10/2/2020 Successful agricultural transformations: Six core elements of planning and delivery | McKinsey
Chemicals
Successful agricultural
transformations: Six core elements of
planning and delivery
December 1, 2017 | Article
By Sara Boettiger, Nicolas Denis , and Sunil Sanghvi
How can countries increase their odds of a successful rural
transformation?
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T
he most e ective way to improve the lives of millions in poverty is to support
agriculture in developing countries. Most of the world’s poor are farmers, and those
who are not spend much of their income on food. Transforming a country’s agriculture
sectorSign
upjobs,
can create forraise
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incomes, newmalnutrition,
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kick-start the economy on
a pathMaterials
to middle-income growth. In fact, almost every industrialized nation began its
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economic ascent with an agricultural transformation. Recent examples include Brazil,
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China, and Vietnam, each of which at least doubled the value of its agriculture sector
within this topic.of starting its transformation. Many other countries in Africa, Asia, and
20 years
Latin America are earlier on the path of transformation.
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10/2/2020 Successful agricultural transformations: Six core elements of planning and delivery | McKinsey
For some, agricultural transformation has not advanced as planned or has stalled.
Navigating the complexity of a transformation is invariably tough for governments, even
though they may prioritize agricultural investment and recognize how important it is to get
right. This is especially true in an era in which governments are seeking agricultural
transformations that meet multiple goals simultaneously. In addition to traditional
economic development and poverty reduction goals, governments are also focusing their
agricultural transformation plans on Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by
considering, for example, climate-smart strategies, women’s economic empowerment, and
biodiversity.
The drivers of agricultural transformation are multidimensional, interrelated, and change
over time, but they can be organized into categories to provide a better opportunity for
pragmatic diagnostics and decision making on national priorities. After running more than
30 country diagnostics, we found that the drivers fall into three main categories. First,
there are elements of “transformation readiness.” Changes to a country’s institutional
framework, governing mechanisms, and political environment can signi cantly in uence
the likelihood of accelerating an agricultural transformation. Second, the quality of the
national agricultural plan or strategy is critical. Last, there are drivers related to delivery
mechanisms. This category focuses on what is needed to translate the national agricultural
plan into on-the-ground impact. This includes the ways in which countries manage
decision making and progress against targets as well as how they use change agents to
support the large-scale behavior change among smallholder farmers that underpins a
successful agricultural transformation.
In this article, we consider the second and third categories. We focus on six core elements
of a national agricultural plan (“what to do”) that increase the odds of a successful rural
transformation, and then re ect on elements of the on-the-ground delivery of an
agricultural transformation (“how to do it”). In a companion article, “Readiness for
Signtransformation,”
agricultural up for emails onanew
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organizational,
political components that increase the likelihood of success for a government’s good
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agricultural transformation policies and investments.
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What to do: Six core elements of an
agricultural transformation plan
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10/2/2020 Successful agricultural transformations: Six core elements of planning and delivery | McKinsey
Although rural families often make their living from many di erent types of work,
improvements in farming have proved to be the path toward widespread, poverty-reducing
growth in the rural economy. Successful agricultural transformations have focused on the
farming household, providing opportunities for farmers to earn a better income. For some,
that will mean raising farm productivity or shifting the mix of production to include higher-
value crops and livestock. For others, the right choice will be to do less farming and take
advantage of employment options o the farm. As farmers have more money in their
pockets, they spend more in the local economy, creating jobs, opportunity, and more
demand for agricultural goods. The question is how to accelerate, sustain, and scale these
growth cycles. For that, a well-crafted agricultural plan is required as part of a country’s
overall economic development approach. There are six elements that distinguish a
superior agricultural plan.
Prioritized and differentiated strategies
Developing an agricultural transformation plan demands prioritization—a plan will not
succeed if it tries to cover everything. Instead, it should focus on the changes that are
most likely to kick-start rural economic growth. Successful plans identify goals in a limited
number of crop and livestock value chains, cross-cutting agriculture sector enablers (such
as lower transportation costs or access to irrigation), and speci c geographies.
Ethiopia and Morocco are experiencing transformations that show clear focus in terms of
crops, transformation enablers, and geographies. Morocco’s Plan Vert started with seven
value chains, expanded to nine, and focused on six geographic areas. Ethiopia’s
agricultural transformation plan initially prioritized three value chains and ve geographic
areas. Countries often prioritize a combination of both food security crops as well as
export or higher-value commodities. Rwanda’s Crop Intensi cation Program, launched in
2007, Sign up for
for instance, emails
balanced onbetween
land use new intercropping
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of diverse crops and
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of six priority crops. The country’s 2013 agricultural transformation
plan included speci ed priority agricultural value chains in both food and export
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commodities (including apiculture, dairy, sheries, and meat).[ 1 ] Our experience suggests
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that many countries’ agricultural transformation plans are overly ambitious, cover too many
value chains, and fail to focus critical resources. Eight of the 13 national agricultural plans
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that we analyzed in Africa didn’t set clear priorities.
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10/2/2020 Successful agricultural transformations: Six core elements of planning and delivery | McKinsey
A second related success factor is di erentiation. Successful agricultural transformation
plans di erentially target agri-food systems and geographic areas with tailored strategies.
For example, more productive land that is already well connected to markets, such as
irrigated land in Morocco, can support large- or small-scale farms; agribusiness is easier to
scale there. In more remote areas, though, with bad roads, poor-quality land, and less well-
connected markets, di erent strategies are needed. These might involve greater focus on
staple crop productivity and social safety nets. Most plans don’t make these distinctions.
A third related success factor lies in weighing the trade-o s among multiple objectives.
Governments work toward a number of di erent goals, including growth in agro-
processing, reduced unemployment, lower poverty incidence, food self-su ciency,
economic growth, increased exports, or lower rates of malnutrition. If these trade-o s are
explicitly considered and communicated when developing the agricultural transformation
plan, it is possible to tailor the choice of value chains, cross-cutting enablers, and
geographies to di erentially achieve the government’s chosen goals. For example, one
strategy might focus on raising the productivity of smallholder farmers’ food crops in a
particular region where rural poverty and stunting (from malnutrition) rates are high, while
a concurrent strategy focuses on what is needed to accelerate growth in the co ee sector
to boost export revenue and job creation. When the trade-o s among multiple objectives
are not explicitly integrated into the agricultural transformation plan, progress is
characterized by underdelivery across too many, sometimes competing, objectives.
Market-driven opportunities for farmers
Agricultural transformations often focus too much on volume rather than value and on
productivity of row crops rather than opportunities for high-value crops, downstream
processing, and livestock. Farmers everywhere are businesspeople. Farming households
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and nonfarm work.
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they feed their familiesarticles
with some of the farm output as well as sell into markets, they
make decisions based on their potential pro t, risk, and cash ow across family food
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consumption as well as sales. Too often, agricultural plans recommend particular
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commodities without paying attention to this basic calculus of farmer household
economics. Successful agricultural transformation plans give farmers the opportunity to
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raise their household incomes.
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10/2/2020 Successful agricultural transformations: Six core elements of planning and delivery | McKinsey
In Morocco, for example, important public- and private-sector stakeholders concluded that
the most e ective way to address rural poverty was to grow high-value crops (for example,
tomatoes and olives) on irrigated lands (while accelerating investment in irrigation) to
supply regional urban, European, and other export markets. This choice dramatically
increased the income opportunities for small farmers and has led to an average land
productivity increase of 30 percent.
In some cases, high-value crops or livestock will not be a viable opportunity for farmers,
and promoting the intensi cation of row crops makes more sense. Even then, the focus
should be pro tability for the farmer, including attention to sustainability, quality, storage,
and processing.
Change agents identified and mobilized
The success of any agricultural transformation relies on how well millions of smallholders
and small- and medium-size enterprises can be helped to change farming practices as
quickly and e ectively as possible. The critical enabler, without which an agricultural
transformation is likely to fail, is a frontline “change agent” that helps farmers modify their
practices. Change agents are people who farmers trust and interact with regularly. The
high-level objectives of a transformation are realized in practice only when they are
e ectively translated to smaller, on-farm shifts. For example, increased productivity in the
dairy sector might be achieved through farmers accessing better animal health
technologies and better cattle breeds or joining dairy cooperatives to sell their milk.
Change agents provide the critical interface with farmers. To catalyze this, a change agent
might be the person providing extension knowledge, o ering nancing for farming inputs
such as fertilizer, aggregating crops, or facilitating marketing services. For example, a
change agent can help farmers make the transition from growing wheat to more
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agents exist inWe'll email
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countries’ topic. in national agricultural extension services as critical to agricultural
transformation. Ethiopia’s investments in expanding the agricultural extension system are
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agricultural transformation. for
Other mechanisms
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organizing farmer-facing change agents, though, have also played critical historical roles in
transformation. Agricultural cooperatives, for example, can provide technical assistance to
farmers but can also fundamentally change the farmers’ risk and potential revenue by
providing access to storage, equipment, nance, and marketing services. Small-scale
stockists, or input dealers, also have an important in uence on the changes required
among smallholder farmers if agricultural transformation is to succeed (for example,
promoting the adoption of improved, higher-yielding varieties of seed).
Morocco designated farm managers who interacted with a large number of smaller farmers
through contracts as the main category of change agent. In each case, the countries made
a big e ort to recruit, support, and manage the performance of these change agents.
Other kinds of organizations with change agents include warehouse aggregators, food
processors, inputs distribution centers, and farmer collectives.
The appropriate choice of change agent might vary depending on what part of the
transformation plan is involved and the characteristics of the country’s agri-food systems.
The key is to ensure the use of appropriate metrics and incentives, su cient training, and
performance management of the change agents. Selecting change agents is critical in
every agricultural transformation, yet we rarely see this step addressed systematically.
Finding the right starting points for scale
Change in agricultural systems requires multiple parallel advancements. For example,
improvements in agricultural extension and seed systems might enable farmers to switch
to a more productive hybrid seed, but lack of access to fertilizer (upon which the hybrid
depends) could prevent productivity increases and leave the farmer unwilling to buy hybrid
seed next time. As in any complex economic system, when so many elements are
interrelated, any one of them can become a constraint and stall progress.
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complex plans
this with a high potential for failure. Instead, the best agricultural transformation
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plans have two critical characteristics: they anticipate the need for agility, and they
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selectively focus on the points of the system where small changes are likely to cause larger
shifts. These focus areas could be within speci c geographies or within particularly
in uential value chains.
Overly prescriptive and in exible strategies in agricultural transformation fail because of
the complexity of agriculture-based economies. For example, designing a national
promotion of new varieties of high-yielding maize among smallholders, along with
investment plans for storage and marketing, may not work if the storage facilities are not
placed in the right locations. Suppose the production of maize in some areas outstrips
storage capacity. Roads are bad, and transport to other markets is prohibitively expensive.
In these areas, the glut of maize depresses the local market price, and farmers may return
the next season to growing their old, cheaper varieties of maize because they lost money
on the new one. A di erent, less top-down approach might be to enable change agents to
set local targets and work with farmers who know the economics of maize production all
too well. As changes begin to occur, the most critical success factor is that the plan allows
for learning and that it is exible enough to be adjusted as understanding progresses.
As localized systems, parts of value chains, or changes in geographic regions are better
understood, the learning from those successes can be applied at greater scale. Starting
with less comprehensive and prescribed plans and demonstrating success with more
exible learning models can also attract champions, additional talent, and more investment
that can be used in scaling up.
This is normal change management in the private sector. For example, a transformation of
50 manufacturing plants may start with three plants and scales up from there. But in
public-sector transformations, the need for equity across the population often leads to
single-solution national programs, such as untargeted fertilizer subsidies. These broad
interventions often do not succeed, because stakeholders have not taken the time to learn
the nuances of where and how best to implement them.
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10/2/2020 Successful agricultural transformations: Six core elements of planning and delivery | McKinsey
Approaching transformations with an investor mind-set is critical to the success of the
process. In kick-starting agricultural transformations, coordination among government,
donors, and civil society is critical, but it is equally important from the start to plan for
private-sector engagement. Without this, the transformation may proceed more slowly,
stall, or not reach scale.
Agricultural transformation plans with an investor mind-set include three strategic
planning components. First, the plan identi es public investments that complement likely
private-sector investment. These are investments in areas where returns are low and/or
risks are high. They can include typical public goods (such as rural advisory services or
training) as well as investments in commodities or geographies that are important to
transformation but unlikely to garner private investment. Second, a good agricultural
transformation plan identi es public investments designed to catalyze additional private-
sector engagement. This may be, for example, through risk guarantees, cost sharing,
innovative public–private partnerships, targeted subsidies, or provision of infrastructure
conditional on private investment. Last, agricultural transformation plans with an investor
mind-set anticipate changes in the enabling environment that will be necessary as the
transformation progresses to support increasing private-sector engagement. These
policies, laws, and regulations are usually across multiple sectors in addition to agriculture,
including banking, trade, and land policies.
Progress on enabling policies
Agricultural transformation is more than changes in farming practices. It is about
catalyzing transformation of a country’s rural economy. As such, more than agricultural
trade and subsidy policies are in play. For example, laws and regulations that in uence
banking, labor, infrastructure, land ownership and access, access to water,
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Land policy is often cited as a pivotal factor in determining whether a country’s agricultural
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to widespread poverty reduction). Land policy is a good illustration of how critical it is for
policies to be dynamic—changing over time to prevent transformations from stalling. For
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of an agricultural
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as a way of in uencing farmers’ investment in their production. However, rental markets
may soon become important as some farmers move out of agriculture into other jobs and
need income from their land.
Finally, e ective policy making for agricultural transformation needs to become more
evidence-based over time. Policy makers should invest in making use of existing data and
analytics to comparatively assess the costs and likely outcomes of di erent potential
transformation programs. Policy makers also need to use data and analytics to set
reasonable targets and redirect programs where outcomes are not meeting targets.
Evidence-based policy making builds better plans and integrates accountability into the
systems responsible for implementing the policies.
How to do it
The rst part of this article focused on best practices for what to do in a successful
agricultural transformation and what should be included in a high-quality national
agricultural plan. The delivery elements of transformation, however, are often even more
neglected and represent a big opportunity to increase success rates. Even in the private
sector, McKinsey research shows that 65 percent of transformations that aim to improve
the performance of large companies fail to accomplish their goals. The most important
factor that distinguishes successful transformations is attention to the soft side—the “how
to do it” part.
Willingness to change
The most important factor in the soft side is the willingness of governments, donors,
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a better outcome. Sometimes a new prime minister or agricultural minister arrives
with a vision to transform the sector, and the momentum of good leadership spurs
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progress. Other times, change readiness can be encouraged through incentives (for
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example, compacts through the Millennium Challenge Corporation or contingent private-
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sector investment commitments), through exposure (for example, World Economic Forum
regional meetings or rankings in internationally accepted development indices), or by
showing a way forward that convinces key stakeholders.
However it occurs, commitment from the highest levels of government is needed before
and during the development of agricultural transformation plans. Both political and
nancial capital are at stake for public-sector investors, and securing high-level
commitment will ensure the development process produces more clearly de ned practical
plans that have a higher likelihood of being implemented.
Sometimes, though, a country is just not ready for change, either because it is undergoing
con ict or because the wider political system itself is not ready to work on agricultural
transformation.
Key stakeholders should make a big e ort to ensure and maintain a country’s change
readiness. But there should be a clear-eyed evaluation—if change readiness really is not
present and there is no good prospect for movement, then it is best to stop wasting
resources. In the meantime, many steps can be taken to improve the national welfare, but
this does not have to be approached with a transformation mentality.
Leadership alignment
For a transformation to succeed, there must be a common understanding of the plan,
stakeholder roles, and approach to management of the process. At the highest level, key
government ministries, the local and international private sectors, and donors must be
aligned. Ethiopia and Morocco both invested more than a year of intense study and
stakeholder engagement to craft their agricultural transformation plans. Nigeria undertook
a process of deeply engaging 24 bank CEOs and key government leaders in developing its
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understanding, but getting there requires commitment from leaders across
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The alignment must also extend from the national to local level, into provinces and
districts, and across multiple ministries. Transformation planning, leadership alignment,
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and budget coherency that is developed at the national level, and only inthe ministry of
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10/2/2020 Successful agricultural transformations: Six core elements of planning and delivery | McKinsey
agriculture, will fail when the interventions interact with more local governments or with
other enabling issues (for example, transportation, trade, or nance). In addition to
alignment between national and local decision makers, successful planning often includes
an appropriate decision-making mandate for lower governmental levels (for example,
states in Nigeria, provinces in Morocco, and districts in Ethiopia) and cross-ministerial
collaboration processes.
Leadership skill building
Most successful transformations can be traced to speci c single individuals who had an
extra-ordinary impact on the project. Often this is left to chance, but there is great upside
to a more systematic approach to supporting key leaders, from high-level government
o cials to frontline employees. In private-sector transformations, leadership training and
peer networks are made available, even when the goal is just a few million dollars of pro t
improvement. In large-scale public-sector transformations, where the goal is to improve
the lives of millions of people, the return on investment for leadership skill building is
tremendous.
A well-known principle in adult learning is that skill building works best when it is
connected to real work and practical problem solving. With this in mind, we believe there is
great value in the creation of an academy focused on building the next generation of
leaders in an agricultural transformation. Here, groups of 20 or so leaders responsible for
agricultural transformations in their countries jointly go through an 18-month leadership
journey using a “ eld and forum” approach. They would assemble every few months for
intense technical and leadership training, and then return to their roles at home, with
remote access to both expert support and a peer network. This approach costs relatively
little but produces better individual leaders and facilitates alignment in a country’s top
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Managing the transformation
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10/2/2020 Successful agricultural transformations: Six core elements of planning and delivery | McKinsey
An agricultural transformation is not just a planning exercise. It takes management over
time. Our experience suggests that creating a project management o ce (PMO) can
greatly increase the chances of carrying out a successful large-scale change program. A
PMO can concentrate talent, monitor implementation, act as a source of truth, and, in
general, help get things done. The o ce can apply accepted project management
technologies to break the transformation into discrete initiatives, each with speci c goals,
timing, and responsibility. A PMO is also charged with engaging relevant stakeholders
when problems arise.
There is a case for using existing structures such as ministries rather than creating a
temporary new organization. However, our experience shows that, depending on the
country, the positives of a PMO (improved coordination, management of progress toward
targets, increased ability to learn and adjust implementation over time) can greatly
outweigh the negatives (high transaction costs, the potential for added complexity in
political channels). Most large-scale transformations in the private sector use versions of
PMOs. Some countries with recent success in agricultural transformations are using PMOs
(including Ethiopia and Morocco).
There has been strong progress on country and state-level agricultural development plans
throughout the world, but we believe there are still large opportunities for improvement, as
described in the rst part of this article. The how-to elements of a transformation
described in the second part o er an even greater opportunity to accelerate agricultural
transformations. Our experience suggests that they are the biggest controllable factors
leading to successful conclusions. They are high-return-on-investment actions that can
make the “what to dos”—the larger investments in areas such as processing facilities,
roads, Sign
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Agricultural transformation is essential to the future well-being of developing nations and
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development. are hope
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articlethis topic. to the thinking about agricultural transformation and encourages
contributes
governments and other stakeholders to re ect on the steps they should take next.
1. Strategic plan for the transformation of agriculture in Rwanda: Phase
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III, Republic of Rwanda
Ministry of Agriculture and Animal Resources, July 2013, mineco n.gov.rw.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR(S)
Sara Boettiger is a senior advisor for the McKinsey Center for Agricultural
Transformation, Nicolas Denis is a partner in McKinsey’s Brussels o ce , and
Sunil Sanghvi is a senior partner in the Chicago o ce .
The authors wish to thank Shane Bryan, David Fiocco, Lutz Goedde, Jarkko
Havas, Kartik Jayaram, Omid Kassiri, Gillian Pais, Jens Riese, Clémentine
Schouteden, and Maurits Waardenburg for their contributions to this article.
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