An Analysis of The Non-Performing Assets of Some Selected Public Sector Banks in India
An Analysis of The Non-Performing Assets of Some Selected Public Sector Banks in India
Synopsis submitted to
Maulana Abul Kalam Azad University of Technology,
West Bengal
(Formerly known as West Bengal University of Technology)
In partial fulfillment of the Degree of
DOCTORATE OF PHILOSOPHY
2016
By
Gour Bandyopadhyay
M.Phil in Management,
The Heritage Academy
1. Introduction 2
2. Status of NPA in Indian Banking and the Impact of NPA on Indian Economy 2-5
8. Suggested Action Plan based on the findings emanated from the study 14-15
References 18-19
2.Status of NPA in Indian Banking and the Impact of NPA on Indian Economy
Banking is a financial intermediary which mobilizes savings of the surplus units in the form of
deposits and channelizes them in deficit units including agriculture, industry and services, as
loans and advances. As a lending institution, bad debt in banking business is an eventuality and
cannot be avoided. Bad lans or Non Performing Assets (NPAs) are loan assets, which cease to
generate income to the bank. These assets have well defined credit weakness that jeopardize the
liquidation of debts and may be characterized by distinct possibilities that bank will sustain some
losses. NPAs have dampening effect on banking system since long, though they were not in the
public domain till early 90s (Khasnobis,2006).
Norms on NPA was implemented for the first time by RBI in 1992-93, when Gross Non
Performing Asset (GNPA) of all PSBs were Rs 39253 crores, representing 23.18% of Gross
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Advances (GAs), which rose to Rs 112489 crores, representing 3.17% of the GAs as on March
2012. For all Schedule Commercial Banks (SCBs), GNPA were Rs 47,300 crores representing
15.7% of GAs as on March, 1997, which rose to Rs 1,37,055 crores for SCBs representing
2.94% of GA as on March,2012. This indicates low quality of credit portfolio in absolute terms.
Such a high figure of loan defaults is directly eating away vitality of the PSBs and forces us to
relook on the credit appraisal and follow up techniques applied by the banks. (Sharma, 2005).
GAs, GNPAs and GNPA/GA Ratio of all SCBs from March 1997 to March 2012 and of all PSBs
from March 1993 to March 2012 are graphically presented in following charts.
3
A look at the GNPA curves for PSBs and SCBs exhibit upward trends in the last six years
(though prior to that period over a period of five years there was a declining trend in GNPA due
to number of factors including global recession, for which the GNPA figures increased very
sharply. The GA figures with respect SCBs as well as PSBs reveal existence of continuous
upward trends, which indicate increasing credit appetite in the various segments of the society
(thereby justifying the commonly held impression regarding ‘growth story’ in the Indian
economy). The GNPA ratio [(GNPA/GA) X 100] figures have registered decline over a period of
more than a decade till 2008-09 for PSB and 2009-10 for SCB indicating apparent improvement
over years, primarily because of the many-fold increase in the gross advances and not due to the
activities, like, better management of distress asset through proper appraisal, follow up and
recovery actions. The micro and macro impact of such deadly virus are as under:
4
It tends to de-motivate the staff and create investor apathy and shake the customer’s
loyalty. Public confidence depends on the intrinsic strength of banks, their sound balance sheet
and strong fundamentals, which is diluted with the existence of NPA level of beyond tolerance.
In view of the seriousness of the problem, numerous research studies have been conducted on
different issues concerning credit risks in banks including NPAs. However, empirical works on
NPA problems in PSBs are found inadequate. The exhaustive review of literature on NPA
demonstrates that majority of the research work has been undertaken on aggregate PSBs data
with primarily focus on the areas which include
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ii) Impact of NPA on micro as well as well macro economic variables (Sharma (2005),
Gopalakrishnan (2006), Bodla&Verma (2006), Singla (2008), Thiagarajan, Ayyappan,
Ramachandran and Sakthivadivel (2011), Nandy (2011), Yadav (2011), Jayasree and
Radhika (2011), Rajput, Gupta and Chauhan (2012)).
iii) Future value of NPAs with the help of simple/ multiple regression models (Berger &
Young (1997), Ranjan& Dhal, (2003), Misra& Dhal (2003) and Gopalakrishnan (2006)).
Forecasting NPA employing data of past loans (Graham & Humphrey (1978)).
However empirical work on individual bank-wise trend study and modeling for the purpose of
forecasting future value and conducting impact analysis on NPA in PSB has seldom been
attempted. It is against this backdrop that the present study is undertaken to fill up this gap and
make a modest contribution in the field of management of NPA in banks in India. Accordingly,
examination of movement of NPA over time and forecasting the same for medium term with the
help of univariate time series data by employing parametric Curve Estimation Technique of
Regression Analysis, non parametric LOESS Curve Fit Technique and semi parametric Penalised
Spline Curve Fit Technique for six selected PSBs and PSB in aggregate has been attempted in
the thesis. Similarly, for the purpose of examining the impact of NPA on strategic banking
variables, along with time variable in selected PSBs as well as PSBs in aggregate, with the help
of simple as well as multiple regression analysis have been undertaken.
ii) to review the mechanism for effective management of NPAs as initiated by PSBs in India,
iii) to examine the overall trends of NPAs and to explore the dynamicity of NPA as the
variable under study over time in selected PSBs.
iv) to examine the status of inter relationship as is existed among the set of relevant banking
variables including NPA,
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v) to examine the impact of NPAs on profitability and other strategic banking variables along
with time variables, and
vi) to suggest future action plan based on the findings emanated from the points iii, iv and v as
mentioned above.
With respect to the objective number four, pair wise correlation co-efficient have been
computed and appropriate tests have been employed to judge the significance status of these
co-efficient. This has enabled us to select the appropriate variables to be considered for further
study.
To understand the impact of NPA as mentioned under objective number five, banking variables
selected by employing pair wise correlation under profitability and productivity in addition to
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strategic banking variables like net interest margin, credit-deposit ratio, capital adequacy ratio,
credit growth and priority sector advances to total advances have been regressed. Model validity
has been studied to finally determine the most appropriate model.
To study the impact of NPA on the profitability of banks firstly simple regression have been used
to measure the relationship between two variables. But as there are number of factors affecting
the profitability, it is not appropriate to judge profitability with NPA alone, rather few other
strategic banking variables, along with NPAs have been considered through multiple regression
models which consist of determining a regression equation explaining the relationship between
dependent variables (profitability) with the independent ones. Similarly, simple regression has
been used to examine statistically significant relationship between productivity related variable
like OPE and other selected variables with NPAs. OPE or other selected variables have been
taken as dependent variable and NPA as independent and models have been developed
separately for individual banks and PSBs in aggregate for each variable. For examining the
impact of NPA on OPE and other selected variables as stated above along with time variable,
multiple regression analysis has been undertaken and model developed separately under each
case.
Assumptions of linear regression models, ie, independence of the errors and normality of the
error distribution have been verified with the help of DW statistics and SW statistics
respectively. Significance of the models has been checked at five percent level of F values.
Model coefficients have been checked at five percent level of t values. Also to diagnose the issue
of multi co-linearity in multiple regressions, the value of VIF and Tolerance Factor (TOL) have
also been computed and compared with standard.
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study have been documented. The chapter ends with scheme of the thesis, giving a fair idea of
distribution of the total research work.
Chapter 2, has elaborately described Prudential Norms on NPAs and a few other related concepts.
The concepts of loan assets and their various classifications have been spelt out. The guidelines
of RBI on NPAs, on income recognition, on asset classification and on provisioning have been
narrated in this chapter. A few operational concepts onNPAs have also been discussed in brief.
Chapter 3 delineates on the mechanism for effective management of NPAs as initiated by PSBs
in India.All PSBs individually have framed a Recovery Policy, duly approved by it’s Board
with the primary objective of adopting aggressive recovery measures and implementing case
specific strategies, which may include persuasion, restructuring, settlements, and legal methods,
to ensure maximum and timely recovery of dues in distress asset and includes number of
recovery mechanism.
In chapter 4 an attempt has been made to examine the dynamicity of NPA as the variable under
study over time, in six selected PSBs along with PSBs in aggregate.Parametric models (using
time series regression analysis) have been employed to examine the trends existing in the above
data-sets relating to the parameters, GNPA and GA respectively over time. Finally, the best
fitted model has been used to forecast values for three years.
Chapter 5 and 6 of the thesis attempts to employ Non Parametric(LOESS Curve Fit
(Quadratic))model and Semi Parametric( Penalised Spline ) model to examine the pattern
existing in the above data-sets relating to the parameters, GNPA and GA respectively over time,
followed by forecasting future values for three years. Diagnostic tool like Quantile Comparison
Plots of the Residuals and Residuals vs Predictor Plot have been employed and to check the
presence of outliers in the dataand to examine appropriateness model for the given dataset
respectively.
Chapter 7 examines relationship between NPA and selected banking variables with the help of
pair-wise correlation analysis followed by regression analysis (simple as well as multiple) to
examine impact of NPA along with time variable on such variables and model developed under
each case. For the purpose of examining impact of NPA on the profitability of banks simple
linear regression have been attempted. To examine the impact of NPA along with time variable,
multiple regression model is invoked. Same regression process has been followed for other
statistically significant banking variables as stated above. However, apart from NPA, as there are
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number of variables affect profitability of a bank, it is not appropriate to judge profitability with
NPA alone, rather few other strategic banking variables along with NPA have been considered
through multiple regression model to examine overall impact of NPA and other strategic variable
on profitability of selected PSB.
Chapter 8 is having three sections. Section I is earmarked for summary of the thesis. Section II
narrates suggested the future action plan based on the findings emanated from chapters 3, 4, 5
and 6, The last Section (Section III) is dedicated for future application of the thesis, uniqueness
of the research work, social benefits of the research, scope of future research on the subject and
comprehensive conclusions.
7. Results and findings of the Study
7.1. Summary Statistics of Goodness of Fit
7.1.1. Parameter GNPA
7.1.2. Parameter GA
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7.2. Aspects of Forecasting using Parametric, Non Parametric and Semi Parametric
Methods
7.2.1. Parameter GNPA (Rs. in Crore)
Semi Parametric (Penalized
Parametric (Curve estimation) Non Parametric (LOESS Fit)
Bank Spline)
2013 2014 2015 2013 2014 2015 2013 2014 2015
SBI 41015 52313 66019 47770 60513 75270 51323 67531 86941
SBT 1333 1711 2183 1689 2164 2730 1702 2186 2761
SB 2712 2947 3197 3705 4437 5284 3896 4848 6006
UCO 2301 2581 2908 4961 6261 7780 5122 6619 8420
CBI 2345 2445 2611 7614 10026 12954 8200 11178 14854
PNB 11883 19282 30206 9864 12887 16520 11234 15599 21036
PSB 103565 129497 161393 134061 170383 212990 146360 194670 253414
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iv) When examining the pattern of the curve under parametric approach, we have found that
in case of GNPA dataset all the banks with the exception of PNB have best fitted with cubic
curve while PNB has been fitted with polynomial of degree 5. For GA dataset all the banks
including PSB in aggregate are best fitted with cubic model. We may therefore, conclude that
polynomial family of curves has represented both GNPA and GA dataset adequately. With non
parametric approach, it has been observed that both GNPA and GA dataset of all the banks
including aggregate PSB have fitted well with LOESS fit (Quadratic) exhibiting the non linear
nature of the given dataset. Semi parametric method also establishes non linearity of the GNPA
and GA dataset of all the banks including aggregate PSBs.
v) Residuals from best models are found to be random and they follow normality, thus
model post-requisites in regard to both randomness and normality have been satisfied, and hence
suggest future use of such models on other banks also.
vi) With parametric, non parametric and semi parametric modeling GNPA data set of all the
banks including aggregate PSB show general upward trend in the later years whereas in case of
GA data set continuous upward trend is observed.
vii) By extrapolating models beyond the period over which they were estimated, we have
forecasted values for the years, 2013, 2014 and 2015 with respect to the parameters GNPA and
GA. Forecasted values exhibit rise in future value in respect of both the parameters.
viii) It has been observed that in respect of parameter GNPA, both non parametric and semi
parametric models are exhibiting higher level of precision and better fit as compared to
parametric models and hence are very muchrelevant and useful in forecasting future values.
However, in respect of parameter GA, parametric,non parametricand semi parametricmodels are
very much relevant and useful as they exhibit very high level of precision of the predicted
values.
Thus it can be concluded from the above that the dataset in respect parameters GNPA and GA of
all the selected PSBs alongwith PSBs in aggregate have exhibited similar features like – curve
linearity in the sample dataset and upward trends in the recent past and foreseeable future.
The main objective of the research work undertaken is to obtain a quantitative assessment of the
relationship between NPA and selected strategic banking variables including profitability,
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productivity and few others and to examine the impact of NPA along with time variable on such
dependent variables. Accordingly, Correlationand Regression Analysis has been undertaken .
1. Correlation Analysis exhibits the following relationship
(i) Profitability represented by PBT/TAof all PSBs with the exception of SBI, Productivity
represented by OPE and CDR of all PSBs, CAR of all selected PSBs with the exception of SBI
and SB have been found to have statistically significant (p value less than 0.05) negative
relationship with NPA (GNPA/TA),though at varying degree. Profitability of SBI and CAR of
SB also has negative relationship with NPA though not statistically significant with p value very
high.
(ii) NIM/TA of SBT has been found to have statistically significant (p value less than 0.05)
negative relationship with NPA (GNPA/TA), while for PSBs similar relationship is observed
with p value marginally higher than 0.05. CRDGROWTH of SBT, UCO, PNB and PSB have
been found to have statistically significant (p value less than 0.05) negative relationship with
NPA (GNPA/TA), while for CBI similar relationship is observed with p value marginally higher
than 0.05. The relationship of other banks are not statistically significant and hence left out from
the scope of our study.
3. Impact Analysis using Regression Technique:
(i) The study clearly reveals that NPA has negative impact on profitability for all the selected
banks along with PSBs in aggregate both in respect of simple regression with NPA as predictor
and multiple regressions where along with NPA selected strategic banking variables are
predictors. It is also noted that impact of these selected strategic banking variables are not same
for different PSBs. The multiple regressions have also improved the precision of the modeling as
evident from the tremendous increase in the R2 value of the models in comparison to simple
regression. It has also been observed that with time and NPA, as predictors, only SBI, SBT and
UCO are found to have statistically significant impact on profitability. However, with the
inclusion of other statistically significant strategic variables in predictor only SBI and SB are
found to have statistically significant impact on profitability.
(ii) In case of productivity (OPE) we observe that though it has strong negative correlation with
NPA for all the banks but simple linear model couldnot be established. However, with the
inclusion of time in the predictor, models with very high R2(between 0.917 to0.978) have been
established for all the banks excepting CBI and PSBs in aggregate.
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(iii) Since NIM/TA has high negative correlation with SBT and moderate correlation with PSBs
in aggregate, statistically significant models have been established in these cases. However, with
the inclusion of time in the predictor, model for SBT can only be developed.
(iv) In case of CDR we observe that though it has strong negative correlation with NPA for all
the banks but simple linear model couldnot be established. However, with the inclusion of time
in the predictor, models with very high R2 (.944) could be established for SB.
(v) Since Credit Growth has negative correlation for all the banks except SBI and SB,
statistically significant models have been established in these cases though R2 value is not good.
With the inclusion of time in the predictor, model for SBT could only be developed with
moderate R2 value.
(vi) CAR has been found to have negative correlation for all the banks except SBI and SB, but
statistically significant models could be established in case of SBT only though R2 value is not
good. With the inclusion of time in the predictor, models for SBT could only be developed with
low R2 value.
8. Suggested Action Plan based on the findings emanated from the study
The study reveals a non linear upward trend in classified debt over the sample period and
forecast steep rise in the next three years, which is an alarming situation for the growing
economy in general with banking industry in particular. Moreover, it has been found that NPA
has statistically significant negative impact on profitability with all the selected PSBs along-with
PSBs in aggregate. In respect of other selected banking variables, NPA has statistically
significant impact only with respect to few of the selected PSBs. In short, it may be concluded
that arresting the steep growth in NPA is the prime challenge with the policy makers in PSBs.
Though arresting the growth of NPA is really a challenging task but it is certainly possible to
containit’s growth. In this direction, a few comprehensive action plans have been suggested to
contain the growth of distress asset as under.
Top priority has to be accorded towards management of NPA with a view to improve overall
quality of asset. A two pronged approach comprising (i) preventive measures and (ii) curative
measures is advocated to contain the rising NPAs.It is observed that even a good appraised
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account tends to become non performing for lack of proper monitoring. Ensuring compliance of
sanction terms, periodical verification of primary & collateral securities, proper valuation of
securities charged in favour of the bank, identification of early warning signal for initiating
timely preventive measures, monitoring and follow-up is treated as nucleus of effective Credit
Management System as it arrests degradation in the quality of assets. Signals can be picked up at
the incipient stage of sickness. The bank should identify these stress symptoms and take
corrective steps to avoid slippage into NPA category. The branches/ offices should put more
impetus on credit appraisal/ sanctioning/ documentation/ monitoring/ review/ renewal etc to
restore quality of the asset. In cases where the accounts show symptoms of irregularity/ sickness
for reasons beyond the control of the borrower, the same should be restructured/ rescheduled/
rehabilitated in early stage itself when it is detected in order to prevent its slippage to NPA.
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Again, when a NPA burdened PSB becomes sick with negative net worth, government comes
forward to rescue by way of infusion of capital to the sick bank. Such financial assistance comes
out of government’s budgetary resource which is contributed by the public in general, either in
the form of tax revenues or from the hard earned savings of the investing public. In any case, the
society is bearing the cost of these NPAs.
The study has not only identified factors behind the growth in NPA, but also recommended
measures to overcome the same. Moreover, by forecasting NPA for medium term and examining
the impact of NPA on banking variables in a PSB, as attempted in the Thesis, a PSB will be in a
position to initiate corrective actions towards improving the forecasted NPA, which will
undoubtedly improve the NPA level in the industry and a great relief for the society.
The main purpose of constructing a time series model is to forecast. Such forecasts enable the
policy makers to judge whether it is necessary to take any measure to influence the relevant
economic variables. Given its association with bank failure and financial crisis, the evaluation of
non-performing loans (NPLs) is of great importance and should therefore be of interest in a
developing country like India. Specific areas of future application of such modeling are:
1. Future values of GNPA and GA,along with other banking variables, can be predictedby
other banks from the past dataset using the three methods (parametric, non parametric and semi
parametric) which has been illustrated in the forecasting section of the relevant chapters of the
thesis.
2. With the help of these forecasted values, banks can formulate policy initiatives to bridge the
gap between the tolerable level of NPA and forecasted level of NPA and thereby to mitigate risk
associated with credit portfolio.
3. Such forecasts enable the policy makers to judge whether it is necessary to take any measure
to influence the relevant economic variables.
4. Motivational schemes like promotion/ fringe benefits can be employed through performance
benchmarking based on forecasted value of GNPA and GA.
5. Applying the same methodology, other banks can also undertake impact analysisfor
examining the impact of NPA on strategic banking variables.The models can be used as a
performance measurement means for the selected PSBs as well.
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11. Scope of Future Research on the Subject
In future the researchers can use this study as a reference to examine the trend of NPA for other
PSBs and PrSBs and develop appropriate forecasting models and to examine the impact of NPA
on strategic banking variables and further compare these results among different group of banks
for examining the relative strengths and weaknesses of different banks. The researchers may
also explore multivariate modeling in forecasting NPA taking clue from this study which
primarily focuses on univariate modeling.
12. Conclusion
With the tightening of prudential norms over the years since its introduction andimplementation
in Indian banking industry, global recession, volatility in market driven factors and changes in
socio-economic environment in India, restoration of asset quality has gained paramount
importance.
The study undertakes regression analysis to examine impact of NPA on strategic banking
variables in six selected PSBs, along-with PSBs in aggregate in India and finds statistical
evidence in support of general perception, though at varying proportion. Movement of GNPA
and GA over time in respect of selected PSBs and PSBs in aggregate has been adequately
captured by parametric regression (curve estimation technique), non parametric regression
(lowessfit technique) and semi-parametric regression (penalized spline technique). All the
technique exhibited non linear feature and upward trend in our dataset in respect of parameter
GNPA and GA for all the PSBs and PSBs in aggregate. Models of most of the banks captured
are backed by precision level of high magnitude. Based on our findings, we suggest that highly
accurate forecasts may be obtained through the use of univariate time series modeling.
The study has clearly demonstrated that NPA in PSBs are on the rise for last three years and is
expected to rise still further in next three years. Of late, several institutional mechanisms have
been developed and are being followed by PSBs in Indiaand there has also been tightening of
legal provision to contain growth in NPA. It is suggested in the thesis that bankers should evolve
a two prone strategy and religiously implement the same to put a break on the tremendous
growth in NPA. The strategies are : (a) Blocking further slippage of advances to NPA category
and (b) Recovery of existing NPA. Number of strategic action plans has been suggested in
thestudy. However, it is generally perceived that effective management of NPAs require an
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appropriate internal checks and balance systems in a bank, which depends primarily on the
wisdom and mindset of the top management (Board).
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___________________ ___________________
Signature of the Supervisor Signature of the Candidate
Prof. (Dr) Malayendu Saha Gour Bandyopadhyay
19
List of Publications by the Researcher on Related Subject
Sl.
Title of the Paper Name of the Journal Date
No
Examination of Movement of NPA
International Journal of
Data over Time in Selected Public
Scientific and Engineering January,
1. Sector Banks in India with Non
Research (ISSN: 2229-5518, 2014
Parametric Approach, Page No : 741
Vol. 5, Issue 1, January 2014).
- 755
International Journal of
Modeling NPA Time Series Data in
Scientific and Engineering
Selected Public Sector Banks in India December,
Research (ISSN: 2229-5518,
2.
with Semi Parametric Approach, 2013
Page No: 1876 - 1889 Vol. 4, Issue 12, December
2013).
International Journal of
Impact of NonPerforming Assets
Engineering Science
NPAs on Strategic Banking Variables December,
3. Technology (ISSN: 0975-5462,
in Selected Public Sector Banks in 2013
Vol.5 No.12 Dec 2013).
India, Page No: 1933 - 1948
A Comparative Study of Trends and Perspective on Management by
Progress in Non – Performing Assets Heritage Business School, Bi –
4. in Selected Public sector Banks in July, 2013
annual Journal of Management
India, Page No: 79 – 97 Education Center (ISSN: 0974
– 7095, Vol. 5, 1&2 July 2013).
Conference
Achieving Excellence in International Conference on
Management of Non Performing Achieving Excellence in
1.
Assets (NPAs) by Scheduled Business Organizations: Issues
Commercial Banks (SCBs) in India and Challenges, 29 – 31st January,
with particular reference to Public January, 2009 at Centre for 2009
Sector Banks (PSBs), Page No: 18. Management Studies, University
of Burdwan.
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