LOCAL CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION PLAN

Municipality of Guimba, Nueva Ecija

LOCAL CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION PLAN (LCCAP)

Municipality of Guimba Action Plan: Strategies and approach toward

adaptation, mitigation and environmental protection (2019-2021)
 LOCAL CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION PLAN
Municipality of Guimba, Nueva Ecija

I. Introduction

Climate Change is the effect of long time global condition. Natural variability over the period of
time will ultimately lead to global warming and human is speeding up the natural process by
contributing to increase earth’s mean temperature. Greenhouse gases rapidly enhanced the
effect plus human-caused emissions were bringing apparent global warming.

Greenhouse effect is an alteration of the atmosphere natural composition. Human activities

direct and indirectly enhanced and accelerate this condition by releasing gases that modifies
earth’s protective shield.

SOME OF THE VERY HARMFUL GASES ARE:

1. Methane found in garbage and animal
waste
2. Nitrous Oxide in fertilizers, pesticides and
other chemicals
3. HaloCarbons from CFCs
4. Carbon Dioxide released from burning of
fossil fuels, oils, petrol, coal among
others
5. Carbons from burning of grass, dried
crops, trees and others

Adverse effect of the earth’s mean temperature

1. Rise in Sea level because of polar ice caps and glacier meltdown due to increased
temperature. Research provides that water level rise 1.8mm annually.
2. Stronger tropical cyclones and extreme weather disturbance
3. Dry spell and extended drought because of extreme heat
4. Increased precipitation due to increased surface water evaporation

Philippines archipelagic characteristic and location attributed to its condition of being prone to
almost all type of natural disaster or cataclysmic scenario. Situated in the Pacific ring of fire
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Municipality of Guimba, Nueva Ecija

where 2 major tectonic plates traversed, tip point location for the western north pacific basin
where more than 60 percent of tropical depressions formed and sitting in an open west
Philippine Sea and Pacific ocean with 17,000 km of coastline all waiting for tsunami or tidal
waves from all directions.

Rise in sea level means more storm surges on Philippine coast. Stronger Tropical cyclones
means more and stronger devastating effect in the country. Dry spell will greatly affect food
production being an agricultural country. Increased precipitation means more flood and longer
submersion because of rise in sea or ocean level. It will serve as catch basin for increased rain
induced by increased water precipitation.

OVERVIEW

According to PAGASA, climate change scenarios are developed using climate models (UNFCCC).
These models use mathematical representations of the climate system, simulating the physical
and dynamical processes that determine global/regional climate. They range from simple, one-
dimensional models to more complex ones such as global climate models (known as GCMs),
which model the atmosphere and oceans, and their interactions with land surfaces. They also
model change on a regional scale (referred to as regional climate models), typically estimating
change in areas in grid boxes that are approximately several hundred kilometers wide. It should
be noted that GCMs/RCMs provide only an average change in climate for each grid box, although
realistically climates can vary considerably within each grid. Climate models used to develop
climate change scenarios are run using different forcing such as the changing greenhouse gas
concentrations. These emission scenarios known as the SRES (Special Report on Emission
Scenarios) developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to give the
range of plausible future climate.

Climate change is driven by factors such as changes in the atmospheric concentration of

greenhouse gases and aerosols, land cover and radiation, and their combinations, which then
result in what is called radiative forcing (positive or warming and negative or cooling effect).
We do not know how these different drivers will specifically affect the future climate, but the
model simulation will provide estimates of its plausible ranges.

A number of climate models have been used in developing climate scenarios. The capacity to do
climate modeling usually resides in advanced meteorological agencies and in international
research laboratories for climate modeling such as the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and
Research of the UK Met Office (in the United kingdom), the National Center for Atmospheric
Research and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (in the United States), the Max Planck
Institute for Meteorology (in Germany), the Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis
(in Canada), the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (in Australia),
the Meteorological Research Institute of the Japan Meteorological Agency (in Japan), and
numerous others. These centers have been developing their climate models and continuously
generate new versions of these models in order address the limitations and uncertainties
inherent in models.

For the climate change scenarios in the Philippines, the PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for
Impact Studies) model was used. It is a PC-based regional climate model developed at the UK
Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research to facilitate impact, vulnerability
and adaptation assessments in developing countries where capacities to do modeling are
limited. Two time slices centered on 2020 (2006-2035) and 2050 (2036-2065) were used in the
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Municipality of Guimba, Nueva Ecija

climate simulations using three emission scenarios; namely, the A2 (high-range emission
scenario), the A1B (medium- range emission scenario) and the B2 (low-range emission
scenario).

The high-range emission scenario connotes that society is based on self-reliance, with
continuously growing population, a regionally-oriented economic development but with
fragmented per capita economic growth and technological change. On the other hand, the mid-
range emission scenario indicates a future world of very rapid economic growth, with the global
population peaking in mid-century and declining thereafter and there is rapid introduction of
new and more efficient technologies with energy generation balanced across all sources. The
low-range emission scenario, in contrast, indicates a world with local solutions to economic,
social, and environmental sustainability, with continuously increasing global population, but at
a rate lower than of the high-range, intermediate levels of economic development, less rapid and
more diverse technological change but oriented towards environment protection and social
equity.

In 2009, the Government of the Philippines initiated the implementation of the Millennium
Development Goals Fund (MDGF) Joint Program entitled “Strengthening the Philippines’
Institutional Capacity to Adapt to Climate Change”. It is a three-year program funded by the
Government of Spain through the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) Philippines
and the various UN agencies (UNEP, FAO, WHO, UN Habitat, and others).

SUMMARY
 Annual mean temperatures (average of maximum and minimum temperatures) in all
areas in the country are expected to rise by 0.9 °C to 1.1 °C in 2020 and by 1.8 °C to 2.2
°C in 2050;

 Likewise, all seasonal mean temperatures will also have increases in the two time slices
(presented in tables), and these increases during the four seasons (e.g., DJF, MAM, JJA
and SON) are quite consistent in all the provinces;

 In terms of seasonal rainfall change, generally, there is a substantial spatial difference in

the projected changes in rainfall in 2020 and 2050 in most parts of the Philippines, with
reduction in rainfall in most provinces during the summer season (MAM) making the
usually dry season drier , while rainfall increases are likely in most areas of Luzon and
Visayas during the southwest monsoon (JJA) and the SON seasons, making these seasons
still wetter, and thus with likelihood of both droughts and floods in areas where these
are projected;

 The northeast monsoon (DJF) season rainfall is projected to increase, particularly for
areas characterized by Type II climate with potential for flooding enhanced;

 During the southwest monsoon season (JJA), larger increases in rainfall is expected in
provinces in Luzon (0.9% to 63%) and Visayas (2% to 22%) but generally decreasing
trends in most of the provinces in Mindanao in 2050;

 However, projections for extreme events in 2020 and 2050 show that hot temperatures
(indicated by the number of days with maximum temperature exceeding 35 °C) will
continue to become more frequent, number of dry days (days with less than 2.5mm of
rain) will increase in all parts of the country and heavy daily rainfall (exceeding 300mm)
events will also continue to increase in number in Luzon and Visayas.
 LOCAL CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION PLAN
Municipality of Guimba, Nueva Ecija

THE THREE OUTCOMES OF THIS JOINT PROGRAMME ARE:

1. Climate risk reduction mainstreamed into key national and selected local development
plans and processes;
2. Enhanced national and local capacity to develop, manage and administer projects
addressing climate change risks; and
3. Coping mechanisms improved through pilot adaptation projects.

Central to achieving the three outcomes is developing the capacity of local government
units in the Philippines to mainstream climate change adaptation in their development plans,
programs and activities. Planning for and implementing climate change adaptation will require
detailed information on plausible future climates, such as changes in temperatures, rainfall and
frequency of extreme weather events.

SCENARIO

Climate Projections in 2020 and 2050 in Provinces in Region 3

The projected seasonal temperature increase, seasonal rainfall change and frequency of
extreme events in 2020 and 2050 under the medium-range emission scenario in the provinces
in Region 3 are presented in Table a, Table b and Table c, respectively.

To use the tables and arrive at values of seasonal mean temperature and seasonal rainfall in
2020 and 2050 in any of the provinces, the projections are added to the observed values
(presented in each of the tables).

For example, in Nueva Ecija, the projected values in 2020 are:

a. DJF mean temperature = (25.3 °C+0.9 °C) = 26.2 °C;
b. DJF rainfall = {155.2mm+155.2(7.5%)mm} = (155.2+11.6)mm or 166.8mm;
c. number of days with Tmax > 35 °C in Cabanatuan during the 2006-2035 period
(centered at 2020) = 3,271;
d. number of dry days in Cabanatuan during the 2006-2035 period (centered at 2020) =
6,117; and e. number of days with rainfall > 300mm in Cabanatuan during the 2006-
2035 period (centered at 2020) = 2.

OBSERVED BASELINE CHANGE IN 2020 CHANGE IN 2050

(1971-2000) (2006-2035) (2036-2065)
DJF MAM JJA SON DJF MAM JJA SON DJF MAM JJA SON
Region 3
Aurora 24.5 27.1 27.9 26.7 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0
Bataan 26.4 28.7 27.6 27.3 1.0 1.1 0.8 1.0 2.0 2.1 1.7 1.9
Bulacan 25.6 27.9 27.1 26.7 0.9 1.1 0.9 1.0 1.9 2.1 1.7 1.9
Nueva Ecija 25.3 27.7 27.5 26.8 0.9 1.1 0.9 1.0 2.0 2.1 1.8 2.0
Pampanga 26.0 28.3 27.5 27.1 1.0 1.1 0.9 1.0 2.1 2.2 1.8 2.0
Tarlac 26.1 28.3 27.8 27.3 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.1 2.2 2.2 1.9 2.1
Zambales 26.3 28.3 27.4 27.2 1.0 1.1 0.9 1.0 2.1 2.1 1.7 1.9

Table: Seasonal Temperature increases (in degrees Celsius) 2020-2050 under medium-range
emission scenario
 LOCAL CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION PLAN
Municipality of Guimba, Nueva Ecija

OBSERVED BASELINE (1971-2000) CHANGE IN 2020 (2006-2035) CHANGE IN 2050 (2036-2065)

DJF MAM JJA SON DJF MAM JJA SON DJF MAM JJA SON
Region 3
Aurora 615.7 546.4 768.7 1151.1 -0.3 -17.1 6.7 5.8 8.7 -29.2 7.4 -5.7
Bataan 71.7 368.7 1326.2 872.6 2.7 -5.2 9.4 -0.4 -8.2 -8.1 29.1 1.5
Bulacan 212.4 288.9 1041.4 842.1 4.2 -23.0 12.8 -2.9 -13.2 -36.4 23.6 -3.3
Nueva Ecija 155.2 316.5 995.0 745.0 7.5 -13.8 10.1 1.6 -7.4 -25.7 22.7 -2.4
Pampanga 120.8 320.6 1030.4 785.2 16.3 -18.8 4.4 -5.1 -15.4 -26.4 13.9 -7.2
Tarlac 43.4 265.4 1193.5 644.3 26.0 - -1.6 -9.6 -6.7 - 8.8 -5.5
13.7 18.2
Zambales 40.9 368.0 1793.9 872.0 34.2 -4.5 13.3 -1.6 -2.2 - 31.4 5.6
21.6

Table: Seasonal Rainfall change in percentage 2020 to 2050 under medium-range emission
scenario

II. Localized (scenario)

Local Government Unit of Guimba, Nueva Ecija Profile

Brief History of Guimba

Guimba was formerly a place of wilderness with virgin forest found in the north and south of
the Binituan River. The vast plain at the north of the river were formerly a place where tall
grasses grew, dotted by trees all over the area up to the place now called San Andres. From this
place northward to Talugtug is a dense forest where bounty of wildlife existed.

The original settlers mostly came from the Ilocos Region and Pangasinan. The pioneering clans
were those of Ramoses, Sawits and others. People from San Miguel and Bustos of the province of
Bulacan also came, which can be traced from the descendant clans of Dela Cruzes and the De
Guzmans who settled in one of the Barangays of Guimba, now called San Miguel.

Founding the soil productive for agricultural purposes, the early settlers cleared the place, cut
down trees and burned vegetative growth. The trees were sawed into lumber out of which their
houses were constructed. Apart from agriculture, the people also engaged in clay pot making
and hardening was more popularly called back then “Gebba” pronounced in an Ilocano accent.

The original name of the municipality was San Juan in honor of their patron saint. Stories told
that the natives were busy then making clay pots when some foreigners passed by asking the
natives what the place is called. Misinterpreting what the foreigners asked, the people
responded and said “Gebba” thinking that the foreigners were asking what they are doing. The
foreigners repeatedly pronounced Gebba with a nasalized accent “Ghemba” which later spread
and became popular. The leaders then were convinced to call the municipality San Juan de
Guimba preserving the old name with added popularized name the foreigners called the place.

On march 13, 1911, the Philippine Commission on Geography officially adopted the name San
Juan de Guimba, which was later shortened and changed to Guimba hence, the name that until
now is being used. Guimba, originally had an area of more or less 29,000 hectares occupying
portions of Talugtug. When Talugtug was declared a town in 1948, some areas were taken
making the size of Guimba smaller. Before its formal creation and declaration as a municipality,
Guimba was then a part and under the political jurisdiction of Aliaga, Nueva Ecija.

Other infrastructures like the public market and the municipal plaza were put up now the
Midtown Freedom Park. The new Municipal Building, Municipal gym, farm to market roads
among other infrastructure projects benefiting the populace..
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Municipality of Guimba, Nueva Ecija

GEOGRAPHIC SIZE AND LOCATION

Guimba is situated at the western part of the province of Nueva Ecija and is bounded by several
municipalities covered by the provinces of Nueva Ecija and Tarlac. Guimba is located one
hundred fifty three (153) kilometers northwest of Manila via Cabanatuan city route. This is the
most common route before the opening of SCTEX and TPLEX..

The municipality covers a land area of 25,853.2330 hectares spread out in 64 barangays, four of
which are districts within the poblacion of heavily populated urban area .

TOPOGRAPHY, SOIL CLASSIFICATION AND SLOPE

The Municipality of Guimba is flat with 0 to 3% slope. Its is suited for agricultural, commercial
or industrial development. With 0 to 500 meters above sea level, Guimba is within the
classification of production land having 2 soil types namely silt loam representing 67.37% and
clay loam 32.63%..

POPULATION SIZE AND DISTRIBUTION

Base on the 2010 National Census of Population, the Town has a total population of 104,894
while the current statistic show significant increase with current population at 113,000.

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

URBAN BARANGAYS

Saranay 2097 2139 2182 2226 2270 2316 2362 2410 2458 2508 2558

St. John 1823 1859 1897 1935 1974 2013 2054 2095 2137 2180 2224

Sta. Veronica 3841 3918 3997 4077 4159 4243 4328 4415 4504 4594 4686

Sto Cristo 2885 2943 3002 3063 3124 3187 3251 3317 3383 3451 3521

RURAL BARANGAYS

Agcano 261 266 271 277 282 288 294 300 306 312 318

Ayos lomboy 583 595 607 619 632 644 657 670 684 698 712

Bacayao 2374 2422 2470 2520 2571 2622 2675 2729 2784 2839 2897

Bagong Barrio 1059 1081 1102 1125 1147 1170 1194 1218 1242 1267 1293

Balbalino 611 623 636 648 661 675 688 702 716 731 745

Balingog East 1744 1779 1815 1852 1889 1927 1965 2005 2045 2086 2128
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Municipality of Guimba, Nueva Ecija

Balingog West 655 668 682 695 709 724 738 753 768 784 799

Banitan 1553 1584 1616 1649 1682 1716 1750 1785 1821 1858 1895

Bantug 3166 3229 3294 3361 3428 3497 3567 3639 3712 3787 3863

Bulakid 492 501 512 522 532 543 554 565 576 588 600

Bunol 3514 3584 3656 3730 3805 3881 3959 4039 4120 4203 4288

Caballero 1861 1899 1937 1976 2016 2056 2097 2140 2183 2226 2271

Cabaruan 1718 1752 1787 1823 1860 1897 1936 1974 2014 2055 2096

Caingin Tabing Ilog 1147 1170 1193 1217 1242 1267 1292 1318 1344 1372 1399

Calem 840 856 874 891 909 927 946 965 984 1004 1024

Camiling 1904 1943 1982 2022 2062 2104 2146 2189 2233 2278 2324

Cardinal 562 574 585 597 609 621 634 646 659 673 686

Casongsong 1581 1612 1645 1678 1712 1746 1781 1817 1854 1891 1929

Catimon 1248 1273 1299 1325 1352 1379 1407 1435 1464 1493 1523

Cavite 3364 3431 3500 3571 3642 3715 3790 3866 3944 4023 4104

Cawayang Bugtong 4401 4489 4580 4672 4765 4861 4959 5059 5160 5264 5370

Consuelo 815 832 848 865 883 901 919 937 956 975 995

Culong 1966 2006 2046 2087 2129 2172 2216 2260 2306 2352 2399

Escano 357 364 371 379 386 394 402 410 418 427 435

Faigal 1094 1116 1138 1161 1184 1208 1232 1257 1282 1308 1334

Galvan 1570 1601 1633 1666 1700 1734 1769 1804 1841 1878 1915

Guiset 1453 1482 1512 1542 1573 1605 1637 1670 1703 1737 1772

Lamorito 1030 1050 1071 1093 1115 1137 1160 1183 1207 1231 1256

Lennec 3906 3984 4065 4146 4230 4315 4401 4490 4580 4672 4766

Macamias 946 965 984 1004 1024 1044 1065 1087 1109 1131 1154

Macapabellag 526 536 547 558 569 581 592 604 617 629 642

Macatcatuit 2425 2473 2523 2574 2626 2678 2732 2787 2843 2900 2959

Manacsac 2917 2976 3036 3097 3159 3223 3287 3353 3421 3490 3560
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Municipality of Guimba, Nueva Ecija

Manggang Marikit 2523 2574 2625 2678 2732 2787 2843 2900 2958 3018 3078

Maturanoc 6028 6149 6273 6399 6527 6659 6792 6929 7068 7210 7355

Maybubon 3279 3344 3412 3480 3550 3622 3694 3769 3844 3922 4000

Naglabrahan 626 639 652 665 678 692 706 720 734 749 764

Nagpandayan 2977 3037 3098 3160 3224 3288 3355 3422 3491 3561 3632

Narvacan 1 919 938 956 976 995 1015 1036 1056 1078 1099 1121

Narvacan 2 1804 1840 1877 1915 1953 1993 2033 2073 2115 2158 2201

Pacac 2407 2455 2505 2555 2606 2659 2712 2767 2822 2879 2937

Partida 1 1467 1496 1527 1557 1588 1620 1653 1686 1720 1755 1790

Partida 2 726 740 755 770 786 802 818 834 851 868 886

Pasong inchick 2274 2320 2367 2414 2463 2512 2563 2614 2667 2721 2775

San Agustin 981 1001 1021 1041 1062 1084 1105 1128 1150 1173 1197

San Andres 1353 1380 1408 1436 1465 1495 1525 1555 1587 1619 1651

San Bernardino 1280 1306 1332 1359 1386 1414 1443 1472 1501 1531 1562

San Marcelino 513 523 533 544 555 566 578 589 601 613 625

San Miguel 2017 2058 2099 2141 2184 2228 2273 2319 2365 2413 2461

San Rafael 1636 1669 1702 1737 1771 1807 1843 1880 1918 1957 1996

San Roque 5530 5641 5754 5870 5988 6108 6231 6356 6484 6614 6747

Sinulatan 1210 1234 1259 1284 1310 1336 1363 1390 1418 1447 1476

Sta. Ana 1147 1170 1193 1217 1242 1267 1292 1318 1344 1372 1399

Sta. Cruz 1522 1553 1584 1616 1648 1681 1715 1750 1785 1821 1857

Sta. Lucia 1947 1987 2027 2067 2109 2151 2194 2239 2284 2329 2376

Subol 1723 1758 1793 1829 1866 1903 1942 1981 2021 2061 2103

Tampac 1 1055 1076 1098 1120 1142 1165 1189 1213 1237 1262 1287

Tampac 2&3 1191 1215 1239 1264 1289 1315 1342 1369 1396 1424 1453

Triala 2668 2721 2776 2832 2889 2947 3006 3066 3128 3191 3255

Yuzon 804 820 837 854 871 888 906 924 943 962 981

Total Population 115890 118220 120596 123020 125493 128015 130588 133213 135891 138622 141408
 LOCAL CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION PLAN
Municipality of Guimba, Nueva Ecija

ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT

The entire 60 barangays (rural areas) are free from air pollution while 4 poblacion districts are
experiencing slight air pollution all accounted from vehicle fumes considering that the
municipality is now the alternative access way of bus and truck companies plying the
SCTEX/TPLEX route from Manila, Pampanga and Tarlac to nearby municipalities and Northern
most points of Luzon. 1 emission testing center is in place and Ordinances are kept tuned up to
growing concern of protecting the environment.

Collection and dumping of garbage are systematically handled with materials recovery facilities
in place at various points. Burning remains the primary practice of garbage disposal in the rural
areas accounting to 76.22% while dumping in backyard pit at 8.91%. The local government unit
passed and enacted numerous environmental protection ordinances and resolutions to
discourage burning of classified hazardous waste materials and promoting waste segregation in
support and full compliance of national laws. Other programs are currently implemented to
lessen dumping of non-biodegradable materials.

A hazard is the potential for harm. In practical terms, a hazard often is associated with a
condition, if left unattended and addressed, can result in “Disaster”. Identifying hazards and
finding ways to contain the impact or potential damage it can cause reduces it to just hazard or
dangers having the capability and capacity to contain the factors that will make potential risk to
full blown disaster.

Guimba is located at the western part of Nueva Ecija having flat topography with sloping from 0
to 3%. 36 kilometers away from Cabanatuan City and 33 kilometers away from Tarlac.

Monsoon wind:

There are two types’ monsoon winds in the Philippines, the southwest monsoon (May-October)
or known as the "Habagat" and the dry winds of the northeast monsoon (November-April) as
the "Amihan". The Habagat season is characterized by cold and hot humid weather, frequent
heavy rainfall and typhoons, and a prevailing wind from the west. The Amihan season is
characterized by hot temperatures, little or no rainfall, and a prevailing wind from the east.
Having no coastal area and being almost in the middle of Luzon, Guimba enjoys the luxury of
having a flat land.

Typhoon:

Like all of Nueva Ecija, Guimba suffers agricultural production losses due to typhoons being
frequently visited by almost all typhoons coming from the Pacific Ocean hitting land on the east
section of Luzon. With the aid of installed irrigation system providing the farmers optional
adjustment on production cycle, Guimba manages to be agriculturally productive even in the
presence of numerous storms that frequented the municipality.

Flooding:

To consider flooding as “Hazard” being of “Potential” risk to lives, properties and food
production, the following historical disaster events is taken into full consideration

Two (2) accounts of flooding that submerged almost all of Guimba Excerpts:
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Municipality of Guimba, Nueva Ecija

The Pangasinan Plain suffers from recurrent and destructive floods. The catastrophic floods of
July-August 1972 and May 1976 inundated the entire Pangasinan Plain including the flood
plains of the Tarlac River. The central part of Tarlac province including the municipalities of

Gerona, Tarlac, Paniqui and Moncada. The water immediately flowed to nearby municipalities
and Guimba is less than 20 kilometers away of Gerona. The flooding also came from overflow of
Binituan river that runs from Urdaneta Pangasinan traversing Guimba before joining other
water channels.

Based on result of the field geo-hazard survey conducted by the Mines and Geosciences Bureau,
the Municipality of Guimba is vulnerable to flooding with eight (8) barangays identified that are
susceptible to flooding which describes as to the type and the cause of the hazard.
Source: MGB RIII Geo-Hazard Assessment of Nueva Ecija

• Active riverbank erosion is observed in twentysix (26) barangays (Sta. Cruz, San Bernardino,
Caballero, Triala, Culong, Bagong Barrio, Pasong Inchic, San Rafael, Casongsong, Bacayao,
Macamias, Guiset, San Andres, Ayos Lomboy, Macapabellag, Faigal, Cavite, Sta. Lucia, San Miguel,
Manacsac, Caingin-Tabing Ilog, Calem, Partida II, Macatcatuit, Narvacan II and Sta. Veronica.

• There are sixteen (16) barangays with none to low susceptibility to flooding (Tampac I,
Tampac II, Tampac III, Sta. Cruz, San Bernardino, Caballero, Triala, Consuelo, San Roque,
Manggang Marikit, San Rafael, Naglabrahan, Cardinal, Magpandayan, Catimon and Banitan).

• There are thirteen (14) barangays with low to moderate susceptibility to flooding. Most of the
residential area has low flooding susceptibility. Identified low-lying and agricultural areas of the
barangay has moderate to high susceptibility (Bagong Barrio, Pasong Inchic, Casongsong, Guiset,
San Andres, Camiling, Cabaruan, Lamorito, Maybubon, San Agustin, Magpandayan, Balingog
East, Bantug and Sto. Cristo).

• There are twelve (12) barangays with moderate to high susceptibility to flooding. The
barangay has naturally low-lying areas and portions adjacent to active creeks and river channel
(Culong, Cawayan Bugtong, Narvacan I, Macamias, Ayos Lomboy, San Miguel, Galvan, Yuzon,
Agcano, Partida I, Macatcatuit and Saranay).

• There are sixteen (16) barangays with low, moderate to high susceptibility to flooding. The
barangay has naturally low-lying areas and portions located near active creeks and river
channel (Pacac, Bacayao, Balbalino, San Marcelino, Saint John (Poblacion), Macapabellag, Sta.
Ana, Faigal, Sinulatan, Sta. Lucia, Bulakid, Escano, Manacsac, Balingog West, Subol and
Maturanoc).
• There are eight (7) barangays with high susceptibility to flooding. These barangays have
portions adjacent to active creeks and river channel, and has naturally low-lying areas (Cavite,
Caingin, Tabing Ilog, Calem, Partida II, Lennec, Narvacan II and Sta. Veronica).

MGB GEO Hazard map Updating and Risk Assessment of Nueva Ecija
In line with the recent Presidential Directive and NDCC resolutions following the February 17
Southern Leyte landslide incident, and the need to fast track the geohazard mapping program
along the eastern seaboard of the Philippines, geologists from the Mines and Geosciences

Bureau-Regional Office III (MGB-R3) conducted a geohazard assessment of the barangays in the
municipalities/cities in the province of Nueva Ecija. Each barangay was classified according to
their susceptibility to landslide and/or flooding.

For landslide susceptibility, the rating parameters are as follows:

High
 LOCAL CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION PLAN
Municipality of Guimba, Nueva Ecija

 Presence of active and/ or recent landslides

 Presence of numerous and large tension cracks along slope adjacent to the community
and that would directly affect the community
 Areas with drainages that are prone to landslides damming
 Steep/Unstable slopes consisting of loose materials

Moderate
 Areas with indicative and/or old landslides
 Presence of small tension cracks along slope and are located away from the community
 Moderate slopes

Low
 Low to gently
 sloping • No presence of tension cracks
 Each barangay was rated into low, moderate or high for flooding susceptibility
with the rating parameters as follows:

Low
 0 – 0.5 meter depth of floodwaters

Moderate
 0.51 – 1 meter depth of floodwaters

High
 > 1 meter depth of floodwaters

With regards to landslide susceptibility, the barangays assessed include areas that are located
on and/or near slopes and riverbanks and have the potential for landslide occurrence. The
rating of each barangay presented herein particularly refers to the barangay proper since
majority of the population is located there. It should be noted, however, that the rating does not
necessarily reflect those of the sitios. These barangays were presented with a Landslide Threat
Advisory informing their susceptibility to landslides and the corresponding recommendations
particular to the barangay.

The flood susceptibility of the barangays in the ten (10) municipalities/city was also assessed.
Barangays classified with moderate to high susceptibility to flooding are located in identified
low portions of the barangay, in topographically low-lying areas and/or near a major river
system. These barangays were presented with a Geohazard Threat Advisory informing their
susceptibility to flooding and the corresponding recommendations particular to the barangay.
The localized flooding in the municipality of Guimba that subside after the rains is attributable
to inadequate drainage system during periods of heavy unusual precipitation with large volume
of rainfall.

Earthquake

Having no Active fault that runs throughout the political and juridical territory of Guimba, 3 are
spread out at the east, west and northern zone within a 100 kilometers radius of Guimba that
made the Municipality belted within the earthquake zone chain.

The Philippine trench is hypothesized to be younger than 8-9 million years ago. The central part
of the Philippine fault formed during the Plio-Pleistocene times is considered to be an active
depression of the earth’s crust.The trench formed from a collision between
the Palawan and Zamboanga plates. This caused a change in geological processes going from a
convergent zone to a subduction zone. The subduction zone is located west to east of
 LOCAL CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION PLAN
Municipality of Guimba, Nueva Ecija

the Philippine Islands. The rate of subduction on these plates is estimated to be about 15 cm per
year. A convergent zone borders an estimate of 45% of the Philippine Trench today.

Although there are vast areas of subduction zones, some authors have considered this region to
have low seismic activity, though the USGS has recorded several earthquakes with magnitude ≥
7.2 in the region as shown by the map to the side. Most recently, in 2012 the Philippine Trench
experienced an earthquake of Mw 7.6. It hit the trench with a hypocenter depth of
34.9 km.[10] Areas adjacent to the subduction zones however, have experienced large seismic
activity. In 1897, northern Samar experienced a Ms 7.3 earthquake while in 1924 SE Mindanao
experienced one with a Ms 8.2.

BIO-Chemical Hazard: NONE (Flat land devoted for agriculture)

In terms of landslide susceptibility, no barangays in Guimba have the potential for landslide
occurrence having flat topography with 0 to 3% sloping.

Base on the data below the following local scenarios are to be expected:

OBSERVED BASELINE CHANGE IN 2020 CHANGE IN 2050

(1971-2000) (2006-2035) (2036-2065)
DJF MAM JJA SON DJF MAM JJA SON DJF MAM JJA SON
Region 3
Aurora 24.5 27.1 27.9 26.7 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0
Bataan 26.4 28.7 27.6 27.3 1.0 1.1 0.8 1.0 2.0 2.1 1.7 1.9
Bulacan 25.6 27.9 27.1 26.7 0.9 1.1 0.9 1.0 1.9 2.1 1.7 1.9
Nueva Ecija 25.3 27.7 27.5 26.8 0.9 1.1 0.9 1.0 2.0 2.1 1.8 2.0
Pampanga 26.0 28.3 27.5 27.1 1.0 1.1 0.9 1.0 2.1 2.2 1.8 2.0
Tarlac 26.1 28.3 27.8 27.3 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.1 2.2 2.2 1.9 2.1
Zambales 26.3 28.3 27.4 27.2 1.0 1.1 0.9 1.0 2.1 2.1 1.7 1.9
Table: Seasonal Temperature increases (in deg celcius) 2020-2050 under medium-range
emission scenario

1. The entire municipality will get warmer by 0.9 to 1.1deg. Celcius in 2020 and about 1.8
to 2.2deg Celcius in 2050
2. December to February will not be colder in 2050 than today
 LOCAL CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION PLAN
Municipality of Guimba, Nueva Ecija

OBSERVED BASELINE CHANGE IN 2020 CHANGE IN 2050

(1971-2000) (2006-2035) (2036-2065)
DJF MA JJA SON DJF MA JJA SO DJF MA JJA SO
M M N M N
Region 3
Aurora 615. 546. 768.7 1151. -0.3 - 6.7 5.8 8.7 - 7.4 -5.7
7 4 1 17.1 29.2
Bataan 71.7 368. 1326. 872.6 2.7 -5.2 9.4 -0.4 -8.2 -8.1 29. 1.5
7 2 1
Bulacan 212. 288. 1041. 842.1 4.2 - 12. -2.9 - - 23. -3.3
4 9 4 23.0 8 13. 36.4 6
2
Nueva 155. 316. 995.0 745.0 7.5 - 10. 1.6 -7.4 - 22. -2.4
Ecija 2 5 13.8 1 25.7 7
Pampang 120. 320. 1030. 785.2 16. - 4.4 -5.1 - - 13. -7.2
a 8 6 4 3 18.8 15. 26.4 9
4
Tarlac 43.4
265. 1193. 644.3 26. - -1.6 -9.6 -6.7
- 8.8 -5.5
4 5 0 13.7 18.2
Zambales 40.9 368. 1793. 872.0 34. -4.5 13. -1.6 -2.2 - 31. 5.6
0 9 2 3 21.6 4
Table: Seasonal Rainfall change in percentage 2020 to 2050 under medium-range emission
scenario

1. Less rainfall during the months of March to May where harvesting and planting of
palay begins
2. More rains pouring during the harvesting period for main crop season.
3. Increased rainfall and intensified by southwest monsoon July to August
4. Increased rainfall and intensified by northeast monsoon December to February
5. 166.84 mm expected average rainfall December to February (2006-2035)
6. 6.272.82 mm expected average rainfall March to May (2006-2035)
7. 1095.5mm expected average rainfall June to August (2006-2035)
8. 756.92mm expected average rainfall September to November (2006-2035)
9. 143.72mm expected average rainfall December to February (2036-2065)
10. 235.16mm expected average rainfall March to May (2036-2065)
11. 1220.87mm expected average rainfall June to August (2036-2065)
12. 727.12mm expected average rainfall September to November (2036-2065)

III. Risk and Vulnerability Assessment (RVA) of Climate Change

The entire Nueva Ecija including the Municipality of Guimba will experience an average increase
of 1deg Celcius hotter/warmer for 2006-2035 and 2deg celcius hotter/warmer for 2036-2065.
Wet season will have an increase in rainfall thus more floods and water staying longer than the
receding average time we have today considering the flat land of Guimba and altered by TPLEX
and SCTEX natural water channel while longer drought is imminent during dry season.
Stronger tropical depressions and floods are the major risk for the Municipality but
preparations on response, mitigation and risk reduction was already planned by the Municipal
DRRM.

ADDRESSING THE CLIMATE CHANGE: ADAPTATION PLAN

This plan will focus on the outcome of the joint program of Government of Spain through the
United Nations Development Program (UNDP) Philippines and the various UN agencies (UNEP,
FAO, WHO, UN Habitat, and others) namely:
 LOCAL CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION PLAN
Municipality of Guimba, Nueva Ecija

1. Climate risk reduction mainstreamed into key national and selected local
development plans and processes;
2. Enhanced national and local capacity to develop, manage and administer projects
addressing climate change risks; and
3. Coping mechanisms improved through pilot adaptation projects.

Adopting the national framework and objective “Central to achieving the three outcomes is
developing the capacity of local government units in the Philippines to mainstream climate
change adaptation in their development plans, programs and activities”.

IV. Goals and Objectives

 To systematically project impacts of climate change and manage the effect to vulnerable
sectors
 To provide scientific information for risk reduction and mitigation toward increased
resiliency
 To encourage community participation/involvement in countering the impacts of
climate change

V. STRATEGIES

Central adaptation strategies

 Development of agri-tech that can produce crops with high adaptation to extreme
temperature and ways to minimize or counter the effect of change in temperature.
 IEC campaigns to strengthen awareness and encourage the people of Guimba to be
involve in climate change adaptation programs and activities
 Enhance preparedness, response and prevention
 Empower all sectors including the masses

Mitigation strategies

 Source reduction: Implementation of Municipal Ordinance regarding the reduction of

usage of plastic bags and alike. The No Segregation no Collection Policy in the collection
of waste materials. And enforcement of penalties and fees on violators of the ordinances.
In order to determine and contain gas emission.
 Enactment of ordinances reducing and or prohibiting the use of harmful gases that
rapidly depletes the ozone layer or gases that greatly harm the protective shield of the
earth and such other ordinances that helps mitigate the short to long term effect of
climate change. i.e. geoengineering to be part of local building permit requirements.i.e.
reduction in the use of fossil fuels by promoting alternative energy use.
 Reduction of green houses gases emission through extensive IEC campaign
 Use of renewable energy as energy sources
 Clean and green programs
 LOCAL CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION PLAN
Municipality of Guimba, Nueva Ecija

VI PROGRAMS, PROJECTS AND ACTIVITIES

Area/Sector Vulnerability Socio-Econ. Impact Measures/ targets Activities Agency/ Proposed Inclusive
Partner Budget year
Agriculture 1 to 2deg Decrease in crop Development of Provide MAO and 550,000 2019-
Celcius production and new variety that can seminars DA with (proposed 2021
temperature decrease in buying be planted outside and the help of )
increase will capability of the of the regular trainings rice
result to farmers planting season. in the research
production Introduce or introductio institute
loss for both provide information n of new
Palay and of tolerant new varieties
vegetables varieties and new
being grown in cycle of
the crop
Municipality production
Drought will Low yield in crop Introduce new Tie up MAO/ 550,000 2019-
result in poor production varieties that are with DA/IRRI/P (proposed 2021
irrigation drought tolerant or research RRI )
adaptative to institution Others
climate change s
MAO
Distributio
n of new
varieties
MIO
Informatio
n
disseminat
ion on
proper
care or
handling of
new
varieties
Rise in Low production Promote Organic Enhance MAO/MEN 1,200,000 2019-
temperature yield farming- use of organic RO/DA (proposed 2021
adversely organic fertilizer to fertilizer )
affect soil and increase moisture local
crop content of the soil production

Distributio MAO
n to
farmers
MIO
IEC on
organic
farming
(switch/tr
ansition
from
commercia
l to
organic)
Longer hours Low production Introduce new Distributio MAO/DA/ 550,000 2019-
before flood yield varieties that are n of new PRRI/IRRI (proposed 202`
recedes: tolerant to flooding rice )
destroys crops Production losses varieties

IEC on new MIO

breed
handling

Build MEO
waterways
canal
system
and flood
controls
INFRASTRUC Absence of Forewarned public Setup early Set-up or MDRRMO/ 200,000 2019-
TURE early warning warning system construct MEO (2018) 2021
system in additional 200,000
some areas early (2019)
that are warning 400,000
identified as gauge and (2020)
 LOCAL CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION PLAN
Municipality of Guimba, Nueva Ecija

flood system
susceptible
IEC on MIO/MDR
prevention RMO
Past building Loss of income for Enactment of SB Mun. 20,000/yr
design may not commercial resolution urging Enactment Engineerin
withstand buildings and loss of the owner to of a g office
stronger life and property reinforce the resolution
typhoons structural integrity
of the building IEC MIO/MEO

Strict
New buildings implementation of IEC MIO/MEO
may not building code Monitoring
withstand high for
water level complianc
floodings and e
stronger
typhoons
Strict
Construction implementation of MIO/MEO/
of structures zoning ordinance IEC MPDO
within the Monitoring
hazard areas for
complianc
e
ENVIRONME Less Natural Low capability of Clean and green Tree MENRO/p 200,000/y 2019-
NT protection soil to hold flood program planting ublic and r 2021
PROTECTIO water activities private
N sectors
Water/Wate including
r Resources barangay
officials
Vehicular Air pollution impact Enactment of Enforceme MENRO/S 40,000/yr 2019-
emission of on health and resolution/ordinanc nt B 2021
harmful gasses productivity e regulating Monitoring
vehicular emission
level IEC against
smoke MIO/MEN
Promotion of belcher RO
alternative means
and modes of IEC
transportation. i.e MIO/MEN
bicycles, carpool, RO

Regulating franchise
for TODA

Enactment
and
Enforceme Traffic
nt services/S
B/PNPtraff
ic division
Environmental Health impact and Solid waste Enforceme MENRO/B 120,000/y 2019-
pollution productivity segregation and nt of arangay r 2021
proper handling of SWMplan officials (proposed
residual and )
hazardous waste
Depleted All Conservation IEC on MIO 20,000/yr 2019-
Water conservati (proposed 2021
resources Preservation and on MENRO/p )
renewal of water ublic and
resources Tree private
planting sectors
including
Brgy
Logging officials
ban
Health Disease Health and Clean-up drive and Fogging, MHO 300,000 2019-
outbreak productivity, loss of disease control Disease (2018) 2021
From flooding life surveillanc 550,000
i.e. increase in e and (2019)
leptospirosis Decrease of control MIO/MHO 600,000
and diarrhea household income /Liga ng (proposed
cases due to sickness Cleanup mga 2020)
 LOCAL CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION PLAN
Municipality of Guimba, Nueva Ecija

drive in barangay/
schools SK
and
barangays
DRRM Low level of Increased Capacity building Trainings MDRRMO/ 600,000 2019-
knowledge and vulnerability and MIO (2018) 2021
awareness seminars 5,200,702
Decreased response, (2019)
preparedness, IEC 600,000
mitigation (Projected
capability 2020)

Mainstreaming climate change adaptation

Concentration of PPAs are laid down in the table above focusing on DRRM, Health, Agriculture,
Infrastructure and Environment. The Municipality included the year 2019 as base point in
determining issues and challenges including budget appropriations. The plan will cover 2019 to
2021 as launch program for the formulation of ten- year- plan to cover 2021 to 2030 in order to
determine if the strategies effectively carried out the national objectives on climate change
adaptation.

The Municipality will stick to the ideals that “Central to achieving the three outcomes
1. Climate risk reduction mainstreamed into key national and selected local development
plans and processes;
2. Enhanced national and local capacity to develop, manage and administer projects
addressing climate change risks; and
3. Coping mechanisms improved through pilot adaptation projects.)

Is developing the capacity of local government units

The plan revolves around the 3 provided thematic strategies on a 3year effectiveness evaluation
scheme serving as jumpstart program for the ten years (10) comprehensive adaptation plan.
The three (3) years plan will try to validate cost effective and sufficiency budgetary
requirements to determine long term program budget cost. It will also try to determine other
ways of mitigating climate change by applying theory and practice on a 3 year launching
program to develop new strategies unique to the Municipality of Guimba and in harmony with
national plan.

Breaking traditional ways like incineration of household waste to environmentally friendly or

sound practice will take time. Extensive information dissemination and awareness campaign is
needed and require more time before public acceptance. Industrial produced gases that are
necessary for the operations of businesses in the Municipality are protected by international
standards but the problem is in the disposal of waste. The LGU can’t ban such but it can control
proper disposal.

Other mitigation strategies will be carried under the 3year launch program for the ten years
comprehensive CCA plan.