Theory of Decisions
Task 1 – Pre knowledge
Presented by:
Jhin Albert Alfonso S
Presented to:
Deyanira Perez Bravo
Group:
212066_51
National Open and Distance University "UNAD"
School of Basic Sciences, Technology and Engineering
January 2021
1
Exercise 1. Probabilities of a given event:
Suppose you have three dice which are not altered, this assumes fair play
and the odds of any one of their heads coming out are equal. When rolling
the three dice, you must determine that:
1. Exit number 6 on all dice.
There is only one way to roll six of all (6,6,6), and if we consider that there are
different ways that three dice can roll, then
2. The sum of the three dice adds up to 7.
Here are the ways the dice can fall, where the sum of the points is seven:
and with this list, we realize that there are 15 different ways for the sum to be
7, then the probability sought is
2
Exercise 2. Graphic solution of equations:
Using the algebraic graphical method, determine the cut-off point and solution
that satisfies the following systems of equations:
1. Y = -2X + 7
2. Y = -3X + 5
For values of 1 and 0 of the variable x in each of the equations. That is,
replacing in each equation first if x takes value of 1 and if it takes the value of
zero to graph its lines.
{YY=−2 x+ 7
=3 x +5
Y= -2x + 7
Y= -2 (0) + 7
Y= 0 + 7 = 7
Y= -2 (1) + 7
Y= -2 + 7 =5
Y= -2 (2) + 7
Y= -4 + 7 =3
X 0 1 2
Y 7 5 3
Y= 3x + 5
Y= 3 (0) + 5
Y= 0 + 5 = 5
Y= 3 (1) + 7
Y= 3 + 5=8
Y= 3 (2) + 7
Y= 6 + 5 =11
X 0 1 2
Y 5 8 11
3
Exercise 3. Matrix operations:
The Markov chains use probabilities of previous states, from there that the
matrix multiplication is very important to solve this type of problems. Given
the following matrices of size (n * m) or (m * m) solve the product of them.
In the previous exercises, solve the matrix operation (A * B)
1.
1x3 3x3 1x3
3x3
A*B = 0.3 * 0.4 + 0.2 * 0.3 + 0.5 * 0.3 = 0.12 + 0.06 + 0.15 = 0.33
0.3 * 0.1 + 0.2 * 0.5 + 0.5 * 0.4 = 0.03 + 0.1 + 0.2 = 0.33
0.3 * 0.3 + 0.2 * 0.2 + 0.5 * 0.5 = 0.09 + 0.04 + 0.25 = 0.38
A∗B=[ 0.33 0.33 0.38 ]
4
3x3 3x3 3x3
3x3
A*B = 1.1 = 0.3 * 0.3 + 0.2 * 0.1 + 0.2 * 0.6 = 0.09 + 0.02 + 0.12 = 0.23
1.2 = 0.3 * 0.5 + 0.2 * 0.2 + 0.2 * 0.3 = 0.15 + 0.04 + 0.06 = 0.25
1.3 = 0.3 * 0.2 + 0.2 * 0.3 + 0.2 * 0.5 = 0.06 + 0.04 + 0.1 = 0.2
2.1 = 0.3 * 0.3 + 0.4 * 0.1 + 0.7 * 0.6 = 0.09 + 0.04 + 0.42 = 0.55
2.2 = 0.3 * 0.5 + 0.4 * 0.2 + 0.7 * 0.3 = 0.15 + 0.08 + 0.21 = 0.44
2.3 = 0.3 * 0.2 + 0.4 * 0.3 + 0.7 * 0.5 = 0.06 + 0.12 + 0.35 = 0.53
3.1 = 0.4 * 0.3 + 0.4 * 0.1 + 0.1 * 0.6 = 0.12 + 0.04 + 0.06 = 0.22
3.2 = 0.4 * 0.5 + 0.4 * 0.2 + 0.1 * 0.3 = 0.2 + 0.08 + 0.03 = 0.31
3.3 = 0.4 * 0.2 + 0.4 * 0.3 + 0.1 * 0.5 = 0.08 + 0.12 + 0.05 = 0.25
0.23 0.25 0.2
[
A∗B= 0.55 0.44 0.53
0.22 0.310.25 ]
5
Bibliography
Sharma, J. (2016). Operations Research: Theory and
Applications. (pp. 650-665), New Delhi: Laxmi Publications
Pvt Ltd, v. Sixth edition. Retrieved
from http://bibliotecavirtual.unad.edu.co/login?
url=http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?
direct=true&db=nlebk&AN=1950625&lang=es&site=eds-
live&scope=site&ebv=EB&ppid=pp_C
Piunovskiy, A. (2012). Examples In Markov Decision
Processes: Singapore: Imperial College Press Optimization
Series (pp. 111-127). Retrieved
from http://bibliotecavirtual.unad.edu.co:2051/login.aspx?
direct=true&db=nlebk&AN=545467&lang=es&site=eds-live
Kelly, A. (2003). Decision Making Using Game Theory: An
Introduction for Managers: Camdridge, UK: Cambridge
University Press Editorial (pp. 28-51). Retrieved
from http://bibliotecavirtual.unad.edu.co:2051/login.aspx?
direct=true&db=nlebk&AN=120445&lang=es&site=eds-live
https://youtu.be/3AISVjblBNg
https://youtu.be/eRBuGozq6Us
