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Tutorial 1 For MIT Applied Probability Course

This document is from an MIT course on probabilistic systems analysis. It contains three probability problems: 1) Whether events A and B can be independent if A is a subset of B. 2) Calculating the probabilities that three identical electrical subsystems and the overall system are operational, given the probability p that individual components are operational. 3) A multi-stage chess tournament problem, where the document provides the probabilities of different players winning matches and asks to calculate the probabilities of different outcomes.

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104 views3 pages

Tutorial 1 For MIT Applied Probability Course

This document is from an MIT course on probabilistic systems analysis. It contains three probability problems: 1) Whether events A and B can be independent if A is a subset of B. 2) Calculating the probabilities that three identical electrical subsystems and the overall system are operational, given the probability p that individual components are operational. 3) A multi-stage chess tournament problem, where the document provides the probabilities of different players winning matches and asks to calculate the probabilities of different outcomes.

Uploaded by

AkulBansal
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Department of Electrical Engineering & Computer Science


6.041/6.431: Probabilistic Systems Analysis
(Fall 2010)

Tutorial 1

September 16/17, 2010

1. Let A and B be events such that A B. Can A and B be independent?

2. An electrical system consists of identical components that are operational with probability p
independently of other components. The components are connected in three subsystems, as
shown in the gure. The system is operational if there is a path that starts at point A, ends
at point B, and consists of operational components. This is the same as requiring that all three
subsystems are operational. What are the probabilities that the three subsystems, as well as the
entire system, are operational?

1 2 3

A B

Figure 1: A system of identical components that consists of the three subsystems 1, 2, and 3. The
system is operational if there is a path that starts at point A, ends at point B, and consists of operational
components.

3. The Chess Problem. This years Belmont chess champion is to be selected by the following
procedure. Bo and Ci, the leading challengers, rst play a two-game match. If one of them wins
both games, he gets to play a two-game second round with Al, the current champion. Al retains
his championship unless a second round is required and the challenger beats Al in both games.
If Al wins the initial game of the second round, no more games are played.

Furthermore, we know the following:

The probability that Bo will beat Ci in any particular game is 0.6.


The probability that Al will beat Bo in any particular game is 0.5.
The probability that Al will beat Ci in any particular game is 0.7.

Assume no tie games are possible and all games are independent.

(a) Determine the apriori probabilities that


i. the second round will be required.
ii. Bo will win the rst round.
iii. Al will retain his championship this year.
(b) Given that the second round is required, determine the conditional probabilities that

Page 1 of 2
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Department of Electrical Engineering & Computer Science
6.041/6.431: Probabilistic Systems Analysis
(Fall 2010)

i. Bo is the surviving challenger.


ii. Al retains his championship.
(c) Given that the second round was required and that it comprised only one game, what is the
conditional probability that it was Bo who won the rst round?

Page 2 of 2
MIT OpenCourseWare
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6.041 / 6.431 Probabilistic Systems Analysis and Applied Probability


Fall 2010

For information about citing these materials or our Terms of Use, visit: http://ocw.mit.edu/terms.

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