Climate Change

Adaptation and
mitigation
Ma. Gerarda Asuncion D. Merilo
Climate Change Division
Environmental Management Bureau
Key Messages
• Learn the basic concepts of climate change

• Understand the relationship between climate

change and the environment and ecosystems
Environment/Ecosystems Climate Change

• Understand the link between climate change and

development
 “EARTH IS AT THE
TIPPING POINT”
Headlines around the world
indicate a “sick” earth. Unusual
weather patterns are being
experienced and wreaking havoc
in all corners of the world.
“Things that normally happen in
geologic time are happening
during the span of a human
lifetime (National Geographic,
September 2004).”
Source: National Geographic Magazine (2004) PAGASA/DOST
 PAGASA/DOST
Source: National Geographic Magazine (2004)
Climate change is faster and more severe in the Arctic than in most of the rest of
the world. The Arctic is warming at a rate of almost twice the global average. The
sea ice that is a critical component of Arctic marine ecosystems is projected to
disappear in the summer within a generation.

Source: National Geographic Magazine (2004)

PAGASA/DOST
 Glaciers are retreating . . .
Unteraar Glacier which used to reach the
Swiss central Alps has retreated to higher
elevation receding as much as a mile
after temperature has risen.

Source: National Geographic Magazine (2004)

PAGASA/DOST
 Unusual weather patterns
are being experienced in all
corners of the world.

“Things that normally

happen in geologic time are
happening during the span of a
human lifetime.”
In January 1995, in Antartica, a
70x25 km. iceberg was cut from
Larsen A. The disintegration of the
remainder of the Larsen A followed
which many scientists considered to
to be closely related to climate
change.

In 2002, satellites recorded an even

larger disintegration than what
occurred in 1995. Between 31
January and 5 March 2002,
approximately 3,250 square
kilometres of the Larsen Ice Shelf B
shattered, releasing 720 billion tons
of ice into the Weddell Sea. It was the
largest single disintegration event in
30 years of ice shelf monitoring.
Preliminary studies of sediment cores
suggest that it may have been this ice
shelf's first collapse in 12,000 years.
Source: National Geographic Magazine (2004)
Shrinking sea ice PAGASA/DOST
A temperature increase of 3-4oC since 1950 has resulted in the melting of the
Alaskan permafrost. The absence of summer sea-ice resulted to coastal
erosion and has created subsidence causing roads and buildings to collapse
making low-lying communities unenviable.
In 2006, more than 17 million
people in some countries of
Africa including Kenya faced
serious food shortages due
to consecutive years of
failed rains.
 Europe was experiencing a
historic heat wave that had been
responsible for at least 3,000
deaths in France alone in the
summer of 2003. Compared to
July 2001, temperatures in July
2003 were sizzling. This image
shows the differences in day time
land surface temperatures
collected in the two years by the
Moderate Resolution Imaging
Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on
NASA’s Terra satellite. A blanket of
deep red across southern and
eastern France (left of image
center) shows where
temperatures were 10 degrees
Celsius (18 degrees Fahrenheit)
hotter in 2003 than in 2001.
 Thinning of Arctic sea-ice, retreat of non-polar glacier
& snow cover

1993 2000

Mt. Kilimanjaro, Tanzania

IUCN
In September 28, 2006, super typhoon Milenyo the
strongest typhoon to hit Metro Manila in seven
years, cut across Luzon, leaving at least 18 people
dead and a Luzon-wide blackout.
In 2004, the death toll stood at 412, with 177 people missing, after typhoon
Winnie triggered landslides and flash floods in Quezon.

In February 2006, an estimated 1,500 to 2,500 people died after the village of
Guinsaugon, Leyte was buried by mudflow. This mudslide happened after heavy
rains dumped 459.2 millimeters of rain in only 3 days.
 What is Climate Change?
• “A change of climate which is attributed directly or
indirectly to human activity that alters the
composition of the global atmosphere which is in
addition to natural climate variability observed over a
comparable period of time.” (United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)

• “Any change in climate over time, whether due to

natural variability or as a result of human activity.”
(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
 www.eere.energy.gov

Greenhouse effect refers to rise in global temperature due to the process by

which the gases in the atmosphere trap the heat coming from the sun that is re-
radiated by the earth’s surface and re-emit it downwards. Because of how they warm
our world, these gases are referred to as greenhouse gases.
Greenhouse Effect and Global Warming
 So what are the greenhouse gases (GHGs)?

• Water vapor
• Carbon dioxide (CO2)
• Methane (CH4)
• Nitrous oxide (N2O)
• Ozone (O3)
The GHGs are produced by natural processes such as:
• water cycle
• growth and death of plants and animals
• decaying of wood and other biodegradable materials
• volcanic activities
 Importance of greenhouse gases

These are the naturally occurring gases that keep the Earth
comfortably warm enough for plants and animals to live in at an average
temperature of 15oC. They act as a natural blanket around the earth, trapping
heat much like a glass roof of a greenhouse.
 Without the greenhouse effect, the Earth’s average surface
temperature would be some 30°C colder or approximately -15°C
and possibly not warm enough to sustain life.
 Unfortunately, humans are affecting atmospheric
greenhouse gas concentrations by introducing new sources or
by interfering with natural processes that destroy or remove
GHGs.
 How do greenhouse gases influence climate
change?

By burning fossil fuels due to industrialization and to sustain

our modern lifestyle, the level of GHGs increase rapidly. The higher
the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, the
stronger the greenhouse effect making it into enhanced
greenhouse effect.
 This is what is causing climate change. Climate change,
therefore, is caused by both natural events and human
(anthropogenic) activities. Scientists now agree that most of the
global warming today have been caused by human activities.
Greenhouse Gases (GHGs)

GWP % Total world

GHG Lifetime
(CO2-e) emissions
Carbon Dioxide (CO2) 5-200 years 1 77%
Methane (CH4) 12 years 21 14%
Nitrous Oxide (N2O) 114 years 310 8%
Sulfur Hexafluoride (SF6) 3,200 years 23,900 <1%
Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) 140 to 11,700 <1%

Perfluorocarbons (PFCs) 6,500 to 9,200 <1%

Carbon Tetrafluoride (CF4) 50,000 years
GWP values and lifetimes from 1995 IPCC SAR

Global Warming Potential (GWP)

Heat-trapping ability of a GHG relative to that of carbon dioxide, it describes the degree of harm
to the atmosphere of a unit of a given GHG to an equivalent unit of CO2 over a given period of
time.
Measured in metric tons of CO2 equivalent (CO2-e)
1 metric ton = 1.1 short ton
 Effects of Climate Change

• Increase in minimum
(nighttime) temperatures,
maximum (daytime)
temperatures, and increases in
the global mean temperature.
• Increase in sea surface
temperatures, sea level and
changes in evaporation, and
thus, changes in rainfall
patterns among others.
• Extreme changes in weather
patterns
 What is happening?
A recent report by the Working Group 1 to the Fifth Assessment Report
of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR5)), a global
group of experts on climate studies had recently been released in
September 2013.

“Warming of the climate system is

unequivocal, and since the 1950s, many of
the observed changes are unprecedented
over decades to millenia. The atmosphere
and ocean have warmed, the amounts of
snow and ice have diminished, sea level has
risen, and the concentrations of greenhouse
gases have increased.”
(IPCC-AR5 )
 Working Group 1 Contribution to the
IPCC 5th Assessment Report
Radiative forcing estimates in 2011 relative to 1750

IPCC AR5 WG1

Human influence on the climate system is clear. This is evident from

the increasing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere,
positive radiative forcing, observed warming, and understanding of the
climate system.
 Working Group 1 Contribution to the
IPCC 5th Assessment Report

Multiple observed indicators of a

changing global carbon cycle

The atmospheric concentrations of

CO2, CH4 and N2O have increased to
levels unprecedented in at the last
800,000 years.

CO2 concentrations have increased

by 40% since the pre-industrial
times. The ocean has absorbed 30%
of the emitted anthropogenic CO2,
causing ocean acidification.
 Working Group 1 Contribution to the
IPCC 5th Assessment Report

Observed globally averaged

combined land and ocean
surface temperature
anomaly 1850-2012

NASA

IPCC AR5 WG1

The globally averaged combined land and ocean surface temperature

data show a warming of 0.85 [0.65 to 1.08°C over the period 1880-2012.
The total increase between the average of the 1850-1900 period and the
2003-2012 period is 0.78 [0.72 to 0.85] °C.
 Working Group 1 Contribution to the
IPCC 5th Assessment Report

Global Mean Sea Level Rise

 The rate of sea level rise since
the mid-19th century has been
larger then the mean rate during
the previous two millennia. Over
the period 1901 to 2010, global
mean sea level rose by 0.19
[0.17 to .21] meters.
 Sea level rise will occur mostly
as a result of the thermal
expansion of warming ocean
waters, the influx of freshwater
from melting glaciers and ice,
and vertical movements of the
land itself

IPCC AR5 Working Group 1

Evidence of Climate Change

Source: U.S. National Climate Assessment (2014).

This graph shows the increase in greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations in the
atmosphere over the last 2,000 years. Increases in concentrations of these gases
since 1750 are due to human activities in the industrial era.
Observed warming is highly correlated with CO2 increase.
Evidence of Climate Change
Situation
• As a country geographically situated in the “Pacific ring
of fire” and along the typhoon belt, the Philippines is no
stranger to natural hazards and their impacts. Data for
the last 50 years dealing with climate showed a trend of
rising temperatures by about 0.011º C annually;
changes in rainfall pattern, and increasing number of
extreme weather events such as cyclones, flooding and
droughts.
• PAGASA independent studies and climate models came
up with the following changes in the climate regime for
2020 and 2050:

• A rise in the country’s mean annual temperature

by about 0.9 ºC to 1.4 ºC for 2020 and 1.7 ºC to
2.4 ºC by 2050;
• Drier season of March to May will become drier
and wet season of July-August and September-
November will become wetter with time.
• Reduction in rainfall in most areas in Mindanao is
seen for all seasons by 2050
• A much active and stronger southwest monsoon is
projected as seen in the significant increases in
• rainfall in June-August become greater with time
 Climate Change Impacts

Changes in temperature, weather patterns and sea level rise

Coastal/Marine Human
Agriculture
Ecosystem Health
• Coastal erosion • Added heat stress, shifting • Increase in vector-borne diseases
• Storm surges monsoons, drier soils, water • Increase in cardio-vascular
• Coastal flooding shortages/ irrigation demands illnesses
• Saltwater intrusion • Decreased rice/crop production • Increase in upper respiratory
• Coral bleaching • Impact on livestock production illnesses
• Ocean acidification • Occurrence of weed infestation & • Occurrence of infectious diseases
diseases

Water Forests/ Industry and

Resources Biodiversity Energy
• Impact on hydrological cycle, • Shift in feeding point and disruption in • Changes in energy supply and
changing evaporation, flight patterns for migratory birds. demand
precipitation and runoff patterns • Extinction of some mountain plants • Impact on energy infrastructure
and animals
which could affect water resources • Changes in species distribution, • Impact on industries such as wine,
(freshwater quantity and quality) composition tourism, livestock, fishing, insurance,
• Impact on power generation • Invasion of weeds and alien species holiday resorts, mining, and others
• Loss and migration of plant and animal
species
What can we do?
• Limit the cause of climate change
through measures that could slow down
the build up of atmospheric GHGs
concentrations by reducing current and
future emissions and by increasing GHG
sinks (Mitigation)
Reduce, minimize, avoid or
stop GHG emissions

• Adjustment in natural or human

systems in response to actual or
expected climatic stimuli or their effects,
which moderates harm or exploits
beneficial opportunities (Adaptation)
Increase the resilience and
coping capacity of the sector
with the current and future
changes
https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Climate-change-mitigation-and-adaptation-
as-distinct-interventions-in-the-two-way_fig1_264126585
 Adaptation Measures

Water Sector
• Expanded rainwater harvesting
• water storage and conservation
techniques
• water re-use desalination;
• water-use and irrigation efficiency
 Agriculture
• adjustment of planting dates
• development of crop varieties
• crop relocation
• improved land management,
e.g. erosion control and soil
protection through tree planting
Coastal Areas

• Relocate residents living

along low lying areas
• Set up marine reserve
networks to replenish
coral/fish larvae
• Mangrove reforestation
to serve as buffer for
strong waves and storm
surge
 Health Sector
• Sanitary practices
• Preventive care(e.g., vaccines)
• Information and awareness
• Health surveillance and
monitoring
Early Warning Systems
 Mitigation measures/strategies
• Energy Supply
Improved supply and distribution efficiency; fuel switching from
coal to gas, nuclear power, renewable heat and power
(hydropower, solar, wind, geothermal and bioenergy); combined
heat and power; early applications of Carbon Dioxide Capture
(e.g. storage of removed CO2 from natural gas)
• Transport
More fuel efficient vehicles; hybrid vehicles; cleaner diesel
vehicles; biofuels; modal shift from road transport to rail and
public transport systems; non-motorised transport (cycling,
walking); land use and transport planning
• Buildings
Efficient lighting and daylighting; more efficient electrical
appliances and heating and cooling devices; improved cook
stoves, improved insulation; passive and active solar design for
heating and cooling; alternative refrigeration fluids, recovery and
recycling of fluorinated gases.
 Climate change is a core
development issue
• Driver: Climate change is caused by fossil
fuel use to power development as well as
land conversion for production and
development
• Outcomes: Impacts of climate change
jeopardize the inputs to development and
people’s ability to benefit from and sustain
development gains
• Solutions: Climate change solutions will be
achieved through low-carbon and climate-
resilient development
Two-Way Linkages between climate and sustainable development

IPCC 4th Assessment Report: WG II, 200

 What is Ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA)?
“Ecosystem-based adaptation is the
… use of biodiversity and ecosystem services
… as part of an overall adaptation strategy …
… to help people to adapt to the adverse effects of climate change.”
(CBD, 2009)

Specific features:
 anthropocentric focus

 helps minimize
negative impacts of
climate change on
people & ecosystems

 promotes sustainable
management of
ecosystems

05.06.2016 EbA Mainstreaming in the Philippines-Support CCCII

 What is Ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA)?
Remember:

The main goal of EbA is to help people to adapt to

climate change

The use of biodiversity and ecosystem services are means by which to

help people

05.06.2016 EbA Mainstreaming in the Philippines-Support CCCII

 What is meant by Ecosystem Approach?
The (CBD) Ecosystem Approach and its principles
CBD defines 12
“… is a strategy for the principles of an
integrated management of “ecosystem
land, water and all living approach”, i.e.
resources” • Management is a
societal choice
• Understand and
 Focus on interdependencies and manage ecosystems
processes in an economic
context
 Apply measures on the most
• Conservation of
appropriate scale and level ecosystem
 Facilitate and ensure intersectoral functioning and
services should be a
cooperation priority
• Consider all relevant
forms of information
https://www.cbd.int/ecosystem/principles.shtml

05.06.2016 EbA Mainstreaming in the Philippines-Support CCC II

 The concept of ecosystem services:
services provided by ecosystems that benefit
people

Provisioning Regulating Cultural

 food, wood and fiber,  climate regulation, water  aesthetic, spiritual,
fuels,… cycle regulation,… recreational,…

Supporting
 e.g. photosynthesis, soil formation, nutrient cycle,…
Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (2005)

05.06.2016
EbA Mainstreaming in the Philippines-Support CCC II
 Essential ecosystem services in the context of
climate change adaptation

1. Regulating services:

• Extreme event buffering

• Erosion prevention & fertility

• Climate & water regulation

2. Provisioning services:

• Fresh water provision

We need to look beyond particular species
• Food provision and consider the functioning of an ecosystem
as a whole
(systems thinking).

05.06.2016
EbA Mainstreaming in the Philippines-Support CCC II
 Dimension 1 - Climate Change
• Part of an overall climate change policy framework (e.g. strategies, plans,
programmes)
• Current & future climate risks for societies and ecosystems are addressed (e.g.
climate scenarios, vulnerability assessments)
• Adaptation results are measured (e.g. M&E system)
• Contribution to mitigation

Dimension 2 – Ecosystems & Services (ES)

• Essential ecosystem services for adaptation are maintained or restored (soil
conservation & food supply, freshwater supply, buffering of extreme events)
• Territorial (ecosystem-based) & crosssectoral landscape approach
• Value of ecosystem services has been assessed and cost and benefits of the
activity can be measured to make it comparable with other adaptation options.

Dimension 3 – Society & Economy

• Increased adaptive capacity of most vulnerable groups & sectors to the use of
biodiversity and ecosystem services
• Collaboration, participation & ownership increased
• Human wellbeing maintained or improved (income, health)
• Integrates local knowledge & institutions related to using biodiversity &
ecosystem services with respect to risk management & adaptation
05.06.2016 EbA Mainstreaming in the Philippines-Support CCC II
Synergies with other
approaches
• Overlaps with e.g.
disaster risk
management, natural
resource management,
sustainable land
management
• Strong local-
level synergies
• Often combines
traditional / indigenous
& contemporary
knowledge
Situation
• As a country geographically situated in the “Pacific ring
of fire” and along the typhoon belt, the Philippines is no
stranger to natural hazards and their impacts. Data for
the last 50 years dealing with climate showed a trend of
rising temperatures by about 0.011º C annually;
changes in rainfall pattern, and increasing number of
extreme weather events such as cyclones, flooding and
droughts.
• PAGASA independent studies and climate models came
up with the following changes in the climate regime for
2020 and 2050:

 A rise in the country’s mean annual temperature

by about 0.9 ºC to 1.4 ºC for 2020 and 1.7 ºC to
2.4 ºC by 2050;
 Drier season of March to May will become drier
and wet season of July-August and September-
November will become wetter with time.
 Reduction in rainfall in most areas in Mindanao is
seen for all seasons by 2050
 A much active and stronger southwest monsoon is
projected as seen in the significant increases in
rainfall in June-August become greater with time
2°C world 4.5°C world

Today we have a choice.

IPCC 2013, Fig. SPM.8

The window for action is rapidly closing
65% of our carbon budget compatible with a 2°C goal already used

Amount
Remaining:
Total Carbon 275
Limiting
Budget:climate
change will require substantial
GtC

Amount Used
and sustained
790
GtC
reductions of greenhouse gas
1870-2011:
emissions and adaptation to 515
the remaining risks.
GtC

CO2 emissions in 2013: 9.9 GtC

IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report

The Philippines’ response to the international
call to address climate change

Signed the United Nations Framework

Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
on June 1992 and ratified it on August 2, 1994
• The foundation of global efforts to combat
climate change

Signed the Kyoto Protocol on April 15, 1998

and ratified it on November 20, 2003

68
 Climate Change Act of 2009
(RA 9729)
 Signed by the President on 23 October
2009.

 An Act Mainstreaming Climate Change

into Government Policy Formulations,
Establishing the Framework, Strategy
and Program on Climate Change,
Creating for this Purpose the Climate
Change Commission (CCC), and for
Other Purposes

 Ensure and strengthen the adaptation

of the country’s natural ecosystems
and human communities to climate
change.
69
EbA in the Paris Agreement (Preamble)

“ . . . Noting the importance of

ensuring the integrity of all
ecosystems, including oceans,
and the protection of
biodiversity, recognized by some
cultures as Mother Earth . . . ”
 EbA in the Paris Agreement
(Article 7 – Adaptation)
• 2. (…) adaptation is a key component (…) to protect people,
livelihoods and ecosystems (…)
• 5. (…) adaptation actions should follow a country driven, gender
responsive, participatory and fully transparent approach taking
into consideration vulnerable groups, communities and
ecosystems (…)
• 9. Each party shall (…) engage in adaptation planning and (…)
implementation (…) which may include (…)
• (c) The assessment of climate change impacts and vulnerability
(…) taking into account vulnerable people, places and
ecosystems;
• (e) Building the resilience of socioeconomic and ecological
systems, incl. through economic diversification and
sustainable management of natural resources

EbA Mainstreaming in the Philippines-Support

05.06.2016
CCC II
 “Climate change will not be
effectively managed until
individuals and communities
recognise that their behaviour
can make a difference.”
-The Royal Society, Climate Change: what we know
and what we need to know. (2002)
Thank you
For your questions / queries:

Climate Change Office (CCO)

DNA - CDM Secretariat Office
Environmental Management Bureau
DENR Compound, Visayas Avenue, Diliman, Quezon City
Telefax: (+63-2) 920-2251; 928-4674
Website: www.emb.gov.ph; cdmdna.emb.gov.ph
Email: [email protected];
[email protected]