SUMMARY OF THE MEMBER STATE FORECAST DOCUMENTS
In accordance with Article 4(3) of Directive 2009/28/EC on the promotion of the use of
energy from renewable energy sources, all Member States have submitted documents giving
their forecast of the expected use they will make of the cooperation mechanisms contained in
the Directive.
The cooperation mechanisms include "statistical transfers" where Member State governments
can agree to exchange statistically a given quantity renewable energy produced. Another
mechanism is the "joint project", where a specific new plant is identified and the output of the
plant shared statistically between Member States. Joint projects concerning electricity
production can also be established with third countries if a number of conditions are met,
most importantly if the electricity is physically consumed in the EU. The intention behind the
Directive's creation of these instruments is to allow Member States to achieve their targets in
a cost effective manner, developing renewable energy sources wherever it is most efficient to
do so.
The Commission has made the documents available to the public on its Transparency
Platform, established in conformity with Article 24 of the Directive1.
Key findings from the reports are:
• At least ten Member States expect to have a surplus in 2020 compared to their binding
target for the share of renewable energy in their final energy consumption. This surplus
could be available to transfer to another Member State. The quantity is estimated at around
5.5 Mtoe, or around 2% of the total renewables needed in 2020.
o Spain and Germany forecast the largest surpluses in absolute terms, with 2.7
Mtoe and 1.4 Mtoe respectively.
• Five Member States expect to have a deficit in 2020 compared to their binding target for
the share of renewable energy in their final energy consumption. These Member States
thus require transfers from another Member State or third country, through the use of the
Directive's cooperation mechanisms. The quantity amounts to around 2 Mtoe (<1% of the
total renewable energy needed in 2020).
o Italy forecasts the largest deficit in absolute terms, of 1.2 Mtoe.
• The net result of Member States' forecasts for 2020 renewable energy consumption is that
the EU should exceed its 20% target by over 0.3 percentage points.
• The comparatively small quantity of energy expected to be subject to the cooperation
mechanisms reflects most Member States' ability to develop domestic resources cost
effectively and their desire to reap the economic social and environmental benefits of
developing renewable energy sources nationally. However it remains the case that the
1
http://ec.europa.eu/energy/renewables/transparency_platform/transparency_platform_en.htm
cooperation mechanisms created by the Directive are available should Member States
wish to make further use of them and achieve their targets even more cost effectively.
• A total of 13 Member States also expect to exceed the interim targets that result from the
trajectory contained in the Directive and thus have a surplus in the years before 2020.
Three Member States anticipate a deficit during this period. Thus Member States may also
use the cooperation mechanisms to meet their trajectory in the years before 2020. (It is
worth recalling that the Directive requires Member States to plan to meet or exceed their
trajectory).
• Many Member States point out that these trajectories and targets require strong, new
national energy efficiency and infrastructure measures.
SUMMARY TABLE OF INTENDED USE OF COOPERATION MECHANISMS
ktoe 2011-2012 2013-2014 2015-2016 2017-2018 2020 2020 target
Austria 0 0 0 0 0 34%
Belgium 675 857 812 521 -279 deficit (12.3% Vs 13%)
Bulgaria 1-144 186-346 231-481 53-375 -140 to +289 surplus (18.7% Vs 16%)
Cyprus 0 0 0 0 0 13%
Czech Rep. 0 0 0 0 0 13%
Denmark 613-809 769-784 473-657 333-366 -337 deficit (28% Vs 30%)
Finland 0 0 0 0 0 38%
France 0 0 0 0 0 23%
Estonia 47-69 78-96 79-88 52-67 3 surplus (25.1% Vs 25%)
Germany 5930-7058 5866-6997 4657-5917 3842-5088 1387 surplus ( 18.7% Vs 18%)
Greece 70.92 (0.3%) 239.42 (1%) 4882 (2%) surplus (20% Vs 18%)
Hungary 0 0 0 0 0 13%
Ireland 251-259 255-272 403-430 138-148 0 16%
2
Italy -86 -860 -1170 -1170 deficit (16% Vs 17%)
Latvia 0 0 0 0 0 40%
Lithuania 96.32 (1.8%) 93.92 (1.7%) 79.72 (1.4%) 52.92 (0.9%) 18.3 23.3% Vs 23%
-43 to -300 2
Luxemburg deficit (5-10% Vs 11%)
Malta 2.8 6.2 7.1 14.1 -43,5 deficit (9.2% Vs 10%)
Netherlands 0 0 0 0 0 14%
Poland 519-866 705-1032 647-1162 613-1129 333 surplus (15.5% Vs 15%)
Portugal 0 0 0 0 >0 surplus (result still 31%)
Romania 0 0 0 0 0 24%
Slovenia 0 0 0 0 0 25%
Slovak rep. 56 112 134 167 143 surplus (15.2% Vs 14%)
Spain 4200 4791 2700 surplus (22.7% Vs 20%)
Sweden 1074 1273 1286 1105 486 surplus (50.2% Vs49%)
UK -119 -210 -254 40 15%
• surplus 13465-15309 10201-11869 13671-15916 7130-9272 5558-5847
• deficit -119 -296 -1114 -1170 -1873 to -2173
net surplus 13346-15190 9905-11573 12557-14802 6270-8102 3546-3718 20.3%
BLUE - Member State expecting to need a transfer in its favour
GREEN - Member State expecting to have a surplus available to transfer to another Member State
WHITE - Member State not expecting to produce a surplus or require a transfer to meet its target.
2
Commission calculations, based on applying the % provided in the report to a linear extrapolation of the
Commission's forecast of national gross final energy consumption in 2020 as reported in SEC(2008)85 vol. II
A variety of different further information is contained in the different forecast documents.
Unlike the National Renewable Energy Action Plans due in June 2010, there was no specific
format provided for the forecast documents. Some Member States3 followed the relevant part
of the National Renewable Energy Action Plan Template Document and provided forecasts of
the sectoral breakdown of the renewable energy development up to 2020. Of these, Portugal
and Sweden expect to have the highest shares of renewable electricity in 2020, of 58% and
62% respectively. Ireland and Sweden also expect to exceed the 10% target for renewable
energy in the transport sector, with 11% and 13.8% respectively. Other Member States4
provided a technology breakdown, but most concentrated on the net use of cooperation
mechanisms. All these data are available in the national forecast documents themselves, on
the Commission's Transparency Platform1.
From the information provided on the cooperation mechanisms, some interesting details
emerge. Whilst eleven Member States, if they consider using cooperation mechanisms, focus
on joint projects, seven also express an interest in using the statistical transfers instrument.
These are of course preliminary views, as Member States continue to determine the simplest
administrative and legal instruments for undertaking such transfers. In some cases, Member
States indicate they may use statistical transfers within the EU and Joint Projects with third
countries.
Four Member States (France, Greece, Italy, and Spain) note specifically that they may use
cooperation mechanisms to develop renewable energy in third countries (either in the context
of the Mediterranean Solar Plan or in the western Balkan countries). Italy is a particularly
interesting case as it is the only country anticipating a relatively large deficit in reaching its
2020 target and intending to meet the deficit through joint projects with third countries. It
mentions developing plants and connections with Switzerland, Albania, Montenegro and
Tunisia.
Some Member States identify particular technologies where cooperation mechanisms might
be used, either as part of their forecast development, or in addition. These include offshore
wind (Germany, Estonia and Ireland), hydro (Romania and Bulgaria) and biomass (Latvia).
A final point worth noting as made by several Member States is that the development of their
renewable energy sources, either to meet their targets or to take part in the use of cooperation
mechanisms under the Directive, requires new infrastructure. This highlights that
interconnector needs and the general need to reinforce the capacity of the grid in many
countries of the Union is a necessary precursor, also for achieving the targets. For the EU
overall, the share of electricity from renewable energy sources is expected to reach 33%-
35%5, accentuating the need to improve the electricity grid's ability to manage and balance
electricity flows and to improve the interconnections of the European grid to improve
stability. These issues were flagged up in the forecast documents, but as clear action to
address these issues is required under the Directive, it is anticipated that the National
Renewable Energy Action Plans due in June 2010 will contain significantly more information
on this matter.
3
Bulgaria, Cyprus, Ireland, Latvia, Malta, Romania, Slovakia, Spain and Sweden
4
Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania.
5
PRIMES and Green X 2008 modelling result.
