”National assessment of development potential of grid-

connected solar photovoltaic (PV) projects in Viet Nam until

2020 with a vision to 2030” in Hanoi on 24 January, 2018.

List of presentations

1. Methodology for solar PV assessment, presented by Dr. Nguyen Anh Tuan, Institute of
Energy
2. Final results on theoretical and technical potentials of solar PV, presented by Mr. Vu
Huy Hung, Institute of Energy
3. Final results on economic potential and cluster analysis, presented by Dr. Nguyen Anh
Tuan, Institute of Energy
4. Assessment of environmental, economical and social impacts, presented by Ms. Dang
Huong Giang, Institute of Energy
5. PV Project Implementation, presented by Mr. Yannis Vasilopoulos, Becquerel Institute
6. From PV Potential to PV development. Lessons’ learnt, presented by Mr. Yannis
Vasilopoulos, Becquerel Institute

Wednesday, January 24, 2018 MOIT/GIZ Energy Support Programme 1

1. Methodology for solar PV assessment
Dr. Nguyen Anh Tuan, Institute of Energy

Hanoi, 24.01.2018
Contents

1. Current status of solar power development in Vietnam

2. Research and approach methodology – theoretical potential
and technical potential
3. Definition and method for calculating economic potential of
solar power
4. Criteria for analysis and clusters

Wednesday, January 24, 2018 MOIT/GIZ Energy Support Programme 3

1. Current status of solar power development in Vietnam

There are four scales of solar PV systems existing in Vietnam market:

household , commercial scale, small PV power panel, grid-connected PV power
plant.
At present, total installed capacity is 8MW being in operation (mainly at small
scale, demonstration projects…).
At present, there are about 115 grid connected solar PV power projects of
utility scale have been being in pipeline for some provinces with high solar
power potential and they are at different stage of development such as :
obtaining permission for project site investigation, permission for investment
, formulation of investment construction projects.
As of the end of 2017, it is estimated that PV panel production plants in
Vietnam have total design capacity of about 6,000 MW with annual production
of about 300-400 MW, for export.

Wednesday, January 24, 2018 MOIT/GIZ Energy Support Programme 4

1. Current status of solar PV development in Vietnam –
Capacity registered as of December 2017.
Number of
Province Capacity MW
projects
An Giang 5 210
Bà Rịa Vũng Tàu 2 3,03
Bình Định 8 650
Bình Dương 1 100
Bình Phước 3 580
Bình Thuận 14 1255
Cần Thơ 1 130
Đà Nẵng 1 40
Đắk Lắk 14 6595
Đắk Nông 2 80
Đồng Nai 1 126
Gia Lai 2 49
Hà Tĩnh 2 350
Hậu Giang 2 69
Khánh Hòa 18 1060
Kon Tum 1 49
Ninh Thuận 15 1892
Phú Yên 7 752
Quảng Bình 1 49,5
Quảng Nam 2 250
Quảng Ngãi 4 469,2
Quảng Trị 1 100
Sóc Trăng 1 30
Sơn La 1 10
Tây Ninh 1 2000
Thanh Hóa 3 280
Thừa Thiên Huế 2 185
Tổng 115 16.842

Wednesday, January 24, 2018 MOIT/GIZ Energy Support Programme 5

2. Aproach methodology: scope of research

(Source: U.S. Renewable Energy Technical Potentials: A GIS-Based Analysis, NREL, June 2012)

Wednesday, January 24, 2018 MOIT/GIZ Energy Support Programme 6

2. Approach: 2 phases of assessment and check technical potential

Phase 2: Bottom up – Review of

Phase 1: Top down – Estimation of technical potential on provincial level,
technical pre-potential Conclusion on national level
Review of sectoral data, national and provincial plans

Questionaire
Inception workshop Proposal of 16
List of
Maps of solar Land uses data focal provinces
interviewees
radiation Vietnam Infrastructure data
(MOIT/CIENAT) Atmospheric data

National level Provincial level

Define Conduct field

National level necessary visits to DOIT,
stakeholders DONRE…
Integration
into GIS MOIT/
GIZ/ Collect data Collect data
ICs from related through
stakeholders questionaires
Assess
theoretical
potential Decisions Update the
project
database
Define PV Recommen Integration
dations
technology into GIS

Estimate
Estimate
technical
technical Plausibility check
potential of
potential
solar power

Assess of
economic
potential

Wednesday, January 24, 2018 MOIT/GIZ Energy Support Programme 7

 2. Definition and calculation of solar potentials – Theoretical
potential

Theoretical potential
= Solar energy intercepted by the earth's surface
– Solar energy reflected by the atmosphere back to
space

= 1.37 kilowatts/m2 - 0.3 kilowatts/m2

= 1.0 kilowatts/m2 (1GW/km2)
Results are presented in the next presentation.

Source: Goldemberg, J. (ed) 2000. World Energy Assessment:

Energy and the Challenge of Sustainability. New York: UNDP

Wednesday, January 24, 2018 MOIT/GIZ Energy Support Programme 8

2. Definition and calculation of solar potentials – Technical
potential in Vietnam

Solar energy technical potential, as defined in this study, represents the

achievable energy generation of a particular technology given system
performance, topographic limitations, environmental, and land-use constraints.
The grid limitation is seen as an economic constraint and therefore will be part
of the next assessment steps.
The process of calculating the technical potential foresees some assumptions on
exclusion criteria at the beginning. The applied criteria and the granularity of the
data will be discussed and revised during the Inception workshop. Further
definitions, additional criteria (floating solar, rice fields, PV technology etc.) and
actions to be taken to improve the granularity will be mutually agreed.

Wednesday, January 24, 2018 MOIT/GIZ Energy Support Programme 9

2. Definition and calculation of solar potentials
- GIS analysis

Spatial
database
Urban areas
Roads
Agriculture
Land uses
Elevations

Wednesday, January 24, 2018 MOIT/GIZ Energy Support Programme 10

 2. Definition and calculation of solar potentials – TechnicaL
potential

Method for estimation of technical potential from theoretical potential is

based on the methodology described in “Renewable Energy Zones GIS Tools
User Manual” by International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) and
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL):
Excluding land-use zones, based on land-use plans (national and
provincial) for protected areas, forestry, agriculture land, industrial
zones,… depending on data availability.
Excluding infrastructure, cultural objects and zones.
Excluding small areas, not suitable for ground-mounted grid-connected
solar power plants (utility scale > 1MW), or depending on map resolution

Wednesday, January 24, 2018 MOIT/GIZ Energy Support Programme 11

 2. Definition and calculation of solar potentials – TechnicaL
potential

In planning solar power projects, the following main factors will be

considered in selection of project sites:
1. Solar source
2. Capability and cost of grid connection
3. Required preservation and biodiversity
4. Scale of location, topography, access, surface conditions
5. Near and far shadows
6. Impacts on landscapes, vision
7. Current status of land uses
8. Distance to residential areas or areas of trade activities

Wednesday, January 24, 2018 MOIT/GIZ Energy Support Programme 12

 2. Data structure and source

CRITERIA CATEGORY SOURCE STAGE OF ANALYSIS COMMENTS

Resource assessment,
Physical Solar resource SolarGIS Best available and updated
Attribute calculation
Shuttle Radar Topography Resource assessment,
Elevation (DEM) Best available
Mission Attribute calculation
Resource assessment,
Slope SRTM Best available (calculated from DEM)
Attribute calculation

European Space Agency Climate Global level dataset; 2015; 300 m

Land use and land Resource assessment,
Environmental Change Initiative Land Cover resolution; unknown accuracy and
cover Attribute calculation
Project (ESA-CCI) not ground validated

Global level dataset, not all areas

World Database of Protected
Protected areas Resource assessment have been verified by government
Areas
agencies

European Space Agency Climate Accuracy verification, require better

Resource assessment,
Water bodies Change Initiative Land Cover attribute information (e.g., lake vs.
Attribute calculation
Project reservoir)
Resource assessment,
Socio-economic Population density LandScan Global dataset, 1 km resolution
Attribute calculation
Airports, military
GeoViet Resource assessment
areas
Infrastructure Roads, power lines Institute of Energy Attribute calculation Best

Wednesday, January 24, 2018 MOIT/GIZ Energy Support Programme 13

 2. Exclusion criteria applicable for calculation of solar
potentials – Technical potential

Step 2: Propose exclusion criteria for calculation of technical and

economical potential for Vietnam
Step 1: Define exclusion
criteria with reference to Exclusion criteria (for assessment of technical potential)
international experience
Excluding slope 15°
Excluding elevation >2,000m
Distance to urban area 2,000m
Distance to residential area (rural) 500m
With reference to
exclusion criteria of: Minimum distance from protected natural areas, 200m
- Cyprus forests, archaeological areas and coastal areas,
- India paddy land.
Minimum distance to water body 100m
- European Union
- Africa Minimum distance to roads, railways, power lines 50m
- Iran
Minimum distance from airports and military 2000m
structures
Minimum area (applied for this study) >10 ha

Wednesday, January 24, 2018 MOIT/GIZ Energy Support Programme 14

2. Definitions and calculation of solar potentials –Technical
generation potential at national and provincial levels

Technical generation potential (MWh/a) = Available space (km2) x power density

(MW/km2) x Capacity factor (%) x 8760h

The total array power density depends on the array spacing as well as the individual module
efficiency. If deployed horizontally with no spacing between modules, the array power density
would be equal to the module power density (100–150 MWp/km2 for silicon modules). A review
of several large projects and discussions with several system installers indicates a minimum
spacing for service vehicles of about 3.5 m between rows and an even more conservative approach
of 4–5 m applied in reality. The current practice, stipulated by the regulation of MOIT requires 1.2-
1.3ha /MWp, equivalent to 77-82MWp/km2. Assuming the ratio DC/AC = 1.35, we are able to get
the PV power density equal 55-60 MW/km2 (AC) for fixed array system. For an average number,
taking into account the various configuration of the land surface and slopes, etc. , it is appropriate
to adopt the average power density equal 50 MW/km2.
Capacity factors proposed for 3 regions: HSCSnorth = 0.15; HSCSsouth = HSCScenter = 0.18

Wednesday, January 24, 2018 MOIT/GIZ Energy Support Programme 15

3. Economic potential of solar power

Economic potential in this report is defined as the subset of the available resource
technical potential where the cost required to generate the electricity (which
determines the minimum revenue requirements for development of the resource) is
below the revenue available in terms of displaced energy and displaced capacity.

Wednesday, January 24, 2018 MOIT/GIZ Energy Support Programme 16

3. Levelized cost of electricity (LCOE)

(*): Giá trị dự kiến, sẽ được tính toán chi tiết sau

Wednesday, January 24, 2018 MOIT/GIZ Energy Support Programme 17

3. Levelized cost of electricity (LCOE)

For calculating the most typical value of LCOE, consultant team chose
one typical solar power plant with the following features:
Investment cost = 1029$/kWp, WACC = 10.25%
Typical parameters Value
Capacity 50MW
Operation year 2019
Lifetime used for economic and financial calculations 20 years
Specific investment cost (Detailes in appendix, including cost 1029 $/kWp
of 10km connecting line and cost of 1.5km traffic road)
O&M cost (reducing 0.03% /year due to technology progress 35 $/kW/year
application and cost optimization)
Cost of Inverter replacement in 10th year of the project 50$/kWp
WACC (ratio 30:70) 10.25%
Inflation rate (by US$) 2%
Performance efficiency 80%
Efficiency reduction rate 0.5%/year

Wednesday, January 24, 2018 MOIT/GIZ Energy Support Programme 18

3. Levelized cost of electricity (LCOE)

For calculating the most typical value of LCOE, consultant team chose
one typical solar power plant with the following features:
Investment cost = 950$/kWp, WACC = 8.5%
Typical parameters Value
Capacity 50MW
Operation year 2019
Lifetime used for economic and financial calculations 20 years
Specific investment cost (Detailes in appendix, including cost 950 $/kWp
of 10km connecting line and cost of 1.5km traffic road)
O&M cost (reducing 0.03% /year due to technology progress 35 $/kW/year
application and cost optimization)
Cost of Inverter replacement in 10th year of the project 50$/kWp
WACC (ratio 30:70) 8.5%
Inflation rate (by US$) 2%
Performance efficiency 80%
Efficiency reduction rate 0.5%/year

Wednesday, January 24, 2018 MOIT/GIZ Energy Support Programme 19

3. Levelized cost of electricity (LCOE)

For calculating the most typical value of LCOE, consultant team chose
one typical solar power plant with the following features:
Investment cost = 795$/kWp, WACC = 7.8%
Typical parameters Value
Capacity 50MW
Operation year 2019
Lifetime used for economic and financial calculations 20 years
Specific investment cost (Detailes in appendix, including cost 795 $/kWp
of 10km connecting line and cost of 1.5km traffic road)
O&M cost (reducing 0.03% /year due to technology progress 35 $/kW/year
application and cost optimization)
Cost of Inverter replacement in 10th year of the project 50$/kWp
WACC (ratio 30:70) 7.8%
Inflation rate (by US$) 2%
Performance efficiency 80%
Efficiency reduction rate 0.5%/year

Wednesday, January 24, 2018 MOIT/GIZ Energy Support Programme 20

Criteria for assessment of economic potential and scenario
development

Assessment criteria (applied for assessment of economic potential and creating

solar power development scenarios)
Solar radiation GHI (kWh/m2/year):
- AVCT LCOE < AVCT for each region

- FIT LCOE< 9.35 Uscent/kWh

Distance to grid connection point, (km)
- AVCT <=10
>10
- FIT
Distance to road (km)
- AVCT <=1
>1
- FIT

Wednesday, January 24, 2018 MOIT/GIZ Energy Support Programme 21

3. LCOE value and values of LACE by region

The North The Center The South

Avoided cost (VND/kWh) 1.644 1.642 1.673
Equivalent to US$ cent/kWh 7,5551 7,3458 7,4846

Wednesday, January 24, 2018 MOIT/GIZ Energy Support Programme 22

3. The next steps – Cluster analysis and propose scenarios

Study team carried out cluster analysis with aim to classify areas for prioritizing development
based on criteria of close distance to power lines and the distance to the nearest road. Cluster
criteria are applied following space constrain K-Nearest-neighbor by distance EUCLIDEAN.
Indicator GHI is used for cluster analysis.
After considering factors impacting on LCOE of solar power plant, the study team proposed
preparing the list of prioritized clusters for development in periods based on 3 factors which
most impact on economic effectiveness, i.e. Global horizontal irradiation (GHI), connection
distance to power line (km) and distance from the power plant to the nearest road (km).
With values calculated for 3 above mentioned criteria for each cluster, study team could calculate
LCOE (above described) and based on this, proposed priority orders for solar power
development for each cluster in period 2021 - 2025 and 2026-2030, in the principle that areas
(clusters) which have higher economic benefits (the lowest LCOE) will be prioritized for
development first. The results are presented in the following presentation.

Wednesday, January 24, 2018 MOIT/GIZ Energy Support Programme 23

 Thank you!

Wednesday, January 24, 2018 MOIT/GIZ Energy Support Programme 24

2. Final results on theoretical and technical potentials of solar PV

Vu Duy Hung, Institute of Energy

Hanoi, 24.1.2018
Contents

1. Theoretical potential
2. Technical potential

Wednesday, January 24, 2018 MOIT/GIZ Energy Support Programme 26

1. Theoretical potential

Input data
Three main data sources are used for calculation
of solar power potential map (2003-2012):
On ground measurement system (data of
sunshine hours for 30 years (1983-2012)
from171 measurement stations in the whole
country; 14 automatic measurement stations
measuring components of solar irradiation.
Satellite images (from metrological satellite
channel IODC and MTSAT2 combined)
Using reanalyzed meteorological data from
weather forecasting models - NWPM
(reanalyzed data of MACC and NCEP/NCAR).

Wednesday, January 24, 2018 MOIT/GIZ Energy Support Programme 27

1. Theoretical potential

Structural diagram of solar

irradiation calculation
Heliosat method
Satellite images GHI and DNI
Cloudy factor, albedo, sky clearness,
horizontal conditions and global direct Resolution
change method 0.05°x0.05°

Algorithm k-means
Sunlight hours

Model RET2
Covered by cloud
Input data to model REST2 from
MACC and NCEP

Global forecast Model SKIRON

system (GFS)

Wednesday, January 24, 2018 MOIT/GIZ Energy Support Programme 28

1. Theoretical potential

Wednesday, January 24, 2018 MOIT/GIZ Energy Support Programme 29

2. Technical potential

Define technical potential

1. From topographical, geological maps… and theoretical solar power potential map,
the map of preliminary solar power technical potential is created (map of potential
areas for development and operation of solar power projects with existing
technical and technological conditions).

2. Performance of site investigation, collection of planning data related (land use

plan, plan of 3 forest types, irrigation plan…) in order to define excluded areas in
identification of potential areas.

3. Overlay excluded areas on map of preliminary technical potential in order to

create final map of technical potential to serve planning works.

Wednesday, January 24, 2018 MOIT/GIZ Energy Support Programme 30

2. Technical potential

Structure for technical potential calculation

Urban land

Rural land Land by slope

Protected Distance to
land… land Technical
Excluded land
Water surface potential
land
Land available
Traffic land for project

Military land &

airports

Wednesday, January 24, 2018 MOIT/GIZ Energy Support Programme 31

 2. Technical potential

Intermediate results

Protected Topography
land DEM

Water surface Traffic land Military land,

land airports

Wednesday, January 24, 2018 MOIT/GIZ Energy Support Programme 32

2. Technical potential

Results of technical potential by criteria for the whole country

Map of Map of
technical capacity
potential (MW) for
technical
areas
potential
areas

Wednesday, January 24, 2018 MOIT/GIZ Energy Support Programme 33

 17 Đắk Nông 199731.3 3631.5
18 Điện Biên 295257.0 5368.3
19 Đồng Nai 62994.5 1145.4
20 Đồng Tháp 87127.0 1584.1

2. Technical potential 21
22
Gia Lai
Hà Giang
419837.4
174280.5
7633.4
3168.7
23 Hà Nam 2964.9 53.9
24 Hà Nội 11606.6 211.0
25 Hà Tĩnh 93818.7 1705.8

Statistical data of land area & capacity by province

26 Hải Dương 11425.5 207.7
27 Hải Phòng 2289.3 41.6
Bảng thống kê diện tích đất và công suất tiềm năng kỹ thuật theo đất Bảng
28 thống
Hậukê diện tích
Giang và công suất tiềm năng kỹ thuật theo
33151.1 602.7
từng tỉnh 29 Hồ Chí Minh từng tỉnh 11294.3 205.4
30 Hòa Bình 83451.9 1517.3
Technical potential Technical potential land area 31 Hưng YênName Technical potential
5399.1 Technical potential land area
98.2
ID Name ID
capacity (MW) (km2) 32 Khánh Hòa capacity (MW)
95138.0 (km2) 1729.8
1 An Giang 100491.2 1827.1 331 An
KiênGiang
Giang 100491.2
93071.6 1827.1
1692.2
2 Bà Rịa-Vũng Tàu 28443.7 517.2 342 Bà
KonRịa-Vũng
Tum Tàu 28443.7
301448.9 517.2
5480.9
3 Bắc Giang 60734.4 1104.3 353 Bắc Giang
Lai Châu 60734.4
226021.0 1104.3
4109.5
4 Bắc Kạn 116377.2 2115.9 364 Bắc
LâmKạn
Đồng 116377.2
228266.5 2115.9
4150.3
5 Bạc Liêu 56563.9 1028.4 375 Bạc
LạngLiêu
Sơn 56563.9
287590.9 1028.4
5228.9
6 Bắc Ninh 1936.3 35.2 386 Bắc
Lào Ninh
Cai 1936.3
126075.9 35.2
2292.3
7 Bến Tre 35536.3 646.1 397 Bến
LongTre
An 35536.3
121785.3 646.1
2214.3
8 Bình Định 168431.3 3062.4 408 Bình
Nam Định
Định 168431.3
772.3 3062.4
14.0
9 Bình Dương 51380.8 934.2 419 Bình
NghệDương
An 51380.8
30232.1 934.2
549.7
10 Bình Phước 134799.6 2450.9 10
42 Bình
Ninh Phước
Bình 134799.6
3191.0 2450.9
58.0
11 Bình Thuận 141625.0 2575.0 11
43 Bình
Ninh Thuận
Thuận 141625.0
50973.6 2575.0
926.8
12 Cà Mau 80583.1 1465.1 12
44 Cà
PhúMau
Thọ 80583.1
75952.8 1465.1
1381.0
13 Cần Thơ 26295.3 478.1 13
45 Cần Thơ
Phú Yên 26295.3
127935.0 478.1
2326.1
14 Cao Bằng 165411.3 3007.5 14
46 Cao
QuảngBằng
Bình 165411.3
213590.1 3007.5
3883.5
15 Đà Nẵng 5365.6 97.6 15
47 Đà Nẵng
Quảng Nam 5365.6
263601.9 97.6
4792.8
16 Đắk Lắk 289236.5 5258.8 16
48 Đắk
QuảngLắkNgãi 289236.5
145045.1 5258.8
2637.2
17 Đắk Nông 199731.3 3631.5 17
49 Đắk
QuảngNông
Ninh 199731.3
135349.9 3631.5
2460.9
18 Điện Biên 295257.0 5368.3 18
50 Điện
Quảng Biên
Trị 295257.0
99181.4 5368.3
1803.3
19 Đồng Nai 62994.5 1145.4 19
51 Đồng Nai
Sóc Trăng 62994.5
60728.5 1145.4
1104.2
20 Đồng Tháp 87127.0 1584.1 20
52 Đồng
Sơn LaTháp 87127.0
344743.4 1584.1
6268.1
21 Gia Lai 419837.4 7633.4 21
53 Gia
Tây Lai
Ninh 419837.4
55903.1 7633.4
1016.4
22 Hà Giang 174280.5 3168.7 22
54 Hà
TháiGiang
Bình 174280.5
8074.7 3168.7
146.8
23 Hà Nam 2964.9 53.9 23
55 Hà
TháiNam
Nguyên 2964.9
73974.0 53.9
1345.0
24 Hà Nội 11606.6 211.0 24
56 Hà NộiHoá
Thanh 11606.6
201342.7 211.0
3660.8
25 Hà Tĩnh 93818.7 1705.8 25
57 Hà
ThừaTĩnh
Thiên Huế 93818.7
92504.3 1705.8
1681.9
26 Hải Dương 11425.5 207.7 26
58 Hải
TiềnDương
Giang 11425.5
62522.8 207.7
1136.8
27 Hải Phòng 2289.3 41.6 27
59 Hải Phòng
Trà Vinh 2289.3
50203.1 41.6
912.8
28 Hậu Giang 33151.1 602.7 28
60 Hậu
TuyênGiang
Quang 33151.1
160819.9 602.7
2924.0
29 Hồ Chí Minh 11294.3 205.4 29
61 Hồ
VĩnhChí Minh
Long 11294.3
28791.1 205.4
523.5
30 Hòa Bình 83451.9 1517.3 30
62 Hòa
Vĩnh Bình
Phúc 83451.9
5399.1 1517.3
98.2
31 Hưng Yên 5399.1 98.2 31
63 Hưng
Yên BáiYên 5399.1
159622.3 98.2
2902.2
32 Khánh Hòa 95138.0 1729.8 32 Khánh
Tổng Hòa 95138.0
6,887,693 1729.8
125,231
33 Kiên Giang 93071.6 1692.2 33 Kiên Giang 93071.6 1692.2
34 Kon Tum 301448.9 5480.9 34 Kon Tum 301448.9 5480.9
35 Lai Châu 226021.0 4109.5 35 Lai Châu 226021.0 4109.5
Wednesday,
36 Lâm ĐồngJanuary 24, 2018 228266.5 MOIT/GIZ Energy 4150.3 Support36Programme
Lâm Đồng 228266.5 34
4150.3
37 Lạng Sơn 287590.9 5228.9 37 Lạng Sơn 287590.9 5228.9
 Thank you!

Wednesday, January 24, 2018 MOIT/GIZ Energy Support Programme 35

3. Final results on economic potential and cluster analysis

Dr. Nguyen Anh Tuan, Institute of Energy

Hanoi, 24.1.2018
Contents

1. Economic potential of grid connected solar PV power

2. Cluster analysis and scenarios for grid connected solar
PV power development in periods to 2025, 2030

Wednesday, January 24, 2018 MOIT/GIZ Energy Support Programme 37

1. Economic potential

Data and assumptions for development of

input scenarios

The main information source used for calculation

map of solar PV economic potential is data set of
technical potentials (MW), and distribution of
available areas (km2).
1. CAPEX and WACC scenarios :
• a. CAPEX = 789$/kWp; WACC = 7,8%
• b. CAPEX = 950$/kWp; WACC = 8,5%
• c. CAPEX = 1030$/kWp; WACC = 10,25%
2. LACE scenario:
• a. LACE = AVCT for each region
• b. LACE = FIT = 9.35 Uscent/kWh

Wednesday, January 24, 2018 MOIT/GIZ Energy Support Programme 38

 1. Economic potential –
Scenario 1A

STT Vung Tên tỉnh Vùng (km2) Công suất (MW) HSCS Sản lượng (MWh/y)
1 Miền Nam An Giang 8.2 411.3 0.18 648,499
2 Bà Rịa-Vũng Tàu 105.1 5,257.5 0.18 8,289,961
3 Bạc Liêu 1.5 77.4 0.18 122,010
4 Bến Tre 80.6 4,032.2 0.18 6,357,949
5 Bình Dương 711.7 35,586.0 0.18 56,111,980
6 Bình Phước 863.8 43,189.3 0.18 68,100,961
7 Đồng Nai 77.6 3,879.8 0.18 6,117,728
8 Đồng Tháp 29.2 1,459.8 0.18 2,301,782
9 Hồ Chí Minh 73.0 3,652.4 0.18 5,759,084
10 Long An 268.8 13,440.1 0.18 21,192,293
11 Sóc Trăng 14.3 714.4 0.18 1,126,447
12 Tây Ninh 476.3 23,813.6 0.18 37,549,294
13 Tiền Giang 23.7 1,186.6 0.18 1,870,980
14 Trà Vinh 11.7 587.1 0.18 925,762
15 Miền Trung Bình Định 10.8 538.5 0.18 849,131
16 Bình Thuận 224.1 11,206.2 0.18 17,669,992
17 Đắk Lắk 264.9 13,247.1 0.18 20,888,084
18 Đắk Nông 151.9 7,593.7 0.18 11,973,756
19 Gia Lai 249.2 12,461.2 0.18 19,648,881
20 Khánh Hòa 136.6 6,832.4 0.18 10,773,277
21 Kon Tum 22.2 1,110.4 0.18 1,750,868
22 Lâm Đồng 146.1 7,303.6 0.18 11,516,392
23 Ninh Thuận 118.7 5,934.9 0.18 9,358,131
24 Phú Yên 7.6 381.9 0.18 602,159
25 Quảng Ngãi 1.5 77.2 0.18 121,762
Tổng 4,079.5 203,975 321,627,162

Wednesday, January 24, 2018 MOIT/GIZ Energy Support Programme 39

1. Economic potential – Land use needs in scenario 1A

Danh mục phân loại đất Row Labels Sum of Area_km2

Khu vực trống Bare areas 13.673
Đất cỏ Grassland 66.608
Cây thân thảo Herbaceous cover 1,661.521
Đất trồng trọt (<50%) / thảm thực vật tự nhiên (cây Mosaic cropland (<50%)/natural vegetation (tree shrub
thân thảo cây bụi) (<50%) herbaceous cover)(<50%) 795.972

Cây thân thảo (> 50%) / cây và bụi cây (<50%) Mosaic herbaceous cover (>50%) / tree and shrub (<50%) 0.189

Cây khảm và cây bụi (>50%) / cây thân thảo (<50%) Mosaic tree and shrub (>50%) / herbaceous cover (<50%) 683.765
Cây bụi hoặc cây cỏ che nắng / nước mặn / nước hanh Shrub or herbaceous cover flooded fresh/saline/brakish
khô water 27.597
Cây bụi Shrubland 67.533
Cây bụi sớm rụng Shrubland deciduous 1.293
Cây bụi thường xanh Shrubland evergreen 377.272
Cây lá rộng (>40%) Tree cover broadleaved deciduous closed (>40%) 0.189
Tree cover broadleaved deciduous closed to open
Cây lá rộng sớm rụng (>15%) (>15%) 209.304
Tree cover needleleaved evergreen closed to open
Cây lá kim thường xanh (>15%) (>15%) 141.169
Cây che phủ nước mặn Tree cover flooded saline water 25.499
Che phủ bởi cây hoặc bụi Tree or shrub cover 7.880
Các khu vực trống không hợp nhất Unconsolidated bare areas 0.028
Tổng Grand Total 4,079.492

Wednesday, January 24, 2018 MOIT/GIZ Energy Support Programme 40

 STT Vung Tỉnh Area_Km2 MW HSCS MWh/y

1. Economic potential – 1
2
Miền Bắc Điện Biên
Lai Châu
436.3
102.3
21,815
5,114
0.15
0.15
28,665,468
6,720,389
3 Sơn La 1,015.5 50,774 0.15 66,716,601
scenario 1B 4 Nghệ An 3.6 182 0.15 238,882
5 Thanh Hoá 1.5 74 0.15 97,593
6 Miền Nam An Giang 67.3 3,364 0.18 5,305,001
7 Bà Rịa-Vũng Tàu 159.0 7,951 0.18 12,537,897
8 Bạc Liêu 207.5 10,374 0.18 16,358,037
9 Bến Tre 157.8 7,889 0.18 12,439,584
10 Bình Dương 711.9 35,595 0.18 56,126,044
11 Bình Phước 863.8 43,189 0.18 68,100,961
12 Cà Mau 228.6 11,430 0.18 18,022,444
13 Cần Thơ 1.9 95 0.18 149,435
14 Đồng Nai 414.5 20,725 0.18 32,679,282
15 Đồng Tháp 39.9 1,993 0.18 3,143,121
16 Hậu Giang 51.6 2,582 0.18 4,071,244
17 Hồ Chí Minh 98.8 4,939 0.18 7,788,446
18 Kiên Giang 42.9 2,145 0.18 3,381,804
19 Long An 318.1 15,903 0.18 25,076,054
20 Sóc Trăng 102.5 5,123 0.18 8,078,159
21 Tây Ninh 476.3 23,814 0.18 37,549,294
22 Tiền Giang 194.6 9,729 0.18 15,341,054
23 Trà Vinh 132.5 6,627 0.18 10,449,968
24 Vĩnh Long 32.7 1,637 0.18 2,580,918
25 Miền Trung Bình Định 426.5 21,324 0.18 33,623,556
26 Bình Thuận 342.7 17,134 0.18 27,017,431
27 Đà Nẵng 24.9 1,247 0.18 1,966,600
28 Đắk Lắk 1,163.2 58,159 0.18 91,704,699
29 Đắk Nông 769.3 38,467 0.18 60,655,416
30 Gia Lai 1,609.2 80,461 0.18 126,870,612
31 Khánh Hòa 403.9 20,197 0.18 31,845,864
32 Kon Tum 905.0 45,250 0.18 71,350,242
33 Lâm Đồng 678.7 33,933 0.18 53,506,332
34 Ninh Thuận 165.7 8,285 0.18 13,063,552
35 Phú Yên 527.7 26,387 0.18 41,607,590
36 Quảng Bình 162.8 8,140 0.18 12,835,380
37 Quảng Nam 678.4 33,921 0.18 53,486,718
38 Quảng Ngãi 616.6 30,832 0.18 48,615,664
39 Quảng Trị 185.0 9,249 0.18 14,583,232
40 Thừa Thiên Huế 154.8 7,741 0.18 12,205,266
14,675.8 733,792.2 1,136,555,831

Wednesday, January 24, 2018 MOIT/GIZ Energy Support Programme 41

1. Economic potential – Land use needs in scenario 1B

Khu vực trống Bare areas 87.60

Đất cỏ Grassland 168.53
Cây thân thảo Herbaceous cover 3,614.77
Đất trồng trọt (<50%) / thảm thực vật tự nhiên (cây thân thảo Mosaic cropland (<50%)/natural vegetation (tree shrub
cây bụi) (<50%) herbaceous cover)(<50%) 3,011.70
Cây thân thảo (> 50%) / cây và bụi cây (<50%) Mosaic herbaceous cover (>50%) / tree and shrub (<50%) 6.39
Cây khảm và cây bụi (>50%) / cây thân thảo (<50%) Mosaic tree and shrub (>50%) / herbaceous cover (<50%) 3,022.84
Cây bụi hoặc cây cỏ che nắng / nước mặn / nước hanh khô Shrub or herbaceous cover flooded fresh/saline/brakish water 40.86
Cây bụi Shrubland 890.95
Cây bụi sớm rụng Shrubland deciduous 4.23
Cây bụi thường xanh Shrubland evergreen 2,713.51
Thảm thực vật thưa thớt (cây bụi) (<15%) Sparse vegetation (tree shrub herbaceous cover) (<15%) 27.48
Cây lá rộng (>40%) Tree cover broadleaved deciduous closed (>40%) 1.29
Cây lá rộng thường xanh (>15%) Tree cover broadleaved deciduous closed to open (>15%) 322.79
Cây lá rộng sớm rụng (15-40%) Tree cover broadleaved deciduous open (15-40%) 0.00
Cây lá kim thường xanh (>15%) Tree cover needleleaved evergreen closed to open (>15%) 629.42
Cây che phủ nước mặn Tree cover flooded saline water 125.17
Che phủ bởi cây hoặc bụi Tree or shrub cover 7.88
Các khu vực trống không hợp nhất Unconsolidated bare areas 0.43
Tổng Grand Total 14,675.84

Wednesday, January 24, 2018 MOIT/GIZ Energy Support Programme 42

2. Economic potential cluster analysis –scenario 2A

The North The Central The South

Avoided Cost Tariff (VND/kWh) 1.644 1.642 1.673

Equivalent to US$ cent/kWh 7,5551 7,3458 7,4846

Equivalent to GHI (kWh/m2/y) 2100 2150 2122

With solar radiation in Vietnam (according to GHI), and LCOE from some

standard power plants with assumed CAPEX and WACC, economic potential is

zero for scenario 2A when electricity tariff is equal to avoided cost tariff for

each region.

Wednesday, January 24, 2018 MOIT/GIZ Energy Support Programme 43

2. Economic potential –
Scenario 2B
Stt Ten Tinh Area_km2 MW HSCS MWh/y
1 An Giang 66.4 3,318 0.18 5,231,943
2 Bà Rịa-Vũng Tàu 159.0 7,951 0.18 12,537,897
3 Bạc Liêu 163.8 8,190 0.18 12,913,858
4 Bến Tre 157.8 7,889 0.18 12,439,584
5 Bình Định 323.1 16,155 0.18 25,473,352
6 Bình Dương 711.9 35,595 0.18 56,126,044
7 Bình Phước 863.8 43,189 0.18 68,100,961
8 Bình Thuận 338.3 16,917 0.18 26,674,055
9 Cà Mau 123.6 6,181 0.18 9,746,339
10 Cần Thơ 1.9 95 0.18 149,435
11 Đắk Lắk 1,049.8 52,492 0.18 82,769,220
12 Đắk Nông 769.1 38,453 0.18 60,632,623
13 Đồng Nai 414.5 20,725 0.18 32,679,282
14 Đồng Tháp 39.9 1,993 0.18 3,143,121
15 Gia Lai 1,531.1 76,554 0.18 120,711,027
16 Hậu Giang 50.9 2,544 0.18 4,011,610
17 Hồ Chí Minh 98.8 4,939 0.18 7,788,446
18 Khánh Hòa 402.4 20,119 0.18 31,723,521
19 Kiên Giang 23.1 1,155 0.18 1,820,653
20 Kon Tum 609.5 30,474 0.18 48,050,753
21 Lâm Đồng 631.8 31,591 0.18 49,813,205
22 Long An 318.1 15,903 0.18 25,076,054
23 Ninh Thuận 165.7 8,285 0.18 13,063,552
24 Phú Yên 507.2 25,360 0.18 39,987,364
25 Quảng Nam 31.0 1,549 0.18 2,441,685
26 Quảng Ngãi 155.3 7,766 0.18 12,245,677
27 Sóc Trăng 102.5 5,123 0.18 8,078,159
28 Tây Ninh 476.3 23,814 0.18 37,549,294
29 Tiền Giang 194.6 9,729 0.18 15,341,054
30 Trà Vinh 132.5 6,627 0.18 10,449,968
31 Vĩnh Long 32.7 1,637 0.18 2,580,918
10,646.3 532,312.7 839,350,651.3

Wednesday, January 24, 2018 MOIT/GIZ Energy Support Programme 44

 2. Economic potential – Scenario 3A

The North The Central The South

Avoided Cost Tariff (VND/kWh) 1.644 1.642 1.673

Equivalent to US$ cent/kWh 7,5551 7,3458 7,4846

Equivalent to GHI (kWh/m2/y) 2499 2438 2452

With solar radiation in Vietnam (according to GHI), and LCOE from

some standard power plants with assumed CAPEX and WACC,

economic potential is zero for scenario 2A when electricity tariff is

equal to avoided cost tariff for each region.

Wednesday, January 24, 2018 MOIT/GIZ Energy Support Programme 45

 2. Economic potential –
Scenario 3B

STT Ten tinh Area_Km2 MW HSCS MWh/y

1 Bình Thuận 120.9081 6,045 0.18 9,532,392.87

2 Ninh Thuận 22.01327 1,101 0.18 1,735,526.05

Wednesday, January 24, 2018 MOIT/GIZ Energy Support Programme 46

3. Cluster
Analysis –
Scenario 1A

Study team carried out

cluster analysis with aim
to classify areas for
prioritizing development
based on criteria of close
distance to power lines
and the distance to the
nearest road. Cluster
criteria are applied
following space constrain
K-Nearest-neighbor by
distance EUCLIDEAN.
Indicator GHI is used for
cluster analysis.

Wednesday, January 24, 2018 MOIT/GIZ Energy Support Programme 47

 2. Economic potential cluster analysis – Scenario 1B

Wednesday, January 24, 2018 MOIT/GIZ Energy Support Programme 48

2. Analysis of development priority criteria

Study team makes proposals based on 3 factors which most impact on

economic effectiveness as follows:

• Global horizontal irradiation (GHI),

• Connection distance to power line (km) , and

• Distance from the power plant to the nearest road (km).

With values calculated for 3 above mentioned criteria for each cluster, study
team could calculate LCOE (above described) and based on this proposed
priority orders for solar power development for each cluster in period 2021 -
2025 and 2026-2030, in principle that areas (clusters) which have higher
economic benefits (the lowest LCOE) will be prioritized for development first.
The results are presented in the following tables.

Wednesday, January 24, 2018 MOIT/GIZ Energy Support Programme 49

3. Development priority orders for clusters (areas) of Southern region by
economic potential – scenario 1B

Khoang cach trung Khoang cach trung binh

Cluster GHI trung binh Tong dien tich (km2) binh toi duong dien toi duong giao thong
(km) (km) LCOE
25 2,072.0 0.6435 7.7380 0.8395 0.0636
28 2,025.3 4.9796 3.2888 1.0753 0.0639
14 2,060.3 35.0721 6.1923 1.4139 0.0641
29 2,005.5 7.0445 1.7317 1.4076 0.0644
21 2,023.0 3.6575 4.8142 1.2075 0.0646
24 2,035.3 3.5659 4.8945 1.5773 0.0646
3 2,014.5 0.4928 0.6040 2.2985 0.0647
9 2,038.2 8.5293 6.2331 1.5000 0.0649
1 2,089.5 1.1334 12.0233 1.4137 0.0650
18 1,995.1 32.9530 1.5638 2.0003 0.0653
6 1,969.0 5.5247 4.3783 0.5860 0.0655
7 2,020.8 2.9339 4.0230 2.2528 0.0655
20 1,963.4 9.9615 1.2174 1.6241 0.0658
19 2,048.0 0.1874 10.6320 1.7560 0.0663
13 2,030.3 2.6526 7.7907 2.1567 0.0664
8 1,979.0 1.4028 1.7390 2.7920 0.0668
15 1,943.0 9.9017 1.9640 1.6764 0.0668
27 1,962.8 12.2212 4.4070 1.5988 0.0669
5 1,920.0 5.1599 1.6423 1.2193 0.0670
26 1,918.9 30.8284 1.5293 1.6371 0.0675
12 1,931.8 18.5778 2.2248 1.8721 0.0675
22 1,907.0 17.7633 1.9942 1.2502 0.0676
16 1,922.0 5.1765 2.3353 1.6400 0.0676
30 1,951.7 35.1443 5.3761 1.7859 0.0678
2 1,899.8 20.6778 2.6334 1.0764 0.0679
17 1,899.0 5.7363 - 2.2010 0.0683
11 1,979.4 10.5708 3.5848 1.4813 0.0691
10 1,888.3 203.1521 4.8892 1.8111 0.0699
23 1,872.0 329.1859 6.8488 1.1631 0.0705
4 1,857.0 508.9144 10.6894 1.8266 0.0732

Wednesday, January 24, 2018 MOIT/GIZ Energy Support Programme 50

 Khoang cach trung Khoang cach trung
Tong dien tich
Cluster GHI trung binh binh toi duong binh toi duong
(km2)
dien (km) giao thong (km) LCOE
22 1,920.5 5.1671 3.4654 1.1520 0.0675
9 1,870.8 0.9653 5.0646 0.4323 0.0690
27 1,862.8 30.8593 2.0413 1.3736 0.0694
1 1,906.6 1.7316 5.7994 1.7993 0.0696
13 1,884.1 3.9736 4.8724 1.3694 0.0696
20 1,876.6 2,107.6591 4.9399 1.3259 0.0698
3. Development priority 29 1,827.8 3.0905 0.5609 1.1012 0.0698
orders for clusters 14
16
1,911.9
1,856.1
3.7317
100.5353
9.3665
3.2946
1.2165
1.2895
0.0699
0.0700
(areas) of Southern 25 1,835.6 90.8971 1.7283 1.3291 0.0702
12 1,838.3 23.9081 2.0357 1.3536 0.0703
region by economic 8 1,824.9 1.0576 1.1929 1.2258 0.0703

potential – Scenario 1A 18
5
1,817.9
1,829.0
1.7795
5.3224
1.0647
1.4624
1.0437
1.5463
0.0703
0.0706
10 1,820.7 5.6764 2.5538 1.0448 0.0708
21 1,824.1 13.5754 1.8865 1.3598 0.0708
11 1,831.5 6.4835 2.6388 1.3754 0.0708
24 1,843.5 185.9327 5.6432 1.2395 0.0712
30 1876.8 0.8784 9.8556 1.1516 0.0713
28 1,845.3 40.6122 6.5982 1.3085 0.0716
3 1,828.1 9.7296 4.5882 1.3753 0.0716
2 1,819.2 2.0991 6.7790 1.2421 0.0726
15 1,876.0 1.7448 13.7032 1.0732 0.0726
26 1,923.3 6.0560 19.7475 0.9279 0.0727
19 1,828.8 6.7942 8.5353 1.4590 0.0731
17 1,838.5 57.1327 10.4850 1.3359 0.0733
6 1,823.5 6.0659 8.7029 2.0316 0.0741
7 1,824.2 2.5184 14.2906 1.0085 0.0748
4 1,831.0 11.2179 16.4593 1.5770 0.0760
23 1,887.0 8.5523 25.9025 1.6679 0.0772

Wednesday, January 24, 2018 MOIT/GIZ Energy Support Programme 51

Analysis of results for Scenario 1A

Based on preliminary classification results for prioritizing development of areas with the
lowest LCOE in Central and Southern regions, the study team found that:
1. The Central region has the lowest LCOE, high economic potential of solar PV power
development, therefore, economic potential will be almost fully developed in period 2021-
2025, brining in the highest economic benefits for the country. Some areas (cluster 24 & 4),
where LCOE is relatively higher than that in other areas, will be developed in the period
2026- 2030.
2. In the Southern region, the areas to be developed in period 2021 – 2025 include Tay Ninh,
Binh Duong, Binh Phuoc (cluster 20), border area between Dong Nai and Binh Thuan, Long
An, Ba Ria- Vung Tau (cluster 16).
3. Other areas with economic potential of solar PV power will be developed in period 2026 –
2030
4. With the above mentioned development priority orders scenario, in period 2021 – 2025,
137GW of solar power economic potential will be developed, mainly in Central area and Tay
Ninh, Binh Duong, Binh Phuoc.
5. The remained portion of economic potential ( 66GW) should be prioritized to develop in
period 2025 – 2030, concentrated in Southern provinces, and highland areas.

Wednesday, January 24, 2018 MOIT/GIZ Energy Support Programme 52

Analysis of results for scenario 1B

In scenario 1B, there are many economic potential areas, including areas in the North, which are
classified according to economic solar power development priority orders proposed by Study Team
through result analysis, are as follows :
1. Similar to the above mentioned low scenario, Central region has the lowest LCOE, high
economic potential of solar power, therefore, most economic potential will be fully
developed in period 2021- 2025, brining in the highest economic benefits for the country.
Some areas, where LCOE is relatively higher than that in other areas, will be developed in
the period 2026- 2030. 187GW is anticipated to be developed in these areas under this high
scenario.
2. In the Southern region, the areas to be developed in period 2021 – 2025 include Tay Ninh,
Binh Duong, Binh Phuoc (cluster 20), entire Dong Nai and Binh Thuan, Long An, , Ba Ria-
Vung Tau (cluster 16).
3. Other land areas with economic potential of solar power will be developed in period 2026 – 2030,
including all economic potential area of the Northern region.
4. With the above development priority order scenario, in period 2021 – 2025, 424GW of solar power
economic potential will be developed, mainly in Tay Ninh, Binh Duong, Binh Phuoc and Central region.
5. The remained portion of economic potential ( 309 GW) should be prioritized to develop in period 2025 –
2030, concentrated in Southern provinces, and highland areas, and entire area of the Northern region.

Wednesday, January 24, 2018 MOIT/GIZ Energy Support Programme 53

 Projects proposed and
economic potential areas

1. Through space analysis and using of map overlaying method, it is easy to

identify that areas with solar power economic potential for development
and proposed in cluster analysis are relatively overlapped with projects
proposed to develop in period to 2020.
2. However, many projects proposed in these areas are excluded because
factors of land, urban population, land use shift,… are not updated and
supplemented, costs of grid connection and system are not foreseen.
3. Furthermore, land classification system of Vietnam (by MONRE)
is different from classification system ESA-CCI used in this
assessment, therefore it may lead to exclude some areas. The
resolution of input data set of land use map also plays an
important role in exclusion of areas from economic potential
area for solar power development
4. This also indicates that in proposing projects for development,
investors or localities often lack of overview, long term
orientation and information necessary for localizing the most
economic potential areas, clusters for solar power development.
With this GIS solar power potential assessment and analysis
software, localities and investors will have useful tools in
orientation of potential areas for solar power development.

Wednesday, January 24, 2018 MOIT/GIZ Energy Support Programme 54

 Conclusions

Solar potential assessment study developed a scientific and accuracy methodology for
assessment of solar power theoretical potential, technical potential and economic
potential based on the international experience.
Even though there are many limitations, especially digital maps lacking of input data
and actual data are unproved, the solar potential assessment study, which was first
time carried out in Vietnam based on digital GIS maps, has provided detailed
assessment of solar potentials on space maps which quantified figures by province,
area as well as preliminary assessment of environmental impacts of solar power
development according to quantification criteria.
The analysis results indicate that Vietnam has huge solar energy potential (see table
below) which is relatively evenly distributed in Central and Southern regions and
partially in northwest areas of the Northern region.

Theoretical potential Technical potential

360,000 GW 6,888 GW

Wednesday, January 24, 2018 MOIT/GIZ Energy Support Programme 55

 Conclusions

Economic Potential Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3

a. LACE = ACT 204 GW 0 GW 0 GW

b. LACE = FIT 734 GW 532 GW 7,14 GW

Analysis of scenarios shows that calculation results strongly fluctuate and depend on
input assumptions, especially for economic potential. The results of cluster analysis
indicate that areas which need priority on development are the best economic
potential areas which have the lowest social costs and also need better support
mechanism such as development of infrastructure (roads, power system and power
substations, etc.).
Even though results are still limited and very preliminary because of insufficient input
database, this study is a break-through step in application of GIS tools in renewable
energy planning in general and solar power planning in particular. The study
quantified solar potentials which were only qualitatively estimated in the previous
studies. It needs the next studies for finalizing results, reviewing, making more
accurate data and assessment of market potential and plan implementation …

Wednesday, January 24, 2018 MOIT/GIZ Energy Support Programme 56

 Thank you!

Wednesday, January 24, 2018 MOIT/GIZ Energy Support Programme 57

4. Assessment of environmental, economical
and social impacts
Dang Huong Giang, Institute of Energy
Hà Nội, 24.1.2018
CONTENTS

1. Assessment of land use impacts

2. Resettlement
3. Assessment of environmental impacts and GHG
emission reduction potential
4. Environmental protection measures
5. Conclusions and recommendations

Wednesday, January 24, 2018 MOIT/GIZ Energy Support Programme 59

1. Assessment of land use impacts

Grid connected solar power projects require large flat land areas. These land
areas are anticipated from unused land, shifting forest land, agricultural land,
water surface land, people land, public structure land … into industrial land
for projects. These lands will be restored to the initial state at the end of
projects.

With land occupation coefficient of 1.2ha/MWp for solar power plants

according to Circular No. 16/2017/TT-BCT

Wednesday, January 24, 2018 MOIT/GIZ Energy Support Programme 60

1. Assessment of land use impacts

Solar power projects are concentrated in Central and Southern regions, where
the total solar irradiation is highest in the country.

Central region: unused land, wild land, production forest land will be used for
solar power projects

South west area: Changing land use purpose of inefficient salt production land
and inundated land, inefficient one crop land and inefficient production forest
land.

South east area: Changing land use purpose of semi-inundated land of HPP
reservoirs and brushwood land and vegetable carpet.

Wednesday, January 24, 2018 MOIT/GIZ Energy Support Programme 61

2. Resettlement

Solar power plants are planned to be constructed in public land, wild land ,
exhausted land, one-crop land, inefficient agricultural land, production forest
land, salt production land, hydropower reservoir land …. According to results
of investigation in 2017, number of households to be removed from solar
power project areas during preparation of supplemented plan and
construction time is small. In future, construction of solar power plants will
impact very little on resettlement and replacement of households. The
damages of households will be compensated by project owners in accordance
with regulations.

Wednesday, January 24, 2018 MOIT/GIZ Energy Support Programme 62

3. Assessment of environmental impacts and GHG emission
reduction potential

Environmental impact assessment is performed based on identification of main

environmental issues wherefrom affected objects, affection scope and extent of
impacts will be determined. The socio-economic and ecological environment
impacts of implementation of one solar power project can be summarized as
follows :

Reduction of exploitation and use of fossil fuels

Impacts on ecological systems and biodiversity
Generation of solid wastes, dusts, pollutants deteriorating environmental
quality
Impacts on people life and social security
Ensuring electricity supply for socio-economic development requirement
Reduction of GHG emission
Promotion of science and technology
Wednesday, January 24, 2018 MOIT/GIZ Energy Support Programme 63
Reduction of fossil fuel exploitation and use

With anticipated solar power capacity of 204 GW in base scenario means

equivalent capacity of fossil fuel power plants will be replaced by solar power.
With one GW of fossil fuel power plants replaced by solar power, 0,85million
tons of coal will be reduced every year in period to 2025.

Contribution in reduction of exploitation and use of natural resources and

reduction of import coal from foreign countries. From there, reduction of
pressure on capital requirement by coal sector and reduction of risks of
environmental pollution in coal exploitation and use.

Wednesday, January 24, 2018 MOIT/GIZ Energy Support Programme 64

Impacts on ecological system and biodiversity

Because solar power projects will be developed on wild land , exhausted

agricultural land, production forest land, inundated land … therefore, impacts
on ecological system and biodiversity is insignificant and can be prevented,
mitigated if solar power projects are developed in potential areas as defined in
plan.

Wednesday, January 24, 2018 MOIT/GIZ Energy Support Programme 65

 Generation of solid wastes, dusts and pollutants
causing environmental deterioration

Solar power plants use solar energy for electricity generation, not creating
dusts, toxic gases, especially GHG emission which causes climate change on
the earth.
These are positive impacts because reduction of fossil fuels means
reduction of dusts and ash in comparison with coal fired power plant with
the same amount of generated electricity.

Wednesday, January 24, 2018 MOIT/GIZ Energy Support Programme 66

 Impacts on people life and social security

Increasing economic development, income for laborers and local

authorities, creating new jobs and facilitating infrastructure development,
increasing people life conditions thank to increase of industry, commerce
and auxiliary services.
On-site power source is safe and sufficient for production and living
demand of people , improving people life by accessing to modern
technologies. Increasing knowledge and cultural level due to easier
information exchange, accessing science and technology and experience
from other places.

Wednesday, January 24, 2018 MOIT/GIZ Energy Support Programme 67

 Ensuring of electricity supply for socio-economic
development

Diversifying power resources, at national level if dependency on single

power plant the risk of loss of energy security is increased. Therefore,
development of solar power plants will help decrease pressure on national
energy security.
Electricity from solar PV sources will help to reduce pressure on energy
security Ensuring enough electricity for production, living, entertainment
…, or in other words , electricity for socio-economic development and
improvement of people life.

Wednesday, January 24, 2018 MOIT/GIZ Energy Support Programme 68

 GHG emission reduction

Climate change has been impacting severely on ecological environment,

threatening life of humankind on the earth. Climate change is attributable
to GHG concentration in the atmosphere, which causes increased
temperature of the earth and its consequences are global issues such as
melting ice, sea water level rise...
Potential of grid connected solar power plants can reduce CO2 emission
around 1.39 million tons of CO2 , contributing in reducing CO2 emission
intensity of Vietnam power grid.

Wednesday, January 24, 2018 MOIT/GIZ Energy Support Programme 69

 Science technology development promotion

With objectives to reduce cost, localization of equipment for solar power

plants , technology makers carried out research of new materials,
improvement of PV cell efficiency and reducing occupied flat land area.
The tendencies mentioned above are solutions for solar power sector not
being backward in the market in comparison to thermal power and
hydropower sectors …
The workers necessary for maintenance and repairing of equipment are
required in terms of skills and quantity. These are opportunities for State
management agencies to make clear strategy on training manpower for
energy in general and renewable energy in particular.

Wednesday, January 24, 2018 MOIT/GIZ Energy Support Programme 70

4. Environmental protection measures

The negative impacts of solar power projects is occupancy of large land areas and
impacts in construction period.
In order to mitigate impacts on land area use, in planning stage, it needs to choose
proper land areas which have potential for development of solar power such as
wild land , exhausted agricultural land, production forest land, inundated land ….
The construction measures will be applied for each project during construction
stage in order to reduce negative impacts. It should to comply with environmental
protection measures specified in regulations so that projects meet environmental
standards.
In the plant dismantlement stage when solar plants end their lifetime and
terminate operation, a dismantlement plan is necessary for avoiding impacts of
dusts and exhausted gases emission, gathering wastes and used solar panels. It also
needs a re-plantation program to bring land to the initial state.
Wednesday, January 24, 2018 MOIT/GIZ Energy Support Programme 71
 5. Conclusions and recommendations

Table: Benefits and annual emission reduction parameters of

solar power potential assessment

Indicators 1 GW 10 GW 100 GW

Reduced coal consumption (million tons) 0,85 8,5 85

Reduced water consumption (million m3) 3,04 30,43 304,3

Reduced ash disposal (million tons) 0,38 3,78 37,78

Reduced dust emission(million tons) 1,04 10,37 103,70

Reduced sulphur dioxide emission (million tons) 0,02 0,16 1,59

Reduced nitrogen oxide emission (million tons) 6,36 63,58 635,8

Reduced carbon dioxide emission (million tons) 1,39 13,86 138,62

Wednesday, January 24, 2018 MOIT/GIZ Energy Support Programme 72

5. Conclusions and recommendations

Solar power brings in huge environmental benefits in comparison with conventional

power plants. Solar power plant can be considered as clean and safe energy source.

Solar power also brings in other socio-economic benefits such as supplying electricity to
the national power grid, satisfying a portion of power demand for socio-economic
development of the area and the whole country.

Solar power also helps diversification of power sources and energy security, providing
job opportunities, reducing dependence on import of fossil fuels and promoting rural
electrification in remote, isolated mountainous areas..

Wednesday, January 24, 2018 MOIT/GIZ Energy Support Programme 73

5. Conclusions and recommendations

However, there is no renewable energy project could totally avoid environmental

impacts, even solar PV power technology. Latent environmental impacts depend on scale
and type of projects and usually related to specific locations (impacts on land,
landscapes). Most adverse impacts are related to plant construction stage and plant
dismantlement stage. But these adverse impacts are small and can be reduced by
mitigations measures.
Depending on extent of impacts of related factors, investors, functional agencies shall
make suitable decisions by serious considering environmental issues. To achieve this
purpose, environmental impact assessment for solar power projects must estimate
extent of latent environmental impacts and propose suitable mitigation measures which
play an important role in project design and public acceptance.

Wednesday, January 24, 2018 MOIT/GIZ Energy Support Programme 74

 Thank you!

Wednesday, January 24, 2018 MOIT/GIZ Energy Support Programme 75

 5. PV Project Implementation

Eng. Gaëtan Masson

PV Markzttan Masson, Director Eng. Yannis Vasilopoulos
Becquerel Institute
 Review of PV Components
 Photovoltaic Modules
 Fixed tilt or Tracker System
 Inverter Stations
 Grouping boxes Level 2
 Inverters
 LV/MV Transformers
 Switchgears/Protections
 Grouping Boxes Level 1
 Monitoring system ( scada )
 Security System ( Fencing, Cameras, IRR Beams)
 Evacuation Line to the Grid
 Implementation structure
EPC COMPANIES LOCAL INSTALLERS
Engineering, procurement and Local companies with experience in
construction companies with mechanical and electrical installation
experience and approved by the and civil works, subcontracted by EPC
financing parties and carry the Companies
risk of construction.

PV PROJECT

FINANCIAL CONSULTANTS
International and local Legal, technical, financial
financial institutions that and accounting advisors
offer debt financing to the are hired by the
project sponsor. In some stakeholders to assist with
cases 3rd party equity their expertize in the
investors and bridge project implementation
financing is also required.
 Phases of a standard PV Project
Implementation Phases (> 50MW plant) Indicative Tasks Indicative Time

Overlook and support all project

Project Management and Reporting Month 0-8
operations

Topographical, Geotechnical, Tech

Studies, Design, Construction Detail Engineering Descriptions, Drawings, Technical Month 1
Calculations

Modules, Inverters, Cabins, Structures,

Procurement of Equipment and Services Electrical Equipment, Monitoring, Month 1,2,3
Surveillance, Installation Services

Construction Facilities, Access, Fencing,

Site Establishment and Civil Works Month 2,3,4,5
Foundations, Trenching, Drainage

Module PlacementStructure Assembly,

Mechanical Installation Month 3,4,5,6
Equipment placement

Electrical wiring and installation of all

Electrical Installation material and equipment. Inteconnection Month 6,7
Works.

Testing of electrical equipment and

Commissioning and Testing, Interconnection Month 7,8
Performance Testing

Monitoring, Module Cleaning and

Operation and Maintenance maintenance of equipment following Month >9 for project life
manufacturer’s guidelines.
Standard 50MW project
Land preparation

Structure installation

Trenching, equipment placement and

mechanical installation

Workforce can range

between 30 – 200 workers
Electrical installation and wiring
at site during the different
stages of the project in
correlation to the time
deadlines Testing and
commissioning
Standard 50MW project
Workforce can range between 30 – 200
workers at site during the different stages of
the project in correlation to the time
deadlines.

40 – 30 – 20 rule

40% of unskilled work force

30% of mechanical and civil technicians and
installers
20% of electrical technicians with experience
in low voltage and a small percentage with
Medium voltage certification.
From Commissioning to Oper. & Maint.
 The Permitting Phase
 Environmental and Social Impact Assessment,
following all related country and local regulations, in
parallel with international rules and financing partner
guidelines.

- Pre feasibility and feasibility study before

project execution.
- Local experienced consultant
- Work closely with all stake holders, from the
government to the local community

 Solar Projects have minimum environmental

Impact.
Example: PV plant close to railway
 Use of Local Personnel
 Difficult to identify and hire personnel in new PV
markets.

 Training sessions
 Mix working groups
 Security is essential
 Foundations – Civil Works
 Geology and hydrology study to define drainage works

 Geotechnical study is necessary

 Pull Out Tests are necessary

 The sub soil can hide surprises, that may cause major delays and re
engineering
 Logistics Plan
 One of the most underestimated risks in a PV Project.

 Requires a very detailed and well-communicated

plan.

 Support from local authorities

 Minimize impact to the local community

 Health and safety come first.

 Weather during construction
 Weather can play a major role in the successful
completion of a utility project.

 Snow, heavy rainfall, hails, tornadoes are the big

enemies.
 Interconnection Works
 Always in the critical path in a PV Project

 Step up transformers have long lead times

 Requires full cooperation with the utility

 Site Management and Planning
• Construction scheduling is another key to successful
completion.

• Daily, weekly and monthly reporting is required to

monitor the work progress.

• Daily meetings are required to sync all working

crews at site.

• Parallel tasking from several subcontractors to

achieve timely completion.
 Quality Control > Rapid implementation
 Quality Control team applies Project Execution
standards.

 The QC team always comes from independent

engineering firms.

 Daily monitoring throughout the site from civil,

electrical and mechanical experts.
 Secure Financing
 All starts from financial closing
 Experienced managers who are in continuous
communications with advisors from the financial
institutions.
 Fast turnaround of documentation
 Secure scheduled cash outs through out the plant
execution
Critical Success Factors
• Safety Program, 1st Priority
• Quality and continuity of the project team throughout the project.
• Timely application of rules and regulations
• Quality of basic and detailed engineering
• Timely engagement of competent contractors
• Early placement of purchase orders
• Early completion of the Environmental Impact Assessment

The following key principles will guide the execution of

the project:
• Health, Safety and Environmental (HSE) issues will be paramount and conform to the regulations
• Maximize utilization of local goods and services
• Optimization of time schedule
• Ensure that prescribed quality objectives are achieved. Quality assurance.

THANK YOU FOR LISTENING

Thanks for your attention
[email protected]

Becquerelinstitute.org
 6. From PV Potential to PV
development. Lessons’ learnt.

Eng. Gaëtan Masson

PV Markzttan Masson, Director Eng. Yannis Vasilopoulos
Becquerel Institute
 BECQUEREL INSTITUTE - BRUSSELS
• In-house experts / Global network of
• Research oriented experts and stakeholders
Institute and consulting • PV Market Alliance partner
company for Solar
Technologies.
• Global PV Market
Analysis including
competitiveness and
economics.
• Industry analysis
together with quality &
reliability.
• Support for PV
development
• Integration into
electricity systems (grids
and markets).
 Agenda

- 1. PV potential for Vietnam

- Understanding what is PV and which installations can be realized.
- Not underestimating PV
- 2. From potential to a market
- Financial aspects
- System stability
- Industry & manufacturing
- 3. Going forward
- How to select the best projects: tendering with technology
aspects.
- Tendering experiences globally and their main results
- Non-economic constraints in tenders
PV Potential for vietnam
Understanding what is PV
• Photovoltaics (PV) converts light into electricity (DC)

• This electricity is converted with an inverter into AC that can be injected into the
grid or used to power electric appliances.

• Not to be mixed with CSP (Concentrated Solar Power) or Solar Thermal (producing
heat)
 DISTRIBUTED and CENTRALIZED

Distributed PV Producers
Revenues
= Electricity sales
Wholesale market
Revenues One
prices or feed-in tariff
= technology or PPA
Savings on the
electricity bill

Prosumers Centralized PV
DISTRIBUTED and CENTRALIZED
Distributed PV Centralized PV
Energy localy consumed
Prosumers rather than being injected
into the grid

One
technology

N/A
Producers
 CENTRALIZED PV - Utility-scale
TRENDS
- < 3 USDcents/kWh is now feasible in areas
with high solar irradiation.
- Reducing costs is still the challenge
- Ad hoc modules
- Bifacial modules (see on the right)
- Longer lifetime (with repowering)
- …
- Movable PV systems (for shorter
projects)
- From fields to… water  floatting PV
systems
- Double use of land: PV for agriculture.
A Scalable Technology for all
Applications Sizes
• Can be connected to the
grid (99%) or off-grid (1%)
• System size starts at 40W
(Solar Home Systems)
• Residential (5kW),
commercial 50kW),
industrial systems (500kW)
• Solar Farms: from 1 MW to
the largest (2016): 1 GW
(China)
• Building Integrated (BIPV)
 SCALE OF SYSTEMS
Ideal system size?
Largest system currently developed: 1 GW
(China, India)
1 to 100 MW represent the usual range.
Larger systems exist but in total, number
is limited.
- 50th largest = 104 MWp
- 100th largest = 67 MWp
- 150th largest = 50 MWp
System size often depends on regulations
and policy choices. Call for tenders can
impose a system size (Jordan, Dubai). In
order countries, it is not defined. System
size can depend on the cost of grid
connection.
Larger systems are more complex to
connect to the grid.
Feed-in tariff systems have a tendency to
produce smaller systems.
Mix of distributed and centralized is a
 underestimations

PV development
has always been
underestimated.
It has been
faster than what
many regulators
thought.
It is important to
assess its
development
correctly.
2. From potential to market
 rationale
Transforming the PV potential into real installations
requires a dedicated set of policies and the right
environment.

When PV has not yet reached competitiveness with

conventional electricity sources, it requires the right
incentives to motivate investors and cover the risks.

This was the rationale behind feed-in tariffs, green

certificates, or now tenders with PPA.
 3 steps
- Financial aspects
- Ensuring the right incentives before and after
competitiveness has been reached
- Reducing the costs
- Supporting investors
- Ensuring electricity system reliability
- Understanding the future electricity demand (volume
and load shape)
- Frame PV development
- Leverage PV development
- Support local manufacturing, support the economy
 Financial aspects #1
Cost of PV installations:
- The current cost of PV installations in Vietnam is
not representative of international markets:
- It will decline thanks to an increased experience of
local actors.
- Simplified administrative regulations
- It will continue to decline on international markets
- If the cost of PV electricity is not competitive yet,
the role of the government is to provide an
incentive, at the right level.
- This incentive should be revised on a regular
basis to cope with international prices variations.
 Financial aspects #2

Lowest ever: 0.021 USD/kWh – Chile)

 Financial aspects #3
Attracting investors:
- The cost of PV electricity depends on the cost of
capital. This is even the main factor for cost
decline.
- High costs reflect often a perception of high risk
for the investment. The government can reduce
the risk by guaranteeing the revenues, propose
green loans, protect foreign and local investors,
cover the most delicate risks (during
development and construction).
- Ensuring quality and reliability is also essential.
High quality means directly low cost of capital.
 System stability #1

PV
produces
electricity
during the
day,
contrary to
wind.
 System stability #2

- A part of
PV
electricity
is locally
consumed
(prosumers
), the rest
is injected
into the
grid.
 System stability #3

- PV development (prosumers and utility-scale) must be

integrated in a long-term energy strategy.
- PV prosumers reduce the load during the day, making
the ramp-rates before evening-peaks more important:
this can be managed but requires to be well
understood.
- PV can solve grid congestion issues, if plants are located
in the right places: the grid operators could propose
specific locations for PV plants.
- Grid planning made without PV as useless and should
be completely revised.
 LEVERAGE PV development
- PV can support the local economy, with the
right incentives.
- Local manufacturing can be encouraged and
supported through the right policies.
- Local content can help local compagnies to
develop.
- When international competitors are stronger,
policies can support at the beginning the
establishment of local companies and their
development.
 3. Going forward
- Competitive PV with the right grid
infrastructure is not enough for a sound
development.
- How to avoid a too-fast development of PV?
- Most contries have selected a tendering process
to avoid too many installations.
- Tendering experiences globally show that tenders
are driving the prices down very fast. But they are
also favouring the cheapest international
competitors.
- Some tenders (France for instance) tend to favour
local manufacturers and to impose environmental
constraints (for instance, limited CO2 content)
 Tenders and alternatives
- Tenders are now used all over the world to frame
PV development.
- Tenders grant in general grid connection AND a
long-term revenue (PPA – Power Purchase
Agreement) guaranteed by the government.
- Tenders can comprise additional parameters,
such as local content (to favour local
manufacturing), geographical constraints (to
optimize grid development), environmental
constraints etc.
- Alternative policies can be used to frame PV
development.
 SCENARIOS FOR PV DEVELOPMENT
International experience?
- PV develops first with financial support
- Call for tenders are spreading fast (market
control, financial control)
- PV develops first with utility-scale, then comes
rapidly distributed PV (but policies (self-
consumption, net-metering) are more complex to
put in place.
- Some cases in SE-Asia: Thailand, Malaysia,
Philippines, Japan, Korea, China. Each country
selected what it found best.
 CONCLUSIONS
- PV develops much faster than expected once it is allowed to
develop.
- Installation takes little time compared to any other source of
electricity.
- It is highly scalable, which means it works from 50 W (SHS, see
Bangladesh 6M program) to GW-scale (India, China, UAE…).
- Distributed PV is easier to integrate in grids but policies to frame it
are more complex (out of scope here). In any case, it must be
considered in all scenarios (see residual load assumptions).
- Simplifying permitting allows to decrease the cost of electricity.
- Maintenance is essential, esp. in hot-humid environment.
- Grids are more resilient that they appears but challenges for PV
management in grids but be carefully considered. Esp.
Disconnecion frequencies, ramp-up/ramp-down rates, black-start
capability, etc.
Thanks for your attention
[email protected]

Becquerelinstitute.org