequas en partes de Filipinas, Indonesia y Australia.
