Work Sampling
Work Sampling
z Example:
z 1000 observations over 7 weeks
z In 700 observations machine is running
z In 300 observations machine is idle or not running,
z Machine works 70% of time, idle 30%.
z The accuracy of the data determined by work
sampling
p g depends
p on
z the number of observations
z and the period over which the random observations
are taken.
z Work sampling
p g may y identify
y the fact that certain
operators spend a large portion of their time
waiting
g for work,, or p
performing gppaperwork
p tasks,,
or even performing activities that are not
included in their jjob descriptions.
p
z One off the
O th basic
b i foundations
f d ti off statistical
t ti ti l sampling
li
theory is the concept that the larger the sample size, the
results will be better or more accurate
accurate.
z In work sampling
sampling, a sufficient number of observations
must be made to be sure that the results accurately
summarize the work p performed. There are statistical
formulas to help determine how many observations
should be made.
z In this case we can say that if we take a large sample at random we can be
confident that in 95 percent of the cases our observations will fall within ±
1.96 σp
Work Sampling
p g
z Probability of such binary event happening m
outt off n times,
ti is
i determined
d t i db by th
the binomial
bi i l
distribution:
P(m) = n! pm (1-p)m-n
m! (n-m)!
( )
n = # obs, m = # events, p = prob of event, q=1-p
Prob of 0,1,2,3,4 heads in 4 tosses
n! pm (1-p)n-m / m! (n-m)!
0 4 0.0625
1 3 0.250
2 2 0.375
3 1 0.250
4 0 0 0625
0.0625
Normal Approximation
#H #T P(x)
( )
0 4 0.0625
1 3 0 250
0.250
2 2 0.375
3 1 0 250
0.250
4 0 0.0625
As n → ∞,
∞ binomial → normal
normal,
mean = p, std. dev. s = √pq/n
z Determination of sample size
z As well as defining
g the confidence level for our
observations we have to decide on the margin of
error that we can allow for these observations.
z After the work elements are defined, the number of observations for the
desired accuracy at the desired confidence level must be determined.
The sample size is dependent on the percentage of time believed to be
spent on the major work element
element.
z If a reasonable guess cannot be made, then a trial study of perhaps 20
to 40 observations should be made to get an estimate of this portion.
ese initial
These t a obse
observations
at o s sshould
ou d be included
c uded with
t tthe
e rest
est o
of tthe
e
observations taken during the rest of the work study.
z The next and perhaps the easiest part of any work sampling study is the
actual recording of the raw data
data. Although this recording can be
performed by anyone, it is desirable that a trained analyst be employed.
z It is also very important that the observations be made at exactly the
same location everyy time. Failure to be reliable in this manner mayy bias
the results.
10. Summarize the Data
s2 = [∑yj2/nj–np2]/n(m-1) =
s=0 0.086
086 and p=14/50 = 0 0.28
28
95% confident that interval:
28 ± 1.96(8.6)
1 96(8 6) or 28 ± 16.4%
16 4% ((correct)
t)
Determining Observation
Frequency
z The frequency of the observation depends
depends, for the
most part,
on the
th number
b off observations
b ti required
i d
and the time available to develop the data.
z The longer
Th l the
th overallll study,
t d the
th better
b tt ththe
chance of observing average conditions.
Making random observations
z To ensure that our observations are in fact made at random, we can use a
random table such as the one in the table in the following page.
z Various types of random table exist, and these can be used in different
ways. In our case let us assume that we shall carry out our observations
d i ad
during day shift
hift off eight
i ht h
hours, ffrom 7 a.m. to
t 3 p.m. An
A eight-hour
i ht h d
day h
has
480 minutes. These may be divided into 48 ten-minute periods.
z We can start
W t t by
b choosing
h i any number b att random
d ffrom our table,
t bl ffor example
l
by closing our eyes and placing a pencil point somewhere on the table. Let
us assume that in this case we pick, by simple chance, the number 11 which
is in the second block
block, fourth column
column, fourth row (table 12).
12)
z We now choose any number between 1 and 10. Assume that we choose the
number 2; we now go down the column picking out every second reading
and noting it down, as shown below (if we had chosen the number 3, we
should pick out every third figure, and so on).
z 11 38 45 87 68 20 11 26 49 05
z Looking at these numbers, we find that we have to discard
87 68 and 49 because they are too high (since we have
87,
only 48 ten-minute periods, any number above 48 has to be
discarded).
z These four numbers are within the desired range and have
not appeared before. Our final selection may now be
arranged numerically and the times of observation
th
throughout
h t the
th eight-hour
i ht h day
d worked k d out.
t Thus
Th our
smallest number (05) represents the fifth ten-minute period
after the work began at 7 a.m. Thus our first observation
will
ill be
b att 7.50
7 50 a.m., and
d so on (table
(t bl 13).
13)
Frequency and Timing of Observations