Sample Space Sample Space

2.1
Chapter 2 Ex. Roll a die
The sample space of an experiment,
Sample Spaces denoted , is the set of all possible Outcomes: landing with a 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, or
Probability and Events
outcomes of that experiment. 6 face up.
Sample Space: ={1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}

Events Relations from Set Theory Relations from Set Theory Relations from Set Theory

1. The union of two events A and B is 2. The intersection of two events A and 3. The complement of an event A is
An event is any collection (subset) of
the event consisting of all outcomes B is the event consisting of all the set of all outcomes in that are
outcomes contained in the sample space
that are either in A or in B. outcomes that are in both A and B. not contained in A.
. An event is simple if it consists of
exactly one outcome and compound if it
consists of more than one outcome. Notation: A B Notation: A′
Notation: A B
Read: A and B
Read: A or B

Events Mutually Exclusive

Mutually Exclusive
Ex. Rolling a die. S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} Ex. When rolling a die, if event A = {2, 4, 6}
When A and B have no outcomes in (evens) and event B = {1, 3, 5} (odds), then A
Let A = {1, 2, 3} and B = {1, 3, 5} and B are mutually exclusive.
common, they are mutually exclusive
A B = {1, 2,3,5} or disjoint events
Ex. When drawing a single card from a
A B = {1,3} standard deck of cards, if event A = {heart,
diamond} (red) and event B = {spade, club}
A′ = {4,5, 6} (black), then A and B are mutually exclusive.

Axioms of Probability Properties of Probability Ex. A card is drawn from a well-shuffled

2.2 deck of 52 playing cards. What is the
Axiom 1 P( A) ≥ 0 for any event A probability that it is a queen or a heart?
For any event A, P ( A ) = 1 − P( A′).
Axioms, Axiom 2 P( ) = 1
Q = Queen and H = Heart
If all Ai’s are mutually exclusive, then If A and B are mutually exclusive, then
Interpretations, and k
P ( A B ) = 0. P(Q) =
4 13
, P( H ) = , P(Q H) =
1
Axiom 3 P( A1 A2 ... Ak ) = P( Ai) 52 52 52
Properties of Probability (finite set)
∞
i =1
P(Q H ) = P(Q) + P( H ) − P(Q H)
For any two events A and B,
P( A1 A2 ...) = P( Ai ) 4 13 1 16 4
(infinite set) i =1 P ( A B ) = P( A) + P( B) − P( A B). = + −
52 52 52
= =
52 13
 Product Rule Permutations Factorial
2.3 If the first element or object of an Any ordered sequence of k objects For any positive integer m, m! is read
ordered pair can be used in n1 ways, taken from a set of n distinct objects is “m factorial” and is defined by
Counting Techniques and for each of these n1 ways the called a permutation of size k of the m ! = m(m − 1) ⋅ ... ⋅ (2)(1).
second can be selected n2 ways, then objects. Also, 0! = 1.
the number of pairs is n1n2. Note, now we can write:
Notation: Pk,n
** Note that this generalizes to k Pk ,n = n(n − 1) ⋅ ... ⋅ (n − k + 1) n!
elements (k – tuples) Pk ,n =
( n − k )!

Ex. A boy has 4 beads – red, white, blue, Ex. A boy has 4 beads – red, white, blue, Ex. Three balls are selected at
and yellow. How different ways can three of
Combinations and yellow. How different ways can three of random without replacement from the
the beads be strung together in a row? the beads be chosen to trade away? jar below. Find the probability that
Given a set of n distinct objects, any
unordered subset of size k of the one ball is red and two are black.
objects is called a combination.
This is a permutation since the beads will This is a combination since they are
be in a row (order). n chosen without regard to order.
Notation: or Ck ,n 2 3
4! k 4 4! ⋅
P3,4 = = 4! = 24 =
4!
= =4 1 2 2 ⋅3 3
( 4 − 3) ! 3 3!( 4 − 3 )! 3! = = =
n 8 56 28
n!
number total 24 different ways = total number 4 different ways 3
selected k k !( n − k ) ! selected

Examples for Section 2.3 : Counting Examples for Sec.2.3 Examples for Sec.2.3
Examples for Sec.2.3
Techniques • Example3: There are 8 TA'
s are available, 4 questions need • Example 5: A rental car service facility has 10 foreign cars •An Economic Department at a state university with five faculty members-
to be marked. How many ways for Prof. To choose 1 TA for and 15 domestic cars waiting to be serviced on a particular Anderson, Box, Cox, Carter, and Davis-must select two of its members to
• Example1: A house owner doing some remodelling serve on a program review committee. Because the work will be time-
each question? How many ways if there are 8 questions? Sat. morning. Mechanics can only work on 6 of them. If 6
requires the services of both a plumbing contractor and were chosen randomly, what' s the probabilty that 3 are
consuming, no one is anxious to serve, so it is decided that the
Example 4: In a box, there are 10 tennis balls labeled number representative will be selected by putting five slips of paper in a box,
an electrical contractor; there are 12 plumbing •
domestic 3 are foreign? What's the probabilty that at least 3
1 to 10. mixing them, and selecting two.
contractors and 9 electrical contractors, in how many domestic cars are chosen? •What is the probability that both Anderson and Box will be selected?
ways can the contractors be chosen? • 1.Randomly choose 4 with replacement • Example 6: If a permutation of the word “white” is slelcted ( : List the equally likely outcomes.)
• Example 2: A family requires the services of both an • 2.Choose 4 one by one without replacement at random, find the probability that the permutation •What is the probability that at least one of the two members whose name

obstetrician and a pediatricion. There are two 3.grab 4 balls in one time begins with C is selected?
• • 1. begins with a consonant
accessible clinics, each having two obstetricians and •If the five faculty members have taught for 3, 6, 7, 10, and 14 years,

three pediatricions, family needs to select both doctor • What is the probability that the ball labelled as number 1 is • 2. ends with a vowel respectively, at the university, what is the probability that the two chosen
in the same clinic, in how many ways this can be chosen? representatives have at least 15 years’ teaching experience at the
• 3. has the consonant and vowels alternating university?
done?

Conditional Probability
Example 1 The Law of Total Probability
For any two events A and B with P(B) > 0,
2.4 • Two machines produce the same type of products. Machine A
produces 8, of which 2 are identified as defective. Machine B
the conditional probability of A given If the events A1, A2,…, Ak be mutually exclusive
produces 10, of which 1 is defective. The sales manager that B has occurred is defined by and exhaustive events. The for any other event
Conditional Probability
randomly selected 1 out of these 18 for a demonstration. B,
What'
s the probability he selected product from machine A. P ( A ∩ B) k
P ( A | B) =
•

• What'
s the probability that the selected product is defective? P ( B) P ( B) = P( B | Ai ) P ( Ai )
i =1
• If the selected product turned to be defective, what'
s the
probability that this product is from machine A? Which can be written:
P ( A ∩ B) = P ( B) ⋅ P ( A | B)
 Ex. A store stocks light bulbs from three suppliers.
Example 2 Bayes’ Theorem Suppliers A, B, and C supply 10%, 20%, and 70% of the
bulbs respectively. It has been determined that company
Let A1, A2, …, An be a collection of k mutually A’s bulbs are 1% defective while company B’s are 3%
• Four individuals will donate blood , if only the A+ type
blood is desired and only one of these 4 people
exclusive and exhaustive events with P(Ai) > 0 defective and company C’s are 4% defective. If a bulb is 2.5
for i = 1, 2,…,k. Then for any other event B for selected at random and found to be defective, what is the
actually has this type, without knowing their blood probability that it came from supplier B?
which P(B) > 0 given by
type in advance, if we select the donors randomly,
what' s the probability that at least three individuals Let D = defective
Independence
must be typed to obtain the desired type? ( ) (
P Aj P B | Aj ) P ( B) P ( D | B)
( )
P Aj | B = k
P ( B | D) =
P ( A) P ( D | A) + P ( B ) P ( D | B ) + P ( C ) P ( D | C )
P ( Ai ) P ( B | Ai )
0.2 ( 0.03)
i =1 = ≈ 0.1714
0.1( 0.01) + 0.2 ( 0.03) + 0.7 ( 0.04)
j = 1, 2..., k So about 0.17

Independent Events
Properties of independence Independent Events
Independent Events
P(B|A)=P(B) Events A and B are independent events
Events A1, ..., An are mutually independent if
•
•

Two event A and B are independent if and only if

• If A and B are independent, then (1) A'and • for every k (k=2,3,...,n) and every subset of
events if P( A | B) = P( A). B (2) A and B'(3) A'and B'are all
independent P ( A ∩ B ) = P( A) P( B) • indices i1,i2,...,ik,
• Question: A and B are mutually exclusive
Otherwise A and B are dependent. events, are they independent? ** Note: this generalizes to more • P( Ai1 | Ai2 | ... |Aik) = P( Ai1) P (Ai2 ) ... P(Aik)
than two independent events.

Example
•An executive on a business trip must rent a car in each of two
different cities. Let denote the event that the executive is
offered a free upgrade in the first city and represent the
analogous event for the second city. Suppose that ( ) = .3,
( ) = .4, and that and B are independent events.
•What is the probability that the executive is offered a free
upgrade in at least one of the two cities?
•If the executive is offered a free upgrade in at least one of the
two cities, what is the probability that such an offer was made
only in the first city?
•If the executive is not offered a free upgrade in the first city,
what is the probability of not getting a free upgrade in the second
city? Explain your reasoning.