Africa Automotive Forum
Summary Report
September 2020
A warm welcome to the AAAM Africa Automotive Forum summary.
We believe that Africa has the potential to become the world’s next powerhouse in the automotive industry. The
objective of the AAAM Africa Automotive Forum was to facilitate the engagement and understanding of how the
potential of the auto industry in Africa can be unlocked. Enabling Policy by government, Regional Value Chains and
Driving Affordability and Mobility Solutions were unpacked by the speakers as we believe that these topics are the most
important aspects to industrialising and growing the auto sector in Africa.
My take outs from these Forums were:
• The Pan African Auto Pact vision won’t happen by chance: this requires courageous leadership that is willing to
collaborate, in both the public and private sector
• We need countries, regions and the continent to collaborate in support of sound economics that are beneficial to all
participants; central to this collaboration is the AfCFTA Secretariat
• The industry on the continent needs to be globally competitive; this requires scale (demand) which will be enabled
by driving affordability (this includes affordable vehicle finance), safe 2nd hand cars that were assembled on the
continent and an integrated market
• Detailed research needs to take place to understand the sustainable competitive advantage of African countries.
Furthermore, we need to develop the manufacturing capability and add the value in Africa (from raw materials to
final components)
• Regions will trade components and vehicles with ultimately the assembly of a specific vehicle type taking place in
only one location on the continent and in CKD form
• Competitiveness will enable exports from the continent
• A strong communication strategy is required to obtain stakeholder buy-in across Africa
Deloitte has professionally packaged summary reports of the three Forums for your ease of reference; we hope that
you can join us at the next AAAM Africa Auto Forum that will take place in Kigali in September 2021 as part of the
Afreximbank IATF event.
I wish to thank the Forum speakers, the Council participants along with our partners Afreximbank, VDA, JETRO and
AfrikaVerein for their support and participation in the Africa Auto Forum. A big thanks also goes to Martyn Davies and
the Deloitte team for making the event a reality and a success.
Dave Coffey
CEO
African Association of Automotive Manufacturers (AAAM)
Africa Automotive Forum| Summary Report 2
Contents
Enabling government by policy 5
Africa in 2020: Opening remarks 6
Regional value chains (RVCs) 10
Lessons learnt: Southeast Asian automotive industry 11
Strategies to unlock the economic benefits of RVCs in the automotive industry in Africa 13
Driving affordability and mobility solutions 17
Contacts 21
Endnotes 22
About the African Association of Automotive Manufacturers (AAAM)
Established in November 2015, AAAM focuses on the expansion and deepening of
the automotive industry across the African continent. It advises governments on
policies that aim to attract investors and unlock Africa’s economic potential.
Deloitte Africa Automotive Team
Deloitte’s Africa Automotive team assists automotive companies, including original
equipment manufacturers, suppliers, dealers, aftermarket and finance companies,
execute innovative ideas in exceptional ways. The team offers a global, integrated
approach combined with business and industry knowledge to help its clients excel
across the globe.
Africa Automotive Forum| Summary Report 3
Summary insights from the AAM Africa Automotive Forum. Themes: Enabling government by policy, Regional value chains
and Driving affordability and mobility solutions
Hosted by Deloitte Africa on behalf of AAAM in September 2020
Speakers included:
Dave Coffey, Chief Executive Officer, African Association of Automotive Manufacturers (AAAM)
Serge Kamuhinda, Director, Volkswagen Rwanda
Simphiwe Nghona, Group Head for Vehicle and Asset Finance (VAF), Standard Bank
Ridwan Olalere, Country Director for Nigeria, Uber
Gerhard Botha, General Manager, Toyota South Africa Motors
Yves Nono, Vice President – Mobility Solutions Sales, Region Africa, BOSCH Group
Kriengkrai Techakanont; Associate Professor, Faculty of Economics, Thammasat University, Thailand
Gainmore Zanamwe, Senior Manager: Trade Facilitation, Intra-African Trade Initiative; African Export–Import Bank
(Afreximbank)
Renai Moothilal, Executive Director, National Association of Automotive Component and Allied Manufacturers (NAACAM)
Dr. Markus Thill, President Region Africa, BOSCH Group
Keletsositse Olebile, Chief Executive Officer, Botswana Investment & Trade Centre (BITC)
Mike Mabasa, Chief Executive Officer, NAAMSA
H.E. Alan Kyerematen, Minister of Trade and Industry, Ghana
Dr Sahar Nasr, Professor Department of Economics, Business School of the American University in Cairo and Former Minister of
Investment and International Cooperation, Egypt
Mike Whitfield, AAAM President, Chairman of Nissan South Africa and Chairman and Managing Director of Nissan Motor Egypt
Masa Sugano, Deputy Executive Director - Africa Region, Japan External Trade Organization (JETRO)
Anthony Black, Professor of Economics at the University of Cape Town and the Director of the Research Unit, Policy Research
in International Services and Manufacturing (PRISM)
Sen. Gbemisola Saraki, Federal Minister of State for Transport, Nigeria
Philip Lucky, Head of Investment Marketing, Rwanda Development Board
Dr Martyn Davies, Managing Director: Emerging Markets and Africa; Africa Automotive Leader; Dean: Alchemy by Deloitte;
Deloitte Africa
Africa Automotive Forum| Summary Report 4
Enabling policy by
government
Welcome remarks A newly approved automotive industry
by the Government of Ghana is
With a relatively young population, yielding benefits: Ghana has already
growing middle class and rapid attracted investment by a global OEM
urbanisation, Africa has the potential (Volkswagen), with more to follow.2
to be an automotive industry
powerhouse. Africa has a low The automotive industry in Africa
motorisation rate of 42 cars per 1 000 plays a disproportionately small role in
individuals compared to a global manufacturing. The economic benefits
average of 182 vehicles per 1 000 of having a fully-fledged auto
individuals.1 The rate of motorisation manufacturing sector are numerous.
can be improved with the Although this would require advanced
implementation of well-coordinated, manufacturing technologies, the
effective automotive policies and industry creates much needed
ecosystems. employment and deepens value
chains.
There are many fragmented small
automotive production facilities on There are several points that
the continent due to ineffective governments and the private sector
automotive policies. Only two need to consider in formulating and
countries, Morocco and South Africa, implementing policies that could
have a fully-fledged automotive potentially unlock Africa’s automotive
industry. However their long-term sector and improve trade across the
reliance on the export of high-volume continent.
models to countries outside the
continent is questionable.
Africa Automotive Forum| Summary Report 5
Africa in 2020 Opening
Remarks
Key requirements for the automotive Policy making starts with The idea is not to mimic the South
sector engagement between the African African experience; instead OEMs plan
Union and OEMs to define the scope to look at each individual country and
Some minimum requirements for and framework of how countries align themselves with specific country
enabling a thriving automotive should work together. Governments and regional interests.
industry includes policy stability and can include themselves into the
a large market. regional matrix that would have been Regional trade integration to gain
set at the Africa Union level or market size
Policy stability/certainty
regional level.
Most African markets are not
The automotive sector requires long- individually large enough to sustain an
A top-down approach is expected to
term planning, therefore OEMs need automotive industry. However,
mitigate the risk of each country
to have confidence in the longevity integration into a regional or
developing its own strategy that may
of policies that are put in place. continental market could boost the
not be aligned to the overall strategy
Frequent changes to policies or size of the market to become viable to
of the region.
uncoordinated policies tend to support an automotive industry. OEMs
undermine investor confidence. How OEMs can engage in policy seek to see stronger regional
development integration that facilitates trade
In Africa, OEMs are currently
between countries.
encouraged by the positive South African-based OEMs have learnt
developments that are observed to collaborate and engage with OEMs are encouraged with the
from certain countries such as Egypt government and contribute to policy recently signed African Continental
and Ghana. Both countries are development. There has been a Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) agreement
deliberately developing strategic realisation by OEMs that successful that seeks to liberalise trade and
planning in a time horizon of 20-30 policy development cannot be harmonise doing business across the
years for the automotive industry. achieved by focusing on narrow continent.
individual commercial interests.
These countries also seem to
Therefore, OEMs have come together
comprehend that in order to have a
and aligned their interests with the
developed automotive ecosystem, a
country’s interests, which has turned
combination of environmental and
out to be a success. Various South
safety regulations, infrastructure
African OEMs have openly agreed that
policy, power policy and human
collaboration with each other and
resource policy is required.
with government on automotive
Successful developments are
policy had more impact than what
attributed to a collaborative
they would have achieved as a single
approach in policy making among
unit.
governments and OEMs, with the
facilitation of a technical partner As OEMs look to expand into Africa,
such as the AAAM. collaboration among OEMs is
essential.
Africa Automotive Forum| Summary Report 6
Evaluating a hub-and-spoke model to An alternative argument to the hub-
support free trade and distribute and-spoke model is that the
economic benefits amongst regional automotive industry tends to cluster
countries together, with component
manufacturers setting up operations
A hub-and-spoke model has been put around the assembly plant, resulting
forward to enable multiple countries in efficiency gains in production. For
in one region to share the benefits of example, the industry can practice a
having an automotive industry. Each just-in-time inventory management
African region should embed a hub- system that results in efficiency gains
and-spoke production model whereby and cost reduction.
vehicle components may be
manufactured in different countries Given the tendency of industries to
across that particular region (spokes), cluster together, it is argued that the
which are shipped into the assembling expectation that benefits can be
country of that region (hub). directly balanced among countries
within the automotive industry may
A hub-and-spoke model ensures that be unrealistic. One suggestion is that
there is industrial development in all countries should consider specialising
participating countries, and that in specific value-adding industries. For
associated economic benefits are example, South Africa could specialise
distributed among participating in automotive manufacturing, and
countries in the form of job creation in Madagascar could specialise in textile
each country and intra-regional trade. manufacturing. Through the exchange
With each country enjoying the of the products these countries
benefits of the hub-and-spoke model, produce, there could be benefits
it is envisioned that regional countries’ through trade at a manufacturing
interests are aligned and will not resist sector level as opposed to attempts to
opening their markets to import the balancing trade at an industry level.
assembled vehicles.
A good example of a thriving hub-and-
spoke model in the automotive sector
is that of the Association of the
Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)
regional organisation members.
Vehicle components are
manufactured in five of the member
countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, the
Philippines, Vietnam, and Singapore)3
and are shipped to Thailand where the
vehicles are assembled.
Africa Automotive Forum| Summary Report 7
Incentives Egypt has gone through structural Egypt is constrained from offering
adjustments to ensure its business incentives due to trade agreements
African countries have limited fiscal environment is conducive for with other countries such as the
resources to support and extend investors, including investors in the European Union, USA and Israel. Any
incentives to industries. However, automotive sector. Government incentives offered to industries will
there are many other levers to attract responded to investor concerns and have to be within the boundaries of
investors and OEMs. One of the most has made efforts to eliminate these agreements.
compelling incentives to invest is for bureaucracy and red tape which
governments to protect nascent hinders industry development. A view from Ghana
automotive industries from cheaper
used car imports, as these are highly The Egyptian government has invested It is crucial for countries to have
likely to impede large investments in in the modernisation of the maritime political will and commitment to
the sector. Research has shown that sector to allow better trade flows. develop their industries, including the
countries that have a relatively automotive industry. Often there is
developed automotive industry, such Egypt is strategically located, with political will but the commitment is
as in South Africa and Morocco, have access to the Mediterranean Sea and moderated by a number of
partially banned used car imports in geographically close to the European constraints, with many African
their markets. Ghana has recently put market. Therefore, a modern and countries still battling with other
in place a policy to limit used car efficient maritime sector is important fundamental social issues such as
imports and the policy is paying off, in supporting exports of vehicles inadequate health and education.
with VW recently having set up manufactured in Egypt. In addition, Therefore, their priorities are directed
operations in the country and several Egypt has established special more towards solving these issues
OEMs promising to set up operations. economic zones to attract automotive instead of developing certain
industry investment. industries. Although governments
As the continental market opens up need to support the automotive
through the AfCFTA, considerations Government has furthermore invested sector, OEMs also need to bring a
should be given to how the African in skills development. Leading certain level of commitment to
automotive sector handles the influx companies, including Uber, are setting complement government efforts.
of used vehicles. up centres of excellence to develop OEMs face various challenges ranging
relevant skills.4 from fear of failure in their investment
A view from Egypt plans to starting with Semi-Knocked
The Egyptian government has also
Down (SKD) vehicles before
Egypt has primarily focused on three developed incentive packages.
components manufacturing. This
pillars to support industries. These However, there is a lot of competition
raises the challenge of balancing
include improving the country’s for investment from both regional and
consumer interests and developing
business environment, developing international countries in the
the industry. Strict regulation on used
necessary infrastructure to support automotive industry. Furthermore,
vehicles needs to be complemented
industries, and developing the offering tax incentives is becoming
with substantial investment in order
necessary skills required. more challenging especially with the
to justify the trade-off to the
effects of COVID-19 where resources
population.
are highly constrained. In addition,
Africa Automotive Forum| Summary Report 8
Despite commitments from A view from Japan This capacity can be distributed across
government and OEMs, there is still a different countries. One example
need to develop a strong policy and As a large share of used vehicles are includes an investment by Japanese
develop skills as well as technical from Japan, Japanese automotive manufacturers to make car airbags
expertise. There needs to be a general brands are recognised brands that and car sheets for the export market
understanding of the trade-offs have also demonstrated their in Tunisia. Similarly, in ASEAN, car
between OEMs and government in reliability in Africa. Japan has shown handles are bought in Indonesia, and
order to achieve policy stability. There interest in maintaining this brand wipers come from the Philippines and
is a possibility for OEMs to enjoy all advantage and carrying it into the next feed into the assembly plants in
the incentives to enable the industry era of the automotive industry in Thailand.
to start - this can limit resistance at a Africa.
consumer level. However, these
In its engagement with Africa, Japan’s
incentives will be gradually eased for
advice to African countries is to follow
the industry to be embedded into the
an organic process as opposed to one
overall economy.
big solutions approach in the
The initial decision by VW to invest in automotive industry. Africa is
Ghana is based on the potential of the encouraged to leverage an existing
local market.5 Further to that, it is market of used cars and start by
evident that VW sees the potential to making replacement parts such as
grow into the regional West African spark plugs, brake pads and window
market, the African market and even wipers to meet the demands of
beyond the African market. This replacement for imported used
approach could help government deal vehicle parts as the first stage.
with market criticism and ensure
Africa ought to also engage and have
advocacy.
investment conversations with Tier 2
Government procurement policy plays and Tier 3 component manufacturers
a major role in ensuring government’s such as Denso (a Japanese automotive
commitment to the development of a manufacturer) to invest in African
local automotive industry. For countries. Various components such
example, in Ghana, government has as wipers or door handles, for
directed its procurement department example, are still very crucial in the
to give first preference to locally market. The manufacturing capacity
assembled vehicles. This procurement for car parts can be used to support
policy can be implemented to some both existing demand for imported
extent without contravening the used vehicle parts as well as the
World Trade Organisation’s regulation development of a fully-fledged
on international trade. automotive industry that produces
new vehicles.
Africa Automotive Forum| Summary Report 9
Regional Value Chains (RVCs)
Introduction6
The Africa Automotive Forum seeks to Collaboration in the region and
create dialogue as to how Africa’s understanding shared economic
potential can be unlocked by benefits are critical to regional
identifying and overcoming the alignment of who does what best,
challenges that the continent faces in while supporting the manufacturing of
becoming globally competitive. components in the assembly hub and
the reciprocal purchase of vehicles.
It is important to consider how regions Partnerships between countries have
and the continent can unite to been key in the development of
implement the required legislation and automotive industries across the
policies that will bring about investor world.
confidence and see the creation of
hundreds and thousands of jobs. These To further enhance scale, AAAM
policies will also drive new vehicle envisages that regions will trade
demand while ensuring safe motoring components and vehicles, with the
without major disruption to the assembly of a specific vehicle type
existing used car market. ultimately taking place in only one
location per region on the continent.
The RVCs forum aims to provide As revealed in one of the forums
insights and guidance on how to ‘Enabling Policy by Government’, the
unlock the economic benefits of achievement of this automotive
regional value chains. The importance development vision for Africa will not
of regional value chains is key for happen by chance. It requires
several reasons. Firstly, not every courageous leadership, and a
country can assemble vehicles as scale willingness to collaborate in both
is required in this competitive industry. public and private sectors.
The AAAM’s Pan-African Auto Pact
vision envisages the North, South, East
and West of Africa assembling higher
volumes in limited models supported
by surrounding economies or
countries sharing in the value chain -
depending on their comparative
advantage.
Africa Automotive Forum| Summary Report 10
Lessons learnt: Southeast
Asian automotive industry
Southeast Asian countries at a glance7 It stands as one of the largest and
most important free trade areas in the
world currently.
ASEAN has become a single market
and production base, and is
considered as a highly competitive
economic region, with fair economic
development and fully integrated into
the global community since 2015. In
2019 ASEAN produced 4.1 million cars,
however its peak was in 2013 when
there were 4.4 million cars produced.
Kriengkrai Techakanont; Associate At the time, Thailand launched a ‘first
Professor, Faculty of Economics, car buyer scheme’, where the
Thammasat University, Thailand government offered a subsidy to first
time car buyers, which increased
The Association of Southeast Asian domestic demand. In 2019, three main
Nations (ASEAN) is a regional grouping producers captured 90% of the total
that promotes economic, political, and production; namely Thailand, • The second stage was in the 1980s-
security cooperation among its ten Indonesia and Malaysia. Vietnam is 2000s. Governments and
members: Brunei, Cambodia, growing rapidly. Technocrats in ASEAN realised that
Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, deepening and supporting the
the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, industry was important. Countries
and Vietnam. ASEAN countries have a Key milestones of automotive industry pushed to regulate the industry by
total population of 655 million people development requiring companies to localise
and a combined gross domestic parts and components. The
product (GDP) of US$3.1trn. There are three significant stages in
objective was the same although
the development of the ASEAN the countries had different names
Formed in 1967, ASEAN replaced the countries’ automotive industries: for their policies. Thailand named
Association of Southeast Asia (ASA),
which had been formed by the • The first stage was in the 1960s- its policy the ‘local content
70s. The countries were less requirement regulation’ where all
Philippines, Thailand, and the
developed and the main economic car makers who want to produce
Federation of Malaya (now part of
activity was agriculture-based, with cars in Thailand had to procure
Malaysia) in 1961.
high labour availability. Exports parts locally. In Malaysia the policy
In 1992 the ASEAN countries signed were dominated by natural was called the ‘mandatory deletion
the ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA) resources and agricultural policy’, where they tried to delete
agreement aimed at increasing products. The countries did not parts from the CKD list and produce
ASEAN's competitive edge as a have experience in manufacturing. them in the country in order to
production base in the world market They looked to attract FDI by obtain benefits from the
through the elimination, within ASEAN, offering investment incentives and government. That was the first time
of tariffs and non-tariff barriers; and protecting the domestic market. All that the local supporting industry
attracting more foreign direct the countries pursued an import emerged in the country.
investment (FDI) to ASEAN. substitution strategy and the
industry was characterised mainly
by CKD assembly.
Africa Automotive Forum| Summary Report 11
• The third stage was from 2000 International Multipurpose Nissan is likely to do so too in
onwards. The year 2000 marked Vehicle) project is the biggest future. Thailand has become the
the period of free trade and trade production hub in Thailand, the engineering hub for the region.
integration that has become second largest is in Indonesia When a new model is being
stronger among ASEAN countries. followed by South Africa and developed in ASEAN, the
Although all the countries adopted Argentina. This intra-regional trade development is likely to take place
the same policies, they achieved and division of labour developed in Thailand.
different outcomes. Thailand Thailand into an export-oriented
ranked number 11 in the country.
production of automobiles, Lessons learnt from ASEAN
During the 1990s – 2000s,
producing 2.1 million cars;
Thailand experienced a trade 1. Plugging into Global Value
Indonesia ranked number 17,
deficit. By 2011 it had a trade Chains (GVCs) can enhance
producing 1.2 million vehicles; and
surplus of US$13m, driven by a competitiveness. Thailand
Malaysia ranked number 24,
trade surplus in the automotive developed from an agricultural
producing 0.5 million vehicles.
sector. More recently, incentives country to expanding light
Among the three, Thailand did not
for environmentally-friendly industry and then became a
have a national car policy.
vehicles have led Thailand, major exporter of automobiles
Indonesia and Malaysia to
2. Understanding and leveraging
promote new vehicles in the form
Supporting factors for strong comparative advantages has
of electric vehicles (EVs) and
regional value chain integration seen growth from low value-
vehicles that are more efficient in
(intra-regional trade) added activities to higher
fuel consumption. In Thailand the
value-added in the country and
1. Pressure from the WTO in the vehicles are called Eco-cars, and in
region
1990s. As a result of this Indonesia the vehicles form part of
pressure, trade integration the low cost green car project 3. Industrial and liberalisation
and intra-regional trade (LCGC). policies are complementary. It
became more and more is a matter of timing of when to
important for the ASEAN promote the industry and how
members. Thailand’s distinctive automotive to promote the linkage with
policy neighbouring countries. There
↓
is no one country that can
Thailand’s distinctive policy is aimed
2. Members agreed to abolish produce all cars. There is a
at creating a vibrant automotive
the local content regulation as need to rely on the
industry. The government’s
a result of pressure from the comparative advantage of
incentive initiatives such as the low
WTO. neighbouring countries in the
3% excise tax for pick-up trucks
region or outside the region.
↓ compared to the 25% excise tax on
normal cars creates sufficient
3. The Asian Financial Crisis in
demand for the pick-up truck.
1997 severely affected
Thailand and Indonesia. The
Therefore, car makers in Thailand “The automotive
can expand production and invest
devaluation of their currencies
in equipment and realise industry cannot
led to competition causing the
automotive industry to
economies of scale, creating
dynamic growth on the supply side.
develop without
develop.
The electric vehicles trend has seen government
↓ the government lower the excise
4. Southeast Asia was chosen as tax for Eco-cars to 12%, lower than intervention”
the passenger car charged at 25%, Professor Kriengkrai Techakanont;
a production hub for Japanese
making the Eco-car very popular Associate Professor, Faculty of
Car Manufacturers.
among Thai people. Economics, Thammasat University,
↓ Thailand
Thailand is not only a production,
5. Growth of global production base but there is evidence that it
network in SE Asia has moved up the value chain and
Thailand and Indonesia are now currently many companies invest in
leading production bases in research and design activity in
ASEAN. Toyota’s IMV (Innovative Thailand like Toyota, and Honda.
Africa Automotive Forum| Summary Report 12
Strategies to unlock the
economic benefits of RVCs in
the automotive industry in
Africa
The vision for Africa is to have assembly hubs in the South, East, West and North of Africa with countries in each region
participating in the value chain depending on their comparative advantage.
Africa: the final frontier for the Africa. In 2018, over 550 000 vehicles Morocco tops the ranking due to
automotive industry were registered in the country, more its robust outlook for production
than anywhere else on the continent. growth, low labour costs and
Africa's median age is below 20,8 while
With approximately 370 000 positive industry policy, making it
Europe's is over 40.9 The global
passenger vehicles sold per year, an attractive automotive market in
motorisation rate is 18010 vehicles per
South Africa accounts for more than the MENA region.
1 000 inhabitants, with Europe
40% of Africa’s passenger vehicle
(602),11 USA (830)12 and Australia The Moroccan automotive
market.15 South Africa has created a
(747)13 substantially higher; and Africa industry is expected to register a
unique automotive ecosystem
(44)14 significantly lower. Considering Compound Annual Growth Rate
supported by industry programmes
these factors, there is huge potential (CAGR) of over 7% during the
such as the Motor Industry
for automotive growth in Africa. forecast period (2020-25).18 FDI
Development Programme (MIDP) and
According to the AAAM, new vehicle has been continually increasing, as
the Automotive Production and
sales could grow from 1.1 million companies are attracted to the
Development Programme (APDP). The
today to 5 million in the medium- country’s favourable economic
South African Automotive Masterplan
term, dependent on the conditions, government support
(SAAM) now aims to double the
implementation of effective through initiatives such as tax
production capacity in South Africa in
automotive policies and development exemptions for the first five years,
the next 15 years.16
of a viable ecosystem. VAT exemptions, land purchase
The well-developed SAAM contributes subsidies, skilled workforce and
to the attractiveness and modern infrastructure.
Building an automotive ecosystem competitiveness of local industry by
Although South Africa and
offering incentives and support to
The plethora of fragmented, small Morocco’s current regulatory and
OEMs and suppliers.
automotive production facilities rather economic environments are
than a singular ecosystem across the Morocco was recently ranked first supportive, the industry needs to
continent appears to be the result of in the Middle East and North Africa develop the automotive ecosystem
ineffective automotive policies, with (MENA) region in the Fitch and take advantage of
only Morocco and South Africa Solutions’ Autos Production opportunities across the continent.
standing out as having fully fledged Risk/Reward Index.17 According to
industries. Fitch Solutions, Morocco’s overall
Autos Production Risk/Reward
South Africa is home to Africa’s most
Index (RRI) score was 46.7 out of a
advanced automotive industry. Seven
possible 100. The global average is
major Original Equipment
50.0 and the higher the score the
Manufacturers (OEMs) with
more attractive a market is.
operations in the country produce
more than 50% of all vehicles made in
Africa Automotive Forum| Summary Report 13
Driving regional integration in Africa 3. Not every African country is • The implementation of the
able to grow and industrialise a African Continental Free Trade
Industrialisation is a priority for
fully-fledged automotive Area (AfCFTA)23 agreement
Africa. The concept of RVCs proves
industry sector. Beyond allows for countries to import
useful in identifying opportunities
assembly hubs, there is a need parts from anywhere in Africa
for more integrated
to build a regional hub-and- duty-free e.g. component
industrialisation.19 Greater
spoke model which could, for makers that meet Rules of
regional integration supports
example, see Ghana becoming Origin (ROO) requirements
economic diversification and
the champion of West Africa, can sell components duty-free
draws together capacities from
reaching out to countries such such as South Africa selling to
different countries. RVCs in Africa
as Benin and Togo to redirect Ghana and Kenya.
have been suggested as one of the
some of the work in the value
means by which the continent • A concept note was prepared
chain to them.
could develop a viable automotive in relation to the Tripartite
ecosystem. RVCs in the automotive 4. Political will is required to Free Trade Area (TFTA)24 for a
sector have played a major role in implement effective regional Southern African
driving regional integration in automotive policy and develop Customs Union (SACU) – East
trade groupings such as Mercosur automotive manufacturing. African Community (EAC)
and ASEAN.20 motor vehicle strategy. This
5. A supportive policy environment
note outlines how the
with an emphasis on regional
automotive industries in the
integration is important. AAAM
Prerequisites for the establishment SACU and the EAC would be
is developing the Pan-African
of a network of RVCs in the integrated through value
Auto Pact (PAAP) which aims to
chains.
automotive industry connect potential automotive
powerhouses to trade quickly • The National Automotive
1. Developing a viable ‘automotive
and easily. PAAP can potentially Industry Development Plan
space’ means having a larger
create a market of 5 million (NAIDP)25 is intended to drive
regional market into which a
new vehicles a year.21 Current the comprehensive
smaller country can integrate
regional policies in place development of the
its production. This helps to
include: automotive industry in the
create the economies of scale
long run and make Nigeria a
required for competitive • The Ghana Automotive
regional powerhouse in the
manufacturing. Development Policy22 is aimed
industry.
at making Ghana a fully
2. African countries need to
integrated and competitive • In 2019 the Economic
diversify their economies
industrial hub for the Community of West African
through boosting their
automotive industry in the States (ECOWAS) executive
competitive manufacturing
West Africa sub-region. met to consider the
capability. By assessing their
Volkswagen has been one of Automotive Industry Policy
comparative advantages,
the first movers to invest in Framework (AIPF)26 which is
countries will specialise in the
Ghana as a result of a designed to promote
product/s for which they have a
supportive policy. investment across the supply
relative, if not an absolute
chain, increasing domestic
advantage.
vehicle and parts
manufacturing in the region.
Africa Automotive Forum| Summary Report 14
6. The development of components 10. Facilitation of required industry
manufacturing by supporting investments, and promotion of A value chain
lower tiers, aftermarket demand industry benefits to unlock
and extending manufacturing to funding from governments, the
analysis
additional countries in the value World Bank, the G20, EU, IFC, recognises that a
chain through regional Afreximbank and other key
distribution of production. funders. country may
7. Coordinated implementation of 11. Homologation of vehicles where achieve optimal
skills development interventions new vehicle models, built up
that empower manufacturing vehicles and modifications of specialisation not
through manufacturing specific vehicles conform to compulsory
curricula, incubation skills specifications and standards. by producing
programmes, awareness in
technical schools, developing
12. Development of a regional finished products,
business case from a techno-
engineering institutions,
economic assessment of the but by
partnering with established
institutions, developing skillsets
industry which then informs policy
framework formulation and
participating in a
for Tiers 3 and 4 and the
aftermarket.
lobbying. chain of shared
8. Introduction of incentives that
13. Development of global value production with
chains for established automotive
attract investment in Africa’s
automotive industry.
players to redirect production other countries.27
capacity globally to avoid regional
9. Improvement of logistics competition.
connectivity, infrastructure,
14. Job creation through increased
security, transparency and
production capacity.
combatting corruption between
countries, and creating a network
of logistics hubs.
Africa Automotive Forum| Summary Report 15
Regional Value Chains in the
automotive sector are viable in Africa
RVCs in the automotive industry in
Africa require a coordinated, aligned,
continent-wide approach that takes
into account existing and potential
strengths and also addresses issues of
equity and barriers to trade.
It is important to work with regional
governments, and develop a network
of stakeholders committed to unlock
the economic potential and promote
the industry across the continent.
Africa Automotive Forum| Summary Report 16
Driving affordability and
mobility solutions
The automotive industry currently Country partnerships in value chains
plays a disproportionately small role in and vehicle purchasing from ‘hub
manufacturing sectors across Africa. countries’ are key to regional
There is a need to develop effective alignment. Regional collaboration is
automotive policies and ecosystems, significant in facilitating the required
as the industry could also provide scale needed to enable global
significant economic benefits. competitiveness.
The continent has a growing Furthermore, the issue of imported
population, growing rates of used vehicles and ‘grey imports’
urbanisation and low motorisation should be handled responsibly.
rates. In 2019, Africa’s new vehicle Imported used vehicles and ‘grey
sales accounted for only 1.3% of global imports’ constitute over 80% of the
demand despite its population number of vehicles in Africa. An
contributing 17.2% to the global effective automotive ecosystem can
population.28 reduce this to more acceptable levels
that enables integrated automotive
To develop a sustainable automotive manufacturing without harming
industry, Africa needs advanced consumers and without major
manufacturing capability, technology, disruption to the existing used vehicle
deep value chains and the market.
development of skills.
The aim should be for the used
vehicle market to be supplied through
used vehicles that were initially
produced within the continent.
Africa Automotive Forum| Summary Report 17
Key factors to drive mobility and accurate current and future values of Infrastructure
affordability new vehicles in markets with a large
population of imported used vehicles. Infrastructure is a necessary
A number of factors are critical to component for mobility. In many
driving affordability and mobility in The formalisation of financial African countries, infrastructure has
the continent. By addressing these channels in countries is seen as an not been well-maintained and in some
factors and finding solutions to the important part of improving access to instances, the required infrastructure
associated challenges, great strides finance. In addition, mobility for mobility does not exist at all. It is
can be made towards creating a well- suppliers, such as Uber, are important to note that poor
functioning continental automotive collaborating with prospective drivers infrastructure is unfavourable for the
industry. to create financing packages that automotive market as it can increase
offer payment options at rates below the total cost of ownership of a vehicle
the market rate. Several banks such by significantly increasing vehicle
Financing as Standard Bank are also working maintenance costs.
with mobility suppliers such as Uber
The growth of the automotive by providing financing services for Looking forward, the building and
industry in the continent is prospective drivers in securing maintenance of infrastructure should
dependent on a sufficiently-sized financing.29 also take the future of vehicles into
market for original equipment consideration. For example, electric
manufacturers (OEMs) to sell locally In Nigeria, the government has looked vehicles (EVs) require a sufficient
produced new vehicles into the global to collaborate with automotive rollout of charging stations.
market. Used imported vehicles are associations, transport associations
and automotive users to improve the In addition, due to the positioning of
generally charged at a lower price and batteries in many EVs (i.e. underneath
therefore remain a constraint to new condition of the vehicle population
through buy-back schemes that allow the car), poorly maintained roads and
vehicle sales. It is therefore important roadway features such as speed
that vehicle financing solutions are operators to sell their older vehicles to
the government.30 This provides humps could result in costly damage.
introduced to ensure affordability of It is imperative that investment in
new vehicles and thus improve new operators with significant funds to
purchase new vehicles that are in adequate infrastructure goes hand in
vehicle sales. hand with other actions that are taken
better condition.
Access to vehicle finance remains a to drive affordable mobility.
significant barrier in Africa. In many In the long term, the development of
countries, interest rates are high, local automotive industries can assist
resulting in expensive payment terms with providing access to finance. If Technology
for consumers. This often leads to vehicles are produced locally and can
consumers purchasing imported used be sold into the local markets as used The rise of e-hailing platforms offering
vehicles or taking up alternative cars at some point, there is an increased access to mobility for
financing options such as unsecured opportunity to develop schemes to consumers, as well as more affordable
loans. Imported used vehicles also decrease interest rates and provide mobility, have made it clear that
create challenges for banks as it is favourable payment terms and technology is an important enabler to
difficult to determine the most guaranteed future values for new mobility.
vehicles.
Africa Automotive Forum| Summary Report 18
In many African countries, laws and The emergence of innovative business Due to the availability of sustainable
regulations were enacted prior to the models will be the result of an energy sources, the future of vehicles
surge of mobile phone use and iterative process which will require also provides opportunity in Africa. A
associated internet connectivity. dedication by the automotive industry number of African countries have
These laws and regulations must in order to bring the right efficient abundant sources of sustainable
facilitate new types of mobility as mobility services as well as internal energy which can be used to power
consumers seek to experience mobility processes to deliver an affordable and alternative power vehicles such as EVs.
differently using mobile phones. In accessible mobility market in Africa. Ghana in particular is looking to
addition to this, technology can be introduce EVs to stimulate demand for
used to improve the mobility excess gas-generated electricity. In
experience, for example, by using data Future of vehicles addition, the use of sustainable energy
to ensure better city planning and to power vehicles can drastically
organisation. Although the African automotive improve trade deficits for countries
industry is still largely nascent, the that currently import petroleum and
future of vehicles and smart mobility is diesel.
Innovation significant for its long-term ambitions,
more so as OEMs move towards As governments address used and
The African continent and various environmentally friendly vehicles, and ‘grey imports’, emission standards are
African countries face their individual towards being more aligned to global also expected to start to align with
set of mobility challenges. Therefore, a emission standards. international standards. OEMs are
copy-and-paste approach from other keen to provide vehicles that align to
geographies may not be applicable. If production of such vehicles is to be the demand for vehicles that meet
Innovation plays a key role in undertaken in the continent, this shift international standards. In Rwanda,
identifying challenges in specific will require more advanced Volkswagen (VW) has already
geographies and developing new manufacturing technology. This kind of introduced a small fleet of EVs.32
solutions such as business models and manufacturing technology and Toyota has also indicated its interest in
financing solutions that address those capability will also be required for the supplying its hybrid vehicles into the
country-specific challenges. maintenance of vehicles. While a continent when conditions become
vehicle produced in Europe or the US suitable and possibly move towards
It is important for major players in the in recent years can be easily assembling these vehicles in Africa in
mobility industry to support and maintained locally, this may not be the future.33
facilitate innovation that seeks to case for vehicles that may be
address the different mobility produced in the coming years, which
challenges in Africa. For example, in may be electrical and may need smart
2019, Bosch held a competition for mobility to operate.
start-ups that looked to solve Africa’s
mobility problem.31 This initiative
helped to understand the dynamics
around smart mobility in the region,
problems that need solving and
identifying partners to collaborate
with to develop solutions.
Africa Automotive Forum| Summary Report 19
Collaboration Collaboration between countries and seen in the long run for OEMs that
regions develop on-the-ground knowledge in
Given the market size and scale the countries where they operate.
requirements for a thriving The scale required for a fully-fledged
With the African Continental Free
automotive industry, collaboration is automotive industry means that very
Trade Area (AfCFTA) currently gaining
key in creating attractive investment few countries on the continent can
momentum, this investment seems
opportunities, functional regional create a viable market individually.
justified, more so as the AfCFTA is
value chains, access to mobility and This presents opportunities for
expected to create greater
safety, as well as environmentally collaboration in order to create an
opportunities for the automotive
friendly vehicles. effective ecosystem.
industry in the continent.
Countries can collaborate in the
manufacturing of vehicles through a
Government and private sector hub-and-spoke model. In this manner, Learnings from Rwanda
The collaboration between countries within the model can benefit
as they all participate in the Rwanda has had a successful
governments and private sector actors partnership with VW and Siemens. As
(OEMs and component production of vehicles, in component
manufacturing or vehicle assembly. part of VW’s mobility programme, the
manufacturers) plays a vital role in the partnership between the two has seen
development of an automotive This ensures that some form of value the opening of an assembly plant in
industry. Governments understand the addition takes place within each Kigali, as well as the introduction of a
total cost of used vehicles such as country and creates deep regional new fleet of fuel efficient cars, EVs,
pollution, accidents, and missed value chains. This approach requires ride hailing and corporate car
opportunities for local value creation. trade facilitation, alignment of sharing.34
Similarly, it requires an understanding standards and supplier development
that transformation in the automotive programmes to develop locally The collaboration between the
industry requires manufacturing manufactured parts. Trade facilitation Rwanda government and VW was vital
capacity and the creation of will also play a significant role in in creating an attractive environment
automotive value chains. opening up a large market for vehicle for investment. With Rwanda not
producers to sell their vehicles as they having a large enough market to
There is a need to create an attractive attract OEMs to invest, the
and enabling political and policy can now sell vehicles at a regional
level. government of Rwanda sought to
environment in the continent along position the country as a hub in the
with incentives that will attract OEMs. Countries can also collaborate through region. As the hub, Rwanda will enable
This includes collaboration between the creation of a multidisciplinary OEMs to expand their operations and
stakeholders around conditions and competence centre in sub-Saharan offerings to the East African
incentives that need to be put in place Africa. This centre should help to Community which has quite a large
for OEMs. This may include a develop the capabilities required to population in excess of 170 million.
commitment to certain infrastructure actively participate at various levels of
development, policy certainty on how the value chain. Although this may The absence of infrastructure, such as
used vehicle imports will be addressed initially be challenging to justify given well-connected roads and electricity
and financial incentives such as tax new vehicle sales, the rewards will be supply, makes it rather challenging to
holidays. incentivise investors. Therefore, there
has been a wide focus to ensure that
Africa Automotive Forum| Summary Report 20
Contacts
infrastructure planned for the next Dr Martyn Davies
seven years is in place to attract more Managing Director: Emerging Markets and Africa
players within the mobility space. Africa Automotive Leader
Rwanda has also designed financial Dean: Alchemy by Deloitte
incentives to attract OEMs. For Deloitte Africa
example, companies that make
[email protected]investments exceeding US$50m
qualify for corporate tax holidays. Hannah Marais
Associate Director: Africa Insights Leader
Driving mobility and affordability on Deloitte Africa
the continent will not occur
[email protected]automatically. To enable this, the
creation of a well-functioning
Michaela Mahes
ecosystem is required. This
Senior Manager: Alchemy by Deloitte
necessitates active participation of all
players within the ecosystem. It is
[email protected]important to diversify and not only
focus on one initiative that is Luke Andrews
implemented by government and Senior Manager: Strategy
supported by stakeholders. Rather, Deloitte Consulting
there is a need for participation and
[email protected]implementation by all stakeholders.
Melainey Mpofu
Achieving the automotive Marketing Manager: Automotive Industry
development, mobility and Deloitte Africa
affordability vision for Africa will not
[email protected]be by chance. It will require
courageous leadership and active
Authors:
willingness to collaborate in the public
and private sectors across the Author: Tsheki Kolobe
continent. Senior Consultant: Strategy
Deloitte Consulting
[email protected] Author: Taparendava Tsokodayi
Senior Consultant
Deloitte Consulting
[email protected] Author: Melainey Mpofu
Marketing Manager: Automotive Industry
Deloitte Africa
[email protected] Masego Ntsoane
Junior Consultant: Africa Insights
Deloitte Africa
[email protected]
The Africa Automotive Forum was delivered with the support of
Afreximbank, JETRO, VDA, and Afrika-Verein
Africa Automotive Forum| Summary Report 21
Endnotes
1 Automotive Industry Export Council(AIEC), 2020. Automotive Export 19 Trade& Industry Policy Strategies (TIPS), 2020. Regional value chains
Manual 2020. Available [Online]. and industrialisation: The Southern African experience. Available [Online],
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2 GhanaWeb, 2020. Automotive Development Policy has potential to regional-value-chains-and-industrialisation-the-southern-african-
maximize car industry – VW Ghana CEO. Available [Online]. experience
https://www.ghanaweb.com/GhanaHomePage/business/Automotive- 20
Development-Policy-has-potential-to-maximize-car-industry-VW-Ghana- SA-TIED, 2019. Deepening regional integration in Southern Africa.
CEO-1024717 Available [Online], https://sa-
tied.wider.unu.edu/sites/default/files/pdf/SA-TIED-RB2019-1-Deepening-
3ASEAN Briefing, 2019. The ASEAN Automobile Industry: Top Destinations regional-integration-in-Southern-Africa.pdf
for Manufacturers. Available [Online]. 21 Engineering News, 2020. An African automotive industry is starting to
https://www.aseanbriefing.com/news/aseans-automobile-industry/ emerge. Available [Online],
https://www.engineeringnews.co.za/article/an-african-automotive-
4 Uber, 2019. Uber opens new Center of Excellence in Clark. Available industry-is-starting-to-emerge-2020-04-10
[Online]. https://www.uber.com/newsroom/uber-coe-
22Ghana Ministry of Trade & Industry, 2020. The Ghana Automotive
clark/#:~:text=With%20an%20initial%20investment%20of,region%2C%20a
nd%20around%20the%20world. Development Policy Available [Online],
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5Business Insider Africa, 2020. Volkswagen unveils first set of locally Government%20for,the%20West%20Africa%20sub%2Dregion
assembled cars in Ghana. Available [Online]. 23 Engineering News, 2020. An African automotive industry is starting to
https://africa.businessinsider.com/local/lifestyle/volkswagen-assembles-
emerge. Available [Online],
models-in-ghana-here-is-a-comparison-of-prices-to-determine/dqvd670
https://www.engineeringnews.co.za/article/an-african-automotive-
industry-is-starting-to-emerge-2020-04-10
6 Africa
Automotive Forum, 2020. Introduction presented by Dave Coffey,
24 Tralac,2020. How viable are auto component regional value chains in
AAAM CEO
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Thammasat University, Thailand
25NADDC, 2020. Automotive Plan. Available [Online],
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26 The Economist Intelligence Unit, 2019. ECOWAS considers Automotive
age-in-africa-by-county/
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9 Worldometers, 2020. EuropePopulation. Available [Online], https://country.eiu.com/article.aspx?articleid=618072645&Country=Nigeri
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5years
27Tralac,2020. How viable are auto component regional value chains in
10 Moneyweb, 2018. Africa: The final frontier for the automotive industry. Africa? Available [Online], https://www.tralac.org/blog/article/14363-
Available [Online], https://www.moneyweb.co.za/in-depth/africa- how-viable-are-auto-component-regional-value-chains-in-
focus/africa-the-final-frontier-for-the-automotive-industry/ africa.html#_ftn4
11 Statista,
2020. Motorization rate in selected countries as of 2018. 28Automotive Industry Export Council (AIEC), 2020. Automotive Export
Available [Online], Manual 2020. Available [Online].
https://www.statista.com/statistics/610820/motorization-rate-in-selected- https://www.aiec.co.za/downloads/AutomotiveExportManual2020.pdf
countries/
29IOL, 2017. Standard Bank secures milestone finance deal with Ford.
12 Ibid.
Available [Online]. https://www.iol.co.za/business-
13 Ibid. report/companies/standard-bank-secures-milestone-finance-deal-with-
ford-11566221
14Moneyweb, 2018. Africa: the final frontier for the automotive industry.
30 The Guardian, 2020. Nigerians can own a car with government support,
Available [Online], https://www.moneyweb.co.za/in-depth/africa-
focus/africa-the-final-frontier-for-the-automotive-industry/ finance scheme. Available [Online].
https://guardian.ng/features/nigerians-can-own-a-car-with-government-
15 The Department of Trade, Industry and Competition (DTIC), 2020. support-finance-scheme/
Investing in South Africa 2020 Roadmap. Available
[Online],http://www.investsa.gov.za/wp- 31Bosch, 2019. Bosch Africa announces the Smart Mobility Competition
content/uploads/2019/11/Investor-Roadmap-2020-Online-version.pdf winners. Available [Online]. https://www.bosch.africa/news-and-
16 Deloitte,Building Automotive Manufacturing Ecosystems in Africa. stories/bosch-africa-announces-the-smart-mobility-competition-winners/
Available [Online],
32 Reuters, 2019. Volkswagen brings electric cars to Rwanda for ride-hailing
https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/za/Documents/Consu
mer_Industrial_Products/za-AAAM-World-Economic-Forum-(WEF)- service. Available [Online]. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-rwanda-
Affiliated-Automotive-Executive-Breakfast-Summary-Report.pdf volkswagen-idUSKBN1X81UN
17 Yabiladi,2020. Morocco was recently ranked first in the Middle East and 33Reuters, 2019. Toyota sees new business opportunity in leveraging
North Africa region . Available [Online], hybrid tech. Available [Online]. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-
https://en.yabiladi.com/articles/details/97708/morocco-s-automotive- toyota-hybrid-exclusive-idUSKCN1RO0W6
industry-leads-mena.html
34Engineering News, 2019. Volkswagen launches pilot electric mobility
18 Mordor Intelligence, 2020. Morocco automotive industry outlook -
project in Rwanda. Available [Online].
growth, trends, and forecast (2020 - 2025). Available [Online],
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https://www.mordorintelligence.com/industry-reports/morocco-
electric-mobility-project-in-rwanda-2019-10-30
automotive-industry-outlook
Africa Automotive Forum| Summary Report 22
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Africa Automotive Forum| Summary Report 23