Chapter 24 Notes

Probability
Outcomes – I can…

1. Define vocabulary words related to probability

2. Calculate an experimental probability
3. Identify the sample space of a given event
4. Calculate the theoretical probability for a given simple event
5. Calculate the theoretical probability for complimentary event
6. Use a grid/tree diagram/table to calculate the probability for a given event
7. Explain the difference between independent, dependent, and mutually exclusive events
8. Calculate the probability for independent events
9. Calculate the probability for dependent events
10. Calculate the probability for events with and without replacement
11. Represent different sets using a Venn diagram
12. Calculate the probability for mutually exclusive events
13. Calculate the probability for disjoint events
14. Calculate the conditional probability for dependent events
15. Calculate the probability for dependent events given a conditional probability
16. Calculate the probability for dependent events using permutations and combinations
17. Calculate the probability for dependent events using Bayes Theorem

I. 24A – Experimental Probability

a. Probability – The of an event happening

i. Probability theory is applied/used in physical and biological sciences, economics, politics, sports,
life insurance, quality control, production planning, and many other areas.

ii. Probabilities are measured on a scale of 0 to 1 or 0% to 100%.

iii. Probabilities can be calculate from or from a .

b. Experimental Probability of event A

i. 𝑃(𝐴) =

1. Experimental probability =

II. 24B – Sample Space

a. A sample space U is the set of of an experiment.

i. Also referred to as the universal set U.

 b. Representing Sample Spaces
i.
ii.
iii.
iv.
v.

c. Example – What is the sample space for flipping 3 coins? Rolling 2 dice?

III. 24C – Theoretical Probability

# 𝑜𝑓 𝑚𝑒𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟𝑠 𝑜𝑓 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝐴
a. 𝑃(𝐴) = 𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 # 𝑜𝑓 𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠 =

i.

b. Complementary Events

i. Two events are complementary if one of the events must occur.

ii. If A is an event, then its complementary event is

iii.

1. 𝑃(𝐴′ ) = 1 − 𝑃(𝐴)

c. OR  Called a , we then what they have in common

i. 𝑃(𝐴 or 𝐵) = = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) − 𝑃(𝐴 and 𝐵) =

ii. With “or” events, you need to watch for ! In the formula
𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵), the “ ” accounts for the double counting.
 d. Examples
i. A ticket is randomly selected from a basket containing 3 green, 4 yellow, and 5 blue tickets.
Determine the probability of getting:
1. A green ticket 3. An orange ticket
2. A green or yellow ticket 4. A green, yellow, or blue ticket.

ii. A card is randomly drawn from a standard deck of cards. What is the probability of getting:
1. A black card?
2. A red king?
3. Not a queen?
4. A king or a heart?
5. A diamond or a face card?

IV. 24D – Tables of Outcomes

a. Tables that compare two categorical variables which usually result from a survey.

b. Example – People exiting a new ride at a theme park were asked whether they liked or disliked the ride.
The results are shown in the table alongside.
Child Adult
Liked the ride 55 28
Disliked the ride 17 30

Use this table to estimate the probability that a randomly selected person who went on the ride:
i. Liked the ride
ii. Is a child and disliked the ride
iii. Is an adult or disliked the ride
iv. Liked the ride, given that he or she is a child
v. Is an adult, given that he or she disliked the ride

c. “Given that” is important in probability. It will usually reduce the sample space as we have a given
condition about the population.
V. 24E – Compound Events

a. Events – Events where the probability of one is not affected by the probability of
the other.
i. EX: Drawing two cards from the deck but replacing the first card before drawing the second.
ii. 𝑃(𝐴 AND 𝐵) = given A and B are independent events.

b. Events: Events where the probability of one IS affected by the probability of the other.
i. EX: Drawing two cards from the deck but NOT replacing the first card before drawing the
second.
ii. 𝑃(𝐴 THEN 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) × 𝑃(𝐵 𝑔iven that 𝐴 has occurred) given that A and B are dependent
events.

c. Example – Two cards are drawn simultaneously. What is the probability of getting:
1. A king and a 9? 2. An ace and a heart?

VI. 24F – Tree Diagrams

a. Can be used to illustrate sample spaces if the possible outcomes are not too numerous.

3
b. Consider two archers firing simultaneously at a target. Li has probability of of hitting a target and Yuka
4
4
has probability of 5.

Notice:
i. The probabilities for hitting and missing are marked on the branches.
ii. There are four alternative branches, each showing a particular outcome.
iii. All outcomes are represented.
iv. The probability of each outcome is obtained by multiplying the probabilities along its branch.
 c. Examples
i. Carly is having bad luck. Her car will only start 80% of the time and her motorbike only 60% of
the time.
1. What is the probability 2. What is the probability that Carly can
that both will start? only use her car?

ii. Two vases have roses. The first vase has 2 white and 4 red roses while the second has 4 red and
3 white roses. You randomly pick a vase and select a rose. What is the probability it was red?

VII. 24G – Sampling with and Without Replacement

a. Sampling – Selecting an object from a large group at random and inspecting it for particular features.

i. With Replacement – If the object is put back in the group before an object is chosen again.
ii. Without Replacement – If the object is put to one side.

1. Note: Drawing simultaneously is the same as sampling replacement.

 b. Examples
i. A box contains 4 red balls and 2 yellow balls. Two balls are drawn at random. What is the
probability of drawing a red and then a yellow ball if you replace the ball after the first draw?
What if you do not replace it?

ii. A bag contains 5 red and 3 blue marbles. Two marbles are draw simultaneously. What is the
probability that at least one is red?

VIII. 24H – Sets and Venn Diagrams

a. A useful way of representing the events in a sample space.

i. Usually consist of:

1. Rectangle – Represents the complete

2. – Within the rectangle which represents particular events.

b. If 𝑈 = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7} and 𝐴 = {2, 4, 6} then A’ =

i. 𝑥𝜖𝐴 reads

ii. 𝑛(𝐴) reads

c. Set Notation

d. Examples
i. Let A and B be independent events such that 𝑃(𝐴) = 0.3 and 𝑃(𝐵) = 0.8.
1. Find 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) 2. Find 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵)

3. Are A and B mutually exclusive? Justify your answer.

ii. If 𝑃(𝐴) = 0.4, 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 0.9, and 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 0.1, find 𝑃(𝐵).

iii. If 𝑃(𝐴) = 0.6, 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 0.7, and 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 0.3, find:

1. 𝑃(𝐵) 2. 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵′ )
 iv. In a class of 30 students, 19 study physics, 17 study chemistry and 15 study both. Calculate the
probability that a randomly selected student studies:
1. Both subjects
2. At least one of the subjects
3. Physics but not chemistry
4. Exactly one of the subjects
5. Neither subject

IX. 24I – Laws of Probability

a. Addition Law

i. 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) =

b. Mutually Exclusive or Disjoint Events

i. 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) =

c. Conditional Probability
i. Probability of an event occurring another event has definitely occurred.

1. Look for in the question

2. 𝑃(𝐴|𝐵) = or

d. Examples
i. In a class of 25 students, 14 like pizza and 16 like lasagna. One student likes neither and 6 like
both. One student is randomly selected. What is the probability this student likes pizza given
that they like lasagna?
 ii. Box 1 has 3 white beads and 4 blue beads. Box 2 has 2 white beads and 3 blue beads. A box is
chosen at random and then a bead is selected. What is the probability the bead came from box
2 given that it was blue?

iii. You really want to be goalkeeper at your next soccer game. If Coach Sam is there, there is a 50%
chance he will let you goal keep. If Coach Alex is there, there is a 30% chance. Coach Sam
coaches 60% of the games. What is the probability Coach Sam is there today given that you will
goal keep?

X. 24J – Independent Events

a. Events where the occurrence of each one of them does not affect the probability that the other occurs.

i. 𝑃(𝐴|𝐵) = =

ii. A and B are independent events

2 1 1
iii. Suppose 𝑃(𝐴) = 5 , 𝑃(𝐵|𝐴) = 3 and 𝑃(𝐵|𝐴′ ) = 4. Find:
1. 𝑃(𝐵) 2. 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵′ )
XI. 24K – Probabilities Using Permutations and Combinations

a. Permutations – Involve the of objects or things

b. Combinations – Involve such as committees or teams.

c. Examples
i. A squad of 13 players includes 4 brothers. A team of 7 is randomly selected by drawing names
from a hat. Determine the probability that the team contains:
1. All the brothers 2. At least two of the brothers

ii. The letters in the word MONKEY are rearranged. What is the probability of the MN staying
together?

iii. 5 boys sit at random on 5 seats in a row. Determine the probability that the two friends Keong
and James sit:
1. At the ends of the row 2. Together

iv. In New Mexico, 51% of adults are male; 9.5% of males smoke cigars whereas 1.7% of females
smoke cigars. If a randomly chosen adult is smoking a cigar, calculate the probability that it is
male.
 v. In Thompsontown, 80% of the taxis are green with the rest being yellow. In an accident
involving a taxi, a witness claims the taxi was yellow. Knowing that witnesses are correct only
75% of the time, what is the probability that the cab was indeed yellow?

XII. 24L – Bayes’ Theorem

a. Bayes Theorem describes the probability of an event based on conditions that might be related to the
event.

i. For example, if a particular type of cancer is related to age, we can use a person’s age to
determine the probability that they will get this type of cancer.

𝑃(𝐵|𝐴)𝑃(𝐴)
ii. 𝑃(𝐴|𝐵) = where 𝑃(𝐵) =
𝑃(𝐵)

b. Example – A can contains 4 blue and 2 green marbles. One marble is randomly drawn from the can
without replacement and its color is noted. A second marble is then drawn. Find the probability that:
i. The second marble is blue
ii. The first marble was green given that the second marble is blue.