Lin et al.

Earth, Planets and Space 2014, 66:49

http://www.earth-planets-space.com/content/66/1/49

FULL PAPER Open Access

Could a Sumatra-like megathrust earthquake

occur in the south Ryukyu subduction zone?
Jing-Yi Lin1*, Jean-Claude Sibuet1, Shu-Kun Hsu1 and Wen-Nan Wu2

Abstract
A comparison of the geological and geophysical environments between the Himalaya-Sumatra and Taiwan-Ryukyu
collision-subduction systems revealed close tectonic similarities. Both regions are characterized by strongly oblique
convergent processes and dominated by similar tectonic stress regimes. In the two areas, the intersections of the
oceanic fracture zones with the subduction systems are characterized by trench-parallel high free-air gravity anomaly
features in the fore-arcs and the epicenters of large earthquakes were located at the boundary between the positive
and negative gravity anomalies. These event distributions and high-gravity anomalies indicate a strong coupling
degree of the intersection area, which was probably induced by a strong resistance of the fracture features during
the subduction. Moreover, the seismicity distribution in the Ryukyu area was very similar to the pre-seismic activity
pattern of the 2004 Sumatra event. That is, thrust-type earthquakes with a trench-normal P-axis occurred frequently
along the oceanward side of the mainshock, whereas only a few thrust earthquakes occurred along the continentward
side. Therefore, the aseismic area located west of 128°E in the western Ryukyu subduction zone could have resulted
from the strong plate locking effect beneath the high gravity anomaly zone. By analogy with the tectonic environment
of the Sumatra subduction zone, the occurrence of a potential Sumatra-like earthquake in the south Ryukyu arc is
highly likely and the rupture will mainly propagate continentward to fulfill the region of low seismicity (approximately
125° E to 129° E; 23° N to 26.5° N), which may generate a hazardous tsunami.

Background Methods
The Mw 9.3 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake on December Empirical laws for the possible relation between the oc-
26, 2004 was the second largest earthquake recorded dur- currences of large subduction zone earthquakes and the
ing the last century. The earthquake triggered a significant related tectonic parameters, such as the convergence
uplift of the seafloor and induced a series of devastating rate, slab age, trench sediment thickness, bathymetric
tsunamis that attacked the coasts of most landmasses features, and plate motion, have been widely investigated
bordering the Indian Ocean. The tsunami run-up was (Kanamori, 1979; Pacheco et al., 1993; Peterson and
up to 30 m high and over 230,000 people were killed in Seno, 1984; Ruff and Kanamori 1983; Stein and Okal
14 countries (Paris et al. 2007). It is one of the deadliest 2007; Uyeda and Kanamori 1979). A number of studies
natural disasters and is probably the most extensively found that a faster convergence rate, older plate age, and
analyzed earthquake-tsunami event in history. Since the higher upper plate absolute motion enhanced the trig-
occurrence of the Sumatra earthquake, the potential for gering of the largest subduction zone events (Peterson
the generation of tsunamis along subduction systems and Seno 1984; Ruff and Kanamori 1983; Uyeda and
all around the world have been studied and several high Kanamori 1979), even though the validity of such corre-
risk areas have been identified (Cummins 2007; Gusiakov lations remains controversial (Pacheco et al. 1993). In
2005; Liu et al. 2007). less than one decade, several large subduction earth-
quakes occurred worldwide. Based on a more complex
seismicity and subduction parameters catalog, Heuret
et al. (2011) suggested that events with Mw ≥ 8.5 prefer-
* Correspondence: [email protected]
1
entially occurred in the vicinity of slab edges where the
Department of Earth Sciences, National Central University, 300 Jhongda
Road, Jhongli City, Taoyuan County 32001, Taiwan
upper plate is continental and the back-arc strain neu-
Full list of author information is available at the end of the article tral. Consequently, the occurrence of large subduction
© 2014 Lin et al.; licensee Springer. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons
Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction
in any medium, provided the original work is properly credited.
Lin et al. Earth, Planets and Space 2014, 66:49 Page 2 of 8
http://www.earth-planets-space.com/content/66/1/49

earthquakes seems to favor specific tectonic conditions and is prolonged southwestward by the Okinawa trough
and the comparison of the geodynamic environments of back-arc basin.
worldwide subduction zones with those of seismogenic
areas where megathrust events occurred may help to Tectonic stress pattern
identify high-risk potential zones. The Taiwan-Ryukyu The stress orientations retrieved from the World Stress
margin, which is located at the westernmost corner of Map (WSM) (http://dc-app3-14.gfz-potsdam.de/) (Heidbach
the western Philippine Sea plate, may present similarities et al. 2010) as well as the P- and T-axes distribution
with the Himalaya-Sumatra zone. In this study, we dis- calculated from focal mechanisms extracted from the
cuss the geophysical parameters, including plate tectonic Global centroid-moment-tensor (CMT) catalog during
framework, tectonic stress pattern, bathymetric charac- the period between 1976 and December 25, 2004 for
teristics, the spatial distributions of the oceanic fracture the Sumatra area and between 1976 and the end of
zones, and the gravity anomalies of these two subduction 2011 for the Ryukyu area are shown in Figure 1c,d, re-
systems and suggest that a Sumatra-like earthquake may spectively. On the basis of the stress regime and epicen-
occur in the south Ryukyu fore-arc area. ter distribution, the focal mechanisms of the Sumatra
and Ryukyu subduction zones were further divided into
Results groups in terms of P- and T-axes orientations. Groups
Similar geodynamic contexts for the Sumatra and Ryukyu 1 and 2 represent the thrust and extensional events that
subduction zones occurred along the subduction zone (yellow contour in
Plate tectonic framework Figure 1c,d); group 3 illustrates the earthquakes located
In the Sumatra region, the Indo-Australian plate is sub- along the collisional front (yellow dashed contour in
ducting northwards beneath the Sunda plate at a rate of Figure 1c,d); and group 4 depicts the events occurring
approximately 50 mm/yr (Briggs et al. 2006; Gahalaut and within the oceanic plate (yellow dotted contour in
Gahalaut 2007; Paul et al. 2001), and it is colliding with the Figure 1c,d). The spatial pattern of the stress regime
Eurasian continent to the west (Curray 2002; Paul et al. along the Himalaya-Sumatra collision-subduction zone is
2001). The age of the oceanic plate in the north Sumatra- in good agreement with that along the Taiwan-Ryukyu
Andaman area is about 60 to 80 Ma (Müller et al. 2008). collision-subduction zone. Specifically, thrust events with
The collision of the India plate with Asia results in the for- a P-axis perpendicular to the trend of the arcs dominate
mation of the Himalaya Mountains and in the clockwise in the subduction areas (group 1 in Figure 1c,d), whereas
bending of the subduction front. From east to west along those with a P-axis sub-parallel to the relative plate mo-
the Sunda and Andaman trenches, the plate convergence tion vector occur around the colliding areas (group 3 in
vector becomes oblique (Bock et al. 2003; Michel et al. Figure 1c,d). Almost all the extensional earthquakes with
2001) (Figure 1a) and the slip is partitioned between the a trench-parallel P-axis occur in the seaward portion of
Sumatra trench and the right-lateral Sumatra fault system the collision-subduction system, east of approximately
(Curray 1989; Fitch 1972; Genrich et al. 2000; McCaffrey 100° E for the Sumatra subduction system and east of
1991; McCaffrey et al. 2000; Prawirodirdjo et al. 1997). To approximately 126° E for the Ryukyu subduction system
the north, the Sumatra fault system is transformed into the (red bars in Figure 1c,d). These extensional events are
spreading center of the Andaman Sea (Curray 1989). characterized by a vertical P-axis and a scattered T-axis
Likewise, the Philippine Sea plate (PHS) subducts be- distribution probably resulting from changes in the
neath the Eurasian plate (EU) along the Suruga-Nankai trench geometry (group 2 in Figure 1c,d) (Engdahl et al.
trough and Ryukyu trench at a rate of 80 to 85 mm/year 2007; Tanaka et al. 2006). Besides, it is noticeable that
in a 300 to 310° N direction (Yu et al. 1997) (Figure 1b). for the strike slip and thrust earthquakes occurring in the
The age of the west Philippine basin is roughly 30 to oceanic domain of the subducting plate, their T-axis shows
60 Ma (Hall et al. 1995), which is on the same order as a trench perpendicular direction whereas the P-axis is
that of the north Sumatra-Andaman area. The Luzon proximately sub-parallel to the relative plate motion (group
volcanic arc, which belongs to the PHS, collides westward 4 in Figure 1c,d). Such a stress pattern shows that large
with the EU margin and creates the Taiwan Mountains. portions of the Indo-Australian and PHS are widely af-
Thus, the deformation of the Chinese passive margin by fected by the NW-SE compressive deformation due to the
the Luzon arc indenter produced a clockwise bend of the collision processes in spite of their large distance from the
southern Ryukyu arc (Letouzey and Kimura 1985; Sibuet orogenic belts (Chamot-Rooke et al. 1993; Lin et al. 2013).
et al. 1987), and the subduction of the PHS, which occurs
at an oblique angle of about 40° E of Taiwan (Lallemand Bathymetric characteristics, oceanic fracture zones, and
et al. 1999). Similar to the Sumatra fault system, the me- gravity anomalies
dian tectonic line (MTL) is a right-lateral shear fault The large-scale features of the oceanic plate observed in
(Kimura 1996), which follows the onland arc volcanoes the Indo-Australia plate are the Ninety East ridge and
Lin et al. Earth, Planets and Space 2014, 66:49 Page 3 of 8
http://www.earth-planets-space.com/content/66/1/49

Figure 1 Tectonic context. Of the (a) Himalaya-Sumatra and (b) Taiwan-Ryukyu collision subduction systems. The red beach ball shows the location
and focal mechanism of the Mw 9.3 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake on December 26, 2004. The red rectangle shows the position of Figure 2. LOFZ,
Luzon-Okinawa fracture zone; IFZ, Investigator fracture zone. (c, d) The color bars show the stress orientations obtained from different fault types,
which were retrieved from the World Stress Map (WSM) (http://dc-app3-14.gfz-potsdam.de/) (Heidbach et al. 2010). Red indicates normal faulting,
green indicates strike slip, and blue indicates thrust faulting. Numbered circles show the orientations of the P-axis (red dot) and T-axis (green dot) in an
equal-area projection of the lower hemispheres of the focal spheres from the global centroid-moment-tensor (CMT) catalog from 1976 to December
26, 2004 for the Sumatra subduction system and from 1976 to December 31, 2011 along the Ryukyu subduction system. The patterns for groups 1
and 2 were calculated from the thrust and normal faulting earthquakes along the subduction zone shown by the yellow contour, respectively. Group
3 used the events in the collision zones (yellow dashed contour), and group 4 used the events in the oceanic domain of the subducting plate (yellow
dotted contour). Relative plate motions, shown by the white arrows, are based on the MORVEL model from the plate motion calculator (http://www.
unavco.org/community_science/science-support/crustal_motion/dxdt/model.html) (DeMets et al. 2010).

the Investigator Fracture Zone (IFZ) (98° E) (Larson distribution, all these fracture zones subduct below the
et al. 1978) (Figure 1a). In between these features, a set EU, which leads to kinks in the trend of the deformation
of roughly N-S sub-parallel fracture zones were identi- front (Deplus et al. 1998; Hsu et al. 2013; Kopp and
fied from bathymetric, gravity, magnetic, and seismic Kukowski 2003; Lange et al. 2010), and this is thought to
data (Barckhausen 2006; Delescluse and Chamot-Rooke influence the rupture behavior of major earthquakes
2007; Deplus et al. 1998; Lin et al. 2009; Sibuet et al. (Abercrombie and Ekström 2001; Bilek et al. 2003).
2007) (Figures 1a and 2a). Similarly, several major NE- In both subduction systems, the free-air gravity anom-
SW-oriented fracture zones have been defined using aly generally displays positive values for the oceanic
bathymetric and magnetic data in the western PHS (e.g. plates and portions of fore-arcs (Figure 2b,d). In the
Deschamps and Lallemand 2002; Hsu et al. 2013). Among Ryukyu subduction zone, the entire fore-arc has a low
them, the Luzon-Okinawa fracture zone (LOFZ) is the lar- anomaly value expect in the area where the LOFZ inter-
gest of these features (Figure 1b and 2c) (Hsu et al. 2013). sects the Ryukyu trench (approximately 125° E to 129° E;
Based on seismic profile interpretations and seismicity 23° N to 26.5° N) (Figure 2d). Similarly, in the Sumatra
Lin et al. Earth, Planets and Space 2014, 66:49 Page 4 of 8
http://www.earth-planets-space.com/content/66/1/49

Figure 2 Focal mechanisms of the thrust-type earthquakes extracted from the Global CMT catalog. (a) Along the Sumatra subduction
system from 1976 to 25 December 2004 and (c) along the Ryukyu subduction system from 1976 to December 31, 2011 are shown. Deep blue
beach balls show focal mechanisms. Co-seismic slip contours every 5 m of the 2004 great Sumatra earthquake shown in pink in (a) are from
Chlieh et al. (2007). Pink light areas show the aseismic zones. (b, d) The free-air gravity anomaly. Purple dashed contours show the high free-air
gravity anomalies in the fore-arc areas. The letter ‘S’ shows the possible mainshock area if a Sumatra-like earthquake were to occur in the Ryukyu
fore-arc. The black focal mechanisms in (a) and (b) show the positions of the 2004 and 2005 mainshocks.

subduction system, a high gravity anomaly zone exists be- generally change the trench morphology, which is sug-
hind the trench (approximately 93° E to 97° E and 2.5° N gestive of a high resistance of the fracture zone against
to 6° N), where series of fracture zones intersect the the subduction (Hsu et al. 2013; Lin et al. 2009). In
Sumatra trench (Figure 2b). The size of the two positive addition, a trench-parallel high gravity anomaly zones
free-air gravity anomalies is similar (about 450 km long). are located at the intersection of the oceanic fracture
ridges and the subduction zone, on the landward side
Discussion of the trench wall for both subduction systems. These
The role played by the oceanic fracture zones and their gravity anomaly high patterns could be the result of the
orientation presence of oceanic fracture zone material stuck be-
Müller and Landgrebe (2012) have proposed that the frac- neath the accretionary wedge area (Hsu et al. 2013; Lin
ture zones are characterized by continuous, uplifted ridges, et al. 2009), which also suggests that the high resistance
which could be at the origin of strong, persistent coupling of fracture zones could cause a strong coupling envir-
at the plate interface. Therefore, the occurrence of large onment (Hsu 2001) and block the subduction system. It
subduction earthquakes (magnitude >8) is strongly biased is worthnoting that epicenters of the 2004 Sumatra and
towards regions at the intersections of oceanic fracture and 2005 Nias earthquakes were located on the eastern
subduction zones. This observation is supported by the oc- border of the trench-parallel high anomaly zone at the
currences of the 2004 Sumatra and 2005 Nias earthquakes, boundary between the positive and negative gravity
which were both located in areas where the IFZ sub- anomalies (Figure 2b). Consequently, if this epicenter
ridges enter the Sumatra trench (Figure 2a,b). As location of the Sumatra earthquakes is transferred to
shown by Figures 1 and 2 and in the previous section, the Ryukyu subduction system, a possible location for a
the presence of fracture zones is apparent on both the Sumatra-like earthquake in the Ryukyu area would be
Indo-Australian and PHS subducting plates. When en- in area S (Figure 2d), at the junction of positive and
tering in the subduction system, these fracture zones negative gravity anomalies along the boundary of the
Lin et al. Earth, Planets and Space 2014, 66:49 Page 5 of 8
http://www.earth-planets-space.com/content/66/1/49

trench-parallel high anomaly. In addition, the size of Along the Ryukyu subduction zone, thrust events
the positive free-air gravity anomaly in the both areas is with a trench-normal P-axis are numerous in the
similar (about 450 km long). We therefore infer that vicinity of the trench and fore-arc region, east of the
the magnitude of a potential earthquake occurring in high free-air gravity anomalies (approximately east of
the Ryukyu fore-arc area could be as large as the 2004 128° E) (Figure 2c,d). However, the seismicity disap-
Sumatra earthquake under the premise that the whole pears west of this boundary. This spatial distribution
potential source area would rupture simultaneously. of seismic activity is in accord with the pre-seismic
Otherwise, the angle between fracture zone directions pattern of the 2004 Sumatra earthquake (Figure 2a):
and the plate motion are different for the two subduction the thrust earthquakes with a trench-normal P-axis
zones and amount to about 120° and 0° for the Ryukyu occurred frequently on the oceanward side of the
and Sunda subduction zones, respectively (Figures 1 mainshock area, whereas few thrust-type earthquakes
and 2). Based on the distribution of the principle stress occurred in the cotinentward side. The area located
axes, the occurrence of earthquakes seems to be mostly west of 128° E with a low seismicity distribution could
controlled by the regional stress regime, i.e., the relative be locked between the interface of the PHS and EU
plate motion and the slab-pull mechanism that are along the high free-air gravity anomaly zone and may
caused by the plate collision and subduction processes correspond to a potential rupture area (pink light area
(Chamot-Rooke et al. 1993; Lin et al. 2013; Yue et al. in Figure 2c). Therefore, if a Sumatra-like earthquake
2012). It means that even the presence of fracture zones occurs in the vicinity of 128° E (area S), as was men-
in a subduction system could result in slab coupling in tioned in the previous section, we would expect to see
the fore-arc area; their orientation seems to have a rela- a westward rupture propagation (pink light area in
tively small influence on the tectonic stress regime, Figure 2c) and the occurrence of thrust-type earth-
which greatly affects the seismogenic characteristics of a quakes along the present-day aseismic zone in the area
subduction system. In addition, Müller and Landgrebe west of 128° E.
(2012) show that the dimension of topographic highs of
the oceanic subducting plate is the main factor control- Tsunamogenic potential
ling the megathrust seismogenic potential of a subduc- In April 1771, a subduction earthquake generated a
tion system. What this means is that the fracture zones very large tsunami that struck the south Ryukyu Islands
characterized by laterally continuous ridges and high and killed approximately 12,000 people (Ando et al.
degrees of structural integrity could cause a strong 2009; Matsumoto et al. 2009; Nakamura 2006, 2009).
coupling effect; small volcanic chains present a rela- Reef boulders of building size were transported by the
tively fragile internal structure, which results in a weak tsunami to beaches along the east and southeast coasts
coupling. However, the impact induced by the fracture of Ishigaki Island (Goto et al. 2010), which suggests that
zone orientation appears to have been neglected. There- the source of the tsunami was located east and south-
fore, we suggest that the difference of fracture zone direc- east of Ishigaki Island (Figure 2d). As discussed in the
tions with respect to the two subduction systems may not previous section, if a Sumatra-like earthquake occurs
influence the subduction processes as well as change the along the Ryukyu subduction zone in the vicinity of
seismogenic characteristics. 128° E (area S), there will be a westward propagation of
the rupture. This westward rupture movement could be
Pre-seismic distribution of earthquakes a possible tsunami source similar to the 2004 Sumatra
In Figure 2a,b, the distribution of earthquakes along the earthquake. Moreover, based on seismic profile inter-
Sumatra and Ryukyu subduction is extracted from the pretations, Hsu et al. (2013) demonstrated the presence
Global CMT catalog. Before the 2004 Sumatra earthquake, of a splay fault system within the trench-parallel high
the thrust earthquakes with a trench-normal P-axis ex- gravity anomaly area of the Ryukyu subduction zone,
tended over the fore-arc area to the southeast of the 2004 where a highly resistant subduction due to the integra-
mainshock source area (deep blue beach balls in Figure 2a). tion of significantly developed fracture zones or strong
In contrast, only a few earthquakes were observed in the plate coupling is expected (Ando et al. 2009). Similar
fore-arc region to the north, which implies that the slab splay faults have been reported along the Sumatra sub-
interface north of the mainshock area has been locked duction zone (Sibuet et al. 2007). They branch at the
and seismic strain has accumulated (Engdahl et al. 2007). plate interface, present steep dipping angles near the
During the occurrence of the 2004 mainshock, the accu- seafloor, and may have generated the devastating tsu-
mulated seismic strain was released and the rupture prop- namis. As a result, if a Sumatra-like earthquake occurs
agated northward (pink contours in Figure 2a) (Chlieh in the south Ryukyu fore-arc area, this may also trigger
et al. 2007) inducing a huge number of thrust-type events a tsunami similar to that during the 2004 Sumatra
along the trench. earthquake and induce serious damage.
Lin et al. Earth, Planets and Space 2014, 66:49 Page 6 of 8
http://www.earth-planets-space.com/content/66/1/49

Large historical interplate earthquakes along the With this hypothesis, it is difficult to explain the con-
subduction system tinued opening of the Okinawa trough and the south-
Although the tectonic similarity between the Sumatra ern migration of the Ryukyu arc already evidenced by
and Ryukyu subduction systems was denoted, these re- geological, geodetic, and seismic data (Sibuet and Hsu
gions have differences as regards to the occurrence of 1997; Sibuet et al. 2007). Therefore, we propose that
large historical interplate earthquakes, according to pre- the strong coupling area is located at the intersection
vious studies. Magnitude 8 to 9 class interplate earth- of the oceanic fracture ridges and the subduction zone,
quakes occurred frequently in the region of the Sumatra which block the western movement of the subducting
trench, such as the 1797 earthquake (Mw 8.7 to 8.9), the plate resulting in low seismic activity in the southern-
1833 earthquake (Mw 8.8 to 9.2), and the 1861 earth- most Ryukyu subduction zone (approximately 125° E to
quake (Mw 8.5). In contrast, the risk of great earth- 129° E; 23° N to 26.5° N).
quakes and tsunamis was assumed to be low in the
Ryukyu trench because the interplate coupling appeared
to be weak and great interplate earthquakes (Mw >8.0) Conclusions
had not been recorded historically for about 300 years. In this study, we evaluated the seismic risk along the
However, Nakamura (2013) revealed that the 1771 Ryukyu subduction zone by examining the similarity in
Yaeyama earthquake (Mw 8.5 from the tsunami height tectonic environments between the Himalaya-Sumatra
distribution) in the south Ryukyu subduction zone and and Taiwan-Ryukyu collision-subduction systems. We
the 1911 Kikaijima earthquake (Mw 8.0) in the north- found that both of the two systems share the four following
central Ryukyu subduction zone were interplate earth- common geodynamic contexts. (1) The Indo-Australian
quakes. In addition, two historical tsunamis occurred in plate is subducting beneath the Sunda plate and the Indian
1768 and 1791 on Okinawa Island, and it has been sug- portion of the plate collides with the Eurasian continent
gested that these were induced by two Mw 8 interplate resulting in the formation of the Himalaya Mountains.
earthquakes that occurred around the Ryukyu trench on Similarly, the Philippine Sea plate subducts beneath the EU
the basis of the source fault model for these two tsunami and the Luzon volcanic arc creating the Taiwan orogen. (2)
events (Nakamura 2013). Consequently, the lack of large Owing to the collisional process, the subduction fronts
historic earthquakes along the Ryukyu subduction zone started to bend clockwise resulting in an oblique subduc-
may be due to incomplete records in old documents. tion and associated partitioning. (3) Oceanic fracture zones
Meanwhile, a much higher concentration of oceanic with high topographic features exist on both subducting
fracture zones can be observed in the Indo-Australian oceanic plates. The intersections of such fracture zones
plate than in the PHS. As the subduction of fracture zones with the subduction systems are associated with trench-
can cause larger earthquakes (Müller and Landgrebe parallel gravity highs where the foci of large earthquakes,
2012), this suggests that there may be a higher possibility such as the 2004 Sumatra and the 2005 Nias earthquakes,
for the occurrence of large earthquakes along the Sumatra are located. The locations of these mainshocks may be re-
subduction area. lated to the strong plate coupling resulting from the high
resistance of the fracture zones. (4) The spatial distribution
Comparison with other studies of the earthquakes along the Ryukyu arc-trench system is
The tectonic similarity between the Sumatra and Ryukyu very similar to the pre-seismic activity pattern of the 2004
subduction systems has been already raised by Hsu and Sumatra earthquake: the thrust earthquakes with a trench-
Sibuet (2005), and they suggested that there was a normal P-axis occur frequently in the oceanward side of
potential megathrust earthquake in the Nankai area. the mainshock area, whereas few thrust-type earthquakes
Based on more detailed analyses, we found a closer tec- occur in the continentward side.
tonic similarity between the southwestern Ryukyu and From the similarities in geodynamic contexts between
Sumatra subduction zoned: the area S in Figure 2d ap- the Sumatra and Ryukyu subduction zones, we suggest
pears to be a possible location for a Sumatra-like earth- that a potential Sumatra-like earthquake may occur along
quake along the Ryukyu subduction zone. Based on a the border of the high gravity anomaly zone located in the
geodetic analysis, Hsu et al. (2012) suggested that the fore-arc area of the Ryukyu subduction zone and the
plate interface of the southernmost Ryukyu subduction present low seismicity area in its western part should cor-
zone is fully locked and a potential large earthquake respond to the possible co-seismic rupture area. Such a
(Mw 7.5 to 8.7) and tsunami might occur in the region. potential earthquake could generate a risky tsunami that
However, if the most southwestern end of the Ryukyu would threaten many countries in Eastern Asia.
subduction zone was totally locked, the overriding EU
plate should be closely contacted with the subducting Competing interests
PHS and largely affected by a compressional stress regime. The authors declare that they have no competing interests.
Lin et al. Earth, Planets and Space 2014, 66:49 Page 7 of 8
http://www.earth-planets-space.com/content/66/1/49

Authors’ contributions Fitch T (1972) Plate convergence, transcurrent faults, and internal deformation
All authors have been involved in drafting the manuscript or revising it critically adjacent to Southeast Asia and the western Pacific. J Geophys Res 77:4432–4460
for important intellectual content. JYL has made substantial contributions to Gahalaut VK, Gahalaut K (2007) Burma plate motion. J Geophys Res 112, B10402,
conception of data. All authors read and approved the final manuscript. doi:10.1029/2007JB004928
Genrich J, Bock Y, McCaffrey R, Prawirodirdjo L, Stevens C, Puntodewo S, Subarya
Acknowledgements C, Wdowinski S (2000) Distribution of slip at the northern Sumatran fault
We thank two anonymous reviewers for their careful reviews which help a system. J Geophys Res 105(28):327–28,341
lot to improve this manuscript. Figures were prepared with the Generic Goto K, Kawana T, Imamura F (2010) Historical and geological evidence of
Mapping Tool (GMT) software (Wessel and Smith 1998). This research was boulders deposited by tsunamis, southern Ryukyu Islands, Japan. Earth Sci
supported by the Taiwan Earthquake Research Center (TEC) and funded Rev 102:77–99
through Ministry of Science and Technology (MOST) with grant numbers Gusiakov V (2005) Tsunami generation potential of different tsunamigenic
MOST-103-3113-M-008-001 and NSC-102-2116-M-008-024. The TEC contribution regions in the Pacific. Mar Geol 215:3–9
number for this article is 00104. Hall R, Ali JR, Anderson CD (1995) Cenozoic motion of the Philippine Sea plate:
palaeomagnetic evidence from eastern Indonesia. Tectonics 14:1117–1132
Author details Heidbach O, Tingay M, Barth A, Reinecker J, Kurfeß D, Müller B (2010) Global
1
Department of Earth Sciences, National Central University, 300 Jhongda crustal stress pattern based on the World Stress Map database release 2008.
Road, Jhongli City, Taoyuan County 32001, Taiwan. 2Institute of Earth Tectonophysics 482:3–15
Sciences, Academia Sinica, 128, Sec. 2, Academia Road, Nankang, Taipei Heuret A, Lallemand S, Funiciello F, Piromallo C, Faccenna C (2011) Physical
11529, Taiwan. characteristics of subduction interface type seismogenic zones revisited.
Geochem Geophys Geosyst 12, Q01004, doi:10.1029/2010GC003230
Received: 19 November 2013 Accepted: 26 May 2014 Hsu S-K (2001) Lithospheric structure, buoyancy and coupling across the
Published: 9 June 2014 southernmost Ryukyu subduction zone: an example of decreasing plate
coupling. Earth Planet Sci Lett 186:471–478
Hsu S-K, Sibuet J-C (2005) Earthquake off Japan could generate strong tsunami
References
arrays. Eos, Trans Amer Geophys Union 86:169–170
Abercrombie RE, Ekström G (2001) Earthquake slip on oceanic transform faults.
Nature 410:74–77 Hsu YJ, Ando M, Yu SB, Simons M (2012) The potential for a great earthquake along
Ando M, Nakamura M, Matsumoto T, Furukawa M, Tadokoro K, Furumoto M the southernmost Ryukyu subduction zone. Geophys Res Lett 39, L14302
(2009) Is the Ryukyu subduction zone in Japan coupled or decoupled?—the Hsu S-K, Yeh Y-C, Sibuet J-C, Doo W-B, Tsai C-H (2013) A mega-splay fault system
necessity of seafloor crustal deformation observation. Earth Planets Space and tsunami hazard in the southern Ryukyu subduction zone. Earth Planet
61:1031–1039 Sci Lett 362:99–107
Barckhausen U (2006) The segmentation of the subduction zone offshore Kanamori H (1979) A semi-empirical approach to prediction of long-period
Sumatra: relations between upper and lower plate. Eos Trans Amer Geophys ground motions from great earthquakes. Bull Seismol Soc Am 69:1645–1670
Union 87:U53A–U0029A, Fall Meet. Suppl., Abstract Kimura M (1996) Active rift system in the Okinawa Trough and its northeastern
Bilek SL, Schwartz SY, DeShon HR (2003) Control of seafloor roughness on continuation. Bull Disas Prev Res Inst 45:27–38
earthquake rupture behavior. Geology 31:455–458 Kopp H, Kukowski N (2003) Backstop geometry and accretionary mechanics of
Bock Y, Prawirodirdjo L, Genrich JF, Stevens CW, McCaffrey R, Subarya C, the Sunda margin. Tectonics 22:1072
Puntodewo SSO, Calais E (2003) Crustal motion in Indonesia from global Lallemand S, Liu C-S, Dominguez S, Schnürle P, Malavieille J (1999) Trench-
positioning system measurements. J Geophys Res 108:2367, doi:10.1029/ parallel stretching and folding of forearc basins and lateral migration of the
2001JB000324 accretionary wedge in the southern Ryukyus: a case of strain partition caused
Briggs RW, Sieh K, Meltzner AJ, Natawidjaja D, Galetzka J, Suwargadi B, Hsu YJ, by oblique convergence. Tectonics 18:231–247
Simons M, Hananto N, Suprihanto I, Prayudi D, Avouac JP, Prawirodirdjo L, Lange D, Tilmann F, Rietbrock A, Collings R, Natawidjaja DH, Suwargadi BW,
Bock Y (2006) Deformation and slip along the Sunda Megathrust in the great Barton P, Henstock T, Ryberg T (2010) The fine structure of the subducted
2005 Nias-Simeulue earthquake. Science 311:1897–1901 investigator fracture zone in western Sumatra as seen by local seismicity.
Chamot-Rooke N, Jestin F, De Voogd B (1993) Intraplate shortening in the central Earth Planet Sci Lett 298:47–56
Indian ocean determined from a 2100-km-long north–south deep seismic Larson RL, Carpenter GB, Diebold JB (1978) A geophysical study of the Wharton
reflection profile. Geology 21:1043–1046 Basin near the Investigator fracture zone. J Geophys Res 83:773–782
Chlieh M, Avouac JP, Hjorleifsdottir V, Song TRA, Ji C, Sieh K, Sladen A, Hebert H, Letouzey J, Kimura M (1985) Okinawa Trough genesis: structure and evolution of
Prawirodirdjo L, Bock Y, Galetzka J (2007) Coseismic slip and afterslip of the a backarc basin developed in a continent. Mar Petrol Geol 2:111–130
great Mw 9.15 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake of 2004. Bull Seismol Soc Am Lin J-Y, Le Pichon X, Rangin C, Sibuet J-C, Maury T (2009) Spatial aftershock
97:S152–S173 distribution of the 26 December 2004 great Sumatra-Andaman earthquake
Cummins PR (2007) The potential for giant tsunamigenic earthquakes in the in the northern Sumatra area. Geochem Geophys Geosyst 10, Q05006,
northern Bay of Bengal. Nature 449:75–78 doi:10.1029/2009GC002454
Curray JR (1989) The Sunda Arc: a model for oblique plate convergence. Neth J Lin J-Y, Chen Y-F, Lee C-S, Hsu S-K, Liang C-W, Lin Y-C, Hsieh H-S (2013) Strike-slip
Sea Res 24:131–140 intraplate earthquakes in the Western Philippine Sea Plate. Tectonophysics
Curray JR (2002) Tectonics and history of the Andaman Sea region. Conference 608:499–504
on Continent-Ocean Interactions within the East Asian Marginal Seas. Liu N, Chen QF, Niu FL, Chen Y (2007) Rupture of the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman
abstract, Chapman earthquake inferred from direct P-wave imaging. Chin Sci Bull 52:1986–1991
Delescluse M, Chamot-Rooke N (2007) Instantaneous deformation and kinematics Matsumoto T, Shinjo R, Nakamura M, Doi A, Kimura M, Ono T, Kubo A (2009) Did
of the India-Australia Plate. Geophys J Int 168:818–842 the submarine, across-arc normal fault system in the southwest RyuKyu arc
DeMets C, Gordon RG, Argus DF (2010) Geologically current plate motions. trigger the 1771 Tsunami? Field evidence from multibeam survey and in-situ
Geophys J Int 181:1–80 observation. J Environ Stud 18:123–129
Deplus C, Diament M, Hébert H, Bertrand G, Dominguez S, Dubois J, Malod J, McCaffrey R (1991) Slip vectors and stretching of the Sumatran forearc. Geology
Patriat P, Pontoise B, Sibilla J-J (1998) Direct evidence of active deformation 19:881–884
in the eastern Indian oceanic plate. Geology 26:131–134 McCaffrey R, Zwick PC, Bock Y, Prawirodirdjo L, Genrich JF, Stevens CW,
Deschamps A, Lallemand S (2002) The West Philippine Basin: an Eocene to early Puntodewo S, Subarya C (2000) Strain partitioning during oblique plate
Oligocene back arc basin opened between two opposed subduction zones. convergence in northern Sumatra: geodetic and seismologic constraints and
J Geophys Res 107:EPM 1–1–EPM 1–24 numerical modeling. J Geophys Res 105(28):363–28,376
Engdahl ER, Villaseñor A, DeShon HR, Thurber CH (2007) Teleseismic relocation Michel GW, Yu YQ, Zhu SY, Reigber C, Becker M, Reinhart E, Simons W, Ambrosius
and assessment of seismicity (1918–2005) in the region of the 2004 Mw 9.0 B, Vigny C, Chamot-Rooke N, Le Pichon X, Morgan P, Matheussen S (2001)
Sumatra–Andaman and 2005 Mw 8.6 Nias Island great earthquakes. Bull Crustal motion and block behaviour in SE-Asia from GPS measurements.
Seismol Soc Am 97:S43–S61 Earth Planet Sci Lett 187:239–244
Lin et al. Earth, Planets and Space 2014, 66:49 Page 8 of 8
http://www.earth-planets-space.com/content/66/1/49

Müller RD, Landgrebe T (2012) The link between great earthquakes and the
subduction of oceanic fracture zones. Solid Earth Discuss 4:1229–1280
Müller RD, Sdrolias M, Gaina C, Roest WR (2008) Age, spreading rates, and
spreading asymmetry of the world’s ocean crust. Geochem Geophys Geosyst
9, doi:10.1029/2007GC001743
Nakamura M (2006) Source fault model of the 1771 Yaeyama tsunami, southern
Ryukyu Islands, Japan, inferred from numerical simulation. Pure Appl
Geophys 163:41–54
Nakamura M (2009) Fault model of the 1771 Yaeyama earthquake along the
Ryukyu Trench estimated from the devastating tsunami. Geophys Res Lett
36, L19307
Nakamura M (2013) The 1768 and 1791 Okinawa tsunamis in the Ryukyu Trench
region. Eos Trans Amer Geophys Union 87:2574, Fall Meet, Abstract
Pacheco JF, Sykes LR, Scholz CH (1993) Nature of seismic coupling along simple
plate boundaries of the subduction type. J Geophys Res 98(14):133–14,159
Paris R, Lavigne F, Wassmer P, Sartohadi J (2007) Coastal sedimentation
associated with the December 26, 2004 tsunami in Lhok Nga, west Banda
Aceh (Sumatra, Indonesia). Mar Geol 238:93–106
Paul J, Bürgmann R, Gaur VK, Bilham R, Larson KM, Ananda MB, Jade S, Mukal M,
Anupama TS, Satyal G, Kumar D (2001) The motion and active deformation
of India. Geophys Res Lett 28:647–650
Peterson ET, Seno T (1984) Factors affecting seismic moment release rates. J
Geophys Res 89(10):233–10,248
Prawirodirdjo L, Bocl Y, McCaffrey R, Genrich J, Calais E, Stevens C, Puntodewo S,
Subarya C, Rais J, Zwick P (1997) Geodetic observations of interseismic strain
segmentation at the Sumatra subduction zone. Geophys Res Lett 24:2601–2604
Ruff L, Kanamori H (1983) Seismic coupling and uncoupling at subduction zones.
Tectonophysics 99:99–117
Sibuet J-C, Hsu S-K (1997) Geodynamics of the Taiwan arc-arc collision.
Tectonophysics 274:221–251
Sibuet J-C, Letouzey J, Barbier F, Charvet J, Foucher JP, Hilde TW, Kimura M, Chiao
LY, Marsset B, Muller C (1987) Back arc extension in the Okinawa Trough. J
Geophys Res 92(14):041–14,063
Sibuet J-C, Rangin C, Le Pichon X, Singh S, Cattaneo A, Graindorge D, Klingelhoefer
F, Lin J-Y, Malod J, Maury T, Schneider J-L, Sultan N, Umber M, Yamaguchi H,
Team SA (2007) 26th December 2004 great Sumatra–Andaman earthquake:
Co-seismic and post-seismic motions in northern Sumatra. Earth Planet Sci Lett
263:88–103
Stein S, Okal EA (2007) Ultralong period seismic study of the December 2004
Indian Ocean earthquake and implications for regional tectonics and the
subduction process. Bull Seismol Soc Am 97:S279–S295
Tanaka Y, Okuno J, Okubo S (2006) A new method for the computation of global
viscoelastic post-seismic deformation in a realistic earth model (I)—vertical
displacement and gravity variation. Geophys J Int 164:273–289
Uyeda S, Kanamori H (1979) Back‐arc opening and the mode of subduction.
J Geophys Res 84:1049–1061
Wessel P, Smith WHF (1998) New, improved version of generic mapping tools
released. Eos Trans Amer Geophys Union 79:579, doi:10.1029/98EO00426
Yu S-B, Chen H-Y, Kuo L-C (1997) Velocity field of GPS stations in the Taiwan area.
Tectonophysics 274:41–59
Yue H, Lay T, Koper KD (2012) En echelon and orthogonal fault ruptures of the
11 April 2012 great intraplate earthquakes. Nature 490:245–249

doi:10.1186/1880-5981-66-49
Cite this article as: Lin et al.: Could a Sumatra-like megathrust earthquake
occur in the south Ryukyu subduction zone? Earth, Planets and Space
2014 66:49.

Submit your manuscript to a

journal and benefit from:
7 Convenient online submission
7 Rigorous peer review
7 Immediate publication on acceptance
7 Open access: articles freely available online
7 High visibility within the field
7 Retaining the copyright to your article

Submit your next manuscript at 7 springeropen.com