Int. j. econ. env. geol.

Vol:2(1) 19-29

Pakistan’s Earthquake and Tsunami Hazards

Potential Impact on Infrastructure
GEORGE PARARAS-CARAYANNIS

1741 Ala Moana Blvd. No. 70,

Honolulu, Hawaii, 96815, USA
[email protected]

Abstract. Interaction of the Indian, Arabian and Eurasian tectonic plates has resulted in the formation of major active
fault systems in South Asia. Compression along the tectonic boundaries results in thrust or reverse type of faulting
and zones of crustal deformation characterized by high seismic activity and continuing Orogenesis. The more intense
seismic activity occurs near regions of thrust faulting which is developing at the Himalayan foothills. In northern
Pakistan, the Hindu Kush Mountains converge with the Karakoram Range to form a part of the Himalayan mountain
system. Northern, western as well as southern Pakistan, Kashmir and northern India and Afghanistan are along such
zones of high seismic activity. In Pakistan, most of the earthquakes occur in the north and western regions along the
boundary of the Indian tectonic plate with the Iranian and Afghan micro-plates. The active zone extends from the
Makran region in the southwest to the Hazara-Kashmir syntaxial bend in the north. Southwest Pakistan is vulnerable
to both earthquake and tsunami hazards. In 2005, earthquakes devastated northern Pakistan and Kashmir and severely
affected the cities of Muzaffarabad, Islamadad and Rawalpindi, causing severe destruction to the infrastructure of the
northern region. A major earthquake along an extensive transform fault system in 1935 destroyed the city Quetta and
the adjoining region. A major earthquake along the northern Arabian sea in 1945 generated a very destructive tsunami
along the coasts of Baluchistan and Sindh Provinces. The region near Karachi is vulnerable as it is located near four
major faults where destructive earthquakes and tsunamis have occurred in the past. Given Pakistan’s vulnerability and
extensive infrastructure development in recent years, the present study reviews briefly the earthquake and tsunami
risk factors and assesses the impact that such disasters can have on the country’s critical infrastructure - which includes
nuclear facilities and power reactors.

Introduction and security of Pakistan’s nuclear complex is very

vulnerable to earthquakes and collateral disasters,
Pakistan is vulnerable to many natural and man-made particularly for the facilities located near the Hazara-
disasters that can impact on people and infrastructure Kashmir syntaxial bend. The present paper provides a
and severely slow down the country’s economic cursory assessment of risk factors of potential earthquakes
development. Floods, earthquakes, landslides and and tsunamis that could affect Pakistan and slow down
tsunamis are among the important natural hazards. its socio-economic development. A specific risk
Flooding and earthquakes have had the greatest impact assessment analysis of important infrastructure facilities
in recent years. Floods in 2010 killed over 1,100 people will require a detailed study of local conditions and of
and resulted in the displacement of hundreds of thousands. potential local hazards. The present analysis includes
Although climate change has been blamed to be the cause only a brief review of the country’s overall tectonic setting
of the extensive flooding, over development and the and the impact of past earthquake and tsunami disasters.
timber business, especially in the Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa
region, have devastated watershed areas which make Tectonic Setting - Geological Instability - Regional
much easier the generation of flash floods. Additionally, Seismic Activity
earthquakes and landslides have had a significant impact
on Pakistan’s roads, railroad air networks and other Approximately 20 million years ago India was connected
infrastructure. Although tsunamis do not occur frequently, to the south-eastern tip of Africa. Forces within the earth’s
the historic record indicates that their re-currence could mantle caused the development of a rift in the crust, thus
have an important impact on the country’s shipping and separating the Indo-Australian tectonic plate from the
overall economy. The Makran subduction zone in the continent of Africa. For millions of years, this great
northern Arabian sea is a potential source region for large tectonic plate drifted in a north/northeast direction. Several
tsunamigenic earthquakes that can affect Pakistan’s entire millions of years later, its leading deep sea-floor edge
coastline and the two of its international ports - Karachi began colliding with the Eurasian tectonic plate. The
and Port Muhammad bin Qasim, Karachi is vulnerable migration and collision broke and folded the earth's crust,
to earthquakes since it is bounded by numerous faults creating fractured microplates, great faults and subduction
where large events occurred in the past. Finally, the safety zones – also developing a diffuse zone of seismicity and

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deformation along the entire south Asia region (Fig. 1). region, occurred along the Chaman Fault (Pakistan
Meteorological Department, 2005). Other major thrust
Compression along the tectonic boundaries resulted in zones exist along the Kirthar, Sulaiman and salt mountain
thrust or reverse type of faulting and upward displacement ranges.
of crustal material. Such process of Orogenesis formed
the Himalayan Mountain Range as well as the Pamir, The Main Mantle Thrust System (MMT)
Karakoram, the Hindu Kush ranges and the Tibetan
Plateau. Over millions of years, the complex kinematic The Main Mantle Thrust (MMT) system parallels the
earth movements created the active fault systems that Chatham Fault System on the east side of the Pishin
now traverse Pakistan, Kashmir as well as northern India Basin (Fig. 2). Both the MKT and the MMT turn eastward
and Afghanistan. In northern Pakistan, the orogenetic in the Hazara-Kashmir syntaxial bend near the Main
processes created the Hindu Kush Mountains, which Boundary Thrust (MBT), the region of major tectonic
converge with the Karakoram Range, a part of the plate collision (Fig. 2). The October 8, 2005 earthquake
Himalayan mountain system. Zones of high seismic occurred near this active seismic zone in northern
activity developed in northern India and in western, Pakistan in the Himalayan foothills. Its focal mechanism
northern and southern Pakistan, as well as in Tibet, and slip and strike components are consistent with the
Afghanistan and Iran (European Geophysical Society. compressive type of thrust faulting which is characteristic
2003). Presently, the more intense seismic activity occurs for the region and has resulted in folding and the formation
near regions of thrust faulting which developed along of extensive anticlinal ridges in the vicinity of
the boundary of the Indian tectonic plate at the Himalayan Muzaffarabad.
foothills in both northern Pakistan and northern India, as
well as along the western region boundary with the Iranian Major Faults near Karachi
and Afghan micro-plates (Fig. 2). Pakistan vulnerability
to earthquakes derives from the movement of the Indian Four major faults exist in and around Karachi, other parts
tectonic plate in a north/northeast direction at a fast rate of deltaic Indus, and along the southern coast of Makran
of about 40 mm/yr (1.6 inches/year). (Pararas-Carayannis, 2006). The first of these is the Allah
Bund Fault (Fig. 3). It traverses Shahbundar, Jah, Steel
The Chaman Thrust Fault System

The Chaman Thrust Fault system is a continuation on

land of an extensive transform fault system in the Arabian
Sea known as the Owen Fault Zone (Lawrence et al.,
1992). This zone forms the boundary between the Arabian
and the Iranian micro-plate, where the former subducts
beneath the latter. Thrust zones run along the Kirthar,
Sulaiman and Salt ranges. The Chaman Fault is a major
fracture, which begins near Kalat in the northern Makran
range of the Baluchistan Province, passes near Quetta
and extends along Pakistan's western frontier with
Afghanistan and continues in a north-northeastern
direction to Kabul - after branching off to form the Main
Karakoram Thrust (MKT) System (Fig 2).

The great Quetta earthquake (M.7) of 31 May 1935,

which devastated the city of Quetta and the adjoining

Fig 2. The 2005 earthquake occurred in the Hazara-

Kashmir syntaxial bend near the Main Mantle Thrust
(MMT), the Main Karakoram Thrust (MKT) and the
Main Boundary Thrust (MBT) (Modified base map of
Fig 1. South Asia seismicity (USGS) Pakistan Geological Survey – after Bakht, 2000).
20
Mills and continues to the eastern parts of Karachi – occurred on these faults in the past but also in recent
ending near Cape Monz. Earthquakes along this particular times.
fault have been responsible for considerable destruction
in the past (Fig. 3). For example, a major earthquake in The Makran Accretionary Prism and Coastal Orocline
the 13th century destroyed Bhanbhor. Another major
earthquake in 1896 was responsible for extensive damage Active tectonic convergence of the India plate with the
in Shahbundar. Arabian and Iranian microplates of the Eurasian tectonic
block has created a tectonic margin. The plates converge
The second major fault near Karachi is an extension of at an estimated rate of about 30 to 50 mm/y (Platt et al.,
the one that begins near Rann of the Kutch region. The 1988). The northward movement and subduction of the
third is the Bhuj fault which ends into Arabian sea near Oman oceanic lithosphere beneath the Iranian micro-
the Makran coast. Finally, the fourth major fault near plate at a very shallow angle of subduction of about 20
Karachi is located in the lower Dadu district, near degrees, has dragged Tertiary marine sediments into an
Surajani. A major thrust fault which runs along the accretionary prism at the southern edge of the Asian
southern coast of the Makran coast and parts of deltaic continent (Pararas-Carayannis, 2004) - thus forming the
Indus is believed to be of the same character as the west Makran coastal region, a belt of highly folded and densely
Coast fault along the coast of Maharashtra, where a faulted mountain ridges which parallel the present
tsunami may have been generated in 1524, near Dabhol shoreline. The Makran Orocline is shown in Fig. 4 and
(Pararas-Carayannis, 2006 and 2006). Earthquakes in a NASA satellite photo (Fig. 5). Major tectonic elements
along this particular zone of deformation were formed
during the Cenozoic and Mesozoic eras.

To the west of the accretionary prism, continental collision

of about 10 mm/yr has formed the Zagros fold and thrust
belt. To the east, the area comprises of a narrow belt,
which truncates against the Chaman transform fault - -
an extensive system that extends on land in a north-
northeast direction along Pakistan's frontier with
Afghanistan. The zone extends from the Makran coastal
region in south-west Pakistan to the Hazara-Kashmir
syntaxial bend in the north (Fig. 2) and is characterized
by high seismic activity. The coastline of Pakistan along
the Arabian Sea extends for about 1,050 km with 800 km
belonging to the Baluchistan Province and 250 km to the
Sindh Province. The Makran coastal range forms a narrow
strip of mountains along about 75 percent of the total
coast length, or about 800 km. The steep mountains rise
to an elevation of up to 1,500 m (5,000 ft).

The Makran coast is rugged and tectonic in origin with

Fig 3. Faults near Karachi – past and recent earthquakes uplifted terraces, cliffs and headlands. The entire coastline

Fig 4. Makran Orocline

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 present accretionary front in the offshore region of Makran
has been buried by sediments and does not have much
of a morphological relief as other trenches around the
world's oceans.

The great Makran earthquake of 28 November 1945 is

an example of the size of earthquakes this fault can
produce. Although infrequent, large earthquakes do occur
from time to time along the Makran coast and appear to
be preceded by increasing activity of smaller events. For
example, for ten years prior to the 1945 earthquake, there
was a concentration of seismic activity in the vicinity of
its epicenter. This quake generated a destructive tsunami
in the northern Arabian sea. The tsunami, its generation
mechanism and potential for future events, are examined
in a subsequent section.

Earthquake Vulnerability

Fig 5. NASA Satellite photo of a section of the Makran Figure 6 illustrates the seismicity of Pakistan from 1990
rugged and tectonic coastline showing uplifted terraces, to 2000. As indicated, most earthquakes in Pakistan occur
headlands, sandy beaches, mud flats, rocky cliffs, bays in the north and western sections of the country along
and deltas. Numerous mud volcanoes are present along the boundary of the Indian tectonic plate with the Iranian
the shores. and Afghan micro-plates (Fig. 1, 2, 6). Numerous
earthquakes occur along the Chaman Fault System, which
is characterized by extreme sediment accretion (White – as indicated - runs along Pakistan's western frontier
and Loudon, 1983; Platt et al., 1985; Minshull et al., with Afghanistan from Kalat in the northern Makran
1992, Fruehn et al., 1997). It is one of largest sediment range, past Quetta and then on to Kabul, Afghanistan
accretionary wedges on earth, with up to 7 km of sediments (Fig. 2). Also, a fault system runs along the Makran coast
deposited in the Gulf of Oman to the west and major and is believed to be of the same nature as the west Coast
rivers contributing vast amount of sediment to the offshore fault system along the coast of Maharashtra in India. As
region in the east. The accretionary complex is more than indicated, there is an active subduction zone off the
900 km long, has an east-west orientation and is bounded Makran coast in the north Arabian sea. The great 1945
on both sides by large transform faults associated with earthquake – occurred in this offshore region.
tectonic plate boundaries. The significance of
sedimentation to tsunami generation is examined at a
subsequent section.

The Makran Subduction Zone

The tectonic collisions have also created an active

subduction zone along the boundary of the Arabian plate
in the north Arabian sea. An east-west trench has been
formed south of the Makran coast and a volcanic arc has
emerged - specifically the Chagai volcanic arc, which
extends into Iran. The Koh-e-Sultan volcano and other
volcanic cones in the Chagai area are side products of
the active subduction (Schoppel, 1977). The major fault
system along the offshore Makran coast (Baluchistan
and Sindh Provinces) is the result of the active subduction
where major earthquakes have occurred in the past
(Dorostian and Gheitanchi, 2003). However, the seismicity
of the Makran region is relatively low compared to the
neighboring regions, which have been devastated regularly
by large earthquakes (Jacob and Quittmeyer, 1979). The
morphology of the region is further complicated by the Fig 6. Northward movement of the Indian tectonic plate
extensive sedimentation, which takes place as a result of has resulted in major fault systems in Pakistan, Kashmir
erosion of Himalayan mountain ranges and the numerous and northern India. Epicenter of the 8 October 2005
rivers flowing into the north Arabian sea. A very thick earthquake (Modified base map after Jadoon and
sedimentary column enters the subduction zone (White Khurshid, 1996). Seismicity of the region from 1990-
and Louden, 1983), so the trench associated with the 2000 (modified USGS graphic).
22
Pakistan’s earthquake risk factors and vulnerability can The more recent event in the same general area was a
be best illustrated by reviewing some of the major events 6.4 magnitude earthquake in northwestern Kashmir on
that occurred recently and in the past and the impact they 20 November 2002. This quake affected the same region
had in different regions of the country. The following is and was widely felt in Islamabad, to the southwest of the
only a brief summary of the more recent earthquakes, epicenter. However, the death toll in northern Pakistan
which resulted in deaths, damage, and destruction of was by far lower. Only 17 people died and 65 more were
infrastructure. injured. However, the devastating 2005 earthquake had
been preceded by a pair of earthquakes of 5.5 and 5.4
The Earthquake of October 8, 2005 in Northern magnitude events in February 2004 in northern Pakistan.
Pakistan These smaller magnitude quakes killed at least 21 people
and injured dozens more. Even though these events were
On Saturday, October 8, 2005 at 03:50:38 (UTC), a of relatively small magnitude, hundreds of homes built
massive earthquake struck Pakistan and parts of India of mud, stone and timber were destroyed in the rugged,
and Afghanistan. Its epicenter was at 34.402 degrees mountainous area about 90 miles northwest of Islamabad.
north, 73.560 degrees east, about 90 km north-northeast
of Islamabad (Fig. 2, 7). The moment magnitude was Quetta Earthquake of May 31, 1935
measured to be 7.6 (U.S. Geological Survey), 7.5 (Pakistan
Meteorological Service) and 7.8 (Japan Meteorological The historic record shows that up to the October 2005
Agency). A final estimate of the moment magnitude was earthquake in northern Pakistan, the largest quake had
Mw7.7. The earthquake was relatively shallow and thus been near Quetta along the Chaman fault - a very active
had greater intensity and destructiveness. According to seismic region in the Baluchistan province (Thompson,
the U.S. Geological Survey the focal depth was at about 1936; Pinhey, 1938; Wadia, 1938; Ramanathan and
10 km. More than 20 aftershocks ranging from 4.5 to 6.3 Mukherji, 1938; Pararas-Carayannis, 2007). The Quetta
in magnitude struck the area in 18 hours following the earthquake, as it was named, occurred on 30 May 1935
main shock (Pararas-Carayannis, 2005). (19:00:46.9 UTC; 31 May 1935 local date), had a Moment
magnitude (Mw) of 8.1 - revised from a previously
This was the strongest earthquake in Pakistan during the assigned Richter magnitude of M7.7. Its epicenter was
last hundred years and by far the most destructive disaster at 27.4 N and 88.75 E. and its focal depth was 17 km
in the region. Strong ground motions were felt in major (Fig. 8).
cities in Pakistan and India, including Islamabad, Lahore
The city of Quetta was completely devastated. There was
and New Delhi. Close to 80,000 people were killed and
extensive destruction and thousands of deaths in Quetta,
at least 50,000 more were injured in the northern areas
Mastung and in all the villages between Quetta and Kalat.
of Pakistan and at Kashmir and Jammu-Kashmir. There
Official reports indicate that 35,000 people were killed;
were numerous deaths also in Islamabad and Rawalpindi.
although some estimates of up to 50,000 were
A 10-story residential building (known as the Margalla
subsequently provided. No foreshocks occurred prior to
Tower) collapsed completely in Islamabad killing most
the main earthquake but there were numerous aftershocks
of the occupants. Thousands of houses were destroyed.
that lasted until October 1935. The strongest – with
Muzaffarabad, was severely affected and almost half of
magnitude Mw 5.8 - occurred on June 2, 1935 and caused
its homes were damaged or destroyed. The Jammu-
additional damage in Mastung, Maguchar and Kalat, but
Kashmir region was severely damaged with hundreds of
dead and injured, mostly in the town of Uri.

No earthquake of similar strength as that of 2005 had

occurred in northern Pakistan or Kashmir in recent years.

Fig 7. Physical map of northern Pakistan and of the

Kashmir region affected by the 2005 earthquake. Fig 8. The 1935 Quetta earthquake.
23
not at Quetta. Some damage from the aftershock occurred destruction in the towns of Dharamshala and Palampur
at Nushki. There were unusual phenomena associated (Middlemiss, 1910). In the Punjab plains in northern
with this earthquake. According to reports, bright lights India (now northern Pakistan), there was slight to
were observed prior to the main shock particularly one considerable damage. There were reports of sand vents
west of Quetta. Near Kalat flashes of light were observed and earthquake fountains in the vicinity of Bijnor, Khanki,
along the flanks of the mountains. Haridwar and Roorkee. Buildings were seriously damaged
and some even partially collapsed at many major cities
Makran Earthquake of November 28, 1945 in the region, such as Amritsar, Lahore, Jullunder, Sialkot,
Jammu, Rawalpindi and Amballa. The Lahore Town hall
On 28 November 1945 (at 21:56 UTC, 03:26 IST), a was damaged and so was the Lahore Railway station and
great earthquake (Mw8.0) - off Pakistan's Makran coast the Mayo hospital (Middlemiss, 1910).
- generated a destructive tsunami in the northern Arabian
sea and the Indian ocean (Times of India, 1945; Pararas- Kashmir Earthquake of November 20, 2002
Carayannis, 2001b). The quake’s epicenter was at 24.5
N 63.0 E., about 100 km south of Karachi and about 87 The most destructive recent earthquake in the same
kms SSW of Churi (Baluchistan). Its magnitude was general area occurred on 20 November 2002 in
given as 7.97 (Mw), 7.8 (Ms), 8.2 (ML). It was strongly northwestern Kashmir. This earthquake had a magnitude
felt in Baluchistan and the Lasbela area. In the western 6.4 and its epicenter was 245 km NNE of Islamabad.
and southern sections of Karachi the strong surface According to official reports at least 19 people were
motions lasted for about 30 seconds. The underwater killed, 40 were injured, and hundreds of buildings were
cable link between Karachi and Muscat (Oman) was extensively damaged.
damaged, disrupting communications. The lighthouse at
Gujarat Earthquake of January 25, 2001
Cape Moze - 45 miles from Karachi - was also damaged.
The earthquake was strongly felt also at Manora, where Earthquakes in India's western region of Gujarat have
the lighthouse was damaged. It was moderately felt in been extremely destructive in the past. The magnitude
Panjgaur and Kanpur. The earthquake caused the eruption 7.7 earthquake of January 25, 2001 also caused damage
of a mud volcano a few miles off the Makran coast. This and deaths in Pakistan. Approximately 20,000 people
eruption formed four small islands. It was reported that died, but mostly in India. In Ahmedabad, as many as 50
a large volume of gas emitted at one of these islands, multistory buildings collapsed and several hundred people
sent flames "hundreds of meters" into the sky. Such mud were killed. Total property damage was estimated at $5.5
volcanoes are not uncommon in the Sindh region off the billion and rising. Details are provided in the literature
Makran coast. Their presence indicates the existence of (Pararas-Carayannis, 2001a).
petroleum deposits (Harms et al., 1984). They are known
to discharge flammable gases such as methane, ethane Zonation of Pakistan’s Earthquake Hazard
and traces of other hydrocarbons.
Pakistan’s meteorological department prepared a map,
More than 4,000 people were killed along the Makran which divides the country into four seismic zones on the
coast by the combined effects of the earthquake and basis of expected ground accelerations of earthquakes
tsunami. The tsunami caused great loss of life and (Fig. 9). Accordingly, the most vulnerable areas are parts
destruction along the coasts of Iran, Oman, Western India
and possibly elsewhere. This event is further discussed
in a subsequent section related to Pakistan’s tsunami
vulnerability.

Kangra Earthquake of April 4, 1905

This was a major earthquake in the Dharamshala-Kangra

area in Himachal Pradesh of northern India (Ambraseys
and Bilham, 2000; Pararas-Carayannis, 2007). It was one
of the deadliest in India's history and also caused extensive
destruction and deaths in Lahore. It occurred at 00:49:48
UTC / 06:19:48 IST on April 4, 1905. Its epicenter was
at 32.10N and 76.40 E. Reportedly the ground motions
lasted at least 2 minutes. According to historic records
19,727 people were killed in Dharamshala, Kangra and
the neighboring towns and villages. The high death toll
can be attributed to the timing of the quake, when most
people were indoors. The worst damage occurred at
Kangra where all buildings were destroyed or severely
damaged. There were reports of numerous landslides in Fig 9. Pakistan - seismic risk map
and around Kangra. The quake caused extensive (Pakistan geological survey)
24
of the western Baluchistan province in and around Quetta on islands and other countries bordering the Indian ocean
extending to the Afghan border - which include the (Berninghausen, 1966; Pararas-Carayannis, 2004).
Makran coast to the border with Iran. Earthquakes in this
region could be expected to have a maximum peak ground Potential Tsunami Generation Along the Karachi and
acceleration (PGA) ranging between 0.24-0.4g. Thus, the the Indus Deltaic Region
area surrounding Quetta along the Makran coast and parts
of the North-West Frontier Province (N.W.F.P.) along the There are no known records of whether any tsunamis
border with Afghanistan are designated to be in Zone 4. were generated near the coastal regions of Karachi and
The rest of the NWFP lies in Zone 3 but the southern the deltaic Indus area. However, because of the proximity
parts of this province lie in Zone 2. The remaining segment of thrust faults to coastal areas and the unstable, heavily-
of Pakistan’s south coast to Karachi lies in Zone 3. sedimented, coastal slopes of the deltaic region, future
According to the map, the rest of Pakistan lies in Zone 2. earthquakes have the potential to generate destructive
Major cities such as Peshawar, Rawalpindi and Islamabad local tsunamis that could affect coastal areas near Karachi
are in zone 2. The upper westernmost part of Baluchistan as well as areas in the Kutch region of India and even
and regions along the border with India lie in Zone 1. the coasts of the Maharashtra region (Pararas-Carayannis,
This zone includes the city of Lahore, which sustained 2004).
serious damage by the 1905 Kangra earthquake in India.
Potential Tsunami Generation along the Kutch,
Segments of northern Punjab could have maximum PGA Bombay, Cambay and Namacia Graben Regions of
values in the range of 0.24g to 0.32g. Similar PGA values India
can be expected in N.W.F.P. and around Karachi. For the
rest of the country the maximum PGA values do not fall Lateral transition between subduction and collision of
below 0.8g but steadily decrease towards the border with the Indian and Arabian tectonic plates has formed the
India. The region between Khangarh and Fort Abbas, Kutch, Bombay, Cambay and Namacia Grabens, in north-
along the international border with India, is the region western India. In the Kutch region, remote sensing and
with the lowest maximum PGA. gravity investigations have determined a spatial pattern
of tectonic lineaments along which seven big earthquakes
Landslide Vulnerability with magnitudes (M>6) occurred in the last 200 years.
Fig. 11 illustrates the tectonic forces in the Gujarat region
The high relief of unstable mountains makes northern in India where large grabens have been formed and where
Pakistan very vulnerable to extensive landslides when an
earthquake strikes. Heavy monsoon rains - particularly if
they occur before or after an earthquake, can be the catalyst
to further devastating landslides. For example, the October
2005 earthquake was responsible for many landslides.
Strong earthquake aftershocks triggered additional
landslides of unstable mountain slopes and endangered
villages in the region. As it can be seen from the two
images below taken by the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal
Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) before
and after the earthquake, there were extensive landslides
in and around the city of Muzaffarabad (Fig. 10).

The landslides blocked the roads, thus further isolating

the stricken region. Also, the 1935 Quetta earthquake
and its aftershocks caused numerous landslides in the
Shirinabad valley and rock falls in the Chiltan range in
the western region of Pakistan. There were reports of
dust clouds from these landslides and rock falls rising
up to 500 meters above the mountains.

Tsunami Vulnerability

Southern Pakistan is potentially vulnerable to tsunamis

generated from earthquakes along the Makran subduction
and Accretionary prism zones, the Karachi and deltaic
indus regions, the Owens fault zone as well as the Kutch
Graben region in the Gujarat province of India. Although Fig 10. NASA images of landslides in Pakistan created
the record for past tsunamis is incomplete, it is believed by Jesse Allen, earth observatory, using data obtained
that some were destructive on the coasts of Pakistan, from the University of Maryland's Global Land Cover
Iran, India and Oman and possibly had significant effects facility.
25
 compared to the neighboring regions, which have been
devastated regularly by large earthquakes (Jacob and
Quittmeyer, 1979). Although the historic record is
incomplete, it is believed that tsunamis generated from
this region in the past were destructive in Pakistan, along
the coasts of western India and on islands and other
countries bordering the Indian Ocean. Larger tsunamigenic
earthquakes usually occur on the eastern segment of the
Makran subduction zone. The destructive tsunami
generated by the great earthquake of 28 November 1945,
is an example of the size of earthquakes and tsunamis
that the Eastern Makran subduction zone can produce
(Mokhtari and Farahbod, 2005; Pararas-Carayannis 2005
and 2006). Usually, small earthquakes signal the
Fig 11. Tectonic forces in the Gujarat region of India occurrence of a larger event. For example, for ten years
where large grabens have been formed and where major prior to the 1945 event, there was a concentration of
earthquakes and major tsunami-like flooding has occurred. seismic activity in the vicinity of its epicenter. Recent
seismic activity indicates a similar pattern, thus a large
major earthquakes have occurred in the past, including tsunamigenic earthquake is possible in the region west
the earthquake of 25 January 2001 (Pararas-Carayannis, of the 1945 event (Quittmeyer and Jacob, 1979). The
2001a, 2004). Posni-Ormara zone in eastern Makran represents at the
present time a mature seismic gap. Also foci migration
Past earthquakes in this region have also affected Karachi of background seismicity of the Pasni zone trends toward
and other cities in present Pakistan. Although infrequent, the northwest region and this could be signaling the
several destructive earthquakes in the coastal Sindh region occurrence of a significant earthquake that could generate
occurred in 1524, 1668, 1819, 1901 and 1956, (Pararas- a destructive tsunami (Pararas-Carayannis 2005, 2006).
Carayannis, 2001b). The larger earthquakes involved
extensive vertical crustal uplift over land areas paralleling The Tsunami of 28 November 1945
the orientation of the Kutch Graben. For example, the
1819 earthquake in Rann of the Kutch, bordering the The tsunami generated by the 28 November 1945
Sindh region, was associated with thrust uplift of up to earthquake in the northern Arabian sea resulted in loss
30 feet along the Allah Bund fault and slippage depression of life and great destruction along the coasts of Pakistan,
of up to 10 feet along coastal fault plains. Although poorly Iran, Oman and Western India. The tsunami generating
documented as having generated a tsunami, the 1819 area is shown in Fig. 12. Waves ranging from 1 to 13 m
event was reported as having resulted in major sea (40 feet) struck the Makran coast within minutes after
inundation, destruction of coastal settlements and the quake, destroying fishing villages and caused great
permanent changes to the coastline and the drainage of damage to port facilities. More than 4,000 people died,
major rivers, such as Indus. Probably the 1524 earthquake mostly by the tsunami. The waves completely destroyed
in the same region, also resulted in major inundation by Khudi, a fishing village about 30 miles west of Karachi,
the sea (Pararas-Carayannis, 2001b). killing its entire population. At Dabo creek, 12 fishermen
were swept out to sea. The towns of Pasni and Ormara
Potential Tsunami Generation along the Owens Fault were badly damaged. Pasni's postal and telegraph offices,
Zone government buildings and rest houses were destroyed.
A significant number of people were washed away.
As previously discussed, the Owen fault zone extends
from the Gulf of Aden in a northeast direction towards the
Makran coast where it enters the Baluchistan region. Then
it continues as a land fault known as the Chaman Fault.
Large destructive earthquakes can occur on both the Owen
and the Chaman fault zones, but there are no records of
historical tsunamis (Pararas-Carayannis, 2007). Although
the Chaman is a transform fault, earthquakes near the coast
could trigger underwater landslides and local tsunamis.
Thus, the potential for local tsunami generation from a
large earthquake along Pakistan’s coastal segment of the
Chaman fault, needs to be properly evaluated.

Potential Tsunami Generation Along The Eastern

Makran Subduction Zone
Fig 12. The Tsunami of 28 November 1945 along the
The seismicity of the Makran region is relatively low Makran coast of Pakistan in the northern Arabian sea.
26
Karachi was struck by waves of about 6.5 feet in height about 150 km. Along the Baluchistan region where there
(Pakistan meteorological department, 2005). The first is less sedimentation; the continental shelf measures only
wave was recorded at 5:30 am, and subsequent waves at 15-40 km. The compacted sediments in this entire zone
7:00am, 7:15am and finally at 8:15am. The last wave at of subduction could contribute to a tsunami of greater
8:15 was highest. The tsunami came from the direction height and destructiveness. A bookshelf type of failure
of Clifton and Ghizri, ran along the oil installations at within the compacted sediments - as that associated with
Keamari and flooded a couple of the compounds. There the 1992 Nicaragua earthquake - could generate a more
was no damage either to the port or to the boats in Karachi destructive tsunami (Pararas-Carayannis, 1992). Folding
Harbor. More information on the tsunami can be found of the sediments at the toe of the accretionary prism could
in the literature (Pararas-Carayannis, 2001b). also contribute to larger vertical displacements of the sea
floor and a larger tsunami – with a mechanism similar
Also, there was similar loss of life and crafts along the to that associated with the March 11, 2011 destructive
coasts of Mekran, Iran and Oman. The tsunami was event along the coast of Honshu in Japan (Pararas-
recorded at Muscat and Gwadar. In India, waves up to Carayannis, 2011).
11.5 m struck the Kutch region of Gujarat (Pararas-
Carayannis, 2006), causing extensive destruction and Potential Tsunami Generation Along the Western
loss of life. Eyewitnesses reported that the tsunami came Makran Subduction Zone
in like a fast rising tide. The waves reached as far south
as Mumbai, where the maximum height reached 2 meters, There are no known records of tsunami generation along
washing away fifteen (15) persons. Five people died at the western segment of the Makran subduction zone. The
Versova (Andheri, Mumbai), and six more at Haji Ali western segment - along eastern Iran and southwestern
(Mahalaxmi, Mumbai), Several fishing boats were torn Pakistan – exhibits a lesser degree of seismicity than the
off their moorings at Danda and Juhu. The tsunami did eastern segment. Much of the tectonic plate movement
not do any damage to Bombay Harbor. Most persons along the western segment appears to be accommodated
who witnessed the tsunami said that it rose like the tide by aseismic slip (Byrne et al. 1992). However, the region
coming in, but much more rapidly. has the potential for upthrust events, which can generate
destructive tsunamis. The differences in the mechanics
Factors Contributing to Tsunami Destructiveness Along of subduction along the eastern and western segments
the Eastern Makran Subduction Zone are provided in the literature (Pararas-Carayannis, 2006).
Recent and past seismicity of the entire Makran region
Astronomical Tide - A factor that could contribute to were analyzed and compared with the geology and tectonic
the destructiveness of a tsunami along the Makran plate motions. Most earthquakes in Western Makran
coastline is the relatively large astronomical tide, which occur within the down going plate at intermediate depths.
is about 10-11 feet. A tsunami generated during high tide In contrast to the east, the plate boundary in Western
would be significantly more destructive. Makran has no clear records of historic great events and
there are no records of any recent shallow thrust events.
Influence of Sedimentation on Potential Tsunami In Iran, for example, the foci depth of events indicates
Generation - The Baluchistan section of the Makran that the Benioff zone continues to the volcanic arc of
coast has several small river deltas. Also, in the eastern Bazman-Taftan-Soltan along which many mud volcanoes
Sindh region the Indus river has formed one of the largest exist (Fig. 14) (Jadoon, 1992).
deltas in the world (Fig. 13). Past meandering of Indus
has formed extensive deltas east of Karachi. Past Historical Tsunamis

Extensive sedimentation from the erosion in the Himalayas Destructive tsunamigenic earthquakes have occurred in
has widened the continental shelf of the Sindh coast to

Fig 14. The Makran accretionary front. eastern and western

Fig 13. Rivers in the Indus delta segments – apparently discontinuous.
27
the north Arabian sea throughout geologic history. Most Construction and development should be prohibited in
of these events have not been adequately reported or areas that put at risk the general population.
documented. Past tsunamis from this region affected
southern Pakistan, India, Iran, Oman, the Maldives and References
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known tsunami in the region may have been generated Ambraseys, N; Bilham, R. (2000) A short note on the
by a large magnitude earthquake, which occurred in the Ms7.8 Kangra earthquake of 1905, Current Science,
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