2018-2027 Luelco PSPP PDF
2018-2027 Luelco PSPP PDF
POWER SUPPLY
PROCUREMENT PLAN
Prepared by:
Insights:
In compliance with the Department of Energy’s (DOE) Department Circular No. DC 2018-02-0003,
“Adopting and Prescribing the Policy for the Competitive Selection Process in the Procurement by the
Distribution Utilities of Power Supply Agreement for the Captive Market” or the Competitive Selection
process (CSP) Policy, the Power Supply Procurement Plan (PSPP) Report is hereby created, pursuant to
the Section 4 of the said Circular.
The PSPP refers to the DUs’ plan for the acquisition of a variety of demand-side and supply-side
resources to cost-effectively meet the electricity needs of its customers. The PSPP is an integral part of
the Distribution Utilities’ Distribution Development Plan (DDP) and must be submitted to the
Department of Energy with supported Board Resolution and/or notarized Secretary’s Certificate.
The Third-Party Bids and Awards Committee (TPBAC), Joint TPBAC or Third Party Auctioneer (TPA) shall
submit to the DOE and in the case of Electric Cooperatives (ECs), through the National Electrification
Administration (NEA) the following:
All Distribution Utilities’ shall follow and submit the attached report to the Department of Energy for
posting on the DOE CSP Portal. For ECs such reports shall be submitted to DOE and NEA. The NEA shall
review the submitted report within ten (10) working days upon receipt prior to its submission to DOE
for posting at the DOE CSP Portal.
The content of the PSSP shall be consistent with the DDP. The tables and graph format to be use on
the PSPP report is provided on the following sheets. Further, the PSPP shall contain the following
sections:
I. Table of Contents
II. Introduction
III. Energy and Demand Forecast (10 year historical and forecast)
IV. Energy Sales and Purchase
V. Daily Load Profile and Load Duration Curve
VI. Existing Contracts & Existing GenCos due diligence report
VII. Committed Energy and Demand for CSP
VIII. Currently approved SAGR for Off-Grid ECs to be passed-on to consumers;
IX. DU’s Current Supply and Demand
X. Distribution Impact Study
XI. Schedule of Power Supply Procurement
XII. Timeline of the CSP
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page
I. Introduction 3
III. Demand 7
INTRODUCTION
DISTRIBUTION UTILITIES PROFILE
LUELCO, at present, has 6 Area Offices located at Aringay, Agoo, Rosario, Naguilian,
Bacnotan and Bangar and 5 Collection Offices situated at the Municipalities of Luna,
Balaoan, San Juan-San Gabriel, Tubao, Sto. Tomas, La Union and at Sison, Pangasinan.
There are six (6) Substations which supply the power requirement of the coverage area
which are strategically located in Naguilian (10 MVA S/S), Damortis (10 MVA S/S),
Balaoan (15 MVA S/S), Aringay (15 MVA S/S), Bacnotan (10 MVA), and in San Fabian,
Pangasinan (5 MVA S/S). All these are manned/operated/maintained by the coop’s 304
employees.
The customer profile as of December 31, 2017 shows that residential customers are
dominant in LUELCO at 128,870 (94.28%) of the total customer population followed by
commercial customers at 4,762 (3.48%). In terms of energy share per customer, still
residential customers have the biggest piece of the total energy at 130,403 MWh
(65.74%). LUELCO’s system coincident peak demand registered a high 41.34 MW in 2017
compared to 40.28 MW in 2016.
POWER SUPPLY PROCUREMENT PLAN
Total (Captive
136309 144315 153639 163980 175226 187285 200090 213588 227741 242523 257919
Customers)
Commercial
Industrial
Others
The GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant (GMCP), Ltd. Supplies the baseload requirements of
LUELCO for 15 years which started on Dec. 26, 2012 and it will end Dec. 25, 2027.
LUELCO contracted a baseload of 27,000 kW with a monthly average of 6,527,250 kWh
equivalents. The remaining requirements both for kW Demand & Energy Demand will be
sourced from the Renewable Energy Sources, e.g Tubao Mini-Hydro Plant (1.2 MW) and
SurePep Biomass Plant (350 kW) and from Solar PV proponents (i.e. Solar Pacific, Sol-
Tierra, AirEnergy, etc.) and from the Spot Market (WESM). LUELCO contracted another
8,000 kW from AES, Phils. (MPPCL) for 15 years starting December 26, 2018. The
Number of Customers will have an average annual growth rate (AAGR) of 6.6% for the
next ten (10) years, 2018 - 2027.
POWER SUPPLY PROCUREMENT PLAN
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
FORECAST
YEARS
The Gn Power Mariveles Coal Plant (GMCP), Ltd. Supplies the baseload requirements of LUELCO for 15
years which started on Dec. 26, 2012 and it will end Dec. 25, 2027. LUELCO contracted a baseload of
27,000 kW with a monthly average of 6,527,250 kWh equivalent. The remaining requirements both for
kW Demand & Energy Demand will be sourced from the Renewable Energy Sources, e.g Tubao Mini-
Hydro Plant (1.2 MW) and Surepep Biomass Plant (350 kW) and from the Spot Market (WESM).
LUELCO contracted another 8,000 kW from AES, Phils. (MPPCL) for 15 years starting April 2019. The
kWh Sales and kWh Purchased will have an average annual growth rate (AAGR) of 4.9% and 4.3%,
respectively. The forecasting model used for the MWh Sales and Purchased is Y = at3 + bt2 + c, it is a
Cubic Trend with 2 Variables.
POWER SUPPLY PROCUREMENT PLAN
DEMAND
HISTORICAL
Demand
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Coincident Peak
26.41 28.10 30.86 30.49 31.98 34.30 34.85 37.02 40.28 41.34
Demand (MW)
Off Peak Demand
7.52 8.04 8.31 9.18 9.74 10.41 10.5 10.16 11.72 12.52
(MW)
FORECASTED
Demand
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Coincident Peak
43.82 46.33 48.84 55.28 58.13 61.11 64.22 67.46 70.82 74.32
Demand (MW)
Off Peak Demand
14.68 15.93 17.18 18.43 19.68 20.93 22.18 23.43 24.68 25.93
(MW)
11.72 12.52
9.74 10.41 10.5 10.16
8.04 8.31 9.18
7.52
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
HISTORICAL
Years
Coincident Peak Demand (MW) Off Peak Demand (MW)
POWER SUPPLY PROCUREMENT PLAN
The coincident peak demand for the year 2008 is 26.41 MW and in year 2017 is 41.34 MW which means
an increase of 14.93 MW in ten years with an Average Annual Growth Rate (AAGR) of 5.4%. The
forecasting model used for the Peak Demand for 2018 to 2027 is Y = alnt2 + blnt + ct-1 + d, it is a
Quadratic & Logarithmic Trend with Smoothing & Horizon.
POWER SUPPLY PROCUREMENT PLAN
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
284
567
850
1133
1416
1699
1982
2265
2548
2831
3114
3397
3680
3963
4246
4529
4812
5095
5378
5661
5944
6227
6510
6793
7076
7359
7642
7925
8208
8491
1
Hourly kW
GRAPH PROVIDED HERE IS SAMPLE ONLY
KW
Based on the load duration curve the Base Load of LUELCO is 79.93% which is equal
to 35 MW and a Peaking of 20.07% equal to 8.79 MW. LUELCO also has an
uncontracted base capacity of 8 MW because of its contracted base capacity of 27
MW. The percent capacity factor is equal to 15.47% which is the intersection between
coal and diesel based on their annual levelized cost.
POWER SUPPLY PROCUREMENT PLAN
3000000
2500000
COAL
2000000 CCGT
DIESEL
1500000
1000000
500000
0
1
5
9
13
17
21
25
29
33
37
41
45
49
53
57
61
65
69
73
77
81
85
89
93
97
101
LOAD DURATION CURVE (kW)
45000
40000
35000
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
304
607
910
1213
1516
1819
2122
2425
2728
3031
3334
3637
3940
4243
4546
4849
5152
5455
5758
6061
6364
6667
6970
7273
7576
7879
8182
8485
1
Supply vs Demand
80
70
60
50
MW
40
30
20
10
0
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
ACTUAL FORECAST
YEARS
Supply Contracted, MW Supply for PSA Approval, MW Uncontracted Demand, MW Peak Demand, MW
POWER SUPPLY PROCUREMENT PLAN
GN
Mariveles
Grid
Coal GNPower;
12/2012 12/2027 27 236520 Baseload Connecte IPP Running Coal 600
Power Ltd. Co.
d
Plant
(GMCP)
Tubao
Mini- On-going
TMHEC, Baseload / Embedde Mini
Hyrdo 12/2016 12/2036 1.5 10512 IPP Constructio 1.5
Inc. Mid merit d Hydro
Electric n
Plant
The demand for 2017 is equal to 41.34 MW with an uncontracted demand of 14.34 MW which is purchased from the
WESM or Spot Market. Then if the PSA of AES Phils. and SUREPEP will be approved with an equivalent demand of 8.35
MW, the supply contracted for LUELCO will be 36.35 MW for 2018 which will bring a deficit of 7.47 MW. By year 2020 an
additional 5 MW will be contracted with the GN Power Dinginin which will bring LUELCO's supply contract to 41.55 MW
with a deficiency of 7.29 MW as per forecasted demand. LUELCO will start to bid/look for an additional PSA under the
CSP because their will be a high defict or uncontracted demand for year 2021 to 2027.
POWER SUPPLY PROCUREMENT PLAN
The voltage variation in the distribution system should not exceed +10% of the nominal voltage or
equivalent to not less than 0.9 per unit and not more than 1.1 per unit of the nominal value.
For voltage unbalance, it should not exceed 2.5% during normal operation which is computed by
dividing the maximum deviation from the average of the three-phase voltages to the average of the
three phase voltages.
The Substation capacity loading criteria is compared based on the 100% of ONAN (Natural Oil and
Natural Air) rated capacity (MVA) of the power transformer to the forecasted demand (MW) at a
power factor of 90% - 98%.
Maximum Short circuit current is computed at fault impedance equivalent to zero and for minimum
short circuit current 30 ohms fault impedance is used. The bolted fault current or fault current at zero
impedance is used in determining the margin of safety of the equipment with its rated interrupting
capacity, a 10% or above margin if safety is acceptable and 10% below is considered unsafe. The
minimum fault current is used to compare the setting of the protective devices in the system. If the
minimum short circuit currents are below the settings of the upstream protective devices it is
considered unsafe.
For system reliability, the criteria is based on the Distribution Code with the System Average
Interruption Frequency Index (SAIFI) should not be more 20 hours-interruptions per customer per year
and the System Average Interruption Duration Index (SAIDI) should not exceed 45 hours-interruptions
per customer per year.
POWER SUPPLY PROCUREMENT PLAN
SCHEDULE OF CSP
2025
Jan 57.41 27.40 26,974.97 41.55 30,913.20 10.70 - - -
Feb 54.94 24.45 26,048.58 41.55 30,913.20 8.45 - - -
Mar 59.12 29.84 25,779.99 41.55 27,921.60 12.26 - - -
Apr 64.11 33.37 31,757.38 41.55 30,913.20 16.81 844.18 - -
May 67.46 35.35 32,774.10 41.55 29,916.00 19.85 2,858.10 - -
Jun 66.90 34.52 32,928.91 41.55 30,913.20 19.34 2,015.71 - -
Jul 63.92 27.87 29,857.95 41.55 29,916.00 16.63 - - -
Aug 65.71 29.91 31,111.10 41.55 30,913.20 18.26 - - -
Sep 63.31 33.60 30,481.17 41.55 30,913.20 16.07 - - -
Oct 62.36 23.43 28,359.24 41.55 29,916.00 15.21 - - -
Nov 62.86 31.17 30,449.94 41.55 30,913.20 15.67 - - -
Dec 62.39 30.68 28,706.92 41.55 29,916.00 15.24 - - -
2026
Jan 60.31 28.92 28,266.76 41.55 30,913.20 12.87 - - -
Feb 57.70 25.80 27,291.18 41.55 30,913.20 10.52 - - -
Mar 62.09 31.49 27,005.02 41.55 27,921.60 14.48 - - -
Apr 67.33 35.19 33,260.64 41.55 30,913.20 19.20 2,347.44 - -
May 70.82 37.28 34,319.55 41.55 29,916.00 22.36 4,403.55 - -
Jun 70.23 36.39 34,475.73 41.55 30,913.20 21.83 3,562.53 - -
Jul 67.10 29.38 31,255.18 41.55 29,916.00 19.00 1,339.18 - -
Aug 68.96 31.51 32,561.47 41.55 30,913.20 20.68 1,648.27 - -
Sep 66.43 35.40 31,896.80 41.55 30,913.20 18.40 983.60 - -
Oct 65.43 24.68 29,671.37 41.55 29,916.00 17.49 - - -
Nov 65.95 32.82 31,853.53 41.55 30,913.20 17.96 940.33 - -
Dec 65.44 32.30 30,025.23 41.55 29,916.00 17.50 109.23 - -
2027
Jan 63.32 30.44 29,560.04 41.55 30,913.20 15.04 - - -
Feb 60.58 27.15 28,535.20 41.55 30,913.20 12.58 - - -
Mar 65.18 33.13 28,231.46 41.55 27,921.60 16.70 309.86 - -
Apr 70.66 37.02 34,765.63 41.55 30,913.20 21.60 3,852.43 - -
May 74.32 39.21 35,866.77 41.55 29,916.00 24.87 5,950.77 - -
Jun 73.70 38.26 36,024.32 41.55 30,913.20 24.31 5,111.12 - -
Jul 70.40 30.88 32,654.01 41.55 29,916.00 21.36 2,738.01 - -
Aug 72.34 33.12 34,013.49 41.55 30,913.20 23.10 3,100.29 - -
Sep 69.68 37.20 33,314.06 41.55 30,913.20 20.72 2,400.86 - -
Oct 68.62 25.93 30,985.01 41.55 29,916.00 19.77 1,069.01 - -
Nov 69.16 34.48 33,258.73 41.55 30,913.20 20.25 2,345.53 - -
Dec 68.62 33.92 31,345.05 41.55 29,916.00 19.77 1,429.05 - -
POWER SUPPLY PROCUREMENT PLAN ANNEX B