TPR3411 Pattern Recognition
Tutorial 2 (Solution)
1.
The probability that Sam parks in a no-parking zone and gets
police summon is 0.06. The probability that Sam cannot find a
legal parking space and has to park in the no-parking zone is
0.20. On Tuesday, Sam arrives at school and has to park in a noparking zone. Find the probability that he will get a police
summon.
Solution:
Let N = parking in a no-parking zone
summon
Then
P (S N ) 0.06
P(S | N )
0.30
P( N )
0.20
S = getting a police
2. Probability that John passes a Math exam is 4/5 and that he
passes a Computer programming exam is 5/6. If the probability
that he passes both exams is 3/4, find the probability that he will
pass at least one exam.
Solution:
Let M = John passes Math exam and C = John passes Computer
programming exam.
Then P (John passes at least one exam) = P(M U C ) = P(M) + P(C)
P(M C)
= 4/5+5/6
3/4 = 53/60
3.
For the experiment in which the number of pumps in use at a single
eight-pump gas station is observed. Let A = {0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5}, B ={4, 5,
6, 7, 8} and C = {1, 6, 7}. Then find
a) AB
b) A U B
c) A U C and
d) (A U C)
Solutions:
a) AB = {0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5} {4, 5, 6, 7, 8} = {4, 5}
b) A U B = {0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5} U {4, 5, 6, 7, 8} = {0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7,
8} = S
c) A U C = {0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5} U {1, 6, 7} = {0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7}
d) (A U C) = S - (A U C) = {0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8} - {0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5,
6, 7} = {8}
4. Imagine that you went to a friends wedding in Australia recently.
It is known that 1 in 200 people who visited Australia recently
come back with swine flu. The doctor selects you at random to
have a blood test for swine flu. The test is 99% accurate and the
probability of a false positive is 2%. You test positive. What is the
probability that you have swine flu?
Solution:
P ( Flu ) 0.005 , P (Flu ) 0.995
P ( Pos | Flu ) 0.99 , P ( Neg | Flu ) 0.01
P ( Pos | Flu ) 0.02 , P ( Neg | Flu ) 0.98
P ( Flu | Pos)
P ( Pos | Flu ) P ( Flu )
P( Pos | Flu ) P ( Flu ) P ( Pos | Flu ) P (Flu )
0.99 0.005)
(0.99 0.005) (0.02 0.995)
= 0.07
5. Assume that you are on a quiz show. There is a prize behind one
of the two doors. The doors are coloured red and blue. A coin will
be tossed to decide which door to open. You were told that there
is prize behind the red door 10% of the time, and the blue door
20% of the time.
If given a choice to make, which door would you open in order to
win the prize?
Solution:
P (Red) 0.5 , P ( Blue) 0.5
P (Prize | Red) 0.1 , P (Prize | Red) 0.9
P (Prize | Blue) 0.2 , P (Prize | Blue) 0.8
P (Red | Prize)
P (Prize | Red) P(Red)
P (Prize | Red) P(Red) P(Prize | Blue) P(Blue)
0.1 0.5
(0.1 0.5) (0.2 0.5)
= 0.33
P (Blue | Prize) 1 0.33 0.67
Therefore, I would choose to open the blue door.
6.
During the summer months, a retailer keeps track of the
number of iPads it sells each day during a period of 90 days. The
number of iPad sold per day is represented by the variable X.
Compute the probability P(X) for each X.
X
Number of days
45
30
15
Total
90
Solutions:
For 0 iPad: 45/90 = 0.5
For 1 iPad: 30/90 = 0.33
For 2 iPads: 15/90 = 0.17
Number of iPads sold X
Probability P(X)
0.50
0.33
0.17
7.
Find the probability of getting a 3 or 4 or 5 while throwing a die where
sample spaces S={1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9}.
Solution:
Sample Spaces S={1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9} and event E={3,4,5}.
We have, number of outcomes=3 and total number of outcomes = 9
So, P(E)=3/9=0.3333
8. The probability distribution shown in the given table represents the
number holidays that an MMU student spends in the home town per
2 weeks. (That is, 18% do not go to the home town so sad, 34%
spend 1 day, 23% spends 2 days and so on).
a) Find the mean
b) Compute variance and standard deviation
Number of days
X
Probability P(X)
0.18
0.34
0.23
0.21
0.04
Solutions:
a)
X P ( X )
= (0)(0.18)+(1)(0.34)+(2)(0.23)+(3)(0.21)+(4)(0.04)
= 1.6
b)
2 ( X ) 2 P( X )
[(0 1.6) 2 0.18] [(1 1.6) 2 0.34] [(2
1.6) 2 0.23]
[(3
1.6)
2 0.21]
[(4
1.6)
2 0.04]
= 1.23
The standard deviation is 2 1.23 1.1
