AI For Traders Ebook
AI For Traders Ebook
Traveling all the way back to the 20th century, we can see the The reality of AI is that it betters our lives in ways we see and
ultimate vision of artificial intelligence: HAL in 2001-A Space ways we do not. The way AI does and will do the above and
Odyssey. The portrait painted in that tale is not a pretty one. more is it processes massive amounts of data, analyzes that
HAL goes rogue because “he” perceives the astronauts on data much faster than any human can, and then it
Discovery 1 as a threat to the mission. The computer extrapolates reliable conclusions that, simply, make things
becomes deadly. Naturally, after the blockbuster success of work accurately.
that movie in 1968, the cultural context for artificial
intelligence (AI) was negative. People imagined a future with At a high level, AI understands historical data and applies
sentient machines that could kill. The Terminator franchise what is learned to current contexts in order to make
only furthered that unrealistic and frightening vision. predictions. Highly accurate predictions. This technology has
the potential to make every trader “smarter.”
We have come a long way since HAL in 1968 and “I’ll be back”
in 1984 with our understanding of AI. Today, the reality of AI Today, traders are faced with an information overload. Books,
has nothing to do with sentient machines threatening gurus, newsletters – all claiming to have the secret to
humans. In fact, it is quite the opposite. success. Political fear and uncertainty make it near
impossible for traders to act with confidence, which lessens
Artificial Intelligence (AI) is an analytical tool that runs through the chance of success. Until now, however, AI has been largely
the course of our day, from Google searches for the best price out of reach for individuals.
on travelto the medical benefits we receive from NASA
missions to Mars. And coming soon to a neighborhood near This eBook will enlighten you to the influence of AI in our lives,
you, “thoughtful” homes will save massive amounts of energy generally. Specifically, if you are actively managing your
and self-driving cars will take you to work and your kids to money, it will light a path to envisioning a better financial
school. AI is here now, and its influence is growing faster than future, an approach to achieving your financial goals. But first,
most people imagine. let’s get a clearer understanding of AI and its component
features, as they relate to market analysis for trading.
What AI, machine learning, deep learning and other important terminology mean.
Artificial Intelligence (AI) is the fundamental basis of computers learning to think like humans. The
idea is that software can act like our brain, can actually learn from experience. The way AI learns is
through “crunching” data, lots of data, and then extrapolating conclusions it can then apply in future
situations.
Neural networks, a biological metaphor for the idea that AI is a thinking machine, that, like the brain,
its “thoughts” travel along neural pathways. In reality, neural networks are code, a defined
programming scheme that allows computers to learn from data.
Deep learning, a powerful set of complex algorithms that direct neural networks to find patterns
within large data sets and then draw conclusions.
Algorithms are a process or, more clearly, a set of rules guiding calculations or other
problem-solving processes.
Predictive Analytics is a branch of advanced analytics that is used to make predictions about
unknown future events based on patterns in historical data.
Single market analysis is the analysis of a specific market without consideration of the influences
other markets have on that single market.
Intermarket analysis is the analysis of a specific market taking into consideration influences other
markets have on that single market.
In the most basic sense, AI is about solving problems. Not 2 + 2 = 4. No, humans have
managed to solve these problems with our innate intelligence and the magical ability to
do more than one thing at a time. AI, in the broadest sense, is about solving functional
problems in systems that allow humans to experience the full potential of a world
rapidly transforming into a digital reality.
Simply, AI solves IoT issues involved with having your lights dim, your favorite
music start playing, and your oven preheating for baking lasagna just as you finish
your day. It can make sure your coffee starts brewing when you actually wake up,
not at a preset time. And, this cannot happen fast enough, it will allow your car to
change a red light to green when you are the only one at the intersection.
For the past hundred years or so, short-term traders and longer-term investors bought and sold stocks, bonds and commodities
listed on exchanges in their own home country.
Traders and investors analyzed financial markets using either ‘fundamental’ or ‘technical’ analysis. Although they look at the
markets from two different perspectives, both approaches attempt to determine the trend direction of specific primary markets
and anticipate changes in trend direction, so traders or investors can make decisions about where to put their risk capital with
the expectation of realizing a profit if their trend forecasts and timing prove to be correct.
Unlike fundamental analysis which is used to make trading decisions on the basis of underlying economic and financial metrics
affecting a particular market, the premise behind technical analysis is that all of the internal and external factors that are
thought to affect a specific market at any given point in time are already reflected in that market’s price.
In other words, a market’s current price reflects the rational collective judgment of all market participants, each with their own
information on, and insight into, that market and what they expect the market trend direction is likely to be in the future.
Over the past fifty years or longer, and well before personal computers and trading software came on the scene, a host of
mathematically-derived technical indicators, such as moving averages that smooth out the bar-to-bar fluctuations in price, were
created to offer a more quantitative and less subjective way to analyze each market’s trend direction strength or weakness and
help traders and investors determine where to place entry and exit points and set limit orders or trailing stops. These indicators
typically only look at each individual market in isolation (known as single-market analysis) using past historical data as the sole
basis for computing the values of these indicators.
Let’s take a look at a few and their limitations to uncover why traders need to rely on AI…
Crossovers of the two lines themselves can be used to identify trading opportunities. When the MACD line crosses below the
trigger line, it’s a bearish indication; when the MACD line crosses above the trigger line, it’s a bullish indication. The MACD line
crossing above or below a zero line indicates the strength or weakness of a market and can be used to trigger a trading signal.
The relationship of the MACD line to the trigger line can also be used to generate trading signals. If the MACD line pulls away
from the trigger line dramatically, it indicates the market may be becoming overbought or oversold after a strong move and is
likely due for a correction that will bring the two lines back into a more normal historical relationship.
One of the applications of MACD, as with a number of other technical indicators, is to identify divergence between actual prices
and the indicator itself. If the MACD turns positive and makes higher lows while prices are still moving lower, this bullish
divergence could be a buy signal as MACD detects strength that is not yet obvious by looking only at the price chart. If the
MACD makes lower highs while prices are reaching new highs, this bearish divergence suggests possible weakness and a
potential sell signal in the making. Given its moving average foundation, MACD is also considered a lagging indicator. It tends to
work best in markets that make broad trending moves but doesn’t perform as well under choppy, volatile trading conditions.
Momentum oscillators show how current prices compare to previous prices and provide clues about overbought or oversold
conditions that suggest a possible impending change in trend direction. These oscillators can also indicate when a price move
may be running out of steam or is likely to make a reversal.
These indicators are more reliable in non-trending markets when prices move up and down with no clear trend direction.
However, in trending markets, these indicators may give a buy or sell signal soon after the change in trend direction and then
just remain stuck on that signal as long as the trend continues.
As a result, TSI more closely aligns with price highs and lows in defining a market trend and isn’t as erratic as many other
indicators. Buy or sell signals occur when the TSI crosses above or below the TSI signal line. TSI signals can be especially
useful in identifying divergence between two related markets such as comparing two stock indexes to each other.
Other types of single-market technical indicators highlight specific price or time targets. These include Elliott Wave, which
features a five-wave sequence projecting the size and duration of market moves to arrive at specific price targets; Fibonacci
levels, which provide retracement and extension targets based on a mathematical series of numbers and ratios; and cycles or
seasonals, which identify the repetitive price movements of a market and project the timing of price highs or lows but not
necessarily the amplitude of a move.
For decades, even before the advent of personal computers Even today, most traders continue to focus their analysis
and the emergence of a trading software industry, traders solely on each individual market in isolation, performing
and market technicians have made various modifications to single-market analysis using these trend-following, lagging
these types of technical indicators in an effort to reduce the indicators, an approach that has been the mainstay of
lag effect and make them more responsive to current market technical analysis since before the introduction of personal
conditions. But, so far these efforts have been futile. For computers and trading software.
example, the shorter the length of a moving average, the
more sensitive it will be to short-term price fluctuations, Yet, despite their serious and well-documented limitations,
meaning less lag than longer moving averages. But, the price single market chart pattern analysis and trend-following,
you pay is less smoothing or filtering out of ‘noise’ in the raw lagging technical indicators are still widely relied upon by
data with a greater chance of getting whipsawed. traders and investors to identify trends and determine when
These trend-following, lagging, single-market indicators changes in trend direction might occur. The subjective
often generate false or premature trading signals that can eye-balling of price charts to find patterns thought to have
wipe out your trading account’s capital with whipsaw losses. predictive value as well as the lag effect inherent with
A moving average, for example, may provide several trend-following technical indicators has presented one of the
crossover signals that get you in and out of positions several biggest challenges that technical analysts and traders have
times at losses before giving you a valid signal at the been trying to overcome for decades. What is needed,
beginning of what may, if fact, become a longer-term trend. though, are truly predictive indicators that actually lead
rather than lag the markets and which also take into
While the global financial markets offer unprecedented consideration the impact of related markets.
opportunities for traders and investors to build and protect
Today, AI is a pervasive force in the trading and investment world. Money managers, stock brokers, mutual funds, hedge funds,
professional advisors, day traders, and swing traders all are subject to the reality that AI underlies the daily movement of money
and markets around the globe. Everyone is looking for an edge and software that utilizes AI is that edge. Mind you, this is not a
new phenomenon.
The application of software technology in optimizing market trading tools has been around since the early 1980s. Lou
Mendelsohn, an early pioneer in trading software, picked up on the evolutionary trend creating the first commercially available
strategy backtesting and optimization trading software for personal computers, ProfitTaker Futures Trading Software. By the
mid-1980s software-driven, technical analysis had become the standard for both stock and futures traders. Mendelsohn’s early
adoption of software for trading led to the next generation of his “intelligent” trading software in the early 1990s that had two
key characteristics – intermarket analysis and neural networks.
Trading is a highly competitive world defined by the reality that winning means someone must lose. Given the nature of greed,
“
you can bet everyone trading in the market is doing everything he or she can to gain an edge. Artificial Intelligence trading
expert, Lane Mendelsohn, says "Artificial Intelligence is no longer the future; it is the present. Traders looking for real
success in the markets need to incorporate this technology if they want to gain an edge.
”
AI-based software creates a larger pool of viable plays from which you can select your trades. Applying filters based on your
understanding of the overall market movement and the movement in a specific market segment (say energy) allows you to
“whittle” down a volume of potential trades to the most viable plays, again, based on your market perspective.
Risk reduction is a hallmark of successful traders. AI-based software reduces the risk, as it clearly defines market direction,
which then gives you the opportunity to filter through those trades to find the best of the best, the trades with the highest
probability of success.
As stated, trading is a competitive world, so every decision you make is crucial to success. And since you can’t win on every
trade, the goal is to have a win/loss ratio that is skewed in your favor. One way to get that win/loss ratio up there is to find
AI-based analytical software that can deliver a high probability of success.
Meet Vantagepoint Software. This incredibly powerful, AI-based program utilizes neural networks and intermarket analysis to
predict short-term market movement. This predictive software has been delivering success to traders since 1991, a proven
track record that speaks for itself. Over that span of time, various independent tests have shown Vantagepoint to produce up to
an 86% accuracy rate in its predictive analysis.
• Alerts on whether the market is expected to make a top or bottom over the next 48-hours.
• A suite of other predictive leading indicators and technical tools that identify optimal entries and exits.
Remember the IoT, the Internet of Things? AI is the essential piece that makes it all work.
As electric cars become more powerful, electrical demands for charging at home will rise. Your home, networked on an
AI-based system will, over time, collect data from all your devices utilizing electricity. It will then factor in your use of
those devices at whatever times you use them, to whatever degree you use them. It will discern your patterns of
behavior around your devices, so when you plug in your car, and it draws 440 volts of power, the AI in your network
will quickly predict your power usage needs and then adjust to accommodate the power draw. Now, here is
the beautiful thing. Based on your patterns of behavior relative to electrical usage, your home will
flawlessly operate without interruption as your network adjusts based on what it has learned about
your behaviors. Simply, it will accurately predict the direction of short-term power needs to have
the power available when needed for any device when it is utilized.
VP collects data on some 25 correlated markets, analyzes the patterns within those
markets relative to the particular market you are viewing, along with the patterns
in your chosen market, and then it accurately predicts the direction of short-term
movement in that market. Only AI can pull this off with great accuracy.
Ultimately, what we all want is to live a good life, to have enough money to take care of our families, to take good vacations, to
pay for college educations, to live in a beautiful home, and to live well when we stop working. To achieve this, we need to be
successful with managing our own financial futures. We need to be smart with our money. Being an intelligent trader is one way
to achieve your financial vision, whatever that might be.
AI is evolving to positively affect our daily lives in everything we do. The ultimate aim of this technology is to simplify and
improve the quality of our lives. To do this, it must learn who we are, how we live moment to moment, how we behave day in
and day out. As AI learns about us, it will learn what we like, when we like it, and how much of “it” we want in any given moment.
Traders have an incredibly opportunity to take advantage of what AI offers in your trading life. There is nothing futuristic or
unrealistic about the power of AI to transform your trading into a successful venture that will bring you the things you want in
life for you and your family.
Just as AI is transforming our daily lives, it has already transformed predicting market movement. What once was inaccurate
hand-plotted charts for a specific market created solely in the context of that single market is now AI analyzing dozens of cor-
related markets to arrive at an accurate market-direction prediction for a specific market.
Since the introduction of its first trading software in 1983, Vantagepoint ai has grown into a
multi-million dollar, Inc. 500, trading software company with customers in more than 120 countries.
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