Exercise 100 —. 1. Suppose that A, B, Cand D are independent events, with P(A) = and P(D) = 3. Use the product rule to find: (a) P(AB) (b) P(AD) (c) P(BC) (a) P(ABC) (e) P(BCD) (f) P(ABCD) 2. A-coin and adie are tossed. Use the product rule to find the probability of obtain (a) a three and a head, (c) an ev mber and a tail, (b) asix and a tail, (d) a number less than five and a head, 3. One set of cards contains the numbers 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5, and another set contains the letters A,B,C, D and EB. One card is drawn at random from each set. Use the product rule to find the probability of drawing: (a) 4and B, (e) an even number and a. vowel, (b) 2or 5, then D, (£) a number less than 3, and B, (c) 1, then A or B or C, (g) the number 4, followed by a letter from (d) an odd munber and C, the word MATHS. 4, ‘Two marbles are picked at random, one from a bag containing three red and four bine marbles, and the other from a bag containing five red and two blue marbles. Find the probability of drawing: (a) two red marbles, (b) two blue marbles, (c) ared marble from the first bag and @ blue marble from the second. 5. A box contains five light globes, two of which are fanlty. Two globes are selected, one at a time without replacement. Find the probability that: (a) both globes are faulty, (b) neither globe is faulty, (0) the first globe is faulty and the second one is not, (A) the second globe is faulty and the first one is not 6. A box contains twelve red and ten green discs. Three discs are selected, one at a time without replacement. (a) What is the probability that the dises selected are red, green, red in that order? (b) What is the probability of this event if the disc is replaced after each draw? 7. (a) From a standard pack of 52 cards, two cards are drawn at random without replace- ment. Find the probability of drawing: (3) aspade then a heart, (iii) a jack then a. queen, {ii) two clubs, (iv) the king of diamonds then the ace of clubs. (b) Repeat the question if the first card is replaced before the second card is drawn. 8. A coin is weighted so that it is twice as likely to fall heads as itis tails. (a) Write down the probabilities that the coin falls: (i) heads, (li) tails. {b) If you toss the coin three times, find the probability of (i) three heads, (ii) three tails, (ili) head, tail, head in that order. the following arguments. If poss! 9, [Valid and invalid arguments) Identify any fallacies i ble, give some indication of how to correct them, (a) ‘The probability that a Year 12 student chosen at random likes classical music is 50%, and the probability that a student plays a classical instrument is 20%. Therefore the probability that a student chosen at random likes classical music and plays a classical instrument is 10%.”(>) 10. ML. 12. 13. 14. 1b. “The probability of a die showing a prime is 4, and the probability that it shows an odd number is }. Hence the probability that it shows an odd prime number is }x $= 17 ‘I choose a team at random from an eight-team competition, The probability that it wins any game is 4, so the probability that it defeats all of the other seven teams is (3) = Te" ‘A normal coin is tossed and shows heads eight times. Nevertheless, the probability that it shows heads the next time is still 4. An archer fires three shots at a bullseye. He has a 90% chance of hitting the bulls-eye. Using H for hit and M for miss, list all eight possible onteomes. ‘Then, assuming, that successive shots are independent, use the product rule to find the probability that he will: (a) hit the bulls-eye three times, (d) hit the bullseye exactly once, (b) miss the bulls-eye three times, (c) miss the bulls-eye on the first shot only, (c) hit the bulls-eye on the first shot only, — (f) miss the bulls-eye exactly onee. (Hlivr: Part (d) requires adding the probabilities of HMM, MHM and MMH, and part (f) requires a similar calculation. A die is rolled twice. Using the product rule, find the probability of rolling: (a) a double two, (e) @ four and then a one, (b) any double, (£) a one and a fons in any order, (c) a number greater than three, then an (g) an even number, then a five, odd number, (h) a five and then an even number, (a) a one and then a four, (i) an even number and a five in any order. ‘There is a one-in-five chance that you will guess the correct answer to a multiple-choice question. The test contains five such questions — label the various possible results of the test as COCCC, COCCI, CCCIC, .... What is the chance that you will answer: {a) all five correctly, (b) all five incorrectly, (c) the first, third and fifth correctly, and the second and fourth incorrectly, (4) the first correctly and the remainder incorrectly, (e) exactly one correctly, [Hiwt: Add the probabilities of CII, ICHL, ICH, ICI, HMC] (2) exactly four correctly. [Hit List the possible outeomes first.) A die is thrown six times. (a) What is the probability that the nth throw is n on each occasion? (b) What is the probability that the nth throw is non exactly five occasi From a bag containing two red and two green marbles, marbles are drawn one at a time without replacement until two green marbles have been drawn. Find the probability that: (a) exactly two draws are required, (c) exactly four draws are required, (b) at least three draws are required, (a) exactly three draws are required. [Hwr: In part (c), consider the colour of the fourth marble drawn ] beth take their driving test. The chances that they pass are }, Sophia, Gabriel and Eliza 3 and $ respectively. (a) Find the probability that Sophia passes and the other two fail (b) By listing the possible outcomes for one of the girls passing and the other two failing, find the probability that exactly one of the three passes. (c) Ifonly one of them passes, find the probability that it is Gabriel,16. (a) Ifa coin is tossed repeatedly, find the probability of obtaining at least one head in: (3) two tosses, (ii) five tosses, (iii) ten tosses. (b) Write down the probability of obtaining at least one head in 1 tosses. (c) How many times would you need to toss a coin so that the probability of tossing at least one head is greater than 0:99992 17. (a) When rolling a die n times, what is the probability of not rolling a six? (b) Show that the probabilities of not rolling a six on 1, 2, 3 a GP, and write down the first term and common ratio. (c) How many times would you need to roll a die so that the probability of rolling at least one six was greater than 3? tosses of the coin form 18. One layer of tinting material on a window cuts out } of the sun’s UV rays, (a) What fraction would be cut out by using two layers? (b) How many layers would be required to cut out at least 4 of the sun's UV rays? 19. In a lottery, the probability of the jackpot being won in any draw is & (a) What is the probability that the jackpot prize will be won in each of four consecutive draws? (b) How many consecutive draws need to be made for there to be greater than 98% chance that at least one jackpot prize will have been won? 20. [This question and the next are best done by retelling the story of the experiment, as explained in the notes above.) Nick has five different pairs of socks to last the week, and they are scattered loose in his drawer. Each morning, he gets up before light and chooses two socks at random, Find the probability that he wears a matching pair: (a) on the first morning, (ec) on the third morning, _(e) every morning, (b) on the last morning, (d) the first two mornings, _(f) every morning but one.9. 10. uw 12. 13. 14. 16. ‘The numbers 1, 2, 3, d and 5 are each written on a card. ‘The cards are shuified and one card is drawn at random. The number is noted and the card is then returned to the pack. A second card is selected, and in this way a two-digit number is recorded. For example, a2 on the first draw and a 3 on the second results in the number 23. (a) What is the probability of: (i) the number 35 being recorded, Gi) an odd number being recorded? (b) Repeat the question if the first card is not returned to the pack before the second one is drawn A factory assembles calculators. Each caleulator requires a chip and a battery. It is known that 1% of chips and 4% of batteries are defective. Find the probability that a calculator selected at random will have at least one defective component. Alex and Julia are playing in a tennis tournament, ‘They will play each other twice and each has an equal chance of winning the first game. If Alex wins the first game his confidence increases, and his probability of winning the second game is increased to 0-55. If he loses the first game he loses heart so that his probability of winning the second game is reduced to 0-25. Find the probability that Alex wins exactly one game. In a raffle in which there are 200 tickets, the first prize is drawn and then the second prize is drawn without replacing the winning ticket. If you buy 15 tickets, find the probability that you win: (a) both prize: {b) at least one prize. The probability that a set of traffic lights will be green when you arrive at them is % A motorist drives through two sets of lights. Assuming that the two sets of traffic lights, are not synchronised, find the probability that: (a) both sets of lights will be green, (b) at least one set of lights will be green, ______ bevetopment A box contains ten chocolates, all of identical appearance. Three of the chocolates have caramel centres and the other seven have mint centres. Hugo randomly selects and cats three chocolates from the box. Find the probability that: (a) the first chocolate Hugo eats is caramel, (b) Hugo eats three mint chocolates, (c) Hugo eats exactly one caramel chocolate, (4) Hugo eats at least two caramel chocolates. In a bag there are four green, three blue and five red discs, (a) Two dises are drawn at random, and the first dise is not replaced before the second disc is drawn. Find the probability of drawing: (i) two red discs, (iv) a blue dise on the first draw, (ii) one red and one blue dise, {v) two dises of the same colour, (iii) at least one green disc, (vi) two differently coloured discs. (b) Repeat the above questions if the first disc is replaced before the second dise is drawn Max and Jack each throw adie. Find the probability that: {a) they do not throw the same number, (b) the number thrown by Max is greater than the number thrown by Jack, (c) the numbers they throw differ by three, (d) the product of the numbers is even17. 18. 19. 20. 21. 22. 2s. 24, In basketball, the chance of a girl making a basket from the free-throw line is 0-7 and the chance of a boy making the basket is 0-65. ‘Therefore if a boy and a girl are seleeted at random, the chance that at least one of them will shoot basket is 1-35. Explain the problem with this argument ‘A game is played in which two coloured dice are rolled once. ‘The six faces of the black die are numbered 5,7, 8, 10, 11, 14. The six faces of the white die are numbered 3, 6, 9, 12, 18, 15. The player wins if the number on the black die is bigger than the number on the white die. {a) Calculate the probability of a player winning the game. (b) Calculate the probability that a player will lose at least once in two consecutive games, (c) How many games must be played before you have a 90% chance of winning at least ‘one game? Two dice are rolled. A three appears on at least one of the dice. Find the probability that the sum of the uppermost, faces is greater than seven. Ina game, two dice are rolled and the score given is the maximum of the two numbers on the uppermost faces. For example, if the dice show a three and a five, the score is a five. (a) Find the probability that you seore a one in a single throw of the two dice. (b) What is the probability of scoring three consecutive ones in thrce rolls of the dice? ©) (d) Given that one of the dice shows a three, what is the probability of getting a score greater than five? nd the probability of a six in a single roll of the dice. [A set of four cards contains two jacks, a queen and a king, Bob selects one card and then, without replacing it, selects another. Find the probability that (a) both Bob's cards are jack: (b) at least one of Bob’s cards is a jack, (©) given that one of Bob’s cards is a jack, the other one is also, A twenty-sided die has the numbers from 1 to 20 on its faces. (a) If it is rolled twice, what is the probability that the same number appears on the uppermost face each time? (b) If it is rolled three times, what is the probability that the number 15 appears on the uppermost face (i) exactly twice, (ji) at most once? In each game of Sic Bo, three regular six-sided dice are thrown once. (a) Ina single game, what is the probability that all three dice show six? (>) What is the probability that exactly two of the dice show six? (c) What is the probability that exactly two of the dice show the same number? (d) What is the probability of rolling three different numbers on the dice? repeatedly until the sum she wins. If the sum il the sum Shadia has invented a game for one person. She throws two d of the two numbers shown is either six or eight. If the sum is si is eight, she loses. If the sum is any other number, she continues to throw u is six or eight. (a) What is the probability that she wins on the first throw? (b) What is the probability that a second throw is needed? (c) Find an expression for the probability that Shadia wins on her first, second or third throw. (d) Calculate the probability that Shadia wins the game.Exercise 1 C (Page 406) 1a) 3 Sa Op Oe Oa Oa 2@) ts Way © 5 re wi oz oF MOS OL HZ OH BOS O® of oF oF 6a + is, cn) 2 Oe ss xebn 1 ©) ie) Ge Too) Toa sa) 5 Ww) 5 OM My i) 9a) The argument is invalid, because the events ‘liking classical music’ and ‘playing a classical in- strument’ are not independent. One would expect that most of those playing a classical instrument would like classical music, whereas a smaller pro- portion of those not playing a classical instrument would like classical music. The probability that a student does both cannot be discovered from the given data — one would have to go back and do another survey. (o) The argument is invalid, because the events ‘being prime’ and ‘being odd’ are not independent — two out of the three odd numbers less than 7 are prime, but only one out of the three such even numbers is prime. The correct argument is that the odd prime numbers amongst the numbers 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6 are 3and 5, hence the probability that the die shows an odd prime number is 3 (© The teams in the competition may not be of equal ability, and factors such as home-ground advantage may also affect the outcome of a game, hence assign- ing a probability of } to winning each of the seven games is unjustified. Also, the outeomes of sue- cessive games are not independent — the confi- dence gained after winning a game may improve a team’s chances in the next one, a loss may ad- versely affect their chances, or a team may receive injuries in one game leading to a depleted team in the next. ‘The argument really can't be cor- rected. _(@) ‘This argument is valid. ‘The coin is normal, not biased, and tossed coins do not re- member their previous history, so the next toss is completely unaffected by the previous string of heads. 10 HHH, HEM, HMH, MHH, HMM, MHM, MMH, MMM_ @a) p(HHH) = 0-9 = 0.729 ) 0-001 (¢) p(HMM) = 0-9 x 0-17 = 0-009 (@) p(HMM)+p(MHM)+p(MMH) = 3x 0.009 = 0-027 @) 0-081 0-243 te OS OF Mae Oa Ow OF 2 mo OF aa) p(CCCCC) = (3)° = she ®) © p 3)° = a5 3135 © fms © ie O as 130) grass) iy Wa 3 OF OF WS 8a) FO Oe oom $ me iy HS wi-p= 14 ma (3)" ma=s,r=% @ 13 18) 35) IT 19) Tess) 233 20a) $ (b) 4. Retell as ‘Nick begins by picking out two socks for the last morning and setting them aside’, (e) 4. Retell as ‘Nick begins by picking out two socks for the third morning and setting them aside’. @ 2; ©) azzisxg ™ zerovant m2 w 48 10 4.96% 110-35 2a) gag) SS 13) 3) 3 WS Oe OD OH woo & OS EM; ME WE 2, 3,31 38 47 Tad) 24 9+ 4) a> 72 a 2 ® 3 ©) wf 17 The chance that at least one of them will shoot a basket is 1—p(they both miss). The boy miss- ing and the girl missing are independent events, The correct answer is 0-895. wef OF © 4 ea 200) 35 aes OO aay Sm E 5 221) 35 OMY shoo | Goo a 23a) ig Oe @F ; 2a) ss @ &+8x d+ «ed wt