Al Azhar University – Gaza PRINCIPLES OF STATISTICS
Example: Check whether the function given by
x2
f ( x) , for x = 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
25
Can serve as the probability distribution of a discrete random variable.
Solution:
Example: A box contains 4 white and three red balls, if X denotes the number of red balls in
three draws with replacement. Find the probability distribution of x.
Solution:
Types of Random probability distributions
A discrete probability distribution: It is the probability distribution of a discrete random
variable, for example: Binomial Distribution, Poisson Distribution, etc.
A continuous probability distribution: It is the probability distribution of a continuous random
variable, for example: The normal distribution, the t distribution, the chi-square distribution, the
F distribution, etc.
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5.2 Binomail Distribution
A binomial experiment has the following conditions:
1. There are n repeated trials.
2. Each trial has only two possible outcomes-success or failure, girl or boy, sick or well, dead or
alive, at risk or not at risk, infected–not infected, or simply positive–negative etc
3. The probabilities of the two outcomes remains constant from trial to trial.
The probability of success denoted by p.
The probability of a failure, q= (1- p).
4. The outcome of each trial is independent of the outcomes of any other trial; that is, the
outcome of one trial has no effect on the outcome of any other trial.
n n!
P (r success) p r q nr p r q nr
r r!(n r )!
"!" represents the factorial function.
n! = (n)(n - 1) (n - 2)(n - 3) . . . (1).
For example: 4! = (4)(3)(2)(1) = 24
By definition, 0! = 1
Example: In a three-child family if the probability of having a boy is 0.5. What is the probability
of having
a- two girls and one boy,
b- 3 boys,
c- and at least one boy?
Solution:
Let a family having a boy is a success with, p = 0.5, n =3.
3 3!
a- P(r 1) (0.5)1 (0.5) 2 (0.5) 3 3(0.125) 0.375 .
1 1! 2 !
3 3!
b- P(r 3) (0.5) 3 (0.5) 0 (0.5) 3 0.125.
3 3!
by considering the girl is the success, n = 3, r = 0
3 3!
P (r 0) (0.5) 0 (0.5) 3 (0.5) 3 0.125.
0 3!
c- P(at least one boy) P(r 1) P(r 2) P(r 3) 1 P(r 0)
3
1 (0.5) 0 (0.5) 3 1 0.125 0.875.
0
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Example: Ten individuals are treated surgically. For each individual there is a 70% chance of
successful surgery. Among these 10 people, the number of successful surgeries follows a
binomial distribution with n =10, and p =0.7.
What is the probability of exactly 5 successful surgeries?
Solution:
10 10!
P (r 5) (0.7) 5 (0.3) 5 (0.7) 5 (0.3) 5 (252)(0.168)(0.0024) 0.102
5 5! 5!
Example: Let r = number of patients who will experience nausea following treatment with Phe-
Mycin, n = 4 and p=0.1. Find the probability that 2 of the 4 patients treated will experience
nausea.
Solution:
4 4!
P (r 2) (0.1) 2 (0.9) 2 (0.1) 2 (0.9) 2 0.0486
2 2! 2!
Mean & Variance of the Binomial Distribution
The mean of the binomial distribution is found by:
np
The variance of the binomial distribution is found by:
2 np(1 p)
Example: Obtain the expected value (mean) and the standard deviation of the of successful
surgeries in the previous example.
Solution:
The expected value, np = (10) (0.7) = 7.
The variance, 2 np(1 p) = (10) (0.7) (0.3) = 2.1.
Thus, the standard deviation, np(1 p) 2.1 1.45
5.3 Normal Probability Distribution:
It is the most important distribution for describing a continuous random variable.
It has been used in a wide variety of applications:
Heights and weights of people.
Test scores.
Scientific measurements.
Amounts of rainfall.
It is widely used in statistical inference
The Normal Probability Density Function is
given by:
1
f ( x) e ( x ) / 2 2
2
2
= mean
= standard deviation
= 3.14159
e = 2.71828
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Al Azhar University – Gaza PRINCIPLES OF STATISTICS
Characteristics of a Normal Probability Distribution
It is bell-shaped and has a single peak at the center of the distribution.
The arithmetic mean, median, and mode are equal.
It is symmetrical about the mean.
The location of a normal distribution is determined by the mean,, the dispersion or spread
of the distribution is determined by the standard deviation,σ .
There are an infinite number of normal distributions By varying the parameters and , we
obtain different normal distributions.
The Standard Normal Probability Distribution
The standard normal distribution is a normal distribution with a mean of 0 and a standard
deviation of 1.
It is also called the Z distribution.
A z-value is the distance between a selected value, designated X, and the population mean ,
divided by the population standard deviation, σ.
X
The formula of the standardized value is: Z
By standardising any normally distributed random variable, we can use just the table namely,
Areas Under the Normal Curve Or Areas of a Standard Normal Distribution, Such tables
are usually found in the Appendix of most of statistics books.
Example: Assume that the Intelligence Quiz (IQ) of a given population is normally distributed
with =100 and σ =15.
i. what is the proportion of persons having IQs between 100 and 120.
ii. what is the proportion of persons has IQs greater than 120?
iii. what is the proportion of persons with IQs between 80 and 120?
iv. what is the proportion of persons with IQs between 95 and 125?
v. what is the Z value of the normal curve that marks the upper 10% of the area?
vi. what is the 90th percentile of IQ scores?
Solution:
100 100
a. The Z corresponding to x =100 is Z 0 and Z corresponding to x =120 is
15
120 100
Z 1.33 .
15
By using Table B to find the area for a Z of 1.33, you'll find the answer to be 0.4082.
Therefore the proportion of persons having IQs between 100 and 120 is 0.4082, about 41%.
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Al Azhar University – Gaza PRINCIPLES OF STATISTICS
ii. Since the area to the right of Z = 0 is 0.5, and the area between Z= 0 and 1.33 is 0.4082, by
subtraction you will obtain the area beyond a Z of 1.33, namely, 0.5 - 0.4082 = 0.0918.
So the answer is that about 9% have IQs over 120.
80 100
iii. The Z corresponding to x =80 is Z 1.33 . Thus the area under the standard
15
normal curve between -1.33 and 1.33.
Using the symmetry argument, simply double the area between Z = 0 and 1.33, 2(0.4082) =
0.8164.
0
95 100
iv. The Z corresponding to x =95 is Z 0.33 and Z corresponding to x =125 is
15
125 100
Z 1.67 .
15
The required area is divided into two sub-areas , A A1 A2 . 0
The area A1 is between Z = 0 and - 0.33 which is the same as the area between Z = 0 and 0.33.
In Table B, The area of A1 is 0 >1293.
The area A2 is between Z= 0 and 1.67 is 0.4525. Thus A A1 A2 = 0.1293 + 0.4525 =
0.5818.
v. The desired normal deviate is that value corresponding to 0.40 of the area.
In Table B the value is found to be approximately Z=1.28.
vi. First we need to find the Z score of the 90th percentile to be 1.28. But the 1.28 is not in term
of IQs. Thus, by applying the standardization formula then you have
100 100
Z 0 . Therefore, x = 1.28 (15) +100 = 119.2
15
0
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Al Azhar University – Gaza PRINCIPLES OF STATISTICS
EXCERCISES
2x
1. Verify that f ( x) for x = 1,2,3,…, k. can serve as the probability distribution of
k (k 1)
a random variable with given range.
2. A software company Mysoftcom is concerned about a low retention rate for employees.
On the basis of past experience, management has seen a turnover of 10% of the hourly
employees annually. Thus, for any hourly employees chosen at random, management
estimates a probability of 0.1 that the person will not be with the company next year.
Choosing 3 hourly employees at random, what is the probability that 1 of them will leave
the company this year?
3. The probability that a patient recovers from SARS is 0.4. If 15 people are known to
have contracted this disease, what is the probability that
(i) at least 13 survive
(ii) at most 2 die
4. Find the areas under the normal curve that lie between the given values of Z.
a. Z = 0 and Z = 2.37.
b. Z = 0 and Z = -1.94.
c. Z = - 1.85 and Z = 1.85.
d. Z = - 0.76 and Z = 3.09.
e. Z = - 2.77 and Z = - 0.96.
2. What Z scores correspond to the following areas under the normal curve?
a. area of 0.05 to the right of +Z.
b. area of 0.01 to the left of –Z.
c. area of 0.9 between Z .
d. area of 0.95 between Z .
3. If the heights of male youngsters are normally distributed with a mean of 60 inches. and
standard deviation of 10 inches, what percentage of the boys' heights ( in inches) would we
expect to be
a. between 45 and 75?
b. Between 30 and 90?
c. Less than 50?
d. 45 or more?
e. 75 or more?
f. Between 50 and 75?
4. Assume that the age at onset of disease X is distributed normally with a mean of 50 years and
a standard deviation of 12 years. What is the probability that an individual afflicted with X
had developed it before age 35?
5. Describe the normal distribution.
6. why do statisticians prefer to work with the standard normal distribution rather than the
normal distribution?
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Al Azhar University – Gaza PRINCIPLES OF STATISTICS
7. If a clinical variable X is normally distributed with a standard deviation of 8, what is the mean
value of X, if 0.3413 of the values of X is greater than 58?
8. The probability that a patient recovers from a rare blood disease is 0.4. If 10 people are known
to have contracted this disease, what is the probability that
a. exactly 3 survive,
b. at least 8 survive, and
c. from 2 to 5 survive?
9. A biologist is studying a new hybrid tomato. It is known that the seeds of this hybrid tomato
have probability 0.70 of germinating. The biologist plants 10 seeds.
a. What is the probability that exactly 8 seeds will germinate?
b. What is the probability that at least 8 seeds will germinate?
c. What is the probability that at most 8 seeds will germinate?
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Al Azhar University – Gaza PRINCIPLES OF STATISTICS
CHAPTER 6
CORRELATION AND REGRESSION
6.1 Introduction
In analyzing data for the health sciences, we find that it is frequently desirable to
investigate the relationship between two or more variables.
The nature and strength of the relationships between variables, may be examined by correlation
and regression analysis .
Examples of two related variables:
Blood pressure and age.
Height and weight.
The concentration of an injected drug and heart rate.
The consumption level of some nutrient and weight gain.
Correlation Analysis is a statistical technique concerned with measuring the strength of the
relationship between variables.
Regression Analysis is used to predict or estimate the value of one variable corresponding to a
given value of another variable.
Scatter Diagram: is a chart that portrays the relationship between the two quantitative variables.
Features of scatter diagram:
It is the usual first step in correlations analysis.
One variable is called independent (X) and the second is called dependent (Y).
Points are not joined.
In the analysis of relationships it is important to classify variables into two different types:
The Dependent Variable is the variable being predicted or estimated.
The Independent Variable provides the basis for estimation, it is the predictor variable.
6.2 Correlation Coefficient:
Correlation coefficient of variables X and Y shows how strongly the values of these variables are
related to each other.
Characteristics of correlation coefficient:
It is denoted by r , where r ∈ [-1, 1].
If the correlation coefficient is positive (a direct relationship), then both variables are
simultaneously increasing (or simultaneously decreasing).
If the correlation coefficient is negative (an inverse relationship), then when one variable
increases the other decreases, and reciprocally.
The correlation coefficient measures the degree of linear association between two
variables.
There is a strong relationship if r ∈ [0.8, 1] or r ∈ [-1, -0.8],
a moderate relationship if r ∈ (0.5, 0.8) or r ∈ (-0.8, -0.5),
a weak relationship if r∈ [-0.5, 0.5].
Dr. Abuzaid. A. H. 59
