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Binomial Distribution

The document discusses the binomial distribution and its properties including the binomial probability function, expected value, standard deviation, and normal approximation. It provides examples of computing binomial probabilities and interpreting them. It also discusses visualizing the binomial distribution and its relationship to the normal distribution for large sample sizes.

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Harsimranjeet Singh
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128 views

Binomial Distribution

The document discusses the binomial distribution and its properties including the binomial probability function, expected value, standard deviation, and normal approximation. It provides examples of computing binomial probabilities and interpreting them. It also discusses visualizing the binomial distribution and its relationship to the normal distribution for large sample sizes.

Uploaded by

Harsimranjeet Singh
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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The Binomial Model

● The binomial probability distribution is a discrete


probability distribution function
● Useful in many situations where you have numerical
variables that are counts or whole numbers
● Classic application of the binomial model is counting
heads when flipping a coin
The Binomial Model
● The binomial model provides probabilities for random
experiments in which you are counting the number of
successes that occur. Four characteristics must be present:
1) Fixed number of trials: n
2) The only two outcomes are success and failure
3) The probability of success, p, is the same at each trial
4) The trials are independent
Binomial or Not?
● 40 randomly selected college students were asked if they
selected their major in order to get a good job.
● 35 randomly selected Americans were asked what
country their mothers were born.
● To estimate the probability that students will pass an
exam, the professor records a study group's success on
the exam.
Computing Binomial Probabilities
A Stats 10 test has 4 multiple choice questions with four
choices with one correct answer each. If we just randomly
guess on each of the 4 questions, what is the probability
that you get exactly 3 questions correct?
● There are 4 different outcomes in which you could get 3

of 4 questions correct:
Correct, Correct, Correct, Wrong
Correct, Correct, Wrong, Correct
Correct, Wrong, Correct, Correct
Wrong, Correct, Correct, Correct
Computing Binomial Probabilities
A Stats 10 test has 4 multiple choice questions with four
choices with one correct answer each. If we just randomly
guess on each of the 4 questions, what is the probability
that you get exactly 3 questions correct?
● The probability that you get one of these outcomes is

● Correct, Correct, Correct, Wrong


● = 0.25 x 0.25 x 0.25 x 0.75
3
● = 0.25 x 0.75

● = 0.01172

● The four outcomes all have the same probability so the


probability that you get exactly 3 correct is
● 4 x 0.01172 = 0.04668
Computing Binomial Probabilities
A Stats 10 test has 4 multiple choice questions with four
choices with one correct answer each. If we just randomly
guess on each of the 4 questions, what is the probability
that you get exactly 1 question correct?
a) 0.04668
b) 0.42188
c) 0.10547
d) 0.25
Binomial Distribution Function
● The formula that finds the probabilities for the binomial
distribution for probability of success p, fixed number of
trials n, and k successes is as follows:
Binomial Coefficient
● The n over the k inside the parentheses can be read as
“n choose k”
● Instead of writing all different combinations of outcomes
and counting them all one-by-one this provides us the
number of all those combinations.
Factorials
● ! - indicates a factorial
● n! = n x (n-1) x (n-2) x (n-3) x .... x 1

5! = 5 x 4 x 3 x 2 x 1 = 120

6! = 6 x 5 x 4 x 3 x 2 x 1 = 720
Binomial Coefficient Examples
4! 4•3• 2•1
= = =6
2 !(4−2)! (2 • 1)(2 • 1)

5! 5• 4•3• 2•1
= = =10
3 !(5−3)! (3 • 2 • 1)(2 • 1)
Binomial Coefficient Hints
=n =9 =n = 17

=1 =1 =1 =1
Computing Binomial Probabilities
● A Stats 10 test has 4 multiple choice questions with four
choices with one correct answer each. If we just
randomly guess on each of the 4 questions, what is the
probability that you get exactly 2 questions correct?
● Using the binomial probability function:

.25 2 (1 - .25)2 = 6 (0.0625)(0.5625)

= .2109
Computing Binomial Probabilities
● A Stats 10 test has 5 multiple choice questions with four
choices with one correct answer each. If we just
randomly guess on each of the 5 questions, what is the
probability that you get exactly 2 questions correct?
a) 0.6250
b) 0.25
c) 0.0625
d) 0.2636
Computing Binomial Probabilities
● A Stats 10 test has 5 multiple choice questions with four
choices with one correct answer each. If we just
randomly guess on each of the 5 questions, what is the
probability that you get 4 or more questions correct?
Computing Binomial Probabilities
● A Stats 10 test has 4 multiple choice questions with four
choices with one correct answer each. If we just
randomly guess on each of the 5 questions, what is the
probability that you get at least 1 question correct?
a) 0.2373
b) 0.3955
c) 0.7627
d) 0.6045
Expected Value and Standard Deviation
● The mean and standard deviation of the binomial can be
easily calculated
● Their interpretation is the same as with all distributions.
Mean is the center and standard deviation tells us how
far values typically are from the mean.
● Expected value or Mean = np
● Standard deviation =  np1− p
Expected Value Example
● A Stats 10 test has 4 multiple choice questions with one
correct answer each. If we just randomly guess on each
of the 4 questions, what is the expected number of
questions we get correct?
● Expected value = np = 4 x 0.25 = 1
● Standard deviation =  np1− p = √ 4∗0.25(1−0.25)
= 0.866

● We are expected to only get 1 out of 4 questions correct if we


just randomly guess.
Visualizing the Binomial
Visualizing the Binomial
Visualizing the Binomial
Normal approximation to the Binomial
● The shape of the binomial distribution depends on both n
and p.
● Binomial distributions are symmetric when p = 0.5, but
they are also symmetric when n is large, even if p is close
to 0 or 1.
● More specifically, when n x p is greater than or equal to
10 and n x (1-p) is greater than or equal to 10 then we
can approximate the binomial distribution with a normal
distribution with
mean = np and standard deviation =  np1− p
Normal approximation to the Binomial
According to the website nationalbikeregistry.com, at
UCLA only 3% of stolen bikes are returned to owners. If
there are 335 bikes stolen at UCLA what is the probability
that 12 or more stolen bikes will be returned?
● This is a binomial with p = 0.03 and n = 335
● Np = 335(0.03) = 10.05 and
n(1-p) = 335(0.97) = 324.95
These are both larger than or equal to 10 so we can
approximate this binomial with a normal distribution
Normal approximation to the Binomial
According to the website nationalbikeregistry.com, at
UCLA only 3% of stolen bikes are returned to owners. If
there are 335 bikes stolen at UCLA what is the probability
that 12 or more stolen bikes will be returned?
● This normal approximation has a mean of
np = 335(0.03) = 10.05
and a standard deviation of
√ np (1− p) =  3350.030.97=3.12
Normal approximation to the Binomial
According to the website nationalbikeregistry.com, at
UCLA only 3% of stolen bikes are returned to owners. If
there are 335 bikes stolen at UCLA what is the probability
that 12 or more stolen bikes will be returned?
● Now we can approach this as any other normal
distribution and z-score problem with a N(10.05, 3.12)
Normal approximation to the Binomial
According to the website nationalbikeregistry.com, at
UCLA only 3% of stolen bikes are returned to owners. If
there are 335 bikes stolen at UCLA what is the probability
that 5 or fewer stolen bikes will be returned?
a) 0.03
b) 0.15
c) 0.05
d) 0.015
Normal approximation to the Binomial
Approximately 97% of people own Snuggies. In our Stats
10 class of 171 students what is the probability that 150
students or fewer own a Snuggie?

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